I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day, you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.

Daily Umpire Impact

We have a 13 game main slate on DK tonight with seven umpires released. There could be some light showers in PIT/NYM/STL but they don’t look to be at risk for PPD. For the first time this season, all of the umpires released grade out as neutral tonight.

K/9

We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”

Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.

Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.

“Hit Mitts”

There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.

“Box Callers”

On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.

The Squeeze

(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)

(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)

KC@TB Homer Bailey (R)/Ryne Stanek (R)- Opener

Brian O’Nora 16.32 K/9 6.21 BB/9 .244 AVG 8.88 R/9

MIN@HOU Michael Pineda (R)/Wade Miley (L)

Angel Hernandez 16.73 K/9 5.9 BB/9 .251 AVG 8.61 R/9

WAS@COL Patrick Corbin (L)/Jeff Hoffman (R)

Jerry Layne 16.37 K/9 6.16 BB/9 .258 AVG 9.46 R/9

CWS@BAL Ivan Nova (R)/Andrew Cashner (R)

Kerwin Danley 16.53 K/9 6.29 BB/9 .258 AVG 9.24 R/9

NYY@LAA Domingo German (R)/Chris Stratton (R)

Bill Welke 16.5 K/9 6.82 BB/9 .262 AVG 9.7 R/9

ARI/PIT Luke Weaver (R)/Trevor Williams (R)

Gerry Davis 16.27 K/9 6.91 BB/9 .242 AVG 8.73 R/9

PHI@NYM Zach Eflin (R)/Zack Wheeler (R)

Scott Barry 16.34 K/9 6.20 BB/9 .254 AVG 9.46 R/9

Breakdown

On a large slate with no clear cut options on the mound, we need to be careful to not overthink the process of pitcher selection. Today is the first time we’ve had all umpires falling within the neutral range of 16.2 and 16.8 K/9. This neutrality across the board makes our decisions easier tonight. When we look at the low ceilings on some of the cheaper pitching options today it makes sense to chase strikeouts in spite of matchups on this slate. Domingo German, Zack Wheeler, and Patrick Corbin are the only three arms I’m using tonight. They aren’t prohibitively expensive and a mediocre outing from these guys will likely match a good outing from the rest of the player pool. I don’t see any need to go beyond these three arms, and if you are scared to roster lefties against the Rockies in Coors then German/Wheeler is the way to go. Wheeler’s throwing as hard as he ever has, even topping his 98-99 MPH ceiling when he was in high school ten years ago. Corbin/Wheeler is my favorite pairing in tournaments because of the Angels low K%, but I like all three combinations.

MLB “Daily Umpire Impact” Advice for DFS DraftKings/FanDuel/Yahoo April 23rd