Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games sample size. NHL Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it. PPMU is another telling metric, but I save that one for VIPs. Just ask me in our coaching forums…
My plan is to describe the NHL games some and drop quality players in these lists. You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later). My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues. They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts. The core gets you to the dance. The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money. Your core is everything! Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.
Editor’s Note – This will be an abbreviated edition of The Breakaway where we are only mentioning skating lines and games to target. No need to mention places I’m not focusing. Large slates require drawing lines in sand and sticking with choices. We can’t cover all the bases. Plenty of viable options will not be mentioned today, but I wanted to at least share with you my primary targets. Any secondary targets, or specific plays will be mentioned/discussed among our coaches in our NHL-specific coaching forums.
FLA @ TOR – Two bigger MU Scores of 73 and 62. When I see both scores over 60, I tend to see a potential shootout. I’m off both goalies completely. If targeting this game, I’d look for top producers for FLA and love stacking the cross line skaters of their PP1 unit like Barkov/Dadanov/Hoffman or including a Yandle type. For TOR, I would definitely focus on their PP1. If it’s all on the top line, so be it. If it crosses lines, also fine. The PP1 has a really strong matchup tonight being FLA has the league’s 3rd worst kill right now….take advantage.
BUF @ NJD – I’m not focusing on this game much. Buffalo and New Jersey are both scoring less than 2 goals per game right now…..not something we want to gamble on for DFS NHL purposes. Play smart and just fade this one off. If you wanted to get freaky, the Devils do face the worst defense on the slate. But, this is sort of a “chicken or egg” scenario with a bad offense facing a bad defense. Who knows which matters more…….not me. Larger slates have better matchups.
PIT @ NYR – I think people fall into this one with PIT on the road facing a rather poor Rangers team. However, PIT only gives off a low-50s MU Score, which tempers my expectations. They are always in gpp-consideration, but I can fade them off in cash games barring some one-off value that is running really hot recently. NYR is a complete fade for me. I will, however, place heavy consideration on the PIT goalie. The -200 from Vegas sportsbooks is pretty strong. When combined with a MU Score for NYR of only 39, it becomes very strong…..and all format viable.
BOS @ TBL – Another potential shootout on paper, but also requiring a little thought. I hope it’s another trap for the masses. MU Scores of 67 and 71, respectively, these are actually two defensive-minded teams that like to play hockey at both ends of the ice. I don’t expect much to get out of hand from either team here. There will be some scoring being the offenses are just too good, but I don’t think this game explodes and makes a game stack the winning gpp combo. Both sides are expensive, too. I can fade this one in gpps, but in cash formats, I’ll likely want at least some exposure where I can find value.
VGK @ STL – Here we go with a good offense currently facing a strong defense. Which gives way to which? It’s hard to say, but I don’t tend to tackle offenses in spots like these on larger slates. On smaller slates, I often have to gamble more. VGK would be a gpp-type offense for you to target tonight, but not safe for cash….even with how they’ve produced of late. STL, on the other hand, draws a great power play matchup, but an otherwise weak offensive MU Score of only 55. I’ll mix the STL PP1 into a few lineups for sure being they are the more reliable scorers on the team and Vegas isn’t elite on the penalty kill.
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NSH @ MIN – I won’t be targeting skaters in this putrid game of dump it in a corner and play tiddly-winks until our shift is over. However, I will play both goalies. When I see two teams that don’t look to provide foreseeable danger offensively combined with a nearly 5050 moneyline from Vegas, I will ping-pong the goalies to guarantee a win somewhere. While this isn’t a solo-lineup play at all, it’s a fine technique when running out several to dozens of lineups. With the lower scoring projected, it’s unlikely the scoring gets out of hand in either direction, and actually makes the ping-pong goalie play even stronger.
DAL @ WPG – Another game I don’t like much tonight. Neither team is scoring, and while WPG plays better at home, DAL has a sick-hot goalie and defense only allowing 1.5 goals per game against over their last ten. If we went back 2 months, we’d likely see an average still under 2.0 goals against per game. DAL just doesn’t give up a lot of fantasy production, so I can bounce on a larger slate for greener pastures.
LAK @ CGY – LA has no interest from me. Calgary, on the other hand, carries quite a bit. The 67 MU Score is one of the best on the slate, and we know what these guys can do when rolling hot. I will be looking for consistency on the top line of CGY, but I won’t be afraid to gamble with them blindly, either. I want to catch a big game, and the Flames provided several the past couple of weeks. They won’t be as sneaky this time around, but they can still break a slate for you and get you into the bigger money of your gpps. For cash games, I’d focus completely on consistency and also minimize my exposure to such a potential boom or bust team. I should mention I like the goalie for CGY quite a lot, too. All formats viable given the lack of LAK firepower and the Vegas support offering over -300 odds on the win.
DET @ SJS – I can’t say I’m a huge fan in either direction here. But, if I was starved for an offense, I’d be focused on the San Jose side for sure. Scoring is down, but DET isn’t good. The MU Score of 66 is one of the better on the slate, but not completely indicative of a fantasy bonanza. I should be more excited by this team right now, but I’m just not. I’ll mix them in a few if making 10-20+ lineups, but I might not take more than a one-off in a cash lineup. I think we have better goalies, too, despite the heavy -390 odds in the Sharks’ favor.
Here is a skater-stats view of our NHL Research Station page. My videos typically walk you through the slate and point out how I quickly decipher the best games on the slate. However, as a VIP, you unlock access to this page, and you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view. 99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page. Your research has never been easier!!
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Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. It’s not for the feint of heart, and it has a high likelihood of failure. But, I saw this on the matchup sheet and will be playing it sporadically myself tonight…
GPP Sleeper stack = DET PP1 – Hammer stack taking advantage of an offense no one likes. This stack takes advantage of the worst penalty kill in the league over the last ten games and a team more focused on offense than defense (SJS). Get a goal or two from these guys, at these prices, and you are set up fairly well to connect on another bigger, chalkier stack and still get deep into your gpps.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.