Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion. Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction. I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within. I explain in three quick steps…
Identifying Quality MLB Pitching
I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price. I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories. Some days I can find cheaper pitching. Other days, I’m paying all the way up. Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.
APR 16 Report – Huge slate worth of options. I won’t be terribly comprehensive, but I will offer my favorites. If paying up is your thing Strasburg finds himself in a great spot to exercise max KScore. Glasnow carries better Vegas odds and the pitcher’s park, but a little lower KScore. McHugh looks solid, but OAK has been offensive and Draftkings has the HOU pitcher priced down as a result. Maeda worries people with short starts, but CIN isn’t very threatening and Chavez Ravine is a nice boost to pitchers…..and his KScore is up there for the slate, lots of potential. Woodruff gets the Cardinals, but has a very low DFSA grade. I like his upside, but the Cardinals are hitting, so this one comes with significant risk. And, the shiny new toy seems to be the ATL pitcher, Fried. His KScore feels a little low and he carries solid Vegas odds into a matchup with a ARI team that has cooled off a little recently. Can he continue? I left off several other names like Paxton because I’d rather pay up to tackle the Giants than attack the Red Sox. Or, I can take the solid win odds in Maeda with a similar KScore and same price in what is likely a safer matchup for Maeda. This constant struggle makes pitching a little harder today on a 14 game slate with plenty or reasonable options.
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
APR 16 Report – If we look at poor DFSA Graded pitchers (inside DFS Army Research Station), we find teams like HOU, MIN, KC, CWS, WAS, and LAD in good spots. We can also look to runs or even starting pitcher ERA for their respective teams to see very similar lists of opponents to stack. The above teams are all facing pitchers with SIERAs over 4.50 on the year. MIN, KC and CWS also face pitchers having trouble on both sides of the plate……a usual indicator of relentless stacking possibilities. STL, CLE, COL, and TEX are likely lower owned stacks that can play a huge part in your portfolio today, as well.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks. And, I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then. And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced. And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
BOS Red Sox @ NYY Yankees
Odds: NYY -115, 8.5 o/u
Chris Sale and James Paxton are typically not pitchers to attack. I would say the same thing today, but if you must, there are some bats you can use. I happen to think there are better teams down in this slate in better spots.
BOS 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Bogaerts, Martinez, Moreland
GPP note – might be lower owned for BOS standards, but on this slate, there really aren’t going to be any dominant stacks to avoid for leverage.
NYY 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – none
PIT Pirates @ DET Tigers
Odds: PIT -120, 8 o/u
One-off potential, but neither team is some offensive juggernaut to stack. Neither is also facing such a horrid pitcher we can just blindly load up.
PIT 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Bell
GPP note – none
DET 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Goodrum, Beckham
GPP note – Goodrum has been a great solo play for gpps
SFG Giants @ WAS Nationals
Odds: WAS -200, 8 o/u
I’m not attacking Strasburg, but can’t honestly blame you if you do with the way early stud pitching has performed so far in 2019. I also don’t see a ton to target with Nationals bats, either. The 8 game total tells me there are greener pastures, also.
SFG 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Longoria
GPP note –none
WAS 5 Star Plays – Rendon
4 Star Plays – Eaton
GPP note – none
NYM Mets @ PHI Phillies
Odds: PHI -120, 9 o/u
Matz can give up runs, but he doesn’t typically implode. And, Pivetta can also be bad. Can this game sort of shoot out? Sure. Will it? Likely not. I won’t include these guys as major pieces of stacks tonight, but I’ll have some exposure to various parts of this game for sure…..both sides.
NYM 5 Star Plays – Alonso
4 Star Plays – Conforto, Nimmo
GPP note – I’m not opposed to a stack here, but it’s not a foundation of my building process tonight
PHI 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Hoskins, Harper, McCutcheon
GPP note – Same as above……exposure, but not one of my higher ranking stacks on the night.
BAL Orioles @ TBR Rays
Odds: TB -265, 8 o/u
Baltimore has been scoring lately, but Glasnow and TB pitching has been good. Not a spot I need to get tricky with BAL bats. However, the TB bats are a little interesting to me, especially the top half of the order.
BAL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Mancini, Smith jr, yes………Chris Davis has potential to go on a run right now
GPP note – none
TBR 5 Star Plays – Lowe, Meadows
4 Star Plays – Kiermeier, Pham, Garcia, Adames
GPP note – I won’t get nuts with stacking Rays, but I will a few times.
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CHC Cubs @ MIA Marlins
Odds: CHC -145, 8 o/u
Many of us have been attacking Marlins pitching this year, and while that has brought mediocre results, it’s still not a horrible method. The anemic offense will show bursts, but over a long season, they will still be one of the worst run scoring offenses in the league. As a result, I don’t use a lot of Marlins bats, either….and won’t be tonight. Cubs bats are in a better spot, and I’ll have my pieces.
CHC 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Heyward, Contreras, Rizzo
GPP note – none
MIA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Anderson, Wallach
GPP note – none
ARI Diamondbacks @ ATL Braves
Odds: ATL -160, 8.5 o/u
ARI and ATL are both among top 10 scoring offenses over the past two weeks, but Robbie Ray can pitch and that downgrades the potential of an ATL stack….unless we gamble on getting bad Robbie tonight. Max Fried is the diaper dandy of the league right now and has pitched rather well, downgrading the ARI offense some. So, it’s not an overall game I’m going nuts with……outside of a few gambles on one offs that can hit homeruns if they catch the right pitch.
ARI 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Escobar, Walker
GPP note – none
ATL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Acuna, Markakis, Donaldson, Camargo
GPP note – none
STL Cardinals @ MIL Brewers
Odds: MIL -120, 9 o/u
We saw a shootout last night with several homers on each side. Yes, Yelich is nuts when playing STL apparently, and he’s going to likely be highly owned tonight. I might fade him off due to Cardinals giving him the Barry Bonds treatment after throwing in the towel on his 8/15, 7 homers, 15 RBI, and 2.50+ OPS vs them this year….that’s just disgusting. I’m fine gambling on them never pitching to him again. Flaherty has great upside, but this MIL lineup is just damaging to about anyone on any given day. STL faces Woodruff and he also has potential against a STL lineup prone to striking out some this year. However, STL can also be offensive and strike out of nowhere. On smaller slates, I’d be much more interested in this game. But, on larger slates, I’m more interested in spreading my ownerships out and won’t have quite as much of this game as I might otherwise like.
STL 5 Star Plays – DeJong
4 Star Plays – Ozuna, Wong
GPP note – interesting play on larger slate tonight
MIL 5 Star Plays – Yelich (newly appointed Cardinal Killer)
4 Star Plays – Grandal, Moustakas, Gamel
GPP note – not many will go against Flaherty on a large slate, but MIL can get into anyone.
TOR Blue Jays @ MIN Twins
Odds: MIN -150, 9 o/u
TOR has been a continual disappointment offensively, and I’m not attacking The Beebs tonight with such mediocrity. MIN, however, is one of my favorite stacks on the night facing Anibel Sanchez. Granted, I’m not sure who I’ll use. I’ll be sifting through trying to find the hotter bats like Garver, but I won’t omit potential like Nelson Cruz, either.
TOR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Smoak, Gurriel, Jansen
GPP note – none
MIN 5 Star Plays – Garver
4 Star Plays – Polanco, Rosario, Cruz
GPP note – probably lower owned, but definitely in a good spot.
LAA Angels @ TEX Rangers
Odds: no current line
Neither team is pitching particularly well, so we need to look to bats here. Even if the starters have decent outings, I don’t see any dominating performances here. The bullpens can be had later in the game, so don’t necessarily panic if nothing happens early. There are pieces of this game I’m going to want.
LAA 5 Star Plays – Trout
4 Star Plays – LaStella, Bour
GPP note – none
TEX 5 Star Plays – Choo, Gallo
4 Star Plays – Andrus, Cabrera
GPP note – 12 runs last night, nothing remarkably changes in the matchup here
You see above you a unique to DFS Army members metric combining hard contact with BABIP to measure which players are hitting the ball hard but not seeing the typical results. The gamble here is normalization of their numbers and a pending hot streak. Last night, it worked well with 9 of the 20 players hitting home runs and having solid games. More importantly to me is I get a nearly 50% shot at a homer, but none of these players put up a 0 last night. MLB is about avoiding 0s, and this is a list capable of producing great cores and one-offs alike.
KCR Royals @ CWS White Sox
Odds: CWS -115, 9.5 o/u
We have another game in a series between teams with horrible pitching staffs. We want pieces of this game on both sides. I might make them my secondary stacks rather than making them full 4 or 5 man teams, but I’m going to be in this game again and again and again until they shore up their pitching woes.
KCR 5 Star Plays – Dozier
4 Star Plays – Gordon, Merrifield
GPP note – yes, stacks of the top half of this order
CWS 5 Star Plays – Anderson
4 Star Plays – McCann, Abreu
GPP note – several creative stacks used in conjunction with other main teams with more firepower….think, value stack, if you will.
COL Rockies @ SDP Padres
Odds: SDP -140, 7.5 o/u
I won’t often attack a 7.5 total game, but COL is in a sneaky spot here. The Rockies aren’t exactly hot with the bat, but Margevicius doesn’t grade out well in this matchup and Rockies bats are suppressed. I’m not using a lot of this stack idea, but I will have a light mix of bats here. I won’t completely fade Padres, either. Jon Gray has an early ERA of 4.19 on the year and a few Padres are swinging the bat well with history of seeing him being they are division foes.
COL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Reynolds
GPP note – always get lower ownership when Rockies are on the road
SDP 5 Star Plays – Renfroe
4 Star Plays – Reyes, Tatis, Hedges
GPP note – a little sneaky vs Gray
HOU Astros @ OAK Athletics
Odds: HOU -165, 8.5 o/u
HOU isn’t exactly ripping covers off balls, but they do get a shot at Marco Estrada’s high SIERA and nearly 5.00 ERA tonight. I hate going back to the Astros well again and again expecting things to change, but I will again tonight. HOU won’t be held down all year. Oakland has been scoring, but McHugh grades out as a better than average pitcher on tonight’s large slate. I don’t need many Athletics. If you like them, there are a few playable bats for sure.
HOU 5 Star Plays – Altuve
4 Star Plays – Bregman, Marisnick, Correa, Chirinos
GPP note – ownership has been lower this year, but I do think people venture this direction some tonight…..not enough for you to fear, but don’t expect you will be alone on them.
OAK 5 Star Plays – Pinder
4 Star Plays – Davis, Profar, Semien, Chapman
GPP note – I won’t get nuts with stacking A’s tonight.
CIN Reds @ LAD Dodgers
Odds: LAD -185, 8.5 o/u
Maeda is one of my favorite pitchers on the night, so I won’t even have Reds bats as hedges. I will, however, be attacking Mahle with Dodgers……and so will everyone else. I expect this stack to be rather popular for a large slate.
CIN 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Suarez
GPP note – none
LAD 5 Star Plays – Pederson
4 Star Plays – Bellinger, Muncy, Hernandez
GPP note – probably popular stack
CLE Indians @ SEA Mariners
Odds: CLE -115, 8 o/u
We all know what SEA is doing, but getting Shane Bieber isn’t a great matchup when we have such other options. I don’t likely have a lot of Mariners tonight as a result. I don’t like the slower start the Indians have jumped out to, but Mike Leake isn’t intimidating to me. He can have good starts, but he can also give up a ton of contact when not right being he doesn’t have a lot of strikeout potential. I like CLE as a hammer stack of sorts tonight, but it’s risky being they aren’t running hot.
CLE 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Martin, Ramirez, Miller, Santana
GPP note – might slip under radars being its out west and the game starts late tonight
SEA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Encarnacion, Bruce, Haniger
GPP note – I won’t be heavily invested, but you can’t argue the runs they have collectively put up.
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = CLE – I just don’t see a lot of people running out this far west on a large slate, unless they are targeting Dodgers.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.