Donuts to Dollars
The modus operandi of the majority of my Daily Fantasy NBA articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal DFS model and projections.
I used my player pool that I put on our website (demonstration video of using optimizer and tutorial on how to use the Donuts to Dollars NBA Model) and pumped out my second solid night over on FantasyDraft in the last week. I give away my personal player pool 6 days per week and discuss the slate with our members in chat. Hope to see you join and kick some butt over there with me. Promo DONUTS gives you 20% off forever!
This is my last 7-days and the dream streak continues over on FantasyDraft!
A Sunday night “for fun” small slate MME after I put the kids to bed!
A few extremely happy members with huge personal success trying out my NBA Model on FantasyDraft this weekend!
My Personal NBA Model
FantasyDraft
Nikola Vucevic is my highest rated player in the NBA DFS Donuts to Dollars model. He also happens to be a top-10 value according to my fantasy points per dollar projection. A combination of a solid floor and exceptional ceiling makes him a DFS darling for the Wednesday main slate. While he is going to be chalk, I don’t mind riding the chalk train when I feel like I can predict the destination. I can envision a massive night for Vuc due to the 29th rated team in the NBA according to rebounding rate. The Wizards just stink in the paint and can’t crash the boards. Fire up Vuc with confidence.
Jarrett Allen is a tough NBA player to figure out. For Daily Fantasy purposes, we can target Allen in tournaments and not worry about trying to peg him on his good night. His volatility will inherently lead to a lower ownership and for MME players, we can take advantage of the concern that most have about using him. Allen is averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute and will be needed to play a fair amount of minutes tonight.
Deandre Ayton is being touted across the industry all morning and for good reason. He is getting a lot of minutes, he is scoring 1.15 fantasy points per minute on the season, and his price tag is affordable. However, even though he’s my second highest rated player in my model, I have a couple of preferred targets I am going to be targeting with a bit more exposure. I’ll be sure to discuss them in my game notes. Those can be found on the website so be sure to check.
Chris Paul went nuts that last time he faced the Warriors, so he’s a must play tonight, right? Well, not exactly. We have to be careful with how we use him in our lineups because we will also want exposure to James Harden. As it stands, the two of them likely should not be in the same lineup. I think both will be quite chalky so there won’t be much to gain by trying to leverage one over the other against the field. Making sure to use them correctly in opposing 2-1 stacks with the correct Warriors will be critical to a successful night of DFS.
Mike Conley is at an awkward price point on Wednesday. I believe this will keep his ownership down. Daily Fantasy players will want to target the higher priced guards or pay down for CP3 and others. This presents us with a nice opportunity to grab a guard who’s on fire at a low ownership. Conley is averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute over the last month. That’s just about the same rate as D’Angelo Russell, however, Conley is playing 6 more MPG than D. Russ.
Bradley Beal is actually one of the lower rated players in my model but I am going to ignore that. He’s my favorite target to ping pong with Nikola Vucevic. I have been riding Beal to glory for the past month and I have zero plans to stop. His 1.42 fantasy points per minute and nearly 40 minutes per game average since the end of January puts him at the top of my list every night. Beal is certain to be lower owned due to NBA fans paying up for either Russell Westbrook or James Harden. If you want a direct price point pivot, Beal is your dude.
He’s affordable, too. For instance, he saves you $2,500 over Harden but can match his score, potentially. So, if you plan on capping your elite exposure, I would roll with Beal and Vucevic. This is how I plan on eating the Vucevic chalk while being semi-unique.
Jonas Valanciunas finds himself in a supreme matchup against the Hawks. I plan on using him as a price point pivot off Deandre Ayton. Just because they’re both similar price doesn’t make him good. For instance, Blake Griffin is nearing their price but I won’t use him. Valanciunas gets to tee off against the fast-paced Atlanta Hawks. He’s averaging 1.38 Daily Fantasy points per minute and checks most boxes. Whether he gets a full 30 plus minutes or not, I love his upside.
The rest of my FantasyDraft NBA DFS content and player pool is going to be given away in my Donuts to Dollars NBA DFS Model. My preliminary Player Pool that will be posted on the site this afternoon. Join up ASAP so that you can take full advantage of this fantasy goodness!
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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
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