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DFS College Basketball Game Notes For Draftkings and Fanduel Day Slate 3/14/2019

Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land!  You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army.  I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season!  Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play.  Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel.  The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.

 

Providence (64) vs Villanova (70)
Iowa St (74) vs Baylor (71)
Indiana (65) vs Ohio St (64)
NC State (61) vs Virginia (73)
Arkansas (65) vs Florida (68)
UCONN (69) vs USF (68)
Creighton (74) vs Xavier (71)
TCU (61) vs Kansas St (65)
Virginia Tech (70) vs Florida St (67)
USC (66) vs Washington (71)
Nebraska (67) vs Maryland (70)
Missouri (65) vs Auburn (73)

 

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PROVIDENCE vs VILLANOVA

Providence is coming off of a pretty easy win against Butler to start their journey through the Big East tournament.  This game is going to be a ton more difficult.  The way to attack Nova for DFS purposes is via threes and assists.  They are near the bottom of the Big East in allowing assists and over 37% of the points against them come from 3.  I am going to stick to riding Jackson based on his recent play even with his price crossing the $6K mark on both sites.  I have GPP interest in White and Reeves from the Guard position and a deep GPP interest in K.Young.  Young has taken some minutes away from Watson and offers us enough upside at his price point.

Villanova should be able to attack Providence on the interior and at the FT line.  This brings two guys to the forefront, Paschall and Samuels.  Samuels is going to be a popular value play, yet again.  I prefer Paschall over Booth in this match-up but will have a decent amount of Booth as well.  This is the time for lead guards to shine as the season winds down and Booth has played very well against Providence this season.

Preferred Plays:  Jackson, White, Paschall, Samuels

 

IOWA ST vs BAYLOR

The categories to attack Baylor in are FTs, 3-point shooting, assists, and blocks.  Baylor hasn’t been elite at 2-point defense in conference play but it’s not something that stands out as a must target.  I think there are a lot of GPP plays on Iowa St but I just do not see myself going out my way to target many of them based on their pricing and the balanced play they have recently had.  My preferred play is Wigginton as he seems to be coming on strong.  I am considering using Conditt IV as a GPP dart play based on his price and the fact he has been playing more than Lard.

Baylor has the perfect team to attack Iowa St’s weaknesses.  Teams shoot the three extremely well against Iowa St, even though they do not necessarily allow a ton to be taken.  Teams are able to attack the glass against them, especially on the offensive end where Baylor is the top team in the Big12.  Mason says he is going to play and if he does I think he makes an excellent GPP option with Bandoo stepping in as a solid option should Mason be held out.  My two favorite plays are Kegler and Butler in this spot.  This spot seems ideal for their particular games and they should be extremely important if Baylor wants to advance.  I think you can consider Vital as a GPP option and Gillespie as an interesting GPP dart option with upside.

Preferred Plays:  Wigginton, Kegler, Butler

 

INDIANA vs OHIO ST

The best way for Indiana to attack Ohio St is via the 2 and from the FT line.  They also should be able to control the defensive glass in this spot.  That makes me want to target Morgan, J.Smith, and D.Davis.  I am not against using Langford or Green in your GPP lineups but I will be prioritizing others around their price points.

While Indiana is not a very good team they do not have any glaring weaknesses to attack.  The best way to attack them is via the 2, with blocks, and with rebounds.  They aren’t elite at defending the three either.  Sounds like K.Wesson will be making his return from suspension in this game and I think he makes an excellent GPP option.  He could be extremely motivated after having to sit out the end of the regular season.  I have interest in Jackson for GPPs as he looked healthy against Wisconsin.  Ahrens should draw ownership as a GPP value play and I wouldn’t argue against it.

Preferred Plays:  Morgan, J.Smith, K.Wesson

 

NC STATE vs VIRGINIA

NC State players are going to carry next to zero ownership in this spot and I think that is something we can use to our advantage in GPPs.  I won’t recommend having a ton of ownership of these guys but I do like them as GPP plays.  First off, I am sticking with my man Markell Johnson.  He continues to play his best on the road and in big spots.  The other two guys play down low as Virginia is a team I have had success targeting bigs against throughout the season.  Walker had a big game against them during the regular season and makes a solid GPP play, while Funderburk makes a GPP play because he has the greater upside of the two.

The NC State defense does a great job of pushing you off of the 3-point line, which explains their near upset of Virginia during the regular season.  Attacking the paint and getting to the FT line are the best ways for Virginia to have success.  This makes Hunter one of my favorite plays on this slate.  He is dangerous all over the floor and is a defensive stud who could pick up his fair share of steals.  Jerome is certainly in play and has a pretty solid floor for cash games while Diakite and Huff interest me as GPP plays.

Preferred Plays:  M.Johnson, Hunter

 

ARKANSAS vs FLORIDA

The player in the best spot for Arkansas is Gafford.  The problem is I do not think I want to pay that price for him, in a game that should be slower paced.  He definitely has GPP upside but I think I am looking elsewhere.  Mason Jones had a huge game against Florida earlier in the season and has had a couple of big time games recently so I think he can be considered for GPPs.  I prefer to take Joe when he is at home so I will be avoiding him here.  Sills makes an interesting punt play and should be considered in all formats.

Arkansas is a pretty bad team as they allow teams to make shots all over the floor while also sending teams to the FT line a TON.  They are also a terrible rebounding team overall.  Florida has a few guys I am interested in for GPP purposes and another guy that may end up one of my core plays, depending on how construction works out.  As I stated earlier, this is the time of year that upperclassmen guards try to carry their teams so Allen intrigues me because we know he has upside, even if he has struggled recently.  Hayes really interests me against a team that is terrible at rebounding.  He is also on a bit of a heater so I will definitely make sure to have exposure.  Johnson has GPP upside even though he has become extremely inconsistent the last few weeks.  The guy that will probably end up in my core is Jalen Hudson.  I have been waiting for this version of Hudson all season long and I am going to ride him while he is hot.

Preferred Plays:  Sills, Hayes, Hudson

 

UCONN vs USF

I think this game goes overlooked and that intrigues me quite a bit.  Jalen Adams returned from injury and looked excellent last time out.  He is going to be one of my priority spends a lot of my GPP lineups.  Vital is a GPP play but one that I won’t actively be targeting because of my love of Carlton.  While foul trouble scares me somewhat, I think he has been playing with extreme confidence and the interior of the USF defense is not something to be afraid of.  Polley has the ability to get hot from the outside so at his price he makes a solid GPP value dart.

USF revolves around whether Rideau plays or not.  If he does return to the lineup, I absolutely love him in this spot.  If he is out, then I will look to use Collins and Castaneda as my main USF exposures.  Yetna is an interesting GPP option and somebody I will make sure I have a couple of shares of.  Make sure to be searching for Rideau news all morning long.

Preferred Plays:  Adams, Carlton, Rideau (If he plays), Castaneda

 

 

CREIGHTON vs XAVIER

Creighton has one of my top plays on the slate in Krampelj.  I love the confidence he is playing with and the match-up is a positive one for us to attack.  The other options are just random GPP plays for me as Ballock is coming off a monster performance which will probably lead him to be higher owned than he should be, Zegarowski is still shooting it terribly after hurting his hand this season, and Alexander has an extremely low floor for a high priced player.  With all of that said, each player has merits to playing in GPPs as Creighton is projected to put up 74 points and each player has shown a serious upside.

It sounds as if Marshall is going to play in this one so he makes sense for GPPs.  With Marshall expected to return, I think we have to bump Scruggs down and probably avoid him outside of game stacks.  Jones always intrigues me thanks to his upside but he does commit stupid fouls at times.  Goodin comes across as an OK cash game play for me with very little upside while Hankins is the opposite for me as he has big time upside at his price.

Preferred Plays:  Krampelj, Jones

 

TCU vs KANSAS ST

TCU is coming off of a thrilling win and may come out inspired in this spot.  The problem is KSU’s defense is very good and that could take the upside away from the high priced TCU players.  The two players that I would consider in a deeper GPP are Bane and Noi.  The reason is that both of these guys are capable of getting scorching hot from 3.  Kansas St gives up a decent amount of 3-point attempts so that could play into TCU’s offense in this spot.  I would consider Nembhard as a GPP punt play on both sites.

This is a tough spot to figure out for Kansas St.  Wade is expected to either be severely limited during the Big12 tournament or miss it entirely at this point.  With that happening, Sneed will play more of the 4 while Diarra returns to take minutes at the 3.  This sounds excellent for us except for the fact that Stokes is now questionable with head/migraine issues.  While I do not think we can pay the price for Brown, he does make an interesting GPP play.  Depending on the status of Stokes, we may have to look to McGuirl to join Mawien as possible GPP salary savers. The best place to attack TCU is on the interior.

Preferred Plays: Diarra, Sneed, Mawien

 

VIRGINIA TECH vs FLORIDA ST

Virginia Tech’s offensive strengths line-up perfectly with Florida St’s defensive weaknesses.  The Hokies are elite at shooting the 3 and they are one of the best in the ACC at getting to the FT line.  The issue with all of that is that the two guys that are ones we would want to target are expensive.  Alexander-Walker let a lot of us down on Wednesday so he could be in line for a GPP bounceback while Blackshear rewarded those who used him but he recently fouled out in just 23 minutes against FSU.  Hill, Outlaw, and Bede are all in play for GPPs but I do not see myself going out of my way to plug one of them in as of now.

While I normally like to find ways to use guys from FSU, I may end up with very limited exposure here.  I could see Mann fitting well into the game script and makes sense as a GPP play.  The inside-outside game of Kabengele is probably the best way to target FSU as he went off against VT a week ago.  Koumadje barely played in that game and doesn’t seem to fit this particular game script.  I could see somebody like Walker garnering some random GPP ownership as well.

Preferred Plays:  Alexander-Walker, Kabengele

 

USC vs WASHINGTON

This is a tough match-up for USC but that doesn’t mean I hate everybody.  Boatwright is one of my favorite players to use for DFS purposes and is coming off of a monster performance against Arizona.  If Boatwright struggles in this game then I expect Rakocevic to pick up the slack and have a solid game.  Both guys went for 32+ fantasy points against UW this season.  The only other guy I would think about using is Weaver due to his cheap price tag and inclusion in the starting lineup.

For the Huskies, I think it is very obvious that we want to target three guys.  Nowell makes a solid cash game option at his price point while Thybulle and Dickerson offer us immense GPP upside.  Both Thybulle and Dickerson went off in the first match-up between these two teams so we know they have GPP winning upside.  Thanks to the fact that USC will run a zone, Crisp does have some GPP upside thanks to his shooting ability.

Preferred Plays:  Boatwright, Thybulle, Dickerson

 

NEBRASKA vs MARYLAND

With Nebraska being extremely short handed we want to attack this game quite a bit.  Both Palmer and Roby had a couple of monster performances against Maryland in their two match-ups this season and Palmer has gone for 40+ in three straight games.  He is one of my favorite GPP plays on the slate.  Watson is a solid cash game play and does offer us some upside if he is knocking down his threes.  I expect Trueblood to be extremely popular as he has played 26 minutes in back to back games while Thorbjarnarson has just played 32 minutes combined over the last two.

This is a spot where Fernando and J.Smith should dominate on the interior.  These two combined to average nearly 75 fantasy points per game against Nebraska in the 2 match-ups.  You can definitely consider Cowan Jr and Morsell for GPPs but I am going to stick with the guys down low against an interior that has been getting pounded since the loss of Copeland.

Preferred Plays:  Palmer, Roby, Trueblood, Fernando, J.Smith

 

MISSOURI vs AUBURN

Missouri is generally a team we do not target and I think the majority of the field will skip over them.  That opens up a guy like Geist to very low ownership in a spot that I think he offers us upside.  I will not have a ton of shares but I do think he makes sense.  The other two guys that I have interest in are Pinson and Watson.  Pinson is coming off of a solid game while Watson played a ton of minutes but struggled quite a bit.

The only guys that I have an interest in from Auburn are Okeke and Harper.  I really like Okeke’s upside in a spot where he probably goes lower owned due to all the other studs on the slate.  Harper is the engine to the Auburn train and they will go as far as he is able to carry them in the postseason.  Brown will carry a little ownership and while it makes sense because of his shooting, I would prefer to look elsewhere around his price point.

Preferred Plays:  Pinson, Okeke

 

 

 

Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out!  We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long.  I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day and we will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction.  I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!