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DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown Advice Strategy and Picks for Fanduel and Draftkings Apr 9

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports.  If you are looking for it, we cover it!  Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.

MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process

A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion.  Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction.  I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within.  I explain in three quick steps…

Identifying Quality MLB Pitching

I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price.  I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories.  Some days I can find cheaper pitching.  Other days, I’m paying all the way up.  Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.

APR 9 Report – deGrom is the best pitcher on the slate in terms of KScore, Vegas odds, DFSA grade, and even opponent faced.  His issue is price.  I like find the best pitcher and then look for savings while evaluating what I’m sacrificing in K upside or Vegas odds.  Is it worth it to save some money?  That leads me down the road of pitchers until I settle on one that strikes a good balance for me.  Not everyone does it that way.  However, I know my risk and an more than comfortable taking it.  Cole is a little cheaper, and the KScore goes up, but faces the Yankees.  Stripling likely becomes my choice at a full $3000+ cheaper than deGrom with a higher KScore.  I feel I have similar upside and possibly even floor in this matchup.  I can hopefully make up the 10 or so points I might be giving with better bats with better upside.  Dangerous rope to walk in MLB, but it’s where I live…..and it keeps me usually lower owned with decent upside to make some pretty strong lineups.  Lucchesi might be next facing San Francisco.  Strasburg might be the forgotten man and shouldn’t be ignored in tourneys.

Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses

When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators.  Look at all that green circled!  These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble).  To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.

APR 9 Report – The bad pitchers aren’t as easy to spot today, but a couple did stand out.  LAD gets Dakota Hudson, who is young and learning.  MIL and SDP face pitchers with bad DFSA grades in our research station, too.  From there, I might focus on the “bad” category in our station.  The bad category points out other teams like ARI, COL, and SEA again tonight.  Compared to IRT (implied run total), COL and SEA have a lot of potential.  I’ll definitely be going back to the well in SEA.  The rest does feel a bit wide open to me and I’ll likely just be mixing and matching the hottest bats I can find in various stacks hoping to catch something really, really right.

How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA

Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups.  Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column.  I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks.  And, I will ride them off and on all year.  People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices.  I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days.  If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then.  And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too.  Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down.  When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced.  And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time.  Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP.  This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.

Filtered yesterday to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year.  We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.

 

OAK Athletics @ BAL Orioles

Odds:  OAK -165, 9 o/u

Weird matchup where bad pitching outweighs weaker hitting.  This game was great last night, especially the BAL side.  I want more pieces of it tonight even though the offenses, in general, aren’t scoring a ton of runs per game.

OAK 5 Star Plays – Phegley, Pinder
4 Star Plays – Piscotty, Laureano (if playing), Canha
GPP note – Khris Davis can never be fully ignored

BAL 5 Star Plays – Villar
4 Star Plays – Alberto, Rickard, Mancini
GPP note – they were in the gpp-winning stacks last night and might do it again with some of these hotter bats

WAS Nationals @ PHI Phillies

Odds:  PHI -130, 7.5 o/u

More of a pitching battle according to Vegas.  I won’t have big pieces of this game, but I might include some one-offs.

WAS 5 Star Plays – Rendon
4 Star Plays – Zimmerman, Soto
GPP note – would be low-owned to stack against Nola

PHI 5 Star Plays – Harper
4 Star Plays – Hoskins, Herrera
GPP note – none

MIN Twins @ NYM Mets

Odds:  NYM -220, 6.5 o/u

MIN isn’t a team I’d want to stack against deGrom….well, no one is.  But, in gpps, it does pay off some.  The Mets have some bats I’d like to use against the less than intimidating Kyle Gibson, but I also know Kyle sometimes shines when you expect him to get smoked.  Is today that day?

MIN 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – not something I’m doing, but Polanco, Astudillo, Kepler, and Cruz are stackable if you want to take down deGrom

NYM 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Conforto, Alonso, McNeil
GPP note – ownership will be spread enough most stacks are capable of winning you a gpp

LAD Dodgers @ STL Cardinals

Odds:  LAD -135, 8.5 o/u

Dakota Hudson is young, but I don’t know that means vulnerable.  What I do know is LA is setting offensive records for this early in the season and I don’t want to bet against their bats.  STL, however, has some sneaky bottom of the order candidates here, too.  Stripling is my favorite pitcher today, mainly due to the $3000 savings off deGrom.

LAD 5 Star Plays – Verdugo, Bellinger
4 Star Plays – Muncy, Kike
GPP note – none

STL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Bader, Wong, DeJong
GPP note – I would like to see them running hotter to endorse full stacks

NYY Yankees @ HOU Astros

Odds:  HOU -175, 8 o/u

Gerrit Cole is another pitcher I’m not into attacking, but the Yankees can get to anyone on good days.  HOU isn’t running hot enough for me to really take big pieces off yet, but they do draw a decent implied run total tonight and might command my attention at least somewhat.

NYY 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – if tackling the beast, Sanchez, Frazier, Torres, and/or Gardner are bats I’d use in my stacks.

HOU 5 Star Plays – Diaz
4 Star Plays – Bregman, Kemp
GPP note – just not enough going around these guys for me to want to really dive in here.

 

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SEA Mariners @ KCR Royals

Odds:  KCR -110, 9 o/u

Fairly stout run total on this game tells me to pay attention.  SEA is still pretty hot and KC allows runs against, as you saw last night.  KC doesn’t have the firepower, but they also draw a good spot tonight to produce a nice game stack situation.

SEA 5 Star Plays – Vogelbach
4 Star Plays – Encarnacion, Bruce, Beckham, Santana
GPP note – always a little under the radar

KCR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Gordon, Merrifield
GPP note – even further under the radar

ATL Braves @ COL Rockies

Odds:  COL -130, 10.5 o/u

Coors Field produces runs.  We all know that.  However, if Fried does what he did to the Cubs, and the better German Marquez shows up, this game warrants a fade tonight.  I’ll likely gamble and hope people jump into this one while I focus on other stacks that might outperform this game.

ATL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Albies, Swanson, Freeman, Markakis
GPP note – peaks my interest a little on Coors slates.

COL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Story, Arenado
GPP note – probably fading

TEX Rangers @ ARI Diamondbacks

Odds:  ARI -140, 8.5 o/u

Interesting total in the 2nd best park in MLB…..I might focus more on the ARI side here, but Joey Gallo is getting a little hot and can’t be ignored.  This is exactly the type of scenario that can produce gpp bats no one sees coming with their attention on Coors Field.

TEX 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Gallo, Choo
GPP note – not my favorite stack tonight but worthy of attention

ARI 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Peralta, Jones, Marte, and spot-starts like JRM types
GPP note – I think I’ll have shares here for sure

SDP Padres @ SFG Giants

Odds:  SDP -125, 7.5 o/u

Flying well under radars, the Padres have some bats that can produce.  SF is not typically the place that happens, but when drawing softer pitching, you throw your hat in the ring.  I won’t take more than one-offs from SFG bats, but they have a couple cheaper guys here I’ll look to as well, especially in my deGrom or Cole lineups.

SDP 5 Star Plays – Renfroe
4 Star Plays – Machado, Myers
GPP note – very gpp and probably low owned

SFG 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Solarte, Belt
GPP note – Brandon Belt has double homer upside and people will reach for many 1B before him.

MIL Brewers @ LAA Angels

Odds:  MIL -130, 8.5 o/u

Both pitchers here can be attacked tonight.  Both have some upside, but both also have a good bit of downside.

MIL 5 Star Plays – Thames and Arcia (price considered), Grandal
4 Star Plays – Cain, Perez (if playing), Braun
GPP note – too powerful to ignore often.

LAA 5 Star Plays – Trout
4 Star Plays – Goodwin, Pujols
GPP note – Pujols isn’t the same, but he’s hotter than Bour right now and my preferred choice in LAA stacks.

 

Starting Lineups for every game!  And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades.  You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up.  Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….

Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…

Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs.  However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you.  Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition.  There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!

GPP Sleeper stack = MIN – I really want to stack against the chalk, but won’t likely on this big a slate.  It’s a death wish, but something we definitely look to do on smaller slates.  (I share often with our VIPs why).  So, I’ll actually say SEA because they will be lower owned still and have a much better chance at big success again vs the Royals.

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions.  I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too.  All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.

–> Get the Key Today!  Start Winning With Us! <–

I hope to see you inside soon.  Have a blessed and profitable day.