Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is to look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to score goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
Washington Capitals @ Carolina Hurricanes
Odds: CAR -125, 6.0 o/u
Washington Capitals: Carolina has taken 62% of the total shots in this series so it is hard to get excited about the depth on Washington. Oshie got moved up to the first line with Backstrom and Ovechkin and that is as far as I will look for my exposure to Washington tonight.
5 star plays – Backstrom, Ovechkin
4 star plays – Oshie, Carlson
Cash viable – Backstrom, Ovechkin
GPP Sleeper – Kuznetsov
Carolina Hurricanes: While the shots have been plentiful the high danger chances have not, however, I believe Carolina can break that trend and if they can, Holtby ranks only above Jordan Binnington in high danger save percentage. So if Carolina can create, look for those chances to go in.
5 star plays – Aho, Teravainen, Hamilton
4 star plays – Niederreiter, Slavin, Foegele (Value Play)
Cash viable – Foegele (Value Play), Aho, Niederreiter, Teravanien, Slavin (FD)
GPP Sleeper – Foegele
St. Louis Blues @ Winnipeg Jets
Odds: WPG -120, 5.5 o/u
St. Louis Blues: Losing back to back on the road after going up 2-0 is demolishing, and having to go back to Winnipeg’s crazy home ice does not help either. The Blues rank only above the Capitals in HDCF so outside of STL1, I do not want anything here.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – O’Reilly, Tarasenko, Schenn
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Perron
Winnipeg Jets: Binnington ranks dead last in high danger save percentage and I love Ehlers and Laine together at their price. They make for a nice mini stack against the rookie goalie who just lost back to back games for the first time in his NHL career.
5 star plays – Laine, Ehlers
4 star plays – Connor, Wheeler, Scheifle, Byfuglien
Cash viable – Laine, Ehlers
GPP Sleeper – Ehlers-Little-Laine
Vegas Golden Knights @ San Jose Sharks
Odds: SJ -125, 6.0 o/u
Vegas Golden Knights: Pacioretty and Stone remain on fire and I will be looking to them both again against a Sharks team who would almost be better putting a sack of potatoes in the net.
5 star plays – Pacioretty, Stone
4 star plays – Statsny, Karlsson, Smith, Marchessault, Theodore
Cash viable – Pacioretty, Stone, Statsny, Miller, Theodore
GPP Sleeper – Tuch
San Jose Sharks: The narrative of “this team has to show up this game so they will” has not been very successful throughout these playoffs, I do not expect the Sharks to show up tonight and I think Vegas takes them out.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
DFS NHL Goalies for Today:
Marc Andre Fleury (BOTH): Having only allowed 4 goals on 73 total shots, Fleury looks like he is locked in. As I do not plan to roster any Sharks, I love the Flower tonight.
Connor Hellebuyck (GPP): Coming off an OT win and a .969 save percentage while opposing goalie Binnington has been slipping, he makes for a great play if you believe in the Jets tonight.