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DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown Advice Strategy and Picks for Fanduel and Draftkings Apr 1

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports.  If you are looking for it, we cover it!  Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.

MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process

A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion.  Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction.  I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within.  I explain in three quick steps…

Identifying Quality MLB Pitching

I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price.  I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories.  Some days I can find cheaper pitching.  Other days, I’m paying all the way up.  Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.

APR 1 Report – We have significant questions regarding Brad Peacock and Matt Strahm.  Both show, on paper, as our best combinations of KScore, Vegas odds, and salary….especially salary.  However, neither tend to pitch deep into games.  It appears they are getting chances to “stretch out,” but they are very risky propositions and will likely have quick hooks from their managers.  Tread lightly, but they really open up salary for bats.  I do, however, love that Strahm is priced up as a starter on Draftkings….making me really want to use him on Fanduel.  I don’t want to pay up for Clevinger, but might have to in some spots.  I also don’t like he’s priced down on DK….but likely favor him there if he makes any of my lineups.  He, then, becomes an intriguing GPP option on FD.  Archer and Matz are middle of the road, but Archer has more upside.  And, when battling amongst the backs of rotations, sometimes these are the scraps we are left to chew on.  Good luck today, may the guesswork be on your side!

Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses

When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators.  Look at all that green circled!  These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble).  To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.

APR 1 Report – Lots to pick from….or on….when it comes to back end pitching.  We have pitchers with no histories, and pitchers with poor histories.  HOU, BOS, LAD, and SEA jump to the tops of pages when it comes to facing poor pitching.  TOR, SDP, and TBR also draw sketchy starters, but I would use them more for salary relief, or just play the one-off game around my main stacks today.  Look for cheap bats at tops of orders that tend to get on base (OBP or even wOBA).

How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA

Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups.  Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column.  I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks.  And, I will ride them off and on all year.  People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices.  I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days.  If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then.  And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too.  Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down.  When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced.  And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time.  Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP.  This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.

BAL Orioles @ TOR Blue Jays

Odds: TOR -185, 9 o/u

I won’t be on Orioles bats outside of a gpp dart throws being none of them are hitting over .400 woba right now.  But, I will be tempted to go back to the well again with TOR bats.  I can tell you they aren’t ripping covers off balls either, but the spot against David Hess is potentially juicy.  I don’t know how often TOR is going to draw soft matchups and disappoint, but I’m trying to stay patient.  Hess throws fastballs and changeups, which profile well to the TOR lefty bats.

BAL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none

TOR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – maybe Smoak
Cash viable – some are so cheap, they are hard to ignore, but I don’t particularly like any of them.
GPP note – saving stacks for gpps here, nothing appeals to me in cash right now.

COL Rockies @ TB Rays

Odds:  no current line

Bettis is a pitcher we can definitely attack, but with what?  Only Yandy Diaz is currently hitting over a .350 woba on the Rays entire club.  GPP only here as we need more consistent production to consider even this soft spot for cash games.  Ryne Stanek won’t be around long with his average innings per start at 1.4 from last year.  So, we need to look at the Rays pen, and we find it wasn’t terrible last year, which allowed this theory of a reliever starting to even pan out some.  This is a goofy spot for COL and if they were running hot, I’d take some chances, but again, they aren’t.  The big bats are off to a slow start this year already.  They won’t be down long, but we have to exercise patience at those prices, unless again, you are wanting gpp narratives.

TBR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – Pham
GPP note – Pham, Choi, Lowe, Diaz would make a sexy stack and it might work….but you are riding on the come here.

TBR 5 Star Plays – Dahl
4 Star Plays – Ianetta, McMahon
Cash viable – Dahl, McMahon…..and even Iannetta won’t exactly hurt you at his near minimum price.
GPP note – Sure, bank on the stack, but also bank on being disappointed.

CHC Cubs @ ATL Braves

Odds:  CHC -125, 8 o/u

The Cubs have scored 28 runs in 3 games to open 2019, and that definitely bears watching in any matchup including this one.  Our Braves have only scored 11 and have yet to win a game.  So, you know what that means right?  Yep, a Braves sweep is in order.  Don’t be shocked if I turn out right.  It sounds dumb, and I don’t believe it will happen, but baseball is a funky game and it shouldn’t surprise you if the sweep happens.  Sean Newcomb’s “stuff” is pretty good, but he does give up a lot of hard contact (34.8% last year) and the Cubs are running hot.  Baez, Schwarber, and Bryant all carry over .530 wOBAs into the series.  I’m not interested in ATL bats until they stop hitting the snooze button and get moving a little.

CHC 5 Star Plays – Baez, Schwarber, Bryant
4 Star Plays – Contreras, Zobrist
Cash viable – I’d play any of them, including a Zobrist/Heyward 7-8 mini-stack for value just to get exposure.
GPP note – Any and all combos apply right now.

ATL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Markakis is 5/11 with 2 doubles and a 1.091 OPS vs Hendricks.

 

Here at DFS Army, we win……and we win a lot.  From smaller budgets and cash games to bigger whales swinging for the 6-figure fences, we’ve guided every type and every experience level for going on 4 seasons now.  Our members rave about the responsiveness and interaction between coaches and players, and we actually form friendships that span sports.  There is no community more invested in your success, nor a community that takes greater pride in your wins and sweats as we watch and root for you into the wee hours of mornings.  Don’t believe me?  See our Wall of Wins and just scroll through page after page and sport after sport…

NYM Mets @ MIA Marlins

Odds: NYM -135, 7.5 o/u

I think the Mets surprised us a little in the Washington series.  It’s nice to see them draw a softer team so we can dive into a few of their bats, potentially.  Caleb Smith has a little upside in strikeouts, but also carries a high xFIP, fly ball rate, and hard contact rate.  Mets bats are in play.  Steven Matz is nearly the opposite in that he pitches to contact, has a very high ground ball rate (over 50%), and will be using this death trap of a park to his advantage.  Marlins bats are to be used sparingly.

NYM 5 Star Plays – McNeil, Alonso
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – Alonso
GPP note – Note that at the 2 and 7 spots, McNeil and Alonso don’t correlate well together unless you connect them with other bats.

MIA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Walker, Rojas (if leading off)
Cash viable – maybe Rojas if leading off
GPP note – none

HOU Astros @ TEX Rangers

Odds:  HOU -160, 9.5 o/u

Highest game total of the night slate, and people will notice.  We don’t really have a history on Drew Smyly on paper, so my assumption is HOU lovers will go nuts with stacking.  However, debuts and pitchers with no history usually favors the pitcher.  Young and hungry and coming out of camp rolling well enough to earn a spot?  I don’t want to fade Houston bats, but I don’t want to go crazy stacking them, either.  Texas draws a pretty nasty matchup in Peacock for a 5th starter day.  But, they are running hot enough as a team I’ll still take bats.  Rougned Odor has particularly good BVP vs Peacock with a 7/12 with 2 bombs and a 1.833 OPS!!

HOU 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Brantley, Altuve
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none

TEX 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Andrus, Cabrera, Mazara
Cash viable – Andrus
GPP note – Odor in with a few of these guys for his BVP.

BOS Red Sox @ OAK Athletics

Odds:  BOS -140, 8 o/u

The Red Sox are off to a bit of a slower start, but might have just shown signs of getting it together.  They are too deep to keep down for long.  I would, however, like to see my L7 wOBA numbers reflect a little momentum rather than chasing some of these guys’ first homeruns of the year thinking they are suddenly on fire.  OAK is always a threat with Khris Davis, but I’d also like to see some more from them and David Price isn’t typically a pitcher I look to attack on larger slates.

BOS 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Vasquez, Moreland
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Of course, stacks are viable, but we have another largely unknown pitcher making this a gpp type play for me.

OAK 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Khris Davis almost always in play for gpps.

 

Starting Lineups for every game!  And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades.  You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up.  Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….

SFG Giants @ LAD Dodgers

Odds:  LAD -210, 8 o/u

The Giants are just not going to score a ton of runs this year when it’s all said and done.  I will have very little day to day interest in them outside of a couple of trending wOBA guys for cheap.  The Dodgers, however, opened their 4 game series with ARI and dropped 42 runs on them on 14 homeruns.  Generally speaking, the Dodgers are going to be in play every night.  Tonight is no exception.

SFG 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Longoria
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none

LAD 5 Star Plays – Barnes, Pederson, Bellinger
4 Star Plays – Hernandez, Pollock
Cash viable – Barnes
GPP note – Of course stacks are in play here…..all day long.

LAA Angels @ SEA Mariners

Odds:  LAA -115, 8.5 o/u

There really isn’t a lot to like about the Angels right now.  Cold bats with a few random outbursts.  Trout will be Trout, but the rest will probably be streaky.  The Mariners, however, have really hit the ground running.  And, we have a larger sample of numbers for them being they started “games that count” earlier than anyone else, too.  Chris Stratton is not a great pitcher, and I look for SEA to continue hitting for a little while here.

LAA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – Pham
GPP note – none

SEA 5 Star Plays – Narvaez, Santana, Beckham
4 Star Plays – Healy
Cash viable – Narvaez (price considered)
GPP note – spots 2-8 are in play here for me, and they all but Narvaez profile well against Stratton’s two dominant pitches.

ARI Diamondbacks @ SDP Padres

Odds:  SDP -165, 7.5 o/u

Arizona has some playable bats, but they might not profile as well vs Strahm….making Strahm actually an intriguing DFS pitcher tonight.  The Padres have no realistic history against Kelly, of course, so I’m not as inclined to jump into this game with a 7.5 game total in a big ballpark during California evenings.  Wil Myers might be the only Padre I consider.

ARI 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Avila
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none

SDP 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Myers
Cash viable – Myers
GPP note – none

 

Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…

Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs.  However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you.  Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition.  There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!

GPP Sleeper stack = Andrus/Cabrera/Mazara/Odor vs Peacock – I don’t suspect a lot of people will want to take on HOU pitching.  Lots of other choices out there, but little as collectively productive as this unit right now……..and Odor has the 2 bombs off Peacock.  

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions.  I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too.  All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.

–> Get the Key Today!  Start Winning With Us! <–

I hope to see you inside soon.  Have a blessed and profitable day.