Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
St Johns (77) vs DePaul (76)
USF (66) vs UCONN (70)
La Tech (77) vs Florida International (76)
Notre Dame (62) vs Louisville (73)
Wichita St (68) vs SMU (71)
Creighton (72) vs Marquette (80)
Southern Miss (65) vs Western Kentucky (68)
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ST JOHNS vs DEPAUL
St Johns is a team that generally has a lot for us to like. They run a pretty short rotation with their starters being the ones that swallow up all of the usage. The issue is the sort of Jekyll and Hyde team that can make things frustrating. I do think all of the starters are in play for St Johns as they should get up a lot of threes against a zone defense. Ponds missed the first meeting, a St Johns loss, so look for him to try and lead St Johns to a much-needed win. I would rank my preference as Ponds, Clark II, Figueroa, Simon, Heron, Keita. I may end up higher on Clark because of his price point. Keita is in play off the bench because of having to deal with the bigs of DePaul. Heron should play in today’s game and if we hear he is 100% and should play nearly the entire game, you could move him up the rankings as he is their best three-point shooter.
DePaul has really focused on playing through the paint the last half of the season and it has really impressed me. I really like Paul Reed as a basketball player. The problem I have is trying to figure out Reed, Olujobi, and Butz when they play at home. Most of their big games have come on the road. While St Johns doesn’t necessarily allow you to shoot a great % from three, they do give up a higher amount of points from the 3 point line. With that being said, I actually really like Strus now that he is under $8K on DK. I do have some interest in Cain as well.
Preferred Plays: Ponds, Clark, Olujobi, Strus
USF vs UCONN
For USF, it is all about a 3 headed monster. Rideau, Collins, and Yetna are the three main pieces. Yetna has been a bit flat recently and while I like his upside, I do worry about his floor right now. Rideau and Collins combined to score 81% of the points when they were on the floor in the first match-up with UCONN. My preference is going to be Collins because of his cheaper price tag. You could use Durr as a GPP value play who should get you around 4x return.
UCONN is projected to win this game, but I just do not see a ton to like. The only one that really stands out to me as nearly a lock is Gilbert. He is priced too low and is now, seemingly, back up to speed after missing a handful of games. Vital seems to be struggling a bit, but he does have monster GPP upside for us. Carlton has bounced back the last couple of games and could be a solid piece for GPPs if he stays out of foul trouble.
Preferred Plays: Collins, Gilbert
LA TECH vs FIU
LA Tech has been one of my favorite teams to target when they are on the slate. They generally go underpriced which is something we have to attack when we see. Bracey is a near lock for me across everything. He is just too cheap for both his recent production and his upside. FIU is really weak on defense and they get torched by the two (they aren’t great against the three either). FIU is also pretty bad at rebounding the basketball so all this means that my man Duruji is in play and just might be a lock as well. The rest of La Tech’s regular players are GPP plays with Muhammad being my preferred of Archibald, Pemberton, Muhammad, Langston, and Powell.
FIU has a bunch of guys that are slightly over-priced for my taste. Beard Jr is a pretty safe cash game play but that price tag might take his upside away for GPPs. Andrews has upside to go with a pretty low floor, while I think that Osaghae is just too highly priced for this spot. Jacob and Daye are my preferred GPP plays from this team with Nunez and Banks being dart plays.
Preferred Plays: Bracey, Duruji, Daye
NOTRE DAME vs LOUISVILLE
Mooney is priced under 9K on DK and I am freaking out over here. A few weeks ago we would have never thought that would be the case. I think he is an excellent play today and should be safe for 32+ fantasy points. He draws a match-up against a couple of guys who foul a pretty good amount. I like Gibbs for GPPs, but he has burned me before. I was on the Hubb train the last game and he won me some nice money as part of my cash lineup. I won’t be going to him for cash in this one but I do love the minutes he is seeing at the point. Harvey seems like a pretty solid GPP play as well.
Lousiville needs to win this game badly to right their ship as they have really collapsed the last few games. I think Nwora is a fine GPP play but worry about him having hit a bit of a wall to end the season. My eyes popped when I saw Sutton at under $6K on DK, that price is too juicy for me to pass up. I am hoping he goes off in this spot. Cunningham doesn’t excite me at his price point.
Preferred Plays: Mooney, Sutton
WICHITA ST vs SMU
Wichita St is where we are going to go to get some salary relief. The main problem is deciding who to use in this spot. Dennis, Burton, and Midtgaard are all GPP playable with Burton as one of my top cash plays on the slate. I do think McDuffie and Haynes-Jones are in play but lean towards the Dennis and Burton combo because of the price difference. Echenique is an interesting GPP play but I worry about possible foul trouble.
For SMU, I really want exposure to the post players in Mike and Chargois. They both were loads against Wichita St the first time and I expect that to be the case again here. McMurray is always a GPP play for me because of his usage rate. Hunt might be a GPP swerve away from Mike or Chargois for a lot cheaper and at a TON lower ownership.
Preferred Plays: Dennis, Burton, Mike
CREIGHTON vs MARQUETTE
If you make multiple GPP lineups I suggest having a game stack or two of this game. Each team is capable of getting scorching hot and if that happens, the fantasy points will be in abundance. I really like Krampelj and Ballock for the Blue Jays. I can see shares of Alexander and Mintz being strong plays as well. Zegarowski is lower on my list as he is going to have his hands full on defense with Howard.
Marquette is going to be all about Howard for me. He is capable of putting on a show on the floor and has as much scoring upside as anybody in college basketball. Sam Hauser is always in play for me, while his brother Joey is just a blah play at this point in the season. Theo John is interesting but is very volatile due to possible foul issues against Krampelj. If you think John gets into foul trouble then Morrow becomes an interesting GPP play.
Preferred Plays: Krampelj, Howard
SOUTHERN MISS vs WESTERN KENTUCKY
Both Edward and Griffin are definitely in play as GPP options on this slate, however, I do not think I will go there unless I make a handful of lineups for this slate. Harper-Baker is my go-to cash play from USMS as he just continues to rebound like a man who is 4 inches taller than he actually is. Draine is somebody I have a bunch of interest in as a GPP dart. He has nearly 9x upside at his current price point.
Bassey is one of my favorite players in college basketball. He was a big-time recruit that actually chose to go to WKU over the usual big-time players in recruiting. He has monster double-double upside with an insanely high block rate. Hollingsworth and Savage are definitely GPP plays with lower floors. Anderson and Bearden are definitely cash game staples, with Bearden being my preferred of the two.
Preferred Plays: Harper-Baker, Bassey, Bearden
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day and we will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!