Daily Fantasy Sports
Sharp App
Season Long Fantasy
Free Month
Wall of Champions
Discord

NHL Breakaway – Fanduel and Draftkings DFS Strategy Advice – Mar 1

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports.  If you are looking for it, we cover it!  Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.

NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games

Last 10 games sample size. Home teams in white, away in gray.  GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against.  MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper.  Green is good, red is bad.  We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals.  Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.  PPMU is another telling metric, but I save that one for VIPs.  Just ask me in our coaching forums…

My plan is to describe the games some and drop quality players in these lists.  You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later).  My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues.  They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts.  The core gets you to the dance.  The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money.  Your core is everything!  Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres

Odds:  PIT -135, 6.5 leaning over

Pittsburgh carries the brand names, but he MU Score indicates we are making sense in looking deeper into them.  Crosby, Malkin and Letang usually lead the charge here, but we might have others to consider.  I typically like the 2nd lines on the road, and this time is no different.  My mantra can be “Malkin for the road, Crosby at home.”  I get exposure to both because they are on the same power play unit, so it’s really not that big a deal to fade one.  Goalie – Not a fan right now because of the matchup Buffalo gets….you’ll see in a minute.

5 star plays – Crosby (C), Letang (D)
4 star plays 
– Guentzel (W), Malkin (C), Rust (W)
Cash gamers 
– Malkin
GPP Sleeper – no sleepers here

Buffalo is a surprising hidden gem, potentially.  Low MU Score, but a neat little PPMU (VIPs know what this means and how much to consider it).  I will also add what you can’t even see in the above graphic is two other metrics showing some positive regression in this matchup that actually give the Sabres one of the best matchups on the slate.  I wish I could go into detail, but I’ve also locked that up for the VIPs.  Membership has its privileges!  Join us and unlock it!  Goalie – A bit sneaky, of course, but too dangerous for me in looking at the 67 MU Score in PIT and seeing that is 2nd highest on the slate.

5 star plays – Eichel (C), Skinner (W), 
4 star plays 
– Reinhart (W), Dahlin (D), Ristolainen (D)
Cash gamers 
– Reinhart, Dahlin
GPP Sleeper – BUF PP1 and even some one-offs like Rodrigues or Pominville for value

Philadelphia Flyers @ New Jersey Devils

Odds:  PHI -135, 6.5 leaning over

Philly is on the back to back we saw render TOR and TBL nearly useless last night.  However, we aren’t facing a tough defense like they were.  The Flyers have the highest MU Score on the slate with a 68, and while that’s not super high on most slates, it is the best we have tonight.  We need to look to that PHI2 again with Couturier, Lindblom, and Voracek to do the damage.  The power play units are mediocre tonight, but carry consideration like Giroux or Konecny for ceiling and upside.  Goalie – I’m a little worried about the recent goalie play out of Philadelphia, and I don’t like the game leaning to the over at an already high 6.5.

5 star plays – Voracek (W), Couturier (C), Giroux (W), 
4 star plays 
– Sanheim (D), Gostisbehere (D), Lindblom (W), Provorov (D), Konecny (W), Van Reimsdyk (W), Patrick (C)
Cash gamers 
– Couturier, Sanheim
GPP Sleeper – PHI2 but not too sneaky

New Jersey comes in with a solid MU number, but PHI has been leaky lately.  I don’t mind taking some shots here, but I’m not going overboard.  The Devils miss Taylor Hall and Keith Palmieri, but the value that opens up gives us some sneaky chances to capitalize tonight if PHI reverts to the leakiness they have shown at times this year.  Goalie – I don’t trust any Jersey goalie after the trade deadline…..they just have nothing left.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Hischeir (C), Greene (D)
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – you are really going on a limb, but the NJD PP1 is your best shot at upside

Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders

Odds:  NYI -110, 6 leaning over

Washington and Ovechkin are always on people’s radars.  I love picking and choosing my spots with them.  NYI plays really tough defense and isn’t giving up but 2.1 goals against over their L10 games.  However, I can see indicators that the Isles might be getting very lucky and can give WAS a chance to explode.  That said, WAS isn’t the one I’m gambling on being chalky.  I’d rather wait for another lesser-chalk team to matchup with NYI before taking that chance in tourneys for primo leverage.  You just don’t get leverage when gambling on chalk panning out.  Sort of not the right way to play chalk when you do (for the new guy, “chalk” is slang for “super popular plays.”)  Goalie – NYI is somewhat of a threat, too.  WAS gives a little and NYI just scored 6 last night…..I don’t need Holtby.

5 star plays – Ovechkin (W) on any slate even if 8 guys are playing defense. Kuznetsov (C), Carlson (D)
4 star plays 
– Oshie (W), Wilson (W), Connolly (W), Vrana (W), Backstrom (C)
Cash gamers 
– not feeling any of these guys are legit safe enough for cash in this matchup
GPP Sleeper – not sneaky either

New York Islanders come off last night’s 6 goal explosion where they caught a team coming off its own back to back night.  Was it the travel?  Was it just New York catching a helluva night?  You get to make that call because last night’s matchup wasn’t good, but tonight’s is actually really strong.  A 65 MU Score is strong for the slate and worthy of consideration, and the PPMU is also decent.  Add in other metrics like Scoring Chances and High Danger Shots, and you might have a sneaky good matchup not known for its offensive prowess.  Goalie – I don’t mind it for tourneys, but I’m not going here.

5 star plays – Pulock (D)
4 star plays 
– Nelson (C), Czikas (W), Bailey (W), Eberle (W), Barzal (C), Lee (W), Toews (D)
Cash gamers 
– Bailey, Toews…I’ll add Czikas being cheap, but don’t use both Toews and Czikas in the same lineup.  Choose one.
GPP Sleeper – NYI1 with Lee/Eberle/Nelson

Montreal Canadiens @ New York Rangers

Odds:  MTL -115, 5.5 leaning over

Smash spot in peripheral indicators, Montreal can back up their 8 goal performance with another on paper.  Will they?  I’m not sure.  I won’t be shocked either way, but I’m going to roll the dice with them.  There is sick value on this team for the matchup, and I love gambling with a cheap stack in a smash spot.  Goalie – While I don’t think this game hurts the goalie too much, I don’t know that it carries gpp-winning upside, either.  I’m fine with him in all but large gpp formats.

5 star plays – Domi (C), Gallagher (W), 
4 star plays 
– Drouin (W), Weber (D), Tatar (W)
Cash gamers 
– Benn (D), Tatar, Domi
GPP Sleeper – MTL2 is a favorite of mine lately…keep ridin’ that train!

The Rangers are in a good spot tonight.  That’s not the debate.  The debate is whether or not a team that defines “meh” right now can do shit with it.  I won’t be doing any stacking out of this one.  One-offs only for me, and it starts with Zibanejad at center where I roster him.  Deangelo on defense is also fairly sound value on defense when needing to save a buck and differentiate some.  Goalie – nope…..not for me anyway.

5 star plays – Zibanejad (C)
4 star plays 
– Kreider (W), Vesey (W), Deangelo (D), Namestikov (W), Buchnevich (W)
Cash gamers 
– Strome (W), Shattenkirk (D), Namestikov, Deangelo, Vesey
GPP Sleeper – I suppose with all these names producing modestly, but very well for the price, I can change my mind on stacks here…

NBA All-Star Break has been a great success for many of our newer players!  Our coaches have done a lot of explaining, and our members have done a lot of winning.  The edge clearly resides in coaching.  Content and tools are nice, but how can you exploit your opponents when you don’t have the experts teaching you how to apply the content and tools?  That’s where DFS Army steps in.  Become a VIP and see what all the fuss is about…..#FearTheHelmet!!

St. Louis Blues @ Carolina Hurricanes

Odds:  CAR -120, 5.5 leaning under

St. Louis doesn’t get in the habit of handing out goals in 2019.  2018 and the abysmal start to the season seem like 5 years ago the way the Blues are currently playing.  The game tonight is leaning very hard on the under, and I can see why when looking at the MU Score graphic above.  I won’t be in this game, but I’ll be watching it on tv.  Goalie – I will be taking sides with both goalies tonight.  Both sides have a low chance of tanking your lineup and it’s only about catching the win.  Cash lineups can easily hedge by making another lineup and just switching the goalies if the salaries allow…..that way you get the win in one and a higher floor in the other.

5 star plays – I could list names, but that wouldn’t tell you how I feel.
4 star plays 
– Tarasenko (W), O’Reilly (C), Pietroangelo (D), Parayko (D)
Cash gamers 
– none from me
GPP Sleeper – so sneaky it’s borderline dumb

Just flip flop the write up from above right down to the goalie.

5 star plays – same as above
4 star plays 
– Williams (W), Teravainen (W), Aho (C), Neiderreiter (W)
Cash gamers 
– nope
GPP Sleeper – borderline dumb again….don’t stack games leaning on the under when already a low 5.5

Nashville Predators @ Winnipeg Jets

Odds:  WPG -115 and trending down towards pick’em, 6 leaning under

Nashville finds themselves with a just “ok” matchup in terms of MU Score, but look at what WPG gives up….slate-high 3.9 goals against lately.  Target that trash!!  Who will score?  We have to do some guessing.  The DFSA Research Station allows you to sort by “% of team scoring” and I’d start there….if you’re a vip.  If not, you get to rely on me, and I use different methods.  (But, I’ll be running to look at the team scoring because I trust it more than pure game log hunting.)  Goalie – Winnipeg is explosive, but right now they are like a man after a vasectomy….firing blanks.  Still a risky chance to take, but I can get on board in tourneys.

5 star plays – Josi (D), Forsberg (C)
4 star plays 
– Arvidsson (W), Granlund (W), Subban (D), Ellis (D)
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – big balls gpp – Turris/Jarnkrok/Arvidsson/Subban NSH2 with a Subban howitzer

Winnipeg plays better at home, but their numbers look like they’ve been on the road for all of February.  It’s that bad for the Jets right now, and the Preds are a good defense with eyes on winning the division.  The Jets just aren’t generating chances even though they have some hot skaters, individually, and some explosive potential looking to reignite soon.  Goalie – Not from me, no way.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays 
– Wheeler (W), Laine (W), Trouba (D), 
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – Laine or Wheeler

Vegas Golden Knights @ Anaheim Ducks

Odds:  VGK -150, 5.5 leaning under

Vegas also gets the back to back tonight traveling to Anaheim.  Not a super long trip, and they were in the gpp winning lineups that I saw last night.  However…….can they do it against the hapless Ducks? The matchup was better last night and I’m not really chasing the points.  Goalie – Of course, he’s in play.  The Ducks are scoring only 1.7 goals per game over their last 10.  Some random eruption is a very low frequency event tonight.

5 star plays – Stone (W)
4 star plays 
– Schmidt (D), Theodore (D), Smith (W), Marchessault (W), Statsny (C), Pacioretty (W)
Cash gamers 
– Miller (D), Merrill (D), Smith, Schmidt
GPP Sleeper – I won’t fault you if you do, but I won’t be using more than one-offs.

No…….this might look lazy, but it’s really just a time-saver for you.  You’ll thank me more times than not.

5 star plays – hells
4 star plays 
– to
Cash gamers 
– the
GPP Sleeper – nah

Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks

Odds:  SJS -200, 6.5 leaning hard on the over

Colorado is interesting.  Their offensive numbers are creeping up, and their defensive numbers are creeping down.  They might be turning the corner of putrid that was a few weeks ago.  Yikes, that was awful.  I’m still waiting on the reunion of MacKinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog on the top line, but I’ll just piece meal things together until that glorious day returns.  Goalie – SJ can score, this would carry more risk than I’d recommend taking.

5 star plays – MacKinnon (C), Landeskog (W), 
4 star plays 
– Soderberg (C), Rantanen (W), Barrie (D)
Cash gamers 
– Soderberg
GPP Sleeper – They are still too discombobulated for me to want to organize an official stack.

The Avs have really shut things down defensively lately, and that puts our Sharks in one weird spot.  While the Avs felt worse than they were at 4.0 goals against, they have swung the pendulum the other way with a 2.0 now over their last 10 games.  The answer lies somewhere in the middle, which places San Jose in the gpp category for me tonight.  Goalie – probably not with COL possibly returning to form.

5 star plays – Burns (D), Pavelski (W), Kane (W)
4 star plays 
– Hertl (C), Couture (C), Labanc (W), Meier (W)
Cash gamers 
– none
GPP Sleeper – perhaps, but I’m not fond of the spot, myself.

Here is a one game view of our NHL Research Station matchup page.  My daily videos typically walk you through this page and point out how I quickly decipher the best plays on the slate.  When you unlock access to this page, you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view.  But, you only get it as a VIP.  99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page.  Your research has never been easier!!

Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…

What is NHL without stacking?!

PIT2 – Malkin and a mix
BUF1 – Eichel/Skinner/Reinhart/Dahlin/Ristolainen, pick 3
PHI2 – ride it till it bucks you
MTL2 – Domi/Shaw/Tatar

GPP Sleeper stack =  NSH2 with Subban –  We really don’t have much to go on outside of pure guts here, but if you want to dodge chalk tonight with a great paper matchup and multi-goal upside, here is your sneaky stack.  No one plays Turris or Jarnkrok regularly, and I’m not recommending it, either.  But, for one night……………..come on, baby, ONE TIME!!  For chalk stacks, sneaky stacks, and others, you will have to ask inside our coaching forums this afternoon…

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions.  I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too.  All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.

–> Get the Key Today!  Start Winning With Us! <–

I hope to see you inside soon.  Have a blessed day.