Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion. Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction. I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within. I explain in three quick steps…
Identifying Quality MLB Pitching
I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price. I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories. Some days I can find cheaper pitching. Other days, I’m paying all the way up. Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.
APR 3 Report – Pay up day again for Fanduel. For Draftkings, you are going to be gambling. I was hoping to find decent SP2s, but I’m not seeing it. I will likely make Taillon my SP1 and play around, but I’m almost certain Draftkings pricing forces a gamble at pitching somewhere…..furthering my belief MLB is a gpp game, not suited for cash often. As for Fanduel, Taillon is a decent gamble with the way the Cardinals strike out early this year, but I likely pay up to Stripling and attack the weak Giants bats. Cole is the best pure combo on the slate, but I never mind saving $2000 in salary for “nearly as good.”
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
APR 3 Report – Only a couple bonafide bad pitchers we can attack with HOU and BOS (theoretically, but I’d temper expectations on BOS some). The middling pitchers need to carry high SIERA numbers, and I’m only seeing two others. I’ll mix in ATL and CHC stacks. Those are my main four stacks tonight, but really anything is on the table and we need to remain open-minded to construction dictating different directions regarding hunting value to make things fit together. Never use rigid rules in such a fluid sport.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks. And, I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then. And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced. And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
STL Cardinals @ PIT Pirates
Odds: PIT -110, 7.5 o/u
Only a few on either side producing recent wOBAs. Both pitchers are solid, but neither are bulletproof. There is good BvP on both sides if you know where to look. I’ll save those numbers for our VIPs inside the army.
STL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Wong, Goldschmidt, Carpenter
GPP note – 5 game slates we vary our stacks some to cover more bases we can’t typically cover on fuller slates.
PIT 5 Star Plays – Moran
4 Star Plays – Cervelli, Frazier
GPP note – sneaky stack for sure
CHC Cubs @ ATL Braves
Odds: ATL -135, 9 o/u
Sneaky shootout tonight. We have an odd combination of Cubs hitting fairly well and Braves with some history against the Cubs pitcher (again, specific history will be given to VIPs). If both come together, you have a game capable of giving a bunch of runs. Game stack viable in GPPs. Cubs stacks viable in most formats.
CHC 5 Star Plays – Schwarber, Baez
4 Star Plays – Bryant, Contreras, Descalso (if starting)
GPP note – load up
ATL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Freeman, Albies, Swanson
GPP note – you might need some Swanson here for savings
HOU Astros @ TEX Rangers
Odds: HOU -225, 9 o/u
Everyone will be looking to Gerrit Cole, but this Rangers offense is pretty hot. I’d be a little more cautious than usual here. I’d consider Rangers bats and mini-stacks in GPPs. The smaller the slate, the more inclined I am to take risks against what should be chalky pitching. We’ve seen enough early this year already to know the play is viable. Houston finds themselves in yet another pretty good matchup. Have you lost faith? It’s hard to keep going to the well and being let down for the most part. But, welcome to baseball.
HOU 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Marisnick, Correa
GPP note – not sneaky….but as cold as they are, consider the fade.
TEX 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none, on paper
GPP note – Cabrera, Mazara would anchor a gpp stack
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BOS Red Sox @ OAK Athletics
Odds: BOS -140, 8.5 o/u
For Boston, this colder start might be travel related. If so, that stinks because there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet. They still need to go through Arizona for 3 before returning home. Another spot I might largely fade outside of a few bats until they show better signs of turning around. Until they, realize they are mostly overpriced based on brand name. However, there is a lot to like tonight on the Oakland side….let’s look.
BOS 5 Star Plays – Martinez
4 Star Plays – Moreland
GPP note – I prefer fading in gpps because the ownership will be high and the offense is rather cold
OAK 5 Star Plays – Chapman, Davis
4 Star Plays – Semien, Cahna (if starting)
GPP note – not a pure green light, but the Boston pitching has started the season almost unprepared
SFG Giants @ LAD Dodgers
Odds: LAD -195, 7 o/u
SFG 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Sandoval, Panik
GPP note – on a 5 game slate, just about any stack is viable
LAD 5 Star Plays – Barnes
4 Star Plays – Bellinger, Hernandez, Pollock
GPP note – Probably the best stack on the slate being HOU and BOS are not clicking yet.
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = PIT using Frazier, Moran, Cervelli – No one is going to have this stack, and it’s not going to win you a gpp. The hope is this stack is cheap enough to trigger the stack that will win you the gpp while providing a solid enough BVP-based floor to get you into the cash so your main stack pushes you into the deeper money.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.