Happy Monday, everyone! nillyJay here again – some of you may already know me; I’m a coach/contributor inside the DFS Army and my main focuses are NASCAR and MLB. If you’re not already, you can find and follow me here on Twitter or, for DFS Army members, in our coaching channels (@nillyJay or just swing by my channel #nillys-garage-nas-mlb).
We have a nice 10-game slate ahead of us today, and I’ve been tasked to point you all in the right direction on how to start your research. As always, if you aren’t familiar with my content, be sure to check out these articles to get up to speed: carnage rating system and tiers & classic batter sheets.
Average Joe outgunning the sharks. Congrats, ziggyboi404!
My take on a consistent process – looking at pitchers
Because I created the carnage rating system, it only makes sense that I would start there when looking at a new slate. Let’s do just that:
- Matt Boyd – He’s looked pretty good this year, but draws a matchup against a very talented (albeit struggling) Red Sox team. It’s certainly risky to take a pitcher against them in cash, but seeing him at the top of the carnage rankings gives me some hope in GPP.
- Yonny Chirinos – Paxton made my Royals look silly yesterday, but Chirinos is no Paxton. There’s certainly some upside here, as they may be recovering from some jet lag and seeing so many strikeouts, but be careful as the Royals can put up some runs in a hurry if the opposing pitcher makes some mistakes.
- Brad Peacock – Another risky matchup, Peacock faces the Twins who just unloaded on the Orioles. While this isn’t Camden Yards, it’s still a good hitting environment, and we haven’t been able to figure out how much Peacock we’ll actually see when he starts. I wouldn’t feel safe going here in cash, but he absolutely has upside in GPP.
- Jack Flaherty – Again, another risky matchup (that seems to be the theme of this slate…), Flaherty has looked good for the most part this year, but has to face one of the most dangerous offenses in all of baseball. I shouldn’t have to say it, but this is a GPP-only target. He does have some strikeout stuff though, so taking a few shots with him could pay off.
- Joe Musgrove – One of the safer matchups today, Musgrove has looked great and faces an Arizona team that isn’t as scary as it once was. They strike out a fair bit (hence the KSCORE), so there’s certainly some upside to be had here, as well as a pretty decent floor.
- Chris Sale – Ah, Chris Sale. One of the greatest pitchers of this generation…off to a pretty rocky start. Fortunately for him, he’ll get a Detroit team that isn’t exactly a powerhouse, so this could be the game he needs to turn the season around. His KSCORE looks pretty poor here, but remember…it’s Chris friggin’ Sale! He still has 10+ strikeout potential, and you won’t want to be off of him when “the game” happens and he turns everything around. Note: as of right now the weather doesn’t look too promising, so keep an eye on the sky!
Finding pitchers to attack
Just like it can help us find pitchers to use, the carnage rating system is great for helping us to find pitchers to attack. Let’s take a look at some of the worst rankings of the day:
Oh my! Lots of juicy matchups here. It’s been a while since we’ve seen a Coors game explode, but this looks like a good start to some fireworks. If you’re playing cash, be sure to grab some pieces from that game.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Pittsburg Pirates
We’ll kick things off with the game that has the lowest total on the board today (currently 7.5). It features two quality pitchers going up against two not-so-explosive offenses, so it’s not too surprising to see a low total here. Godley isn’t quite where he would like to be yet, but he’s still showing decent strikeout stuff, so I’m not sure stacking against him (or Musgrove, for that matter) is the answer today.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Walker
GPP note – Mini-stacks or a one-off might be best
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Bell
GPP note – Mini-stacks or a one-off might be best
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
This game, on the other hand, boasts one of the higher totals, and for good reason. We have a couple of mediocre pitchers facing two potent offenses at Camden Yards, which is a recipe for some fireworks. I’d skip the pitchers here in cash games, but you could take one of them as a punt in GPP hoping the other team is sleeping.
White Sox 5 star plays – Anderson
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Moncada, Garcia, Alonso, Jimenez
GPP note – Great matchup for a few cash game batters and/or GPP stacks
Orioles 5 star plays – Mancini
Orioles 4 star plays – Villar
GPP note – Great matchup, but would lean GPP here for the stacks (one-off for cash)
Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox
The weather looks bad here so I won’t spend a lot of time on it, but if they play, Chris Sale is the top stud on the slate, but Boyd has looked better so far this year. Detroit bats don’t look very intimidating, so this could be the game Sale needs to turn his season around.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Goodrum
GPP note – Weather concerns – stay tuned!
Red Sox 5 star plays – Betts, Martinez
Red Sox 4 star plays – Benintendi, Bogaerts, Moreland
GPP note – Weather concerns – stay tuned!
Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays
We only have a total of 8 runs for this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go over that. Both of these teams have a pretty good chance of going off, and while Keller has done decently, the Kansas City bullpen has been awful.
Royals 5 star plays – Merrifield, Mondesi
Royals 4 star plays – Gordon, Dozier, Owings, Soler
GPP note – Full stacks are good to go here
Rays 5 star plays – Pham
Rays 4 star plays – Lowe, Garcia, Choi, Adames
GPP note – An even better spot for the Rays due to how bad KC’s bullpen is
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
We have a few weather concerns here, though it’s not as scary as the Boston situation. Matz is a quality pitcher, though he’s struggled against righties, so if you attack him, use them. Arrieta has looked mostly good but is allowing .450 xwOBA to lefties, so that might be a good place to attack him.
Phillies 5 star plays – Hoskins, Harper
Phillies 4 star plays – McCutchen, Realmuto
GPP note – Favor the righties
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso, Conforto, Nimmo
GPP note – Favor the lefties
Nice return from this weekend. Congrats, nfhs04!
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Houser makes his 2019 debut against a fairly dangerous Cardinals offense, while the Brewers have the capability to go off against anybody. This looks to be another place where we can expect to see some runs being scored
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Cain, Braun, Grandal
GPP note – A bit of a boom or bust scenario here, but if they go off, they’ll put up some big numbers
Cardinals 5 star plays – Goldschmidt, Carpenter
Cardinals 4 star plays – DeJong, Martinez
GPP note – They get a to face a pitcher in his debut at their field. Stack away here, too
Minnesota Twins at Houston Astros
Another boom or bust scenario, these two teams can easily put up 10+ runs, but it’ll really depend on what we get out of our starters. Both are certainly capable of shutting down the other team for a while, but we don’t know how long we’ll see Peacock for, and the Astros haven’t struck out a lot against Odorizzi in the past. I would lean GPP here for both sides of the game, especially the pitchers.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Cruz, Kepler, Polanco
GPP note – Very boom or bust GPP stacking option
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve, Bregman
Astros 4 star plays – Springer, Correa
GPP note – Same boom, but less likely to bust than the Twins in this matchup
Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
Good ‘ol Coors. As usual, both sides are in play here, but I’m not sure I would trust the pitchers (both are pretty soft to just about everything right now). I could see this one getting out of hand in a hurry.
Nationals 5 star plays – Rendon
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto, Zimmerman
GPP note – You know what to do
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon, Arenado
Rockies 4 star plays – Story, Dahl, McMahon
GPP note – You know what to do
New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels
This one is a little interesting. Happ and Harvey face off, and while neither of them has looked great, we know Happ has some good strikeout stuff and the bottom of this Angels lineup isn’t very scary. Harvey hasn’t had his troll game yet, and it could very well happen against this weakened Yankees offense. I could see this one playing out either way, but I’m leaning towards the under right now.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Voit, Gardner, Frazier
GPP note – Harvey has looked like crap but this offense has been weakened. Might want to grab both sides of this matchup
Angels 5 star plays – Trout
Angels 4 star plays – Pujols, Bour
GPP note – Potentially more difficult matchup going up against Happ. May want to avoid the stacks here
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
This game only has an 8.5 total, which is kind of surprising when you consider the teams and location of this game. Bassitt will make his 2019 debut here against a Rangers offense that just put a beating on the Astros best arms, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do it again here. Minor has looked pretty good, but we know what this Oakland offense is capable of. Tread lightly with the pitchers here, and keep them in your GPP pool.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Choo, Santana
GPP note – Facing a pitcher in his debut at a hitter-friendly ballpark
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Davis, Chapman, Semien, Profar
GPP note – A bit boom or bust, but if they go boom, watch out. Profar faces his old team at his new home for the first time
Tiers!
Like I mentioned earlier, I provide a tiers breakdown for our members every day. I figured since I was running the show today that I would slide in a freebie. Let’s take a look at Tier 6:
DraftKings isn’t messing around with Tier 6 today! There are a lot of big names in here, but one stands out for cash games. There are a few good GPP pivots, as well as a few we could consider fading based on their not-so-great matchup.
Closing thoughts
Thank you for joining me here today! I hope you found this article helpful with your research for today’s slate. I have some more GPP thoughts for you guys in the DFS Army, so be sure to check my channel and #mlb-news-and-notes this afternoon for those.
As always, if you like what you see here and want to experience everything we have to offer, I’d encourage you to consider joining up with us. Just remember to use promo code NILLY to save 20% off for the lifetime of your active membership, for the best deal in daily fantasy sports. Until then, I hope you all have a great week!