Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Auburn (75) vs Tennessee (79)
Cincinnati (62) vs Houston (66)
Michigan (67) vs Michigan St (68)
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AUBURN vs TENNESSEE
This is the game that most people are going to target and, unfortunately, I am going to have to agree with the masses in this spot. There is a good chance this game sees a total 20+ points over the other two games. Auburn’s offensive strengths happen to be shooting 3’s and making FTs. Those two strengths happen to align with Tennessee’s basic weaknesses. Guys like Harper and Okeke should be popular in this spot as Harper is playing really well and Okeke had a huge game against UT earlier. I think that Brown goes somewhat overlooked and that should be a mistake today. The last guy that I am actively targeting is Doughty. He shoots the three extremely well and his value price is going to be needed.
Auburn has a decent amount of weaknesses for Tennessee to attack. While Auburn allows teams to make 2’s at a high percentage, they actually allow teams to put up a TON of three-point attempts. Tennessee should be able to control the glass while also getting to the FT line quite a bit. The two guys that are best equipped to attack Auburn are Williams and Schofield. Bone is one of my favorite plays and I think he could be used as a pivot off of Schofield. Turner has been shooting the ball atrociously and makes an interesting GPP play but realize that his floor is very low. Bowden is going to be EXTREMELY popular at his price point.
Preferred Plays: Harper, Okeke, Brown, Doughty, Williams, Bone, Bowden
CINCINNATI vs HOUSTON
This game doesn’t have a lot of weaknesses for us to target. The best way for Cincinnati to target Houston is by attacking the pain and getting to the FT line. Cumberland has been solid against Houston this season but seems to have hit a wall for the most part over the last month or so. Brooks is the Bearcats best interior player at drawing fouls and has had decent success against Houston this season. Tre Scott should garner some ownership based off of how he has played the last couple of games and I think its a solid spot to target.
The biggest weakness of Cincinnati is the biggest strength of Houston. Teams are making over 37% of their 3-point attempts against Cincinnati in conference play and Houston happens to make over 39% of their attempts. Davis Jr and Hinton are the two guys that can attack that weakness the best. Brooks is capable of getting hot from three as well, while Jarreau or Robinson Jr could be in line for a high number of assists. As per usual, I refuse to try and target interior players for Houston as they are such a crap shoot. I do have a lean today and that would be towards White Jr.
Preferred Plays: Brooks, Scott, Davis Jr, Hinton, Jarreau
MICHIGAN vs MICHIGAN ST
There aren’t any obvious ways for Michigan to attack Michigan St. The one thing that stands out to me is the fact that MSU doesn’t force a ton of turnovers. If Michigan is able to run their offense efficiently, they should be able to score in the paint. Brazdeikis is going to be my favorite option and he was their most consistent in the two games against MSU this season. Simpson is playing extremely well and should be popular today but I worry a bit about the match-up. With that said, Winston isn’t 100% so I could see Simpson giving him problems. Poole and Teske are OK options for GPPs but they aren’t exciting in this spot. Livers has been playing really well and I would prefer him over Matthews right now.
Michigan St has a few spots where they should be able to attack Michigan in this game. They should be able to attack the paint, grab rebounds, and block shots. I have been using bigs against Michigan all season so we have to continue that here. The big issue is the fact that Ward is back and muddying the situation some. He dealt with foul issues yesterday and it allowed both Goins and Tillman to do work. Of the three, I prefer Goins the most. Winston played extremely well in both games against Michigan this season and was very solid yesterday but I do not know if we are going to have the $ available to spend on him today. I do have an interest in Henry as a salary saving option.
Preferred Plays: Brazdeikis, Simpson, Goins, Henry
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day. We will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!