Last Tuesday I took down two SE Tournaments on FanDuel for over $3500 profit. I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a 14 game main slate with some serious weather concerns. We have 9 umpires released with a few being part of the games that need monitoring. Stay updated in Mark’s channel tonight.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

STL@WAS Adam Wainwright (R)/Anibal Sanchez (R)

Gary Cederstrom 16.91 K/9 6.49 BB/9 .253 AVG 9.13 R/9

Cederstrom extends the edges on both sides of the plate. He is fair up and tight on the lower third. This isn’t great for Wainwright’s hook, but I expect the extra inch on the edges to make this a neutral outcome. Anibal Sanchez should see a slight boost when he tries to establish his cutter away to righties.

OAK@BOS Aaron Brooks (R)/Rick Porcello (R)

Tom Hallion 16.37 K/9 6.65 BB/9 .255 AVG 9.13 R/9

Tom Hallion has a consistent zone that is pretty tight on most of the edges. He will extend some away to both righties and lefties. Overall, he should slightly favor hitter’s tonight in a game where the cold temps should offset any gain. Play this game straight up.

CIN@NYM Luis Castillo (R)/Jason Vargas (L)

Jerry Meals 16.33 K/9 6.69 BB/9 .246 AVG 8.63 R/9

Meals has a tight and inconsistent zone. He doesn’t call the low strike often. Castillo has been relying on swing and miss stuff out of the zone all year, so this shouldn’t be much of an issue for him. The matchup is a bigger concern. This could also be a rough spot for Vargas against Suarez and Puig. Consider using the Reds top of the order as a strong 3-4 man stack.

SD@ATL Chris Paddack (R)/Julio Teheran (R)

Jordan Baker 15.99 K/9 6.87 BB/9 .259 AVG 9.89 R/9

This isn’t a good fit for either arm. Baker lacks consistency and will squeeze the edges. Teheran will need to continue to rely on weak contact in the zone to avoid real trouble tonight. Paddack has the edge from being an unfamiliar arm to the Braves, but the ump won’t be of any help tonight. With the temps in the 80’s there’s an uphill battle for either to have a good night, but they do have the arm talent to do it if you want to take a shot in large GPPs at low ownership. I’m leaning more towards stacking the Braves and using some of the value Padres though, especially on FanDuel. Ty France has real power upside as a value 2B tonight hitting 5th for the Padres.

LAD@SF Walker Buehler (R)/Drew Pomeranz (L)

Mike Winters 16.67 K/9 6.70 BB/9 .261 AVG 10.02 R/9

It’s really hard for me to erase the memory of Buehler’s 0-2 hanging slider he threw to Javy Baez to ruin his last outing. Combine that with his low K% for the year and I’m not utilizing the pitcher’s park tonight. Winter’s is consistent and fair on the edges if you want to go there, but I want to wait and see the K% get back to ’18 levels.

HOU@MIN Gerrit Cole (R)/Michael Pineda (R)

Bill Miller 17.23 K/9 5.72 BB/9 .248 AVG 9.15 R/9

Miller is a top 5 pitcher’s ump and has one of the widest zones we can find. He also doesn’t mind calling the high strike and is more than fair at the bottom of the zone. We couldn’t ask for a better fit for Cole tonight, so if we can eliminate the weather concerns before lock I’m going to be over the field with Cole tonight despite the Twin’s power upside.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 30th