Flynnie’s Forecheck for 3/29/19
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching, and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process, or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research Station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. When you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 20% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. In cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Take a peek at our latest winner. DFSA is on fire over NBA All Star Break and would love to help you learn the game of hockey, as well! Whether you are already a VIP or are just passing by, our coaches can teach the rookie and veteran alike. Congrats to Handleyrs for a near 300 score and over $850 in winnings!!
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 6-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men, and goalies in order of my preference.
NHL FORWARDS
DET 1 – Mantha, Larkin, Bertuzzi – Bertuzzi set the world on fire last night and playing him feels a bit like chasing. This slate is pretty terrible, hence one of the worst teams in the league being my #1 stack. But, NJ is worse at everything. DET 1 has scored 3 goals in the last three games and NJ 1 has given up 5 goals over their last 10. You can add Athanasiou and/or Kronwall if you want to make this a PP stack and spread your exposure across two lines.
VGK 1 – Marchessault, Karlsson, Smith: This will be very chalky. They have scored 11 goals in the last 10 and Karlsson and Smith are both playing very well at the moment. I think this line is worth a fade if only making a couple of lineups because MIN is actually playing well defensively. If making a bunch of teams, you absolutely need exposure here.
CGY 2 – Tkachuk, Backlund, Lindholm: CGY has really jumbled their lines over the last couple of games but the tandem of Backlund and Tkachuk is still together and playing as well as they have all season. I don’t really like Lindholm as a one-off, but you can finish stacks with him or use Giordano.
Other stacks
MIN 1 – Parise, Staal, Zucker – I want to capitalize on VGK 1 bleeding goals (Parise is a GTD so watch that news)
STL 1 – Tarasenko, O’Reilly, Schenn
STL 2 and STL 4 – just mix and match all the Blues you can
ANA 1 – Rakell, Shore, Silfverberg
PIT 1 – Guentzel, Crosby, Rust
Maybe prop bets are your thing, too? We are quickly expanding coverage into the different realms of sports betting!
DFS Studs on DEFENSE
Barrie: I like COL quite a bit tonight and Barrie is absolutely on a tear right now. He is averaging 24 FD points per game over his last 5 and the next closest D-man is Gio with 18.6. Gio is in play and I expect him to carry more ownership than Barrie because CGY has the highest ITT on the slate at 3.8 and COL is only projected for 3.1.
Spurgeon: I think MIN is super sneaky tonight if Subban gets the start for VGK. The matchup looks terrible, but Subban has a sub-0.900 % over the last three weeks and VGK 1 is bleeding goals. On a slate that has a lot of (let’s be nice and call it…) mediocrity, I think Spurgeon can go low owned be part of a great hammer stack. His partner Ryan Suter is also in play, I just lean Spurgeon.
Pietrangelo: He is averaging 12.4 FD points over his last 5 which is not great, but his matchup is. I expect STL to score a ton of goals tonight and when they are rolling, Pietro is a big part of the action.
Honorable Mentions: DeAngelo, Letang (if he plays), Shattenkirk, Kronwall, DeKeyser (solid floor, limited upside)
GOALIES Set to Bring Value
**All stats are over the last three weeks unless otherwise noted**
Murray: 6-2-2/2.19/0.935 This matchup seems worse than it really is. NSH is not doing anything well offensively and they are in the middle of the pack defensively. I think Murray is pretty safe for the win here and might go lower owned because of some other perceived better matchups. ALL FORMATS/ lean GPP
Binnington: 5-1-0/1.84/0.935 After a brief cold stretch, the rookie phenom is back in our lives. He has only lost 3 times in the last month and a half and gets a dream matchup against the Rangers who are near the bottom of the league in all offensive categories. They get Kreider back tonight, but that won’t help them enough. ALL FORMATS/CASH LOCK
Grubbauer: 6-1-1/1.36/0.959 I still don’t think the DFS world has caught up to how good this guy has been the last month or two. He’s been great (look at those last three numbers), and ARI has stopped scoring entirely. They are second to last in the league in goals for over the last 10 games. Colorado has not been giving up goals but they been allowing a good amount of shots, I believe this combo gives Grub the highest ceiling on the slate and he will likely be my #1 goalie tonight. GPP/HYBRID
Honorable Mentions: Bernier, Dubnyk, Smith
GOAL PREDICTION: Dylan Larkin
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after Morning Skate.
I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter or in our coaching forums. If not already a member, join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 20% off your membership for life.