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Donuts to Dollars NBA Daily Fantasy Picks and Advice

Donuts to Dollars

The modus operandi of the majority of my articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal model and projections.

I used my player pool that I put on our website (demonstration video of using optimizer and tutorial on how to use the Donuts to Dollars NBA Model) and pumped out my second solid night over on FantasyDraft in the last week. I give away my personal player pool 6 days per week and discuss the slate with our members in chat. Hope to see you join and kick some butt over there with me. Promo DONUTS gives you 20% off forever!

My Personal NBA Model

FantasyDraft

There are two guys absolutely exploding in my model right now and I’ll be extremely heavy handed on them on Monday. Bradley Beal is just $17,600 and is prime position to anchor your lineups at the Guard position. The Washington Wizards have a 121.5 point implied team total (ITT) and are 2.0 favorites over the visiting Sacramento Kings in a game with a 241.0 point total. This game is going to be fast-paced and high scoring. The Wizards have given up over 112 points in all but two games since February 2nd so I would imagine this is just going to be a shoot out as long as the Wizards legs don’t crumble underneath them in their 4th game in 6 nights.

Beal has scored 44.50 or more FantasyDraft points in all but one game since February 4th and has cleared the 50 point marker in 10 out of the last 14 games. I constantly preach about comparing the ceiling of similarly priced players while taking into the consideration the probability of hitting their ceiling. Beal not only has been one of, if not the most consistent guard and priced player on the slate, but he’s still priced as a major discount.

Andre Drummond is averaging 1.48 FantasyDraft points per minute over the past month and he’s playing heavy minutes, too. The Nets can’t rebound and Drummond had a 24 point and 23 rebound performance the last time these two teams met. In fact, the last time Drummond didn’t have a double-double was all the way back on January 18th. The Nets won’t stop this two month streak and Drummond has scored 50 or more points in 9 out of the last 13, including 5 performances clearing the 60 point mark. This pace-up matchup against a terrible team in the paint is right in Andre’s wheelhouse and I expect a massive game from him at an affordable $16,700. To further my love for Andre today, he comes in as my highest projected points per dollar play on the entire slate.

Jae Crowder likely will have a tough matchup against Paul George, however, back on February 22nd these two teams squared off and Crowder finished with 38.00 FantasyDraft points. Since then, Jae has been playing very good basketball and that has been showing up in the fantasy scoring as well. In fact, just once since that contest he has scored less than 21.75 points and has cleared 27.00 (3.0x value at his current price) in 5 of the 8 games and narrowly missed with a 26.00 point performance. If we want to pay up for Beal, Drummond, and potentially other studs like Russell Westbrook, James Harden, or Paul George, we will need these lower priced guys with solid floors that won’t tank our lineup.

Collin Sexton will be a single-digit owned player due to the daunting matchup against the Toronto Raptors. However, my model has him as a top-10 player tonight and I have a moderately high confidence rating on him as well. At just $8,700 we need about 25 points from him to hit value (3x his salary indicator). He has met or exceeded that value at his current price in 8 out of his last 13 games and scored over 30 in 6 of those 8 games. With a 60% chance of exceeding value and a 75% chance that he hits over 30 if he does, I love his price point and low ownership. If he fails to exceed his price your lineup likely won’t suffer too much either due to his built in floor because of his price.

Harrison Barnes makes for a nice complimentary game stacking piece for the Wizards and Kings game. He has scored 38.50, 39.00, 41.00 and twice failed to meet salary expectations over the last 5 contests. While the volatile production is not ideal in cash contests, it is ideal for our MME or Single Entry GPP purposes at just $10,000. He has played 36, 41, 38, 37, 40, and 38 minutes in the those five games and should continue to play all the minutes he can handle. In a game that could come down to the wire, I have Barnes as a top-5 value and a top-5 overall target on the slate due to his price point and upside at that price.

Does anybody care to guess who has the highest points per minute rate over the past month for this main slate? Okay, if you guessed Russell Westbrook then it’s fair to say you are not a genius. Sorry, that one was too easy. Here’s the tough one. Who has the second highest rate on the main slate? If Kevin Love popped in your head then you are a genius. That’s right, Love and his 1.50 fantasy points per minute is higher than James Harden, Paul George, and a plethora of other strong names. He also has played over 30 minutes in back to back games, showing his health has returned and the team is going to play him more and more. If he racks up another 30+ minutes, even in a tough matchup I expect him to clear the 40 point mark and likely exceed that due to his double-double threat and high usage rate. He’s a  top-10 value play today in my model algorithm and a solid pivot off some chalkier options that I will cover in my game notes.

The rest of my FantasyDraft content and player pool is going to be given away in my Donuts to Dollars NBA Model and Player Pool that will be posted on the site this afternoon. Join up ASAP so that you can take full advantage of this fantasy goodness!

How to NBA DFS Coaching Series

If you want to read up on my “How to NBA DFS” series, give this link a look and watch some of my YouTube videos on many different Daily Fantasy NBA topics. No, seriously. Click that link above and a treasure chest of information and coaching is for your viewing pleasure!

Best Bets and Prop Plays (Click the Images for a FREE OFFER!)

Salute to the Member Success

Our “Member Hall of Fame” is littered with results from the 2015-2019 seasons. I implore you to join our winning team, use our services, tools, articles, podcasts, research station, domination station optimizer, and last but not least, our members-only chat service where you can discuss the DFS slate one-on-one with our Pro’s and coaches. Lastly, use promo DONUTS for 20% off all of the above content and services!

 

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
@DFSnDONUTS