Welcome to Masters Hangover week! The Tour takes a quick trip to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year for DFS golf with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
TIGER TIGER WOODS YA’LL! Seriously. I can’t believe that we just saw that. I never thought we would see Tiger in red putting on the green jacket again. It gives me chills just typing this. The affairs etc notwithstanding, being able to come back from the back issues he’s had in the last few years to get this point is truly incredible. He was excellent all week and really could have run away with this tournament had he putted a bit better or taken advantage of the par 5’s like Brooks Koepka did.
Francesco Molinari put on a master class all week. He was so solid tee to green, never had a nervy putt, and just tore Augusta apart methodically. That is until the 12th hole on Sunday. I’m not here to criticize Moli, but with a two-shot lead on Sunday, with a traditional Sunday pin on the right, you hit the ball to the middle of the green over the bunker. 2 putt par. Bogey at worse. It’s a sucker pin over there. You essentially have to hit it past the hole and have a tricky downhiller coming back at it if you want to hit there. Short is dead. And as we saw, Francesco went after it and ended up in the water, making double bogey and giving Tiger Woods life…something you really don’t want to do. A stray pine cone on the 15th ended Molinari’s tournament (and my outright bet on him), but it was over as soon as he decided to go at the pin on 12.
It was an incredible tournament, start to finish and so much fun to watch. A really poor week for me DFS wise (Matt Wallace/Sergio Garcia missed the cut, and not enough Tiger/Cantlay/Deki), that got worse with Molinari blowing it on Sunday as that outright hit would have paid for my week, but I’m not even mad. I got to watch Tiger put on a master class at Augusta and put on the green jacket again. Well worth the price of admission if you ask me.
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DFS Army VIP jefferypcoffman had a great run in the Milly Maker at the Masters shooting all the way up to 19th for a big pay day!
Everyone is on the Masters Hangover this week but this is a really fun tournament and one that is typically profitable for those looking to put the time into research. It’s also one of the most STACKED fields that the RBC Heritage has ever seen (barring any WD’s) and should be a really fun week at a tight, Pete Dye design on the South Carolina coast.
Course Breakdown:
Located in Hilton Head, South Carolina, the RBC Heritage is played at the coastal Harbour Town Golf Links. Harbour Town is a Pete Dye design from 1987. Dye designed the course with the help of Jack Nicklaus. The course plays at 7099 yards and is a par 71 with eleven par 4’s, three par 5’s, and four par 3’s.
Harbour Town and the RBC Heritage are consistently rated as one of the tour players favorite tournaments of the year. While some may see the length and tight fairways and wonder why the reality is that this is really a fun test of all aspects of your golf game. While the fairways are tight and tree lined, the rough isn’t very long, therefore allowing players to shape shots out of the rough into these itty bitty greens, under and over trees. There is a ton of ways to get around this course and its a true ‘shotmakers’ paradise. You also don’t want to weigh driving accuracy too heavily, as that mostly accounts for Driver as players are often hitting that club 10-12 times a round at a normal tour stop. Here though, they will be using lots of 3 woods and Irons off the tee and this course actually rates out as having some of the easier to hit fairways because of that.
At an average of 3700 square feet, these are the smallest greens on tour. Players hit them at an average of about 57% of the time. SG: Approach will be HUGE this week, but also we need to consider that players will have to be sharp with their short game around these greens as they are difficult to hit. Par is often a good score until you get your next opportunity to score. If you do hit these greens in regulation you have a very good chance at a birdie.
While short and tight, you can still hit driver around here. Dustin Johnson finished 16th here last year (was in contention until a poor 3rd round where he shot even par) and he hit 4-5 drivers a round.
This course is all about shot placement and missing in good spots. You need to be in a position to get to these little greens. Accuracy off the tee will be vitally important this week.
With this course on the coast, the wind is almost always a factor here, and as it looks now, the weather is going to be an issue. Here is Friday’s forecast:
Looks, like there is going to be a deluge of rain, with possible flooding. It’s entirely possible that they don’t play at all on Friday. That would almost ensure a Monday finish here. A long week is in store for everyone teeing it up here. Saturday and Sunday look pretty nice, with just the standard 10-12 mph wind that one is to expect at any coastal course. Because it is so tree lined, players often don’t feel the wind but have to know that it’s blowing at 20 mph above the trees and it’s going to affect their ball flight.
Overall, a fun test that requires you to be able to shape the ball both ways, think your way around the course, and deal with the variety of winds. The trees will be a factor and don’t be surprised when you see a player only advance a ball from the rough or tree line 30 yards because they hit a tree limb.
Are you using the Domination Station to build lineups? If you are building more than 20 lineups and aren’t using it quit wasting your time! Check out the tutorial to learn how!
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Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the RBC Heritage.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and former DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Interestingly, we don’t have any of the top priced players popping as great values this week and it’s more of the mid tier that looks like the best route. This isn’t too surprising as that has been the buzz within the DFS community this week as well, that a balanced build is the way to go. I have a ton of interest in Stars and Scrubs builds because of this, but more on that later.
Tommy Fleetwood leads the way and will likely be popular at this price. He’s never played here before, but that hasn’t really stopped guys from doing well in the past. He has a great game for here, even if he hasn’t really shown it lately. He’s an excellent ballstriker and scrambles really well which should benefit him on these small greens. One way to differentiate yourself in GPP is to pair him with his Ryder Cup partner Francesco Molinari who is getting NO LOVE this week despite absolutely tearing apart Augusta.
Webb Simpson is a core play for me this week, but maybe Ian Poulter should be too. He is playing excellent golf with maybe my only concern being his putter, he’s similar to Ben An inside of ten foot, which isn’t good. Still a solid play at that really nice price.
Speaking of Ben An, putter be damned! I’m all in on my boy again this week. Just unreal tee to green. If he ever putts even a little bit he’ll win an event by 5-6 strokes. I’m pot committed now and this is a course he’s had success at.
Lucas Glover has been the definition of consistency this year. At some point he’s going to break through with a win, I really think its only a matter of time as he continues to put himself in position. Hasn’t been great here over the years, but has been playing really well.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score)is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
It should come as no surprise to anyone that Dustin Johnson leads the way here as he is the clear class of the field, it’s interesting how close Tommy Fleetwood and Bryson DeChambeau are though. Obviously Fleetwood is the better value at his price, but Bryson makes an interesting option to start your GPP lineups with as he’s going to be underowned in that range despite his excellent history here.
Keith Mitchell pops and is actually an interesting case. His projected round score of 70.79 is ranked 39th in the field. While his projected DK score ranks 6th. How does that work? Well essentially the RS is saying that he might not necessarily contend for the win this week, but because of how he scores he will be up there in DK points. Remember, while place points are important, birdies and bogeys are king. Even last week, the milly maker winner didn’t have the winner of the tournament.
Marc Leishman pops here but his form has been pretty poor. He’s likely going to be low owned, even at that discounted price. Making an ownership play on Leish in GPP is a really interesting strategy. You’d be banking on long term form and pedigree more than current form, but its a play I really like.
And finally, as you know if you’ve been a DFS Army VIP long enough, its #SUNGJAESZN. I’m all in on Sungjae Im here. His game fits perfectly. He’s good on Pete Dye tracks. He’s excellent on coastal courses. I’m all in this week. I think he’s likely close to 18% owned, so you need to be at least double that in GPP to get leverage on the field.
Par 4 Scoring:
With 11 par 4’s on the course this week, scoring on them will be essential. We have it broken down in the RS as two short par 4’s, five medium par 4’s, and four long par 4’s. Let’s take a look at the long and medium par 4’s and see who pops and if there is any crossover between the lists.
Again, no surprise that DJ is the top of the list here, but I think Charles Howell III is a very interesting play at likely low ownership since he’s priced up. He crushes par 4’s and he’s been playing really well.
I was all in on Branden Grace last week and while he made the cut, he didn’t do much. That leaves a bad taste in my mouth, but good DFS players see past that bias and go right back to the well. What I saw last week maybe shows up even more here with the wind forecast.
Any cross over besides the obvious one (DJ)? NOPE. I’m actually surprised by this, you would think that we would get at least one guy to cross over. Bryson Dechambeau, DJ Trahan, Tommy Fleetwood, and Keith Mitchell are all in the top 35 in medium par 4 scoring, while Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson and Ian Poulter are all in the top 35 of long par 4 scoring.
Trahan is a really sneaky play this week at just a ridiculous price drop. Everyone was ALL IN on him at the Valero and for good reason. He’s been crushing this year with multiple top 20’s. The wiley vet then missed the cut and NO ONE is talking about him this week. A chalk player that goes from 20% owned to 5% owned after one missed cut is almost an automatic play for me. You don’t just get bad after one start. He also crushes these coastal courses with wind. He’ll be a core part of my Stars and Scrubs builds.
SG: Approach L25
With the small greens, I don’t like to target Greens in Regulation because it won’t give me an accurate assessment of who should actually be able to attack these small greens. Instead, I’ll look at Strokes Gained Approach over the last 25 rounds to get an idea of who has the iron play to score here.
Again…DJ…. I really think this is a possible all in on spot. The concern I have is if he handicaps the rest of your roster enough to where you can’t win a GPP with him unless he wins the event. He’s just the class here statistically and its not even close.
Jason Kokrak is always going to be a stat model star but he’s also played like it lately. The guy can score too so he’s in play. The last two years he’s struggled though his whole game was a little off during that time. The weather was also a pretty big factor in those years which it will be again this year.
Jim Furyk hasn’t popped a ton here but he’s a guy I’m going to be invested in. He’s won here multiple times and is playing some of the best golf of his career.
An in form Ryan Moore at a course that really suits his game is a scary proposition and a guy I’m going to be marking as a CORE play for me this week.
I love Corey Conners as much as the next guy. I think he’s got the game to contend here. That price is wack. I’m blown away that he’s not projecting 12% owned this week. For a guy whose game is predicated on elite iron play at a course that puts that at a premium, it seems like a perfect fit. I think he’s worth 10% in GPP and you might be 2x or 3x the field.
Finally, I think Russell Knox is really starting to find his game again and this course sets up really well for his game. He’s a former runner up here and at that price I think I can be all over him.
Other key stats to consider: SG Putting (Bermuda), SG: OTT L25, SG: Around the Green, Birdies Gained,
One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though only 134 this week, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Matt Kuchar: DK $11,200/FD $12,100
Projected GPP ownership: 18%-22%
For the 170th week in a row, Matt Kuchar is projecting as the highest owned player on the slate.
Kuchar’s a good play. He always is. At some point, he’s going to dud at high ownership. Is it this week? Who knows. I have some concerns about his putting here but he’s about as safe as it gets. The price tag means he likely needs a top ten here to hit value (unless he gets 1000 eagles again like last week), but I just don’t know that you can fade Kuch anymore.
I think my modus operandi going forward is I’m just going to match the field on Kuchar. If he’s 20% I’ll have 20%. I’m not going to go way over or under unless the field dictates it or his current form goes to crap.
Above 9K Pivot:
Francesco Molinari: DK $11,300/FD $11,800
Projected GPP Ownership: 10%-12%
Apparently, no one watched the Masters last week. Or the WGC-Dell Match Play two weeks before that. Or the Arnold Palmer earlier this year. Or pretty much any event outside of maybe the Players that Francesco has played in. If they had, there’s NO REASON he should be under 20% owned.
Outside of maybe Brooks Koepka and his two major wins, I think you can make an argument that Molinari has actually been the best golfer in the world the last 12 months. Here’s what he’s done since last year’s RBC Heritage.
Four wins, six top tens (not including the wins), four top 25’s, two missed cuts. That’s insane. He’s finished in the top 25, 60% of the time in the last calendar year and the top 10, 43% of the time.
His history here is just kind of meh. He’s made three cuts in a row here but never really contended. The only reason people are fading him this week though is because he blew a 2 shot lead at the Masters to Tiger Woods. Which doesn’t make any sense to me logically? We’re fading a guy because he…finished 5th? Anyone who thinks they have any sort of insight into Molinari’s mental state is full of it. We have no idea where he is at mentally. Maybe he’s mad and ready to go out there and win again. The traction that the fade Molinari crowd has got here with the ‘he’s going to be mentally over competing again’ is insane and it provides a huge opportunity for us to jump on arguably the best golfer in the world the last year at low ownership.
I’m going to be personally making a big ownership play on him here and going at minimum 3x the field. In some 20 max, I might end up being 100% to increase my odds of a take down. I think he can win this week and even if he doesn’t I don’t see him doing anything worse than a top 20 finish and that will only be if his putter goes cold.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Rickie Fowler, Tony Finau, Matt Kuchar, Sungjae Im, Jim Furyk, Jason Kokrak, Byeong Hun An, Billy Horschel
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Ian Poulter: DK $8600/FD
Projected GPP Ownership: 16%-19%
Poults is projecting as one of the highest owned in this range alongside Byeong Hun An and while I love Poults and he has been playing some pretty good golf I think there is at least some merit to fading him here.
The big concern I have when looking at the RS is that he doesn’t necessarily rate out well for DK projected points per round. He’s a decent par 4 scorer, but struggles on the long par 3’s and par 5’s.
I also have some concerns about his recent approach numbers being mediocre. He’s getting it done off the tee and around the green which is good to see, but his irons have been lagging behind. We don’t have a ton of data from the Masters’ but he did hit quite a few greens in regulation which is good to see, but will he be able to hit these small greens and score?
Bermuda is also one of his worst surfaces. A chalky Poulter is probably a spot I’m getting off as he’s not a guy I love to begin with. He could absolutely come in and crush as he has that sort of skill set, but for me, I’ll be underweight or off completely this week.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Charles Howell III: DK $8700/FD $10,100
Projected GPP Ownership: 7%-10%
CH3 is a direct pivot off of the chalkier Ian Poulter and actually may be the better option here. While Howells course history isn’t near as sparkling, there’s been only a few players who have been as consistent as him over the course of this year. Despite being born and raised in Augusta, the traditional thought process was that you would play CH3 on the west coast and then never roster him again, similar to a Scott Stallings, but he has bucked that trend this year, playing well in the Florida swing and even at the Masters where he has had difficulty producing solid results over the course of his career.
Howell just does everything really well and he gets back onto bermuda grass which is his preferred putting surface. The approach numbers leave a bit to be desired here but he just rates out everywhere really well. He’s going to be under-owned because of who he’s priced around (Poulter and similarly chalky Jason Kokrak) and while I think he’s great for cash, I really like him for GPP this week.
Other highly owned players (over 12%): Jason Kokrak, Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, Lucas Glover, Russell Knox
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Below 7.5K
There is really no one under 7.5K who I think will even push 10% this week so ownership will be very spread out among a lot of guys. I’m going to highlight a couple of players down here that I think can help take down a GPP for you.
Corey Conners: DK $7300/FD $9300
I really thought that Conners would garner more ownership this week given his win two weeks ago and solid performance at the Masters, but again, people are overthinking it with the ‘he’s tired, can’t believe he’s playing again after his whirlwind couple weeks’. I can see a fade maybe if he’s priced appropriately around 8.2K but at this price? At low single digit ownership? Smash it. 3x the field is only around 12-15%. Well worth it for a guy who crushes irons and off the tee and has a top 25 DK point projection from us.
Keith Mitchell: DK $7300/FD $9500
Rates out really really well for us, like top ten in the field well for us. He crushes it tee to green and his putting has been improved. He scored really well at the Masters but couldn’t avoid the bogeys. Will need to be a bit more accurate off the tee but I think he’s in good shape for a really solid finish at ridiculously low ownership. Considering him as a core play.
Jonas Blixt: DK $7100/FD $7900
Love me some Blixt this week. Was 14th here last year coming in with just awful form so clearly, something about this course suits his eye. This year he is coming in with great form on the back of 6 straight made cuts. His price, especially on Fanduel is fantastic. I think he has winning upside here if the putter stays hot.
Kevin Na: DK $6900/FD $8900
I’m not sure why a player who has three previous top 10’s at this tournament and is coming of a solid tournament at the Masters’ is priced all the way down here but here we are. The concern is that he’s struggled off the tee a bit in terms of accuracy but I think clubbing down this week will benefit him. He’s played well at similar courses like Colonial, and on other Pete Dye tracks. He’s a volatile player but I really have to jump on him at this price point.
Other low owned cheap players I’m interested in: Nick Taylor, Ernie Els, D.J. Trahan, Rory Sabbatini
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page.
Final Thoughts:
I’m going to be making quite a few lineups focused on the AM Tee times on Thursday as I think that they get washed out Friday afternoon in the rain and wind. The weather looks a bit better Saturday morning when they would then play their second rounds. I typically don’t target wave advantages but I think we could really see one here. They get the easier conditions Thursday morning while the PM guys play in the heavy winds Thursday afternoon and Friday Morning ahead of the storm coming in.
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!
Join us in our coaching channels this week and let’s win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!