One week until the Masters’ and the tour heads up to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
Last week was exciting with Kevin Kisner taking down Matt Kuchar in the final of the WGC – Dell Technologies Match Play Championship! While I wasn’t necessarily heavily invested in Kuchar, I had a fair share of Kisner and was way overweight on Francesco Molinari who ended up leading the field in DK points by a large margin. I was also pretty heavy on Lucas Bjerregaard who burst on to the scene for the first time in America beating Justin Thomas, Henrik Stenson, and Tiger Woods en route to a 4th place finish.
Match Play is always a tricky tournament to handicap because there is so much variance. I was on the right side of it this week, but I also think that’s partially because of how I built my lineups. While the sample size is small (only two years of tournaments on DK), we have seen in back to back years that only a minuscule (3 this year, one last year) amount of lineups had 4/4 semi-finalists in their lineup. I hate to draw conclusions from such a small sample size but it appears that focusing your build on two to three quadrants and giving yourself the best chance to get two or three players in the semi-finals which have shown in the two-year sample to be very profitable. Maybe next year we see more than .005% get 4/4 but until then I’ll likely keep building my lineups every year “sub-optimally” (according to DFS Golf Twitter) and I’ll likely keep profiting.
With the excitement of the Masters’ on the horizon, we have one last tournament to try and build our bankroll. It’s time to turn our focus to the Valspar Championship and get ready for the tough test that is TPC San Antonio!
Course Breakdown:
The Valero Texas Open takes place at TPC San Antonio. The players will be teeing it up at the Oaks Course which is a Greg Norman design. Norman notoriously designed this golf course while going through a divorce, which some say has made the layout much more difficult than some of his other designs! He also worked with his former son in law (daughter’s boyfriend) Sergio Garcia on it, which would annoy me enough to make it difficult too!
While we have seen winning scores here of -17, -12, -12, and -11 over the last four years, this course actually does play as one of the tougher courses on tour. The teeth of this course are difficult to hit fairways and greens, but really its the Texas wind. If the wind picks up (it will, its Texas), the conditions go from a difficult course to one that is an extreme challenge. The tour can make it play much easier with different tee locations and hole locations like they did last year in round 3 when the wind was down and the pins were easy. That round saw the course play a full stroke under par, whereas it played over par in all three of the other rounds.
Par 4 scoring will be essential here, with 8 par 4’s between 400 and 500 yards, as well as two super short drivable par 4’s that you NEED to score on. With Bermuda greens and Fairways, the players will be fairly comfortable on them. Especially those that teed it up last week in Austin or on the Florida swing. It’ll be a bit of a change for the guys coming from the Coralles championship. The greens here are fairly easy to read and typically run pretty slow. This benefits the good putters who typically get a boost putting on slow greens.
Hitting these greens (and staying on them) will be absolutely essential this week. The greens are pretty severely sloped and elevated and have runoffs that throw the ball into collection areas. Chipping the ball around the green here is very difficult. While I don’t want to target SG: Around the Green this week, I do want to look at who struggles there and avoid them.
Length is a benefit to a certain extent here, but the guys who really dominate are those with a great wedge game. Players hit 6% more shots than the average tour event from 125 yards and in. The other thing to target is guys who hit fairways. Putting yourself in position off the tee is essential to avoiding the big numbers.
If we look at the hole by hole statistics for TPC San Antonio we can see a few things.
- Eagles are hard to come by, and even birdies are difficult on some of these par 5’s. It’s rare to see a par 5 with an over-par scoring average, but this course has one in the 591-yard par 5 18th, and another that’s dang close, the 604-yard par 5 8th.
- While the course has 4 long par 3’s, it’s not necessarily important to score on them, it’s just more important to avoid a bogey or worse.
- Double Bogey or worse % is huge on this course. As a whole, there are 19% more double bogeys or worse than the average tour stop, and 28% worse bogey rate.
Overall, this is a difficult test for the players, but those that stay out of trouble can score when the conditions are right. The issue we see sometimes with these events that lead into a Major is that guys are trying to get their game right for it and there often isn’t a big correlation between the course they are playing and the one they are really focused on. Players who aren’t already in the Masters may actually have a bit of an edge from a mental standpoint this week.
Are you using the Domination Station to build lineups? If you are building more than 20 lineups and aren’t using it quit wasting your time! Check out the tutorial to learn how!
–>Domination Station PGA Tutorial <–
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Valspar Championship.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Interestingly, Jason Kokrak pops as the top value here this week, and along with Tony Finau, they are the top two by a fair margin. I hate continuing to pay increasingly salary for Kokrak as he just feels like a guy who should be 7.8k like he has been his entire career, but his play has just continued to be excellent. He’s 5/7 in cuts made here, and while he’s never really contended, I can see him popping on the leaderboard this week on the back of his excellent iron play.
Finau meanwhile was third here two years ago and is trying to find a little something in his game heading into the Masters’. He actually played some good golf last week shooting -4, +2, -2 but ran into the buzzsaws that were Kevin Kisner and Ian Poulter. I think he’s a really nice course fit here and should be in contention on the weekend if he drives the ball well.
Another guy I hate paying up for, but absolutely will this weekend is Jim Furyk. He’s playing some of the best golf of his career now that he doesn’t have Ryder Cup responsibilities, and not making it out of the group stage, while disappointing, will have him fresh for this week.
Rickie Fowler has been off for a bit, and while he hasn’t played great golf since the 2nd at the Honda, I actually think he’s a great course fit that will be underowned due to the price. DFS players typically tend to avoid the highest priced golfer, and in fields where there are some no names you’ll have to play in the lower salary range, I can see him being right around 10-11%. I’ll smash that if that’s the case.
Finally, Billy Horschel is a guy who looks like great value here as well. I like the price on him and he has been playing great golf recently, along with just playing really well here. He has three top 5’s in his last 6 trips here. Solid player to start a balanced build with.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score)is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
One thing you need to be careful for with any of these stats is watching for a small sample size. While Wyndham Clark, Seth Reeves, and Roberto Castro pop here in the top ten, their sample size of holes played is less than half of the next closest competitor. That doesn’t mean they are bad plays, just that we don’t have as much data on them.
Finau continues to show up as one of the best plays on the board, and so does Rickie Fowler. I love both this week and they are core plays for me (while I fade Matt Kuchar but more on that later)
Joaquin Niemann is a boom or bust play and after a solid performance at the Valspar, he had a dud in Punta Cana last week missing the cut and looking totally disinterested while missing a bunch of short putts. I don’t mind him here, he’s a great course fit, but he’s one of those guys that if he becomes a star on tour the questions on his mental state will be asked every week.
I really like Matt Jones here this week. The Aussies almost always play well here and he has backed that up over the years. He’s coming off a string of really good golf with back to back top 20’s, and at that price makes a ton of sense.
Finally, I do have some interest in J.T. Poston, he’s a little erratic with form sometimes, but has back to back top 30’s here, and is a great course fit.
Stat Cruncher:
With the stat cruncher in the research station back for a second week and a much different tournament on tap, I want to break down how I’m using it this week.
What the stat cruncher allows you to do is build your own model based on the statistics we have available. Currently, you can change the weighting and use any of the following statistics:
Odds to win
Field Rank: Last 15, Last 25, Last 50
Projected Round Score
Projected DraftKings Fantasy Points/Round
Projected Fanduel Fantasy Points/Round
Made Cut %
Driving Distance
Driving Accuracy
Greens in Regulation %
Birdies Gained
Fantasy Points Gained
Double Bogey or Worse Avoidance
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (L15, L25, L50)
Strokes Gained: Approach (L15, L25, L50)
Strokes Gained: Around the Green (L15, L25, L50)
Strokes Gained: Putting (L15, L25, L50)
You can use all of them or just pick and choose which ones you want. The weights should equal 100 to get an accurate assessment.
Being able to attack these small greens and get the ball close will be the make or break for a lof these players. I also want to focus on Double Bogey or Worse avoidance as being able to stay away from big numbers will be another key to not slamming your trunk on Friday afternoon and heading home.
One interesting piece pointed out by Taco was this:
Season-long stat correlations with FP scoring at Valero (since 2012, compared to all other ShotLink covered courses)
SG: Approach 25% (38/41)
SG: Putting 24% (7/41)
SG: Around the Green 22% (6/41)
SG: Off The Tee 19% (38/41)
Driving Distance 7% (17/41)
Greens in Regulation 7% (18/41)
Driving Accuracy 0% (30/41)
Overall variance: 26/41
Essentially what this means is that SG: Approach correlate as much to fantasy scoring this week as normal, but SG: Putting seems to get a bit of a boost here. There’s no real correlation to Driving Accuracy here, but I do think it’s important to put yourself in position off the tee, whether that’s in the fairway or not.
Here’s how I broke down my current model for the week:
And here is how it played out:
Again, Fowler and Finau are core plays for me. I think Sungjae Im will be a little disappointed in his results from the past weekend where he held the lead after two rounds, but couldn’t keep pace with Graeme McDowell who went on to win. I think him, but he is priced up pretty ridiculously considering the skill of the players below him. This does mean we can get him at lower ownership though, which is intriguing.
Ben An is one of my favorite plays this week…as usual. He’s so good tee to green. I bet him at 33-1, and expect him to be around the leaderboard all week. Obviously putting is an issue, and hopefully the slow, easy to read greens benefit him.
Just below An, is Ryan Moore who has been sneaky good the last few weeks and great history here. I love the price for him on both sites.
This is a great tool to mess around with and see what comes up. I know my weights will probably change here over the next 24 hours, but this is a good starting point for anyone looking to use the Stat Cruncher for the first time.
One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though only 134 this week, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Matt Kuchar: DK $11,200/FD $12,100
Projected GPP ownership: 18%-22%
Coming off a win at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, Kuch is going to be a very popular option this week. DFS Golf utilizes recency bias maybe more than any other sport. Guy has a good week, people are all over him the next one. Now Kuchar is obviously a world-class player and should be highly owned regardless, but coming off a win he’s going to be even more popular.
The concern here though is that he has just played 7 match play matches in 4 days, including 2 on Saturday/Sunday. Not only is that a TON of golf, but it’s a mental grind as well. Add in the drama with Sergio that they had to apologize for yesterday (you know their sponsors/agents pushed hard for that) and you have a guy in a prime spot for a letdown.
Kuch has been just kind of mediocre here over the last few years, having not broken the top 40 in his last three trips to San Antonio. He’s also 18th here in projected DK score per round. I’m just not willing to pay up for a guy who isn’t a great course fit and is in a prime let down spot. Fade for me.
Above 9K Pivot:
Ryan Moore: DK $9,100/FD $10,100
Projected GPP Ownership: 8%-10%
Ryan Moore is my sneaky (I hope) play of the week. Everyone will focus on Benny An, Jim Furyk, Jason Kokrak, and Billy Horschel in the 9k range, likely not leaving much ownership left for ol’ Ryan Moore.
Ryan crushes this course. In his three trips here he has finished 18th, 8th, and 7th. And it’s easy to see why…he puts himself in good spots all over the course. While not being the longest hitter on tour, he finds the fairway at a ridiculous 74% clip, and because he does that, he does a great job of avoiding double bogeys or worse. Where you really get in trouble here is when you get off the fairway and have to deal with trees, etc. Often times if you miss, you likely have no shot at the green. Moore won’t have that issue here as he crushes fairways. (He’s number one in double bogey or worse %)
He’s 9th in my stat model this week, and another positive for him is that he ranks 5th in this field in greens in regulation. This is a perfect set up for Moore and he’s a guy I’m going to be all in on.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, Sungjae Im, Jim Furyk, Jason Kokrak, Byeong Hun An, Billy Horschel
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Jhonattan Vegas DK $8700/FD $10,400
Projected GPP Ownership: 16%-19%
Jonny Vegas is getting a lot of love this week and while he’s been playing well this year and with some consistency that we actually haven’t seen from him in his career, this is not a course that I expect him to excel at.
If we look at how he scores on the type of holes on this course, Vegas ranks in the bottom half of the field in 12/18 with his saving grace really being the long par 3’s. Which while important, more so for not making big numbers and not necessarily gaining strokes.
He ranks 44th overall in projected round score, and 81st in projected DK points per round…not good. I get that the form coming into this event is pretty solid, but not only does he project as a bad fit…he actually is a bad fit. He’s 3 for 6 in made cuts and has never finished better than 34th. Last year he kicked things off with a solid 81. And it wasn’t just a big number or two, he had 7 bogeys and a double. In fact for the week in two rounds he had 11 bogeys and one double in two rounds.
Where you get in trouble on this course is either by not driving it well (Vegas has a driving accuracy of 59%) or struggling around the greens (Vegas actually gains .13 strokes around the green long term). I just don’t trust Vegas enough in either of these areas to pour money into him this week.
To be honest, I’d much rather pivot to literally everyone in this range, particularly Euro Joost Luiten.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Justin Harding: DK $7200/FD $9100
Projected GPP Ownership: 7%-10%
While I do love Joost Luiten and he’s a core play for me this week, he’ll likely end up being somewhat highly owned. Justin Harding is a guy who is going to fly under the radar a bit, despite having a fantastic week at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.
We don’t have a ton of info on Harding since he plays primarily on the European tour, which means that he’s not going to pop in anyone’s stat model. That’s a benefit to us. Harding played excellent last week at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, winning both of his matches before running into the buzzsaw that was Rory McIlroy in the group play.
A lot of his solid play last week was due to a solid putter, of which he ranks 16th on the European tour this year. He also is an excellent scrambler around the greens. This is a perfect fit for him if he can have a decent week with his driver.
Harding also played four years of college golf at Lamar University in nearby Beaumont, Texas so he should be used to the Texas winds. He’s also priced at the dead minimum (excluding Smylie Kaufman) on Fanduel. SMASH him over there.
My hope is that we get him at reduced ownership this week on Draftkings and he’ll be a player I’m heavily invested in.
Other highly owned players (over 12%): Abraham Ancer, Ryan Palmer, Joost Luiten, Jhonattan Vegas, Luke List, Joaquin Niemann
Check out my Preview Article for my full betting card!
–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – Valero Texas Open <–
Below 7.5K
Only two players down here should crack the 10% mark in Trey Mullinax and DJ Trahan. I really like DJ Trahan, he’s been playing great golf. Mullinax has been consistently finishing around 30th-40th and was second here last year, but I think I’ll be avoiding him this week. With these two sucking up most of the ownership down here means you can likely get guys with high upside at low ownership down here. I’m going to highlight a couple of players down here that I think can help win you a gpp.
Dylan Frittelli DK $7300/FD $9300
The former Texas Longhorn has back to back top 30 finishes here and is coming off back to back top 40 finishes on tour. He’s an excellent driver of the golf ball which should serve him well here. He also does a nice job avoiding the big number. Really like his upside here but boom or bust as he can struggle and miss the cut like anyone in this range.
Nick Taylor: DK $7200/FD $8700
The young Canadian is playing the best golf of his career and is returning to a course that he has had a ton of success at, making two of three cuts and having two top 25 finishes. Hasn’t finished lower than 33rd since all the way back to the Waste Management.
Chris Kirk: DK $7100/FD $8700
A real course history play here. Kirk has crushed this course over the years, with three top 15 finishes in his last four trips. Hasn’t played all that great this year, but that is sort of his MO early in the season until he gets to the Texas swing and starts crushing. Not my favorite play, but one I’ll have some of because I believe in course history.
Kramer Hickok: DK $7000/FD $8500
Another Texas Longhorn makes the list. I do like that narrative a bit down here as they tend to play well during this part of the tour. Hickok has just been playing some fantastic golf lately as well though. Extremely accurate off the tee, great around the green game and putting stroke. Should do well here.
Other low owned cheap players I’m interested in: Vaughn Taylor, Julian Etulain, Grayson Murray
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page.
Final Thoughts:
This is the last week before the Masters’! Be smart with your bankroll so you aren’t redepositing before next week’s Major! There are tons of great contests, particularly satellites to some of the bigger contests on Draftkings and Fanduel for the Masters.
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!
Join us in our coaching channels this week and let’s win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!