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Schnarr’s Super Picks DFS PGA Preview – Valspar Championship

Every week on the PGA Tour a new course means a new set of challenges. This article will examine the course being played and give specific insight on some keys for the week that other previews may be overlooking. This article will also breakdown players who stand out on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Cash Game and GPP formats. Finally, I will be reviewing my picks from before and going into a deeper dive on my Cash Game team in an attempt to better my own process while hopefully helping you with yours. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr

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Review from last week

In this section I will break down the players I wrote up from the prior week, how they did and how I played them in my line-ups.

$10K and up (Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka)

I wrote up about how just about everyone in this group was viable except for Tiger. My thought was if you were looking for a little lower ownership up top the play was to go for Rose or Koepka (they averaged 10.15 and 13.83% ownership) compared to the 13.7, 14.09 and 20.21% of DJ, JT and Rory. I did however write that Rory was my favourite play because of the few hundred in savings and the recent play, while I still liked Rory I did change this slightly to fit in a little bit more JT than the rest of the group but was overweight on all of these guys (minus Tiger). Overall, not a bad start to my teams.

$9K and up (Rickie Fowler, Jon Rahm, Bryson Dechambeau, Jason Day, Sergio Garcia, Xander Schauffele)

As mentioned, Rahm, Sergio and Xander were my three favourites within this group and that stayed the same as the week progressed. I was a little surprised to see Xander at 28% ownership to lead this range and be 3rd overall for the week, even with me being on him I was underweight from the field (20%) which ended up not being a bad thing… Jon Rahm was my favourite play of the entire tournament as I felt the missed cuts in the past were not indicative of him as a player and at that price with the lower ownership (11.42% average) I felt he was a homerun play. Sergio (17.68% ownership) was another guy I liked in both formats. I was slightly above average ownership on Day (8% to 7%) and I felt he was a good GPP play if he was saying he felt good. Outside of that, I had a bit of Rickie/Dechambeau but was underweight on them. Overall, I was overweight on 1st, 2nd and 4th in the range and underweight on 3rd 5th and 6th although I was high on Xander at 6th I got lucky the rest of the field was a fan as well.

Francesco Molinari – DK: $8600 – 68.5 DK Points

I was on Molinari as he was hard to avoid, with 22.27% ownership I was slightly underweight at 20%, my love for Hideki and Fleetwood being an obvious made it hard to fit much of Francesco.

Hideki Matsuyama – DK: $8300 – 88.5 DK Points

If only Hideki could have put together four rounds of solid putting, with the ball striking we have seen out of Matsuyama I think it’s only a matter of time until he’s back in the top 5/10 of the world rankings.

Sii Woo Kim – DK: $7700 – 77 DK Points

The T56 finish doesn’t sound all that impressive, but Si Woo was able to rack up the birdies to finish inside the top 50 in fantasy scoring for the week. Kim outscored a few in his range that carried some ownership (Casey, Leishman) but was also outscored by some chalky guys like Woodland and Poulter and the risk was not necessarily worth the reward in this instance.

The misprices (Paul Casey, Gary Woodland, Rafa Cabrera-Bello)

All three mentioned above were mispriced and as a result, we saw all three carry over 20% ownership in GPP’s. The problem for those who played these players heavily was that none of them hit. Casey and RCB especially hindered teams as both missed the cut by quite a few strokes. While I was underweight on Casey compared to the field I was overweight on Woodland and RCB slightly and the two did not help my GPP/Cash Game teams in any way.

Overall, the week was a little below average for me GPP wise. While I had a few guys do well for me at a good price/ownership a few key parts of my team underperformed making for many 4/6 and 5/6 teams narrowly missing the cash line – this resulted in a losing week for me.

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Course Preview

 In this section I will point out a few things that I find interesting about the course. If you’re a member at the Army you also have Josh’s article for more extensive reasoning on what the key stats are and our Domination Station showing what stats have been the most important historically.

  • Just a few of the worlds best are sticking around in Florida as only DJ, and Jon Rahm remain as top 10 from the OWGR. Other notables include Jason Day, Sergio Garcia and Paul Casey
  • Im sure part of the reason the pricing looks tighter to me is that we are coming off of a week when pricing was extremely soft, but, with that said I think the pricing is a lot more realistic and not many guys stuck out as extreme/obvious misprices among first glance. I do think when we get pricing like this we generally see ownership spread out more which I personally prefer, Upnorth will have his breakdown later in the week writing up the chalk plays and pivots which should help further but I would expect we shouldn’t see many 30%+ guys in the $7-$8k range this week.
  • With the four par fives only giving up 21 eagles last season and five par threes I am gonna put a little less emphasis on play off of the tee and more on approach – small greens make it that much more important

 

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Interesting Plays

 In this section I will discuss plays that I like/dislike and guys that I find interesting for the week. Because this article comes out on a Monday this list can change, anyone I change my mind on will be discussed later in the week in our PGA coaching channel

The Big Three (Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Jason Day)

With a bit of a weaker field and all three of these of these guys being T12 last week I would expect all three to carry significant ownership. As usual, it’s hard to dislike anyone in the top tier of players – there’s usually a reason they’re in the top group. I think the course fits all of them, but I think Rahms my favourite at first look.

The Next Tier (Webb Simpson, Sergio Garcia, Gary Woodland, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed)

This group is interesting to me as we have a few guys who disappointed as the chalk and some guys who had tournaments showing a breakout is around the corner. Webb was great off of the tee on his way to a T16 finish. Sergio and Reed would have both been near the top of the leaderboard if they didn’t have one poor round – and Woodland/Casey, moreso Casey, let down a bunch of people as chalk that didn’t perform. I personally like all the guys for different reasons and think they could all make for good plays depending on how the rest of the week/ownership plays out, be sure to check my final notes but I likely see myself on multiple people in this range.

 

Jim Furyk – DK: $9200

 Furyk has been fantastic in 2019 making 4/4 cuts and a T9/2nd in his last two events. I find the price tough to get behind, but the more I think about it the more I think it’s fair. Furyk has played great and the course fits his style (he’s publicly stated he likes the course, was 7th last year). It will be interesting to see how the week plays out, but I could see Furyk be a guy that slips through the cracks because he’s -$500 ish more than what people expect.

Rafa Cabrera Bello – DK: $8800

 I am not ready to get off of RCB after one bad event as he has been playing great this year and the course does fit his style. Unless we see everyone else back on the RCB train I expect to be using him a little bit in GPP’s.

Russell Knox – DK: $8100

 Although he didn’t make his way onto my cash game team this week Knox has been on my shortlist week after week. Knox has made 8/8 cuts in 2019 and has only been outside of the top 50 once, with three top twenty appearances in that stretch. I also think he’s a sneaky course fit.

Sungjae Im – DK: $7700

It wasn’t for a lack of theatrics that Im missed the cut at the Players Championship. With a hole in one, an eagle and five bidies Im could have been right there with Rory after 36 holes. Unfortunately for Im, he could not avoid the big numbers and mistakes and piled up the bogeys/double bogeys to miss on the cut line. A few less three putts and two water balles being inches to the right/left and Im has a different weekend and likely a different price coming into this event.

Cash Game Review

I will end each article going over my cash game line-up for the week, breaking down my plays and reflecting for the following week

The Team (5.5-3.5) – L

The Team

Tommy Fleetwood – T5

Jon Rahm – T12

Sergio Garcia – T22

Paul Casey – MC

Rafa Cabrera Bello – MC

Lucas Glover – MC

Outside of Rahm (which I figured would be the case (4.9% owned)) and Glover somewhat (17.7% owned) the rest of my team was heavily owned in cash games with all 4 guys being anywhere from just under 40% to 57% owned. I knew these guys would be chalk and I knew I was skipping on other chalky plays including Poulter, Hideki and Molinari. Unfortunately for me, I picked the wrong lower end chalk as the missed cuts from Casey/RCB/Glover 18.5/19.5/22 DK points were too much to overcome with other chalky plays such as Matt Kuchar getting 73 DK Points and Ian Poulter getting 79 DK Points. Either player subbed in for Casey or RCB for example, would have put me right on the cash line for the week. I really do not have much self reflection for the week, as mentioned Rahm was my only out-of-the box play and I feel comfortable with it and still do. Hopefully next week the golf gods will treat me better.

Other DFS Army PGA Golf Tools and Articles

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