Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games sample size. NHL Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it. PPMU is another telling metric, but I save that one for VIPs. Just ask me in our coaching forums…
My plan is to describe the NHL games some and drop quality players in these lists. You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later). My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues. They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts. The core gets you to the dance. The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money. Your core is everything! Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.
Carolina Hurricanes @ Washington Capitals
Odds: WAS -140, 6 o/u
Carolina enters tonight in with a slightly struggling offense perhaps not best suited to target in DFS currently. Names like Aho and Williams were fine a couple weeks back, but as you’ll sense in tonight’s theme, they are likely overpriced now due to drop offs in recent production. GPP plays are ok, but cash games focus on value…..and there isn’t a lot of it here. Goalie – Not facing WAS PP units with a middling penalty kill.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Staal (C), Svechnikov (W)
Cash viable – Svechnikov, Pesce (D)
GPP Sleepers – none
Washington draws a slightly better matchup tonight with a MU Score of 64. However, that 64 isn’t necessarily indicating we should blindly lock in Capitals skaters. CAR is a defensive team and we need to use some judgement regarding how much exposure we want here. There may be softer spots on the slate to attack. The WAS PP1 is always viable, and Alex Ovechkin can break open any slate in any matchup, but we still need to temper our expectations a smidge. Goalie – GPP viable but not one of my favorite spots.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Ovechkin (W), Connolly (C), Kuznetsov (C), Oshie (W)
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – WAS PP1 viable, but not a sleeper
New York Islanders @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Odds: CBJ -145, 5.5 o/u
Dueling MU Scores in the mid to low 40s means I’m out. I really have no need here other than to look at goalies. We might find a lower owned one-off on the Islanders, but it’s not the kind that usually wins you a gpp because it breaks the slate on its own. Usually, the kind of one-off you find in this game is a cash-viable punt purely for saving salary. Goalie – I’m siding with Vegas in this one and leaning the other direction.
5 Star Plays – Boychuk (D)
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – none
Same DFS NHL deep-diving analysis here recommending punt one-offs only in this specific matchup. Columbus isn’t scoring in buckets right now, and New York is rather defensive. Bad offense vs good defense = no bueno para DFS. Goalie – I will be using the CBJ goalie, however. The -145 odds are ok, but the opposing MU Score of 41 gives me a warm, fuzzy feeling of safety in all formats.
5 Star Plays – Anderson (W)
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – Anderson
GPP Sleepers – Anderson is the type that has upside to be a one-off and win you a gpp.
Florida Panthers @ Montreal Canadiens
Odds: MTL -185, 6 o/u
On the other hand, Florida gives us a comparatively high MU Score of 65 tonight. We have to take what the slate offers, and the Panthers bring the 2nd highest score on the night making for a good spot to target skaters. MTL is defensive, too, but has struggled a bit lately. The strength of the Panthers is the power play, and the MTL kill has been their Achilles heel the past few games. I would focus on the bigger names of Barkov, Hoffman, Huburdeau, Dadanov, and Yandle because there will be some nice value elsewhere on the slate to free up cap space. Goalie – Not in a potential shootout.
5 Star Plays – Barkov (C)
4 Star Plays – Huburdeau (W), Hoffman (W), Trochek (C), Dadanov (W)
Cash viable – Huburdeau, Hoffman, Weegar (D)
GPP Sleepers – PP1 combos
The flipside of the coin here yields another 60+ MU Score for Montreal…….giving us the shootout potential for a full game stack. I’m going to want to dig into the MTL skaters for some hotter production, but my eyes are clearly on this game, and I’ll want both sides of it in varying combinations to cover a few bases. Goalie – Also, not in a potential shootout.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Gallagher (W), Domi (C), Shaw (W), Weber (D), Tatar (W), Thompson (W)
Cash viable – Weber, Thompson
GPP Sleepers – MTL1 with Weber
Buffalo Sabres @ Ottawa Senators
Odds: BUF -115, 6 o/u
Lowly Buffalo….my how the mighty have fallen. Why do we focus on shorter samples? Because in November, we were loving the Buffalo offense and hating the St. Louis offense. Now, however, the tables have completely flipped. Buffalo is a trainwreck scoring only 1.9 goals per game in their last 10. And, St. Louis has won 4 in a row again, and 5 of their last 6. I’m not making a habit of looking to skaters on teams failing to score 2 goals per game. That’s a recipe for redeposit. Goalie – How is BUF favored here? The defense in front allows 3.8 goals against per game…..I have no use for a goalie facing continual barrages like that.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Eichel (C), Nylander (W)
Cash viable – Nylander
GPP Sleepers – none
Ottawa surprisingly enters tonight’s game with the highest MU Score on the night with a 68. While that’s not the 75s we’ve seen, it is what it is….and it begs for some attention. The key is going to be finding the scoring. I love our skater’s tab in our Research Station for that. I can sort out the OTT skaters and isolate only them. Scrolling right can further drill down by sorting the L10 and L5 columns for trends in scoring and figure out a correlated stack to assemble that gives me the best shot at fully capitalizing on our night’s best matchup. Goalie – Maybe for GPPs, but I’m not likely to target a 5050 game out of Vegas.
5 Star Plays – Demelo (D), Tkachuk (W)
4 Star Plays – Lindberg (W), Ryan (W), Chabot (D)
Cash viable – Demelo, Tkachuk, Lindberg
GPP Sleepers – Any correlated stack of skaters
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Los Angeles Kings @ Edmonton Oilers
Odds: EDM -210, 6 o/u
I pride myself on transparency, and I really don’t know where I’m heading in this game. The dueling MU Scores of 58 for each team have me a little perplexed. LA Kings aren’t scoring, so I’m leaning against using them, and will likely focus on the EDM side of this one. But, I can’t deny the presence of another possible shootout. Even the power play/penalty kill matchups indicate some scoring might erupt tonight. Long shot GPP stuff, but if you have the balls, dive in. Goalie – Not this side of the game as a -210 underdog.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Brown (W), Carter (C)
Cash viable – Walker (D)
GPP Sleepers – none
Edmonton, however, has some skating potential tonight. They aren’t exactly blowing roofs off, but the talent is there if you want to gamble. I’m most interested in the goalie. Goalie – I like bigger favorites facing struggling offenses. This game fits the bill nicely, and I’ll be using the EDM goalie in all formats tonight.
5 Star Plays – Kassian (W)
4 Star Plays – McDavid (C), Draisatil (W), Nugent-Hopkins (C)
Cash viable – Kassian, McDavid
GPP Sleepers – EDM1
Anaheim Ducks @ Vancouver Canucks
Odds: VAN -140, 5.5 o/u
Sneaky, sneaky…..Anaheim has been the butt of my jokes all year. But, tonight, they actually draw a somewhat respectable 62 for MU Score. Scoring is up, the power play ranks 4th in the league recently, and those are all good signs. We just need to find the skaters doing the damage. My guess is most of the league is unaware of this spot tonight, and that makes this a very dangerous game for gpps and even cash games. Goalie – Probably not being the game might produce scoring on both sides.
5 Star Plays – Rakell (C), Silvferberg (W)
4 Star Plays – Fowler (D)
Cash viable – Rakell, Silvferberg, Fowler
GPP Sleepers – ANA2 with Fowler
While the Canucks side doesn’t offer a ton of even-strength scoring potential, the Ducks are allowing goals recently as their own offense kicks up a notch. Often we see that….when a team scores, they open themselves up for counterattacks and their defense slips. Vancouver plays a fast north-south game and should be ready to pounce on some opportunities to counter quickly. I also like the power play here being the ANA kill is among league worst right now. The VAN PP1 is where I’m focused tonight. Goalie – Again, probably not being this game might have some pace and scoring to it.
5 Star Plays – Edler (D)
4 Star Plays – Petterson (C), Boeser (W)
Cash viable – Edler
GPP Sleepers – VAN PP1
Chicago Blackhawks @ Arizona Coyotes
Odds: ARI -130, 6 o/u
Again, we need to watch recency. Chicago was just printing money for us for a couple months. Now, they all look like counterfeit bills. Under 3 goals per game in scoring and priced like they are still scoring 4+. Prices in DFS rise much faster than they fall, and this DFS-screw job renders many Blackhawks overpriced still. Neither team here offers much anyway. The slate is just putrid enough to consider them as gpp plays, but I’ll largely be on the fade and hoping everyone gets trapped into chasing bad numbers. Goalie – I’ll pass on a CHI road goalie.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Gustafsson (C), Toews (C)
Cash viable – Gustafsson, Toews
GPP Sleepers – none
Arizona at home is something to keep an eye on, and there might be some value here. However, the CHI defense isn’t the cavernous sinkhole it used to be. With Arizona struggling to put biscuits in baskets, and CHI not giving like a corrupt charity, we need to temper expectations on the quality of these plays even as cheap as they are. I’d keep myself limited to one-offs at best. Goalie – GPP viable based on CHI struggles, but knowing the big skaters can erupt again at any time……risky.
5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Hinostroza (W)
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleepers – none
Here is a quick game preview of our NHL Research Station page. If you remember, the game shot out and was an easy spot to point out via most research processes. However, the specific targets also matter. Our page helps you quickly assess game by game and scoring line by scoring line to find the best targets for the DFS dollar. As a VIP, you unlock access to this page, and you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view. 99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page. Your research has never been easier!!
Hockey is incredibly similar to baseball. Are you getting spring fever? Fire up a quick refresher with The Top 5 Stats You’ll Only Find At DFS Army!
Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs. However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you. It’s not for the feint of heart, and it has a high likelihood of failure. But, I saw this on the matchup sheet and will be playing it sporadically myself tonight…
GPP Sleeper stack = ANA2 w/ Fowler – I would avoid Devin Shore and simply play the three mentioned (Rakell/Silvferberg/Fowler) for the lower ownership spot that actually has some logic to it. Cheap and productive, this stack makes way for some of the heavier hitters that might actually be your real gambles tonight given the recent consistency from these three.
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.