Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process
A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion. Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction. I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within. I explain in three quick steps…
Identifying Quality MLB Pitching
I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price. I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories. Some days I can find cheaper pitching. Other days, I’m paying all the way up. Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.
APR 10 Report – Risk vs Reward is today’s theme. We see several names on the slate that won’t even make my list due to lower K upside. I’m a firm believer that Ks bury runs, and I believe the win is a lucky thing that sort of happens almost independent of the starter. So, I hunt Ks and don’t apologize for it. Robbie Ray leads the slate in potential with his 600+ KScore….and is typically boom or bust. I would likely start him if I only made one lineup and live with it. But, if making even a second lineup, I’m reaching for someone else…..likely Kenta Maeda. That can also prove dumb because the Cardinals strikeout, but can also hit about anyone. I don’t mind Nick Pivetta facing the Nationals again, and I think in terms of “safety” on this particular list of names, Colin McHugh takes the prize. Why no Paxton or Syndergaard? Matchups and price tags. I can get better KScores for $2000 less on Fanduel and that is always more fun for me than having to find wimpy leadoff guys to fit value. I’d rather be able to run out a pitcher that has a legit shot at a great game, then surround him with a quality stack, and play some larger leagues and smaller tourneys. Baseball is so flukey, I don’t play a lot of cash games here. I love the bigger, but winnable contests. For more details on that angle of MLB, simply find the link at the bottom of the page and become a VIP. I live in our coaching rooms and have already delayed the release of our article today because I’ve been helping people discuss strategy for a few hours.
Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses
When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators. Look at all that green circled! These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble). To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.
APR 10 Report – We can use a combo of bad DFSA grades, high implied runs, and high SIERAs for target pitchers to find great stacking options today. Those hitting my list are simply – PHI, SEA, LAD, ARI, and OAK. I might temper back the LAD a little because Flaherty is really no joke. I might even add in PIT. And, I will have a super sneaky stack for VIPs in our coaching picks pages……you’ll never see this one coming! And, I have numbers to back the play.
How To Find MLB Hitters – Trending wOBA
Here is a page in DFS Army’s Research Station from which you can build entire lineups. Trending wOBA…specifically the L7 column. I’m a huge believer in MLB hot streaks. And, I will ride them off and on all year. People will shout that a guy is heating up or cooling off, but I prefer to watch this column over listening to the voices. I won’t miss a guy by more than about 3 days. If he gets hot, I’ll see it soon enough, and jump on board then. And, I’ll get off a formerly hot player faster than most now, too. Remember, pricing trails production in DFS, and it goes up much faster than it comes down. When a guy is running hot, he’s usually underpriced. And, when he cools off, he stays overpriced for a long time. Use this tab to help you figure that out………..and ask me inside our coaching channels as a VIP. This is my foundational building block for the next 6 months…..and it only takes a week to populate.
Filtered yesterday to show your Drafktings guys <3500 in salary with at least 10 plate appearances on the year. We are going to need value today, and our Research Station allows you to find it in mere seconds once you have access to the tool and know how to manipulate it a little.
OAK Athletics @ BAL Orioles
Odds: OAK -140, 9.5 o/u
The run totals just keep creeping higher as these games keep scoring runs. We’ll be back here again tonight and looking to keep the train rolling one more day.
OAK 5 Star Plays – Phegley, Pinder
4 Star Plays – Laureano (if playing), Canha
GPP note – Khris Davis can never be fully ignored
BAL 5 Star Plays – Mancini
4 Star Plays – Rickard, Villar
GPP note – none
WAS Nationals @ PHI Phillies
Odds: PHI -165, 9 o/u
Much higher run total today suggesting a better hitting environment if things shake out normally. Being baseball, things never shake out normally, though. Lots of solid bats to take in this one tonight.
WAS 5 Star Plays – Rendon, Soto
4 Star Plays – Robles, Gomes/Suzuki
GPP note – Zimmerman BvP – 5/9 with a double and a homer
PHI 5 Star Plays – Hoskins
4 Star Plays – Harper
GPP note – Harper BvP – 5/18 with a double and 2 homers. (Our vips get these daily, too. And, there are plenty on tonight’s slate!)
MIN Twins @ NYM Mets
Odds: NYM -195, 7.5 o/u
Can MIN do it again? They have the hot bats and Syndergaard has jumped out of the gates a little slow this season. Mets bats are cooling off in places, too, but a few hotties remain…
MIN 5 Star Plays – Garver
4 Star Plays – Polanco, Rosario, Schoop, Astudillo
GPP note – ride the hot bats
NYM 5 Star Plays – Conforto, Alonso
4 Star Plays – JD Davis
GPP note – none
LAD Dodgers @ STL Cardinals
Odds: LAD -110, 8 o/u
Maeda vs Flaherty isn’t something I’m really chomping at the bit to get after with bats. Both pitchers are in play, Maeda moreso in my opinion. But, there are a few bats you can consider if you think one of the pitchers is prone to implosion…
LAD 5 Star Plays – Bellinger
4 Star Plays – Muncy, Kike
GPP note – not a great series for LAD, so might be a decent time to stack them and hopes ownerships are taking a dip.
STL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – DeJong
GPP note – I won’t be stacking against Maeda
NYY Yankees @ HOU Astros
Odds: HOU -120, 8 o/u
Paxton and McHugh are two other pitchers I don’t typically attack with bats. I won’t have a lot of exposure here at these prices.
NYY 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
GPP note – if tackling the beast, Sanchez, Frazier, and Torres are bats I’d use in my stacks.
HOU 5 Star Plays – Diaz
4 Star Plays – Bregman, Kemp, Chirinos
GPP note – just not enough going around these guys for me to want to really dive in here.
Here at DFS Army, we win……and we win a lot. From smaller budgets and cash games to bigger whales swinging for the 6-figure fences, we’ve guided every type and every experience level for going on 4 seasons now. Our members rave about the responsiveness and interaction between coaches and players, and we actually form friendships that span sports. There is no community more invested in your success, nor a community that takes greater pride in your wins and sweats as we watch and root for you into the wee hours of mornings. Don’t believe me? See our Wall of Wins and just scroll through page after page and sport after sport…
PIT Pirates @ CHC Cubs
Odds: CHC -180….no total yet
There are bats in here I like, mostly from the Pittsburgh side. And, I know they won’t carry ownership in tourneys. Cubs bats are almost always in play for me.
PIT 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Cabrera, Frazier, Bell
GPP note – always a little under the radar
CHC 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Caratini, Heyward, Contreras, Descalso/Zobrist (either one of them is fine currently)
GPP note – none
SEA Mariners @ KCR Royals
Odds: no current line
I think we all know what to do here. Keep piling on SEA bats, avoid Royals pitching, and consider a few Royals bats here and there while largely avoiding the bottom of this lineup.
SEA 5 Star Plays – Vogelbach, Encarnacion
4 Star Plays – Bruce, Beckham, Santana, Gordon
GPP note – always a little under the radar but gaining popularity now
KCR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Gordon, Merrifield
GPP note – never on the radar….well, rarely at least.
TEX Rangers @ ARI Diamondbacks
Odds: ARI -140, 8 o/u
Interesting total in the 2nd best park in MLB…..I might focus more on the ARI side here, but Joey Gallo is getting a little hot and can’t be ignored. This is exactly the type of scenario that can produce gpp bats no one sees coming with their attention on Coors Field.
TEX 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Gallo, Choo, Falefa
GPP note – not my favorite stack tonight but worthy of attention
ARI 5 Star Plays – Ryan-Murphy (if starting)
4 Star Plays – Ahmed, Jones, Dyson
GPP note – I think I’ll have shares here for sure
MIL Brewers @ LAA Angels
Odds: MIL -140, 8 o/u
I don’t like this game total. I don’t like a lot of the totals tonight, actually. But, I will have some shares of bats. Trout is too hot right now, and MIL is always lethal.
MIL 5 Star Plays – Grandal, Arcia
4 Star Plays – Cain, Thames, Perez (if playing)
GPP note – too powerful to ignore often.
LAA 5 Star Plays – Trout
4 Star Plays – Goodwin, Pujols
GPP note – none
Starting Lineups for every game! And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades. You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up. Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….
Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition. There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!
GPP Sleeper stack = PIT – The Pirates have some good numbers vs Darvish, and I don’t at all mind using them especially if I’m paying up for pitching to a Paxton type. Remember, for my super sleeper, you need to be a VIP…
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed and profitable day.