Donuts to Dollars
The modus operandi of the majority of my Daily Fantasy NBA articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal DFS model and projections.
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This is my last 7-days and the dream streak continues over on FantasyDraft!
A Sunday night “for fun” small slate MME after I put the kids to bed!
A member “Scrosby” and I, both finished first and second in the FantasyDraft $25 contest last night. It was a fun night with several more DFSA members having their first $1 tournament wins and a few other MME nights go the right way (specifically in my channel in chat for fantasydraft).
A few extremely happy members with huge personal success trying out my NBA Model on FantasyDraft this weekend!
My Personal NBA Model
Daily Fantasy NBA has a gorgeous eight game on tap over on FantasyDraft, so let’s dig in and make some money together. The first guy exploding in my model is Andre Drummond. He is both a top-5 rated play and a top-5 value option. His minutes and game logs don’t look great over the last couple of games but that was because Detroit was blown out twice. A game against the weak and feeble Lakers should fix all things broken. The Pistons have a 115.0 point implied team total and Drummond is averaging 1.43 points per minute over the last month.
If he plays just 30 minutes, he would get close to hitting his salary marker on an average game at just $16,000. I expect him to play more than 30, have a better than average game, and absolutely explode. He’ll be in my “core” list tonight in the #DonutsToDollars NBA DFS Model on the site. Let’s hope he is as good as a few of the core plays from Thursday night (thanks, D.J. Augustin!) and wins members boat loads!
Bradley Beal does not find himself in my top-10 value options in my model, however, he is a top-10 rated play. Beal is still too cheap and his price tag value indicator is at 52.2 points. Meanwhile, Beal is averaging 1.39 fantasy points per minute and nearly 40 minutes per game over the last month. He has 555 fantasy points over his last 11 games, meaning his average during that span is 51.00 fantasy points. That’s his average! Beal gets a nice matchup and his team is implied to score 117.5 points.
The best part about using Beal in DFS is his floor. Only once has Beal scored less than 45.50 fantasy points in those 11-games. He is safety with a strong ceiling at an affordable price. Yes, please!
Ivica Zubac continues to perform in limited minutes. He gets a plus matchup against the Bulls tonight and is an affordable low-cost option, similar to D.J. Augustin over the last couple of weeks that has a built in floor and potentially slate winning ceiling due to the matchup.
Ivica has scored 32.75, 24.25, 29.25, 28.75, and 31.00 in the last 6 games with a 13.50 performance stuck in the middle of those scores. The previous four games were similar, with a bunch of 20’s and an 18.50 point clunker in there. He has 276 fantasy points over his last 226 minutes. He’s currently my number one rated value option on the slate (until news breaks later and the slate inevitably shifts).
Ish Smith could find himself as the starting point guard for the Pistons against the Lakers tonight. At just $7,900 and a weak 22 minute projection right now, his value and rating will rocket skyward if we get clarity on if Reggie Jackson will be available or not tonight. At that point, he’ll become incredibly chalky. I will break down how I plan on using him under that scenario in my game notes in the NBA model.
Tyler Johnson has been ruled out and it appears that De’Anthony Melton could find himself as the starter against the Rockets. This would have bee bad if Chris Paul had not been ruled out this morning, too. While we don’t know if Melton will start or not (they might slide Booker down to point and move Mikal Bridges into the starting five), he will be a supreme value on a chalky slate.
James Harden just became mega-chalk and for good reason. You don’t need me to push you to play him. However, people aren’t going to think of Eric Gordon ($9,700). We’ve seen Gordon perform extremely well whenever CP3 is out and he will have a solid floor and ceiling combination at a very affordable price. Just looking at the other players in his price range, Gordon feels like a strong MME value.
Emmanuel Mudiay rocketed up to a top-5 value option with a minutes projection of 28. I think this might be conservative as well. I have him at 0.90 points per minute for tonight against the Spurs, which would result in (rounding up) a 26 point performance. At just $8,200, he is another fantastic MME option and someone I would be sure to grab for Single Entry GPP’s as well.
The rest of my FantasyDraft NBA DFS content and player pool is going to be given away in my Donuts to Dollars NBA DFS Model. My preliminary Player Pool that will be posted on the site this afternoon. Join up ASAP so that you can take full advantage of this fantasy goodness!
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