NHL Breakaway – Fanduel and Draftkings DFS Strategy Advice – Mar 14

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports.  If you are looking for it, we cover it!  Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.

NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games

Last 10 games sample size. NHL Home teams in white, away in gray.  GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against.  MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper.  Green is good, red is bad.  We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals.  Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.  PPMU is another telling metric, but I save that one for VIPs.  Just ask me in our coaching forums…

My plan is to describe the NHL games some and drop quality players in these lists.  You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later).  My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues.  They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts.  The core gets you to the dance.  The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money.  Your core is everything!  Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres

Odds:  PIN -190, 6.5 o/u

Tonight’s 10-game slate starts off with a semi-lopsided affair on paper.  Pittsburgh rolls into Buffalo with a modest MU Score of 65.  The only question with Penguins, typically, is how many can you afford to roster.  Generally, you have to choose between Sidney Crosby and Egveni Malkin, but if you can find a way to roster both, you have a pretty unique lineup capable of big damage.  Goalie – Murray is definitely in play, but I’m going to look for cheaper, if possible.

5 star plays – Crosby (C), Malkin (C)
4 star plays 
– Guentzel (W), Kessel (W)
Cash viable
– McCann (C)
GPP Sleeper – Running Sidney/Malkin together

Buffalo gets Jack Eichel back, but it might be too little, too late for the franchise.  Not many of the others are performing right now, and I’m just not personally feeling it here tonight.  PIT has tightened up a little defensively giving only 2.6 goals against over their L10.  I’ll find better spots.  Goalie – no.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Eichel (C)
Cash viable
– none
GPP Sleeper – none

Montreal Canadiens @ New York Islanders

Odds:  NYI -145, 5.5 leaning hard under

When a game starts at a 5.5 and trends hard to the under, publicly, I don’t have a lot of interest for DFS purposes.  Montreal’s MU Score is pretty weak, too, at 58.  I will list some plays for you, but keep them to one-offs and gpps.  I have no interest in big exposure to a likely dud game on a big slate.  Goalie – Viable only because no scoring is projected, but I still think I can do better elsewhere.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Domi (C), Gallagher (W), Tatar (W), Weber (D)
Cash viable
– Gallagher
GPP Sleeper – Weber has big upside

Same as above.  New York’s MU Score is 59, and we just have better areas on which to focus tonight.  With a minimum of 6 other offenses in far better spots, you just don’t need to get too cute.  Goalie – Same story as above, but I think I’ll try and find a little better…..but Greiss is playable if cheap on your site.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Clutterbuck (C), Pelech (D), Pulock (D)
Cash viable
– Clutterbuck (and he’s cheap), Pelech (also cheap)
GPP Sleeper – Pulock (testing ceiling lately)

Washington Capitals @ Philadelphia Flyers

Odds:  WAS -135, 6.5 leaning hard over

Washington brings bigger guns to the table tonight than our previous game, and I’d rather focus on a 68 MU Score (2nd highest on slate) vs something in the 50s any day.  Ovechkin has been “off” lately, but this is still a good spot to think about Capitals.  Goalie – Not in a game with a solid total and leaning hard on the over…..no way.

5 star plays – Ovechkin (W), 
4 star plays 
– Backstrom (C), Carlson (D), Oshie (W), Eller (C)
Cash viable
– Backstrom
GPP Sleeper – WAS2 or a Carlson/Ovechkin is fine being ownerships will be spread around the 10 games.

Philadelphia is going to be far more sneaky than Washington tonight, and they always seem a little under-owned.  Voracek sits for one more game, but the leadership in Coutrier and Giroux have still played well.  Sanheim also remains cheaper and mostly steady for cash games.  You can find a lot in this game.  With a MU Score of 62, this game very well might shoot out.  Goalie – When I say the game might shoot out, you need to just forget there’s a goalie involved.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Coutrier (C), Lindblom (W), Konecny (W), Giroux (W), Sanheim (D),
Cash viable
– Coutrier, Sanheim, Laughton (C) <– cheap and gpp viable as a punt.
GPP Sleeper – PHI1 with Sanheim……or Laughton

St. Louis Blues @ Ottawa Senators

Odds:  STL -260, 6 o/u

St. Louis carries a huge moneyline into this one vs Ottawa, so we should be looking at the goalie, obviously.  The offense is hurting, though, without stud winger Vladimir Tarasenko.  Schenn and O’Rielly have maintained somewhat, but can’t often test their ceilings.  Tonight, however, might be a night to being OTT allows 3.7 goals against in their L10.  Goalie – Sites are conflicted on starters right now, but I’d anticipate Allen getting the nod.  His road splits are strong and STL seems to be playing the “home Binni, road Allen” game.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Schenn (W), Pietroangelo (D)
Cash viable
– none
GPP Sleeper – STL PP1 has been climbing the PPMUs lately  (for explanation on PPMU, you just need to be a DFSA member)

Ottawa is just not someone I plan to follow or focus on much, especially on large slates.  A bottom feeder in the league, we just don’t do well in DFS NHL when we focus attention here.  Let’s not waste your time.  The only one worth mentioning right now is Brady Tkachuk.  Goalie – Rather contrarian, but viable play, if you feel the scoring woes of the Blues continue.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Tkachuk (W)
Cash viable
– Tkachuk
GPP Sleeper – Craig Anderson (G) – cheap and a long shot, but not illogical

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Detroit Red Wings

Odds:  TBL -390, 6.5

Tampa storms into Motor City with the best offense in the league on the season.  They also draw the highest MU Score on the slate at 73 tonight.  However, their goals for lately have fallen to a mediocre 3.2.  In cash games, you might want a piece if you can afford it.  However, in tourneys, I can find the fade here.  They are in a great spot, but sometimes zigging when the DFS NHL player pool zags is what wins all da moneez.  You know who to focus on by now.  Goalie – Vasilevskiy is likely your best shot at a win tonight, but of course, it will cost you a pretty penny.

5 star plays – Kucherov (W)
4 star plays 
– Stamkos (C), Point (C), Hedman (D)
Cash viable
– Hedman, even at his price
GPP Sleeper – no one is sneaky here

When a team like Detroit scores only 2.0 goals in their last ten games, I don’t need to pay any attention to them.  I’m not being lazy.  I’m playing the odds and saving you time.  If you want to dig for some diamond in the rough, be my guess.  My guess, though, is you are only going to find polished turds.  Goalie – hard pass.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash viable
– none
GPP Sleeper – none

What a weekend for NBA!!  Our coaches have done a lot of explaining, and our members have done a lot of winning.  The edge clearly resides in coaching.  Content and tools are nice, but how can you exploit your opponents when you don’t have the experts teaching you how to apply the content and tools?  That’s where DFS Army steps in.  Become a VIP and see what all the fuss is about…..#RaiseYourEdge!!

Dallas Stars @ Minnesota Wild

Odds:  MIN -120, 5 o/u

Dallas and Minnesota play in the same NHL division and are fighting for playoff positioning.  We have a taste of playoff hockey in this one tonight.  That often leads to DFS NHL disappointment due to a defensive struggle.  Add in these two have scored 2.6 goals each in their L10 games and I have very little to say about rostering any of these skaters.  Goalie – Viable due to lower scoring game…..it’s a 5.0 for Christ’s sake…..but you are going to need the win here, and Bishop is hot, but hella expensive.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash viable
– none
GPP Sleeper – Hintz (W)

Minnesota plans to stand toe to toe with Dallas tonight, and I believe they can do that being they are at home.  Ben Bishop has been white hot lately, and that issues a tall task for the Wild skaters.  I don’t like any of them being none are even averaging 12 Fanduel points per game over the last 4 weeks…ouch.  Goalie – Dubnyk can matchup with anyone on the right nights.  And, that’s just what I’d bank on tonight in gpps.  In cash, I don’t need him.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash viable
– none
GPP Sleeper – the game is a 5!  run away…

Boston Bruins @ Winnipeg Jets

Odds:  WPG -120, 6 o/u

Boston travels up to Winnipeg in a mediocre matchup.  Boston is a strong offense, but Winnipeg also plays tougher at home.  Our MU Score says 64, so that’s pretty good tonight.  I might find a few pieces being Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand are just rolling along.  I see a little sneaky value tonight, too.  Goalie – probably not with other better options.

5 star plays – Marchand (W)
4 star plays 
– Bergeron (C), Krejci (C), Wagner (W), McAvoy (D)
Cash viable
– Marchand, Bergeron, Wagner, McAvoy
GPP Sleeper – Krejci/McAvoy/Wagner won’t be owned, but I don’t know it has the upside to win you a gpp unless paired with a bigger stack that also goes off.

Winnipeg does play better at home, and they have a few skaters rolling right now.  Boston, however, plays very tough defense…allowing only 2.4 goals per game in their last ten.  That drops the MU Score for the Jets under 60 and brings me a little caution.  I’ll save them for gpps.  Goalie – no, just no.

5 star plays – Wheeler (W), 
4 star plays 
– Laine (W), Connor (W), Trouba (D)
Cash viable
– none
GPP Sleeper – Chiarot (D)

Anaheim Ducks @ Arizona Coyotes

Odds:  ARI -140, 5.5 leaning hard under

Booooooringgggg…..sorry, but we are back on this train with Anaheim, and Arizona, too, for that matter.  I just don’t have much to say, but I do have a cost saving option for you below.  Goalie – In bad NHL games like these, the goalies are hard to torch.  They are in play, but you need the win.  I do like Gibson, but likely save him for gpps.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Silvferberg (W)
Cash viable
– Silvferberg
GPP Sleeper – none

Arizona usually has value sitting all over their roster for one-offs.  Not tonight.  Neither team scores, and neither really gives up goals.  5.5 for a game total might be too high, and I’d be taking the under, as well.  Goalie – Darcy Kuemper bounced back his last game after being pulled the game before.  He’s a solid goalie, but won’t likely face a lot of shots.  He might have a decent floor for cash type games, but he needs a shutout at this price to win you a gpp.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash viable
– none
GPP Sleeper – none

Nashville Predators @ Los Angeles Kings

Odds:  NSH -190, 5.5 leaning hard under

Oh my God with these boring ass NHL games!  Please let us end the slate on a high note…..  Josi and Ellis have been consistently large pieces of any production Nashville offers, but that’s not saying much.  Watching this game is going to be just what I need to put me to sleep tonight.  Goalie – Not a fan, but I can see it in gpps.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Josi (D), Ellis (D)
Cash viable
– Josi, Ellis
GPP Sleeper – none

You should already know how I feel about trying to spot diamonds in low total games (5.5 leaning really hard on the under).  It’s just not +EV for DFS.  You don’t have to analyze every single game when you can spot the suckage from a mile away.  If it burns you, so what? No one else will be in here either.  Why?  Because they also have a couple active brain cells knocking around between their ears.  Don’t dumb yourself down in an attempt to be the smartest guy in the room.  Save that for the high school bully that still works at the movies and lives in his parents’ basement.  Goalie – Bad games can be good for goalies, but I won’t be on Mr. Quick here.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– none
Cash viable
– none
GPP Sleeper – none

Florida Panthers @ San Jose Sharks

Odds:  SJS -245, 6.5 leaning hard over

Phew….I had almost lost hope for our hammer game.  Florida might not have a huge MU Score, but they do have a low PPMU.  And, that has me excited.  The Panthers are also scoring 3.9 goals a game lately and this game is trending to the over in Vegas already.  I’m looking long and hard at these skaters, especially the PP1.  Goalie – not in high-scoring predictions.

5 star plays – Barkov (C), Huburdeau (W), Hoffman (W)
4 star plays 
– Dadanov (W), Weeger (D)
Cash viable
– Dadanov, Weeger
GPP Sleeper – FLA PP1

San Jose can score.  That’s a known fact.  While both these teams are giving less than 3 goals per game, I still see modest MU Scores making me want to focus energy on both sides, especially special teams.  The Meier/Hertl connection doesn’t correlate, but it has been so yummy lately, I’m going back to the well in a few spots at minimum.  I’m including game stacks here, too. Brent Burns gets stupid ownership from people on his reputation, but he hasn’t been producing lately; therefore, he’s overpriced.  That said, I just jinxed him into an #OppoChoppo situation where you need to roster him just in case… Goalie – Again….no.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Meier (W), Pavelski (W), Couture (C), Burns (D), Hertl (C)
Cash viable
– Meier, Hertl
GPP Sleeper – SJ PP1

Here is a one game view of our NHL Research Station matchup page.  My daily videos typically walk you through this page and point out how I quickly decipher the best plays on the slate.  When you unlock access to this page, you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view.  But, you only get it as a VIP.  99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page.  Your research has never been easier!!

Hockey is incredibly similar to baseball.  Are you getting spring fever?  Fire up a quick refresher with The Top 5 Stats You’ll Only Find At DFS Army!

Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…

What is NHL without stacking?!

PIT2, PP1
WAS1
TBL PP1
BOS2, BOS1, PP1
FLA PP1
SJS PP1

GPP Sleeper stack = I don’t really have a funky one for you today because ownership should be really spread out through the slate and 6-7 offenses we are targeting.  No need to get cute.  Just pray you hit your picks hard and you’ll be fine.  Running Crosby/Malkin together or the BOS suggestion are about as crazy as I’m getting.

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions.  I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too.  All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.

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I hope to see you inside soon.  Have a blessed day.