Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion. Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction. I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within. I explain in three quick steps…
Identifying Quality MLB Pitching
I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price. I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories. Some days I can find cheaper pitching. Other days, I’m paying all the way up. Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.
APR 5 Report – Not the slate I thought I’d see for pitching when I saw it was 8 games. This isn’t good honestly. Thornton is a small sample size guy and the 662 KScore is great, but won’t last unless he’s better than Max Scherzer and Chris Sale over his career. That said, he’s worth a gamble being he hung 30+ on DET on opening day. I realize CLE is better than DET, but they aren’t exactly hot right now and the gamble still applies. But, be forewarned, it’s risky. McHugh is likely safe, but even OAK is running sort of hot and HOU isn’t giving run support. But, the 500+ KScore and Vegas odds suggest he’s one of the better options on the slate. Same goes for Bieber, but we give a little in KScore. However, I’d rather attack the TOR bats than OAK right now…..and the DFSA grade might be the tiebreaker I’m looking for to roll with some Beebs….
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
APR 5 Report – I’d post the screenshot if it was worth anything today. Just look above to get a sense of what you should see when you filter our research station. I’m not stacking Angels tonight, even though they rate fairly well, and PHI has weather issues, so proceed with caution….or an umbrella. I do, however, like HOU on paper (just hope they finally come through), then Cubs, Phillies, Rangers (love Rangers right now), and the deadly as sin Brewers. All stackable and all playable tonight. But no one particularly stands out as in a pure smash spot.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks. And, I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then. And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced. And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
MIN Twins @ PHI Phillies
Odds: PHI -165, 8 o/u
Weather Warning! I don’t sound this alarm unless there are good chances of rain all the way through the game. I’m going to play this game very lightly, if at all. I’m completely off pitchers.
MIN 5 Star Plays – Cruz
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – ultimate weather gamble.
PHI 5 Star Plays – Harper
4 Star Plays – Franco, McCutcheon, Hoskins, Segura
GPP note – weather might lower ownership…..it should, anyway
CIN Reds @ PIT Pirates
Odds: PIT -135, 7.5 o/u
I’ve seen enough of these two already to realize it’s not a game I want to target for DFS. These offenses will heat up at some point, but I’m waiting for them to do so before diving in headlong to stacks on a large slate.
CIN 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
PIT 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
TOR Blue Jays @ CLE Indians
Odds: CLE -150, 7.5 o/u
Neither team is rolling well offensively, and this game has a couple of the better pitchers on the slate tonight. The 7.5 out of Vegas is telling me to stay away. But, if you must……..
TOR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Tellez, Grichuk – GPPs only
GPP note – many have been burned by TOR…ownership might be low, but I’d still pick on softer pitching on a slate this size.
CLE 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Santana, Ramirez, Martin – GPPs only
GPP note – same as above TOR note
BOS Red Sox @ ARI Diamondbaks
Odds: BOS -125, 8.5 o/u
Oddsmakers are getting leery of BOS too. But, gpp stacks here make some sense. This is a great hitters park and BOS is likely getting pissed at even themselves and itching to come home. Give me a softer pitcher and BOS may feast. Arizona bats are running fairly well, too. Porcello doesn’t intimidate me enough to fade them completely. I’ll have shares in gpps.
BOS 5 Star Plays – Martinez
4 Star Plays – Moreland
GPP note – yes, stack them…..but expect your heart to continue to get broken
ARI 5 Star Plays – Walker, Peralta
4 Star Plays – Dyson, Avila, Jones, Marte (if bumped to the 2 hole)
GPP note – stackable in gpps
Here at DFS Army, we win……and we win a lot. From smaller budgets and cash games to bigger whales swinging for the 6-figure fences, we’ve guided every type and every experience level for going on 4 seasons now. Our members rave about the responsiveness and interaction between coaches and players, and we actually form friendships that span sports. There is no community more invested in your success, nor a community that takes greater pride in your wins and sweats as we watch and root for you into the wee hours of mornings. Don’t believe me? See our Wall of Wins and just scroll through page after page and sport after sport…
MIA Marlins @ ATL Braves
Odds: ATL -160, 8 o/u
There is some BVP to note on the Marlins side, but my focus is on Braves bats. I’ll have several lineups containing Braves tonight. I’m falling in love with Ozzie Albies again, and Dansby Swanson is making a play for a role as my mistress…
MIA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Granderson, Prado
GPP note – none
ATL 5 Star Plays – Albies
4 Star Plays – Freeman, Swanson, point chasers will love Markakis (hint, I can be a point chaser…..love!)
GPP note – absolutely a green light stack in tourneys
OAK Athletics @ HOU Astros
Odds: HOU -165, 8.5 o/u
Gotta love the slow start HOU has jumped out to. OAK is actually hitting better. I do trust HOU pitching to give OAK trouble, but will have some of those bats in tourneys. HOU I might wait a little on to heat up, but they are in a really good spot tonight if you want to load up yourself. I won’t argue the play at all.
OAK 5 Star Plays – Davis
4 Star Plays – Chapman, Piscotty, Semien
GPP note – by all means take the gamble…..sometimes hot bats outweigh decent pitching
HOU 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Springer, Correa, Reddick (value), Brantley (DFSA Grade)
GPP note – probably not contrarian, but the slate is big enough you should be fine
CHC Cubs @ MIL Brewers
Odds: MIL -135, 8.5 o/u
In this park? I’m surprised the total is only 8.5 with these two talented offenses facing off. CHC has walk issues right now, too, and the Brewers might feast off that bullpen. CHC can hold its own, though, and has plenty of affordable talent in the middle to lower half of the lineup. Not a horrible game stacking idea here, either.
CHC 5 Star Plays – Contreras, Descalso (if starting)
4 Star Plays – Schwarber, Baez
GPP note – probably affordable with the upside of Thornton in TOR
MIL 5 Star Plays – Yelich (even LvL)
4 Star Plays – Cain
GPP note – Lineup is littered with big bats. I like Moose’s numbers, but he’s LvL and carries splits…………making him a really sneaky gpp play in this stack if you dare.
TEX Rangers @ LAA Angels
Odds: LAA -120, 8.5 o/u
8.5 is a high total for a game at night out west. It’s telling of a big offense. So, why LAA is favored, I don’t know. I’ll be all over Rangers and fade Angels largely outside of Trout. The Rangers are really hot right now and I want to stay on that train until it flings me given my other choices around the league are pretty weak.
TEX 5 Star Plays – Mazara (if healthy), Cabrera, Andrus
4 Star Plays – Gallo, Pence
GPP note – I’ll keep loading up
LAA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Trout
GPP note – none
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = PHI Cutch/Segura/Harper – Play the weather and counter some Bieber. It’s not some core, though, I’m running in tons of lineups. It’s just a sneaky one with numbers on my side, including ownership for the power it delivers.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
–> Get the Key Today! Start Winning With Us! <–
I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.