Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Florida (66) vs Auburn (68)
Wisconsin (63) vs Michigan St (68)
Houston (78) vs Memphis (72)
Tennessee (73) vs Kentucky (72)
Minnesota (61) vs Michigan (70)
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FLORIDA vs AUBURN
The numbers for Auburn are interesting as they give up a high % of makes from 2 but actually give up a large % of the points against them from 3. Teams are also able to get to the FT line very frequently while also being able to grab blocks and rebounds. I expect K.Johnson to be very popular today and for good reason. His statistical profile fits this match-up and he has been Florida’s best player during the SEC tournament. Hayes is in just as good of a spot as Johnson is but is more expensive and lacks a similar upside. I would get exposure to the guards of Florida in this game because of the 3’s. Allen, Nembhard, and Hudson are all in play for me with Hudson being my favorite on DK and Allen my favorite on FD. Nembhard is probably playing the best of the three.
Auburn is playing pretty solid basketball and we know they should be able to attack the offensive glass, get to the FT line and make shots in the paint against Florida. The one thing I worry about is their tendency to fall in love with the three rather than attack the basket. I am going to ride Okeke until he stops leaving me disappointed. He’s had solid match-ups recently but hasn’t responded. Harper is always in play for me as he is capable of attacking the hoop and he draws a ton of fouls. Brown is a GPP play for me as he has to make threes to get to value against a team that doesn’t allow teams to shoot all that many of them. I really like the value combination of Doughty and Spencer in this spot.
Preferred Plays: Johnson, Hudson, Nembhard, Okeke, Spencer
WISCONSIN vs MICHIGAN ST
Statistically, we know that Wisconsin would be best attacking the rim with 2’s and grabbing offensive rebounds. The problem is that Wisconsin doesn’t grab a ton of offensive rebounds and they aren’t super efficient in the lane. I think Happ is going to come out a bit embarrassed after his horrible performance yesterday and he should be extremely low owned. We have to continue to ride Iverson while he is scoring and his recent aggressive style might be a plus in this spot. I think you can look to use Trice, Davison or Reuvers as a GPP dart play with Reuvers being my preferred. I wouldn’t argue with an Aleem Ford dart play if you think Happ or Reuvers end up in some foul issues.
We know that Wisconsin is not the best at defending around the hoop and they are a terrible offensive rebounding team. The problem with MSU is that Ward returned from injury and kind of muddies the F position for them. While I normally do not target Wisconsin with guards, I think I can make an exception for Winston as he is very much match-up proof. I think Goins is the big man that I want the most but Tillman and Ward could certainly pay off as GPP plays. McQuaid and Henry make sense as GPP plays due to their price points.
Preferred Plays: Happ, Iverson, Winston
HOUSTON vs MEMPHIS
Houston has 5 guards that are definitely in play today but I will only have exposure to 4 of them. While Memphis does an excellent job of defending the three, we can’t deny the run the guards of Houston have been on. Davis Jr is shooting the ball with extreme confidence right now while Brooks is playing really well and had a monster game against Memphis earlier this season. Jarreau is attacking and distributing extremely well and Hinton is just knocking everything down. Robinsin Jr is the one guy that I will skip over as I would rather use Jarreau or Hinton around his price point. The forward position is a crap shoot so I am going to avoid it completely.
Memphis has a chance to tighten the bubble if they continue this run they are on. The problem is that Houston has an elite defense and should be able to limit Memphis’ best player, Martin. With that being said, Martin is definitely in play for GPP purposes because of his insane upside. The best way for us to attack Houston is on the interior, where they commit a ton of fouls. Guys like Davenport, Brewton Jr, and even Maurice are the ones that interest me the most. Davenport might end up being one of my favorite plays on the slate and I rarely have used him. Thornton‘s price has dropped enough to make him viable but he hasn’t been playing that well recently.
Preferred Plays: Davis Jr, Jarreau, Hinton, Davenport, Brewton Jr
TENNESSEE vs KENTUCKY
This game is going to be electric and will be a blast to watch. The problem with it for DFS purposes is the fact that both teams are priced up. That makes it tough to figure out how to attack it. For Tennessee, I want exposure to Williams, Bone, and maybe a share of Turner. We know that the 3 ball is the best way to attack Kentucky right now. This may be a game we want to game stack rather than try to predict which one-off is going to blow up.
We know that Washington and Herro went off in one of the two match-ups this season. They definitely offer us GPP upside. I think that Travis has a chance to be a surprise in this spot as he looked pretty solid in his return yesterday. I do like the idea of using Hagans and Johnson as GPP plays but I am not prioritizing them.
Preferred Plays: Williams, Bone, Washington, Travis
MINNESOTA vs MICHIGAN
On paper, Minnesota should be in a ton of trouble today but thankfully that isn’t a guarantee. Minnesota is playing extremely well and has the interior to cause problems for Michigan. Murphy is playing really well and should be somebody we target today. Oturu looked really good yesterday and should be able to attack the rim. We can’t forget about Coffey as he has been playing extremely well and I think has an advantage against a less than 100% Matthews.
For Michigan, we should be targeting the usual suspects in Simpson and Teske. I love the idea of using Brazdeikis and Livers as GPP plays and think they could be difference makers in this game. If they are on their game, I think Minnesota struggles to defend them. This game is going to be all about points in the paint. It makes sense for us to attack the guys that are efficient 2-point scorers.
Preferred Plays: Murphy, Oturu, Simpson, Teske, Brazdeikis
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day. We will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!