Last night I took down two SE Tournaments on FanDuel for over $3500 profit. I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a 7 game main slate with all umpires released. There are no real weather concerns.

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

MIN@HOU Kohl Stewart (R)/Justin Verlander (R)

Ed Hickox 16.88 K/9 5.98 BB/9 .252 AVG 8.54 R/9

Hickox extends the zone well below the knees. He’s a great umpire for Verlander’s changeup low in the zone and for his hooks and sliders away to righties. Even though the Twins are only deploying 3 righties I’ll still have a lot of exposure to JV tonight.

DET@BOS Tyson Ross (R)/Eduardo Rodriguez (L)

Alfonso Marquez 15.21 K/9 7.08 BB/9 .259 AVG 9.35 R/9

Marquez will give the edges sometimes, but he is very tight up and down. Only elite swing and miss arms can avoid the squeeze from Marquez. I’m fading both arms tonight and a game stack is in play. With the cooler air I’ll probably stay away from full 5 man stacks, but I like pairing Mookie and JD with value rookie Michael Chavis.

LAD@CHC Walker Buehler (R)/Cole Hamels (L)

Chad Whitson 17.46 K/9 6.64 BB/9 .238 AVG 8.56 R/9

Whitson gives the edges and calls more strikes per game than the average ump. He should help Buehler some in the lower part of the zone as well. It’s a boost for both arms especially if you were confident in Buehler tonight.

CWS@BAL Ervin Santana (R)/John Means (L)

Chad Fairchild 16.55 K/9 6.83 BB/9 .253 AVG 9.24 R/9

Fairchild is a little inconsistent but overall he earns his neutral grade. Play this game straight up with all of the bats in play on both sides. Stacking cheap Orioles like Stevie Wilkerson and Rio Ruiz allows you to pay up for the expensive ChiSox Anderson or Moncada.

NYY@LAA CC Sabathia (L)/Felix Pena (R) (Cam Bedrosian Opener)

Chris Guccione 17.36 K/9 6.76 BB/9 .256 AVG 9.47 R/9

CC is chasing his 3000th K tonight and he has a nice umpire for the occasion. Guccione has a wide zone and will give the backdoor cutter. I recommend being at least over the field on CC with 10-20% exposure. The Angels low K% is the only thing keeping me from having even more ownership on him. I also plan on stacking the Yankees lefties against Felix Pena.

ARI/PIT Merrill Kelly (R)/Jordan Lyles (R)

Greg Gibson 16.37 K/9 6.50 BB/9 .251 AVG 9.1 R/9

Fair zone with consistency, play this game exactly as planned.

PHI@NYM Vince Velasquez (R)/Jason Vargas (L)

Brian Gorman 16.51 K/9 6.53 BB/9 .265 AVG 9.46 R/9

Gorman favors the away strike but overall shouldn’t have much impact on this game. Stack the Phils righties with Harper against Vargas.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 24th