Had a great night on Tuesday winning the $100 SE Tournament on DraftKings for 5K! I’m Bowerman-PickleTheBeast, and I’m a new contributor to the DFS Army this season. Click that link to find me on Twitter. My analytical focus is in umpire analysis plus swing breakdowns. In order to get our strategy every single day you need to be a VIP inside the DFS Army.
Daily Umpire Impact
We have a 5 game main slate tonight with three out of five umpires released. Chicago has changed the start time to try and beat the rain. The game should play, but stay updated in chat tonight.
K/9
We use K/9 as a reliable and quick identifier of a hitter or pitcher friendly umpire, but there are many stats to dig deeper into the matchups. Some umpires are better for power pitchers and some for guys with finesse, based on the types of zones they call. We take one more step in the breakdowns by looking at how each pitcher’s arsenal fits his umpire. Anyone that missed the introductory articles you can read about K/9 and what we are looking for below. Everyone else you should scroll further and look at “The Squeeze.”
Of the hundred or so umpires there is a significant difference in the number of strikeouts they call per game. On the low side of the spectrum, we see umps averaging just 15 K/9, while the top pitcher’s umpires approach 18. The real impact of K/9 is not the actual two or three strikeout difference between the extremes. The real effects are less quantifiable but more significant on the game.
Umps that give the edges can make or break an outing for a pitcher. Guys that don’t generate a lot of swinging strikes need to keep their offerings in the low slugging areas around the plate to be successful. If a guy gets none of these calls, then he has to attack the heart of the plate where he is going to get lit up. This “squeeze” is what we are after when we are looking for hitters to stack or arms to avoid. My main goal is to help you find those breakout stacks and to help you avoid a pitcher in danger. Identifying a pitcher with a great umpire is a bonus, but he still needs to be in the right spot. We don’t just play guys based on umpires, but using umpires daily will help you play your sharpest.
“Hit Mitts”
There are many stats/ideas we are going to explore in this article regularly. We will have heatmaps showing umpire and pitcher tendencies. We also will talk about the calling philosophies of umpires. For example, there are guys that call “hit mitts”. These guys will reward a pitcher for hitting a spot, with less concern for the actual location. Umpires that graduated from the Hunter Wendelstedt umpire school tend to follow this style.
“Box Callers”
On the other hand, we have guys that are pure box umps. Laz Diaz is a good example of this. He tends to ignore the catcher’s framing and will call his true zone as best he can. These guys definitely get the most looks from pitchers when they nail their spot and don’t get the call. That frustration can even impact their outing.
The Squeeze
(Neutral, Pitcher Friendly, Hitter Friendly) (color not based only on K/9)
(L/R Side of the Plate is referring to catcher’s view)
PIT@CHC Joe Musgrove (R)/Jose Quintana (L)
Mike Estabrook 17.81 K/9 5.69 BB/9 .238 AVG 8.28 R/9
Estabrook really favors the right side of the plate, especially with RHBs. He will give that away strike on righties as far as 4-6 inches off the plate. With the weather concerns lessened, Musgrove and Quintana are options tonight. I wouldn’t put them in my top two tonight, but if building more than 3-5 lineups, I would go there with Quintana who gets to face 8 righties. This is a downgrade for Pittsburgh’s offense overall, but the three-man stack of Marte, Cervelli, and Bell is still a solid value option. Cubs lefties should not have much of a problem with the zone either.
NYM@ATL Steven Matz (L)/Kevin Gausman (R)
Tim Timmons 16.98 K/9 6.52 BB/9 .252 AVG 9.56 R/9
Timmons has a tight zone on the corners with a little expansion on the lower third. He’s more likely to give the low strike than anywhere else. Overall, he’s consistent with his box calling style on the edges. This shouldn’t be too much of a problem for Gausman who should pitch to contact enough to minimize the impact, but it’s not an upgrade. Matz could really struggle if he gets the squeeze away to the right-handed Braves tonight. The Braves righties are one of my favorite stacks tonight with Albies, Acuna, Donaldson, and Camargo as a top value option.
TOR@BOS Aaron Sanchez (R)/Nathan Eovaldi (R)
Lance Barrett 16.89 K/9 5.90 BB/9 .245 AVG 8.87 R/9
Barrett has an inconsistent zone but tends to favor the guys on the mound. He slightly favors the right side of the plate over the left and he will give the away strike. I expect there to be a few missed calls overall and the outcome should be neutral with a slight advantage for Eovaldi. I would play this game straight up and play the arms and bats exactly as you were planning. Eovaldi will be one of my 3 highest owned arms tonight given the matchup and chilly weather. Play Mookie and Benintendi whenever you can fit them in.
Top Stacks
ATL
1) Ozzie Albies (S) 2B
2) Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
3) Freddie Freeman (L) 1B
4) Ronald Acuna, Jr. (R) OF
5) Nick Markakis (L) OF
6) Dansby Swanson (R) SS
7) Johan Camargo (S) 3B/OF
8) Tyler Flowers (R) C
Top Value/Contrarian Stack
PIT
2) Starling Marte (R) OF
3) Francisco Cervelli (R) C
4) Josh Bell (S) 1B
5) Jung-ho Kang (R) 3B/SS
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