On Tuesday I took down two SE Tournaments on FanDuel for over $3500 profit. I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a 6 game main slate with all umpires released. There are no real weather concerns.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

MIL@NYM Brandon Woodruff (R)/Noah Syndergaard (R)

Adam Hamari 17.33 K/9 5.95 BB/9 .233 AVG 8.19 R/9

Hamari has a wide zone particularly on the right side of the plate. This is a clear bump for Woodruff and Syndergaard if you want to get on board with either in spite of the matchups. One of my main concerns for this game is the wind. Right now it looks like the wind may be blowing in or out around 10 mph at different points in the game. If we can get a better grasp of this wind I’d endorse Woodruff as a top value arm and Noah as a nice GPP play with the wind blowing in. If it’s blowing out for a majority of the night I’d be more careful here.

LAA@KC Jaime Barria (R) Cam Bedrosian- Opener/Jorge Lopez (R)

Jerry Layne 16.37 K/9 6.16 BB/9 .258 AVG 9.46 R/9

Layne earns his neutral grade, and it’s tough to get excited about any of the arms in this game with Bedrosian being used as an opener.

COL@ATL Jon Gray (R)/Mike Foltynewicz (R)

Dana DeMuth 15.95 K/9 6.45 BB/9 .256 AVG 9.45 R/9

This is a downgrade for both arms. DeMuth has an inconsistent zone and doesn’t give much on the edges. I’d be careful here with either arm, but the raw talent upside leaves them both as GPP only flyers.

CHC@ARI Yu Darvish (R)/Zack Godley (R)

Bill Welke 16.50 K/9 6.45 BB/9 .256 AVG 9.45 R/9

Welke is inconsistent and favors the right side of the plate. We should see missed calls on both sides and possibly some chirping from the benches throughout this game. It’s a real concern for a guy like Godley who lacks command and will have to rely entirely on the Cubs expanding their zones. Overall, I want to see a larger sample for Darvish until I can trust him again and the focus in this game should be on the bats. A full game stack is in play.

TEX@SEA Mike Minor (L)/Mike Leake (R)

Scott Barry 16.34 K/9 6.2 BB/9 .254 AVG 9.47 R/9

Barry grades out as tight on the left side of the plate. He’s fair up or down or on the right edge. Overall, he should have no real impact on either arm as I expect any missed calls on the left side to be offset by some right side generosity. Play this game straight up.

PIT@LAD Joe Musgrove (R)/Clayton Kershaw (L)

Bruce Dreckman 16.65 K/9 6.77 BB/9 .244 AVG 9.08 R/9

Fair zone with consistency, play this game exactly as planned.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 27th