Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion. Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction. I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within. I explain in three quick steps…
Identifying Quality MLB Pitching
I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price. I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories. Some days I can find cheaper pitching. Other days, I’m paying all the way up. Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.
APR 6 Report – Early slate is kind of a crapshoot. Lots of middling pitchers, and I don’t really have a favorite at first look. Paddack has a small sample size, but STL doesn’t typically handle pitchers they’ve never seen well…..so that could go either way….solid gpp pick. Matz might be the least likely to blow up again, but he doesn’t have much upside. Wacha, when healthy, can be an amazing pitcher, so I tend to lean on him earlier in seasons, especially in matchups with opponents that like to strikeout….which Padres typically do. I don’t see myself playing up for Corbin or down for Pineda given their opponents’ bats are swinging well.
Main Slate – Do we dare go back to Coors for pitching? Jon Gray has great home splits, but LA is dangerous top to bottom…..gpp. Walker Beuhler I didn’t look up yet, but if a cold COL team scored 6 yesterday, they have that in them again and Beuhler might be in a little more trouble than usual. Both carry solid metrics, but I’m inclined to leave both on the shelf. Barnes vs the Cubs might be where I go on Fanduel with that cheap pricing and near 500 KScore. I’m not fond of tackling ARI in their hitter’s park with David Price. There isn’t a lot to like on this list, but those off the list are worse. Sort of another pick your poison slate of pitching.
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
APR 6 Report – We have some bad pitching to attack based on DFSA Grades and SIERA. I like to focus on teams facing a pitcher with both metrics in the red on the graphic above. Today, I’ll be looking harder into the offenses of STL, SEA, MIN, KCR, DET, and maybe CIN, but I don’t know how much I can trust CIN and their poor start. KCR is very intriguing to me and might come off lower owned, as might DET…..sneaky shootout warning there.
Main Slate – Based on pitcher ratings, MIA is actually stackable tonight and I won’t be shocked if they go off. Who? I have no idea. OAK, BOS, ARI again, and NYY also make the list. But, we need to pay attention to the stronger, or hotter, bats in these offenses as some of the lesser talented teams are swinging hotter bats than the huge Yankee names…..and even with the pitching, Coors is always in play.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks. And, I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then. And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced. And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
KCR Royals @ DET Tigers
Odds: DET -135, 9 o/u
Nice to see Vegas sees what I do in the bad pitching. Both sides stackable and playable here. Maybe the game total attracts a few people, but the game shouldn’t be super chalky….and might be a sneaky shootout.
KCR 5 Star Plays – Gordon
4 Star Plays – Mondesi, O’Hearn
GPP note – hopefully lower owned game
DET 5 Star Plays – Goodrum (in 29 PAs, carrying .515 wOBA)
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – hard to find compadres to stack with here, but I’m building around Goodrum
WAS Nationals @ NYM Mets
Odds: WAS -135, 7 o/u
I should probably run away from this game and focus on the pitching of either Corbin or Matz instead, but I like some of the bats in this one and might play one-offs in all formats or make a couple stacks in larger field gpps. Ownerships, again, should be down. This time because of the game total, not the names on the lineup cards.
WAS 5 Star Plays – Rendon
4 Star Plays – Robles, Soto
GPP note – Matz doesn’t blow up often, but he’s not a shutdown pitcher type either.
NYM 5 Star Plays – Ramos, McNeil
4 Star Plays – Alonso
GPP note – great leverage, as Corbin might be popular on this slate
CIN Reds @ PIT Pirates
Odds: PIT -130, 8 o/u
I don’t want to be lazy and completely write them off here………….but, yeh, I kind of do.
CIN 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Suarez
GPP note – not when running this cold
PIT 5 Star Plays – Moran, Cabrera
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – not enough to surround the hotter hitters for stacks
MIN Twins @ PHI Phillies
Odds: PHI -145, 8.5 o/u
We have some bats here, but more on the Phillies side. MIN has a couple hotter bats, and Nelson Cruz is always a candidate to win the slate with a big game.
MIN 5 Star Plays – Polanco, Cruz
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – somewhat stackable
PHI 5 Star Plays – Harper, Franco
4 Star Plays – Herrera, McCutcheon
GPP note – more stackable than MIN
SEA Mariners @ CWS White Sox
Odds: SEA -120, 9 o/u
Another game we should focus on for bats over pitching. Stacking with combos of the KCR/DET game make a lot of sense. Being SEA was recently on a tear, it won’t be the sneaky side of the game…………..stacking against Mike Leake isn’t exactly sneaky, either, though.
SEA 5 Star Plays – none…they are showing indications of cooling off
4 Star Plays – Bruce, Encarnacion, Narvaez, Vogelbach (if playing)
GPP note – somewhat stackable
CWS 5 Star Plays – Moncada, Anderson
4 Star Plays – Castillo, Alonso, Abreu
GPP note – hotter running bats facing a pitcher that might have a great game……or might implode
SDP Padres @ STL Cardinals
Odds: STL -125, 7.5 o/u
We see competent pitching being suggested by Vegas here. Like I said above, Wacha can be great early in the season, and the Cardinals can be carved up by people they haven’t seen before. This spot is a giant question mark for both arms and bats and likely best saved for gpps.
SDP 5 Star Plays – Renfroe (if playing)
4 Star Plays – Cordero
GPP note – somewhat stackable
STL 5 Star Plays – Wong
4 Star Plays – DeJong
GPP note – tough to get excited about STL bats right now…
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NYY Yankees @ BAL Orioles
Odds: NYY -190, 8.5 o/u
BAL has been a little bit of an early surprise, but they aren’t great and this might not last long. The Yankees aren’t running super hot, and that won’t last either. These teams will be what we think they are by the end of the year. But, while timing is right, play the recency…
NYY 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – LeMahieu, Torres, Sanchez
GPP note – never lower owned, but these names will be lower owned typically than a Stanton or Judge…and make good stacks accordingly
BAL 5 Star Plays – Rickard
4 Star Plays – Villar
GPP note – pretty much gpp stackable almost nightly
CHC Cubs @ MIL Brewers
Odds: MIL -130, 8.5 o/u
Always a potential shootout in Miller Park (or whatever its called now) when the Cubs and Brewers play because of their offenses. The pitching here isn’t the worst on the slate, so it’s not a huge priority to stack…….but it’s always in play, especially on Coors slates because the ownership usually goes to Coors.
CHC 5 Star Plays – Contreras, Descalso
4 Star Plays – Zagunis (if playing), Rizzo might be heating up
GPP note – peaks my interest a little on Coors slates.
MIL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Yelich, Shaw, Perez (if playing), Cain, Arcia (dirt cheap), Grandal
GPP note – a lot to like here, but just under 5 star plays…
OAK Athletics @ HOU Astros
Odds: HOU -140, 9 o/u
Another attackable game due to game total tonight. Still waiting on Houston bats, though….
OAK 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Laureano, Chapman, Davis
GPP note – not my favorite stack tonight, but large field gpp worthy
HOU 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Bregman, Correa
GPP note – i’m not on them just yet.
MIA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Odds: ATL -180, 8.5 o/u
I mentioned the MIA bats are viable tonight. I don’t like the offense as a whole, but this is definitely a gpp-winner if it pans out. ATL carries a lot of my focus tonight with how hot they are hitting the last few games. So many of them are playable, and a few have reasonable prices still.
MIA 5 Star Plays – Prado
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – very gpp and very low owned
ATL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Flowers/McCann, Albies, Freeman, Swanson
GPP note – might be under the radar a little tonight with Coors and MIL and ARI at home…
BOS Red Sox @ ARI Diamondbacks
Odds: BOS -145, 8.5 o/u
Sometimes Vegas is just wrong. This -145 is from David Price’s name and Boston being a popular team with a big offense. Thing is: The Boston offense isn’t scoring, and the Red Sox aren’t pitching. I’m not saying we get another 15 run night from ARI. I’m saying Vegas is slow on the uptake here with how hot ARI is hitting….
BOS 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Swihart (if playing), JD Martinez
GPP note – always in play, but a bit disappointing to start the year. The park is too good, though, to completely fade them if making multiple lineups.
ARI 5 Star Plays – Avila/Ryan-Murphy, Dyson, Jones, Peralta, Marte
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – hotter running bats in a great park facing pitching off to a slow start…back to the well
LAD Dodgers @ COL Rockies
Odds: LAD -130, 10 o/u
Not often this is our hammer game. I like it! But, how much of it will I have? I need to watch ownership reports (exclusive to DFSA members in our Domination Station optimizer a couple hours before lock). The pitching is competent enough, I might continue to fade this game in search of softer/greener pastures. I’m hoping, initially, the field gets trapped here in a game that fails to pay off the pricing of these players.
LAD 5 Star Plays – Bellinger is hitting everything from righties and lefties…doesn’t matter
4 Star Plays – Pederson, Kike, Barnes/Martin
GPP note – of course, it’s Coors……but it’s not sneaky
COL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – you can always throw darts here, but no one in particular stands out as hitting well currently. And, don’t try and tell me you can predict it. You are lying to yourself. You play this game because you know the historical numbers and are taking shots on bats…..no other reason with no one on the team hitting over a .400 wOBA in the last week……or for the year yet.
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = Game stack KCR/DET – It probably isn’t too sneaky, but concentrating on only the one game might give you some differentiation as people are also going to focus on SEA and other big brand names.
ATL Braves – Albies/Freeman/Swanson/catcher – Very under the radar tonight with all the hitter’s parks.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.