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NHL Breakaway – Fanduel and Draftkings DFS Strategy Advice – Mar 21

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports.  If you are looking for it, we cover it!  Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.

NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games

Last 10 games sample size. NHL Home teams in white, away in gray.  GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against.  MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper.  Green is good, red is bad.  We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals.  Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.  PPMU is another telling metric, but I save that one for VIPs.  Just ask me in our coaching forums…

My plan is to describe the NHL games some and drop quality players in these lists.  You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later).  My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues.  They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts.  The core gets you to the dance.  The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money.  Your core is everything!  Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.

Editor’s Note – This will be an abbreviated edition of The Breakaway where we are only mentioning skating lines and games to target.  No need to mention places I’m not focusing.  Large slates require drawing lines in sand and sticking with choices.  We can’t cover all the bases.  Plenty of viable options will not be mentioned today, but I wanted to at least share with you my primary targets.  Any secondary targets, or specific plays will be mentioned/discussed among our coaches in our NHL-specific coaching forums.

ARI @ FLA – Not a game I am specifically targeting, but I will incorporate shots at the power play units on both sides.  Both teams have weak penalty kills, and both teams have solid power plays recently.  The combination of strong against weak cannot be completely ignored.

BOS @ NJD – Jersey can be largely ignored.  The Boston goalie, however, is a solid play….but should be expensive.  NJ is not a strong scoring threat and Vegas loves the Bruins chance to win.  BOS2 and the PP1 are both strong plays here, also.

TBL @ CAR – There is a 67 MU Score on TB tonight, and I’ll be looking to the TBL2 line with Stamkos.  Hedman is also a strong correlation, as he overlaps with the TBL1 and PP1 should they do the scoring.  Carolina is not in a strong matchup, and I won’t even be taking contrarian shots on them personally.  The Lightning defense is solid enough to keep the MU Score for CAR under 60.

NYI @ MTL – This game comes with a 5.0 over/under out of Vegas and contains two defensive teams that don’t score a lot, either.  No reason to focus on this game.

DET @ STL – The return of Vladimir Tarasenko last time out meant a lot more to the team than his DFS scoring.  With the top 2 lines fully in tact now with David Perron being back as well, the power play should continue it’s recent form and the overall team should be harder to defend.  Even with losing games to ARI and OTT last week, they scoring chances were there, the Blues simply lacked finishing talent.  They should have more in that department now, and I expect the hotter hitters to keep performing.  I will be focused on a gpp stack of Perron, Schwartz, and Maroon.  Yes, Maroon.  Patty is cheap and has been producing nicely for the correlation he also provides this stack.  A MU Score of 67 with a -330 brings the offense into my view, but the DET MU Score of only 47 makes me love the STL goalie, too.

What a weekend for NBA!!  Our coaches have done a lot of explaining, and our members have done a lot of winning.  The edge clearly resides in coaching.  Content and tools are nice, but how can you exploit your opponents when you don’t have the experts teaching you how to apply the content and tools?  That’s where DFS Army steps in.  Become a VIP and see what all the fuss is about…..#RaiseYourEdge!!

PIT @ NSH – Horrible MU Scores render this game useless to me.  Yes, I see it’s Pittsburgh and all their talent.  But, I also know Nashville plays very solid defense at home, too.  Just better to avoid the whole situation.

PHI @ CHI – We have a potential shootout here!  Both teams score, both teams play soft defense.  They’ve had their runs at goal-suppression (CHI is currently on one somewhat), but both teams score in the 60s for MU Score….usually a green light for a gpp game stack for me.  I’ll be focusing on PHI2, specifically JVR, Coutrier, and Giroux for some power play correlation, too.  For CHI, I’ll be looking to the hotter CHI2 line, as well.  I like Perlini, DeBrincat, Strome and the overlap of Gustafsson where I can fit it.  There is honestly a lot to love in this game, though.  So, get creative.  Don’t limit yourself to only the skaters I mentioned.

COL @ DAL – The Dallas goalie is in play big time.  We have the lowest MU Score of 35 I’ve seen in a long time, and the Dallas defense is only allowing 1.3 goals against in it’s last 10 games.  That’s quite good, especially when you bring in a visiting Avalanche team scoring only 2.2 goals per game over the same stretch.  However, one place I might get funky is in the “if it’s too good to be true, it probably is” arena.  This looks like an absolute lock for the Dallas goalie to pick up a win.  So, I’ll have at least one goofy (light money on fire) stack of Colorado skaters just in case the opposite of obvious happens here and Colorado just lights Dallas up.  NHL is a funny sport….and the weird happens all too often.

OTT @ CGY – Another lopsided game for me.  I will nearly fully ignore Senators skaters.  The only consideration is Brady Tkachuk.  From the Calgary side, though, I have some really talented correlations.  Power play quarterback, Mark Giordano, is a perfect link between the top two scoring lines.  I don’t know at this point where I stand on Johnny Gaudreau, but I do know I love the pairing of Matthew Tkachuk and Michael Frolik with as hot as they’ve been together lately.

Here is a skater-stats view of our NHL Research Station page.  My videos typically walk you through the slate and point out how I quickly decipher the best games on the slate.  However, as a VIP, you unlock access to this page, and you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view.  99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page.  Your research has never been easier!!

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CBJ @ EDM – Two more MU Scores down in the 50s tell me to largely look past this game.  Can it still go off?  Sure.  Will it hurt me?  Not really.  The ownership won’t be here outside maybe some of the bigger names like McDavid, Draisaitl, Atkinson, or Panarin.  I can fade them all and still profit on this slate easily.

WPG @ VGK – Winnipeg can be sneaky, but Vegas is playing some tough defense at the moment.  Given the road splits of the Jets, I can largely fade them outside of a little gpp consideration of their top power play and all it’s talent.  I’ll have more exposure, however, to the Golden Knights trying to keep the train rolling with their recent outburst of DFS scoring.  Straight top line considerations of Marchessault, Karlsson, and Smith are my focus.  I’ll likely take them and their MU Score of 69 and mix and match them with the other teams I’m pointing out today.

SJS @ LAK – I shouldn’t pay a lot of attention to the Kings side of this one, but they have a very oddly strong power play matchup tonight.  In fact, it’s one of the strongest I’ve seen in weeks.  So, I’d be remiss to fade them completely.  I don’t have a lot of faith in this call, but I’ll still have some of their PP1 just in case the numbers are right here and it’s a smash spot.  I don’t see a lot of ownership coming in on Kings, so this could be a winning stack should it score a couple times and give us the assists, too.  San Jose is where people will focus in this game.  The 69 MU Score is attractive, but there aren’t a lot of skaters rolling in this offense suddenly.  So, I can honestly cut my exposure here and simply keep my focus on previously mentioned good spots.  The SJS goalie, however, does deserve some logical consideration in the lineups where I’m not using Kings power play stacks.

Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…

What is NHL without stacking?!

Already mentioned in text above…

GPP Sleeper stack = 

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions.  I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too.  All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.

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I hope to see you inside soon.  Have a blessed day.