Donuts to Dollars
The modus operandi of the majority of my Daily Fantasy NBA articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal DFS model and projections.
I used my player pool that I put on our website (demonstration video of using optimizer and tutorial on how to use the Donuts to Dollars NBA Model) and pumped out my second solid night over on FantasyDraft in the last week. I give away my personal player pool 6 days per week and discuss the slate with our members in chat. Hope to see you join and kick some butt over there with me. Promo DONUTS gives you 20% off forever!
This is my last 7-days and the dream streak continues over on FantasyDraft!
A Sunday night “for fun” small slate MME after I put the kids to bed!
A few extremely happy members with huge personal success trying out my NBA Model on FantasyDraft this weekend!
My Personal NBA Model
FantasyDraft
The Bulls are going to be missing Zach LaVine for Tuesday’s contests at home against the Lakers which should provide us with plenty of Daily Fantasy value. The over/under is currently sitting at 226.0 and the Bulls are slight 1.5 point underdogs with a 112.5. point implied team total. Without LaVine, nearly 34% usage rate will be opened up as well as 36 or so minutes in the back court. Opportunity and minutes will be abundant and the Bulls are priced below value in multiple spots.
Ryan Arcidiacono should play a healthy amount of minutes as a combo guard next to and for Kris Dunn throughout the game. While Ryan doesn’t have the highest ceiling, his price point is a delectable $6,000. With his 0.71 fantasy points per minute rate over the last month and a healthy 30 or so minutes, he should easily clear the 20 point hurdle and return significant value. My personal Donuts to Dollars NBA model actually has him as my highest rated value on the entire slate by a significant amount. He’s going to have high exposure in my MME file tonight and checks all the boxes for me as he should find himself in a strong “minutes up” spot.
Dunn should hold solid value as well, although his 0.81 fantasy points per minute (last four weeks) leaves a lot to be desired. His minutes have been on the decline while Ryan and other players have been getting mixed in more as of late. However, at just 9.8k, I think that Dunn is a nice game stacking option at the very least. However, I’ll temper my expectations and limit my exposure to him for game stack only due to his inherent volatility. This seems like a player that could end up quite chalky due to his cheap price tag but I am not very fond of jumping aboard the chalk train when the destination is not predictable. Otto Porter seems to have a strong direct negative correlation for Dunn and Porter is healthy and active. Again, temper your expectations!
Shaq Harrison has always been a guy that can produce when given minutes and at minimum price ($6,000), Harrison and his 0.81 FP/Min average should be able to hit or exceed value if given the minutes. While those are not dependable and tough to project, I have him set at 24 minutes in my model and with the pace-up matchup, my model has him sitting at 21.5 fantasy points. A nice salary relief option for game stacking.
Otto Porter likely will be a chalky option due to his 1.11 FP/Min over the last month, his price point, and his matchup. His game logs show off his high ceiling (44, 55, 44 in 3 of his last 6 games), so the NBA game log watchers will likely also be on him. Due to the flexibility of rosters we often see players that are chalky on FantasyDraft reach 60-70% ownership. I would not doubt if Porter nears that level. For this reason, I will likely be underweight and look for similar price point pivots. That doesn’t mean I won’t have exposure though so be sure to look at my exposure range and confidence level ratings in my Donuts to Dollars model on the DFS Army website.
In Daily Fantasy NBA, there are just some players that are maddening to use. Jusuf Nurkic is one of those players. His minutes are volatile, his production is volatile, he has a moderately high floor of 25 or so points and a very strong ceiling that can get into the 50’s. But that massive swing that doesn’t always seem to correlate with projected matchup is difficulty to roster. For this reason, he is usually underowned and does not become chalk. However, his price tag might make him chalk on FantasyDraft as he sits at an affordable $13,200 and gets a cake matchup against the Clippers. I’m going to cover my personal exposure to him and exactly how I would use him in lineup builds to get off some of the Bulls chalk while also using some of it.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is in about as good of a spot as one could get and his price tag sits at just $20,300. The Pelicans are bleeding points to opposing teams and Giannis is averaging 1.70 FP/Min over the last month. The only thing that has slowed down Giannis is the Bucks propensity to stifle opposing teams and blow them out before his last rotation. This has limited his scoring ceiling. The Bucks have an implied team total of 122.0 points and are 9.5 favorites on the road, so the implication of a blowout is clearly a concern. However, building lineups without Giannis could leave you looking up in the standings. I’ll be covering how to use him tonight and why I stand where I am on him. This can be found in my game notes section of the DFS model spreadsheet.
Keita Bates-Diop could end up being a LOCK (again), if we find out that he is starting for Andrew Wiggins. With both Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns labeled as questionable for the Tuesday night game against the Nuggets, Bates-Diop could find himself in another favorable situation at just $6,500 on FantasyDraft. We have seen him hammer out back to back superb outings at near minimum price. He has played 36 and 35 minutes in the last two stats, scoring 23.25 and 35.50 fantasy points over the two contests. He has done a good job filling up multiple categories and also took 12 shots in each game. He has a seemingly solid floor due to his all around ability, or at least that is what he appears to have. As a numbers guy I honestly have never seen him play at any level before, but the minutes up situation and opportunity highlight his usability in DFS more than anything else for me. He also would be a nice pivot off some of the cheaper Chicago Bulls. Pay attention to the Timberwolves shoot around report and break down in our News and Notes channel in chat.
The rest of my FantasyDraft DFS content and player pool is going to be given away in my Donuts to Dollars NBA DFS Model and Player Pool that will be posted on the site this afternoon. Join up ASAP so that you can take full advantage of this fantasy goodness!
While you’re at it, give our DFS College Basketball Game Notes a quick read!
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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
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