Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a decent sized 8 game slate, and I see a few landmines that stood out to me in the RS today. Now let’s dig into tonight!
Value Traps
Marco Bellineli ($3,300) – He really hasn’t been playing well at all lately, and barring anyone of the Spurs starters being out, he doesn’t have the upside we’re looking for tonight. He’s seeing over 20 minutes a game but he’s another guy who is very scoring dependent in order for his fantasy point production. He hasn’t topped 15 FPs in 4 of his last 5 and there are a ton of better options for value on tonight’s slate.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,100) – Bjelica has really stepped up his play and is seeing over 20 minutes a game now which has directly cut Bogdan’s minutes. He’s simply not getting the minutes he needs to pay off his salary. Let’s take a look at his numbers:
He’s at the bottom of the list of Who’s Trending, and I’ll be avoiding him moving forward until we see his minutes go back up.
Lauri Markkanen ($8,000) – He’s just been absolutely ice cold over the last few games and his fantasy point production has fallen off a cliff:
He’s averaging 3.3x value over his last 3 and he’s only averaging 27 FPPG over his last 5 games. I’m staying away until he starts showing some signs of life. With Lopez playing big minutes at the 5, it really effects his rebounding ceiling, which was stellar when he was red hot. He was getting a ton of points when he was double doubling every night with 12-15 boards but that just hasn’t been happening lately. LaVine is also back tonight, which will take usage away from him as well.
Just Missed the Cut: Jeff Green ($4,300) – HE’S ONLY A TRAP IS ARIZA PLAYS!!! He’s been playing a bunch of minutes for this Wizards team, but Beal has been soaking up the majority of the usage, as shown by Green’s 17.4% usage rate. He’s only been averaging 4.1x value over his last three games along with averaging just above 17 FPPM over those same 3 games. He hasn’t really shown the ceiling that we’re looking for, Green has upside, but there are a few players I like tonight that are a lot less risky. If Ariza is out I think he is a fine value play, but if Ariza is in, he’s a trap.
Who’s Trending
Elfrid Payton ($6,500) – He’s the guy who’s trending the most in our model, let’s take a look:
He’s averaging 10.6 more FPPG over his last 3 and gets a good matchup against as we know Damian Lillard isn’t a great defender. He’s averaging over 45 FPPG and I expect his hot streak to continue tonight.
Nejamja Bjelica ($4,600) – You probably saw this one coming with my blurb on Bogdanovic. He’s been playing solid minutes and he’s challenging Elf for the top spot in the RS. Take a look:
He averages close to 1/FPPM and if he gets 30ish minutes again tonight, he should continue to crush value. He’s still way underpriced on DraftKings.
Damian Lillard ($9,000) – Dame’s been on fire the past few games. He’s averaging over 8 FPPG more over his last 3 games and he gets a cake matchup against Elf and the Pelicans in what should be a high scoring game.
Count me in on Dame. His 29.4% usage rate also gives us a nice floor with some nice upside at right at 9K.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,600) – He’s been crushinggggggggg over the past few games and now he gets the Knicks and their 27th ranked aDvP against PFs. He should be able to do whatever he wants downlow tonight and he’s averaging a 50 burger over his last 3. He’s one of my favorite big men tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: Jake Layman ($3,300) – Harkless is out tonight and Turner is likely on a minutes limit. He should see a ton of minutes tonight and has the upside we’re looking for.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
