Good morning Army! Welcome to this week’s edition of Calming the Chaos. We get our first short track race of the year, and I couldn’t be more excited (especially after last week’s “thriller” of a race). These races can be pretty chaotic, so there will be lots of areas we can sneak in some strong pivots. Let’s get right to it!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Martinsville Speedway
We’re back to the regular 750 horsepower cars this week, but since it is Martinsville, it won’t be about raw power. Rather, drivers need equal parts skill and equipment to do well here…and a bit of luck to boot, too! Because of this, every category is squarely in play, so there’s no need to auto-fade the super-punts, for example.
There’s not much for narratives going on this week, with the exception of Martin Truex Jr still chasing both his first short track and 2019 season win. He doesn’t need any extra motivation to win, but we know it’s on his mind, so that could push him just a little bit more.
Lineup construction/correlation
We only had 200 laps last week, but this week we’re on the opposite end of the spectrum; this 500-lap behemoth completely changes the way we should approach lineup construction. Not to worry, that’s what I’m here for!
Both stars & scrubs and value/stud heavy lineup constructions are in play this week, and you could even fall back to some balanced ones as well. Really, almost any approach can work here, but I would lean towards the first two since there are so many big hitters up top this week (and because there are so many laps).
Dominators
With 500 laps to run, dominators will be extremely important this week, especially on DraftKings. You can expect to see some big scores, probably pushing 450+ DKFP in the big tournaments. A lot of that will come from all the dominator points, so it will be very important to nail them this week.
With that in mind, I would go by what the race calculator recommends; two to three dominators on DraftKings and one to two dominators on FanDuel.
I would stick to no more than one or two pure dominators in a lineup at a time and focus more on having the dom/stud hybrids soak up most of the dominator role in your lineups. For example, stacking Harvick + Hamlin + Almirola isn’t going to pay off, but having Busch + Logano + Blaney can work just fine.
This is also a race where a single dominator approach can win, so don’t be afraid to take a few shots with them! I would look at either Logano or Kyle Busch as the solo dominator if you go that route.
Studs
There’s only one this week, so there won’t be much to say here. Johnson is a decent play and is worth sprinkling around, mostly because he knows this track so well and could sneak a late-race surge and finish in the top-10 or better.
Value studs
This section is full of a bunch of good plays, both strong cash plays and GPP pivots alike. Be sure to have a lot of exposure to this area!
Byron is the big chalk here this week since he’s starting 34th. However, the entire value stud category is firmly in play, so be sure to get exposure to all of them. Don’t put all of your money on just Byron this week; spread out!
Jones, Austin, Hemric, and Newman are the strongest, but Suarez, Bowman, Stenhouse, and Menard are all perfectly fine to have too. I’m not as big on Buescher, but he could be sprinkled around a little bit. I’d rather save him for the next 1.5-mile track. I would look to take two value studs wherever possible.
Value
This area got bumped down a little bit with the Byron news, but there are still some good choices here. I would probably only take one value driver at a time, and rely more on the value studs. That said, Ty and Ragan are fine choices in all formats, Preece is a great GPP pivot, and the rest are decent plays to sprinkle around. Just be sure to have Byron first in cash before picking from here.
Punts
The punts are firmly in play this week, and I would look at Ware for all formats (yes he has a backup car, but he’s the one he used at Auto Club…no problem there). Tifft and Landon make solid GPP plays, and the rest are just kind of worth sprinkling around. I don’t like LaJoie here, as I think he’ll be in the garage sooner than later.
Stacks
There aren’t as many stacks I like this week, but I’ll go over the ones I do like;
Cash stack – Kyle Busch, Logano, and Byron make a great start to a cash lineup this week (or either one of the first two along with Byron).
Penske – Always in play, a stack with Logan + Blaney looks very strong, as well as one with them plus Keselowski. There are enough lead laps to feed all three of them. This would be a great way to pivot off of Kyle Busch.
Pivots
There are a TON of great pivots this week, so be sure to get exposure to them. I would concentrate efforts on the dominators and value studs mostly this week, as those are the best pivots available. Remember, it’s very likely that we see a good amount of chalk in the winning lineup. It’s those one or two pivots that make the difference! In other words, don’t make lineups with 5-6 pivots, as it’s very unlikely to pay off.
Closing thoughts
Sorry this one is so late guys! Saturday qualifying really sucks with my work schedule, but I tried my best. Next week will be better, promise. Good luck today, and see you all in Slack!