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DFS Army – NHL Breakaway Advice and Strategy for Fanduel and Draftkings – March 30

Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players.  If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team!  Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.

NHL DFS At A Glance

The first thing I do when starting my research is look for strong teams facing weak defenses.  I want the best odds I can find to tally goals.  I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net.  It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine.  You can’t score if you don’t shoot.  I also love the “High Danger” metrics.  These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds.  They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.

If you have questions regarding these numbers, or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums.  Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page.  First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.

Washington Capitals @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Odds:  TB -185, 7.0 o/u

Washington Capitals:  Washington has not performed well from an advanced stats standpoint lately but they are 5th in goals in their last 10 and are shooting 10.66% during that span, good for 2nd best in the league. They’ve faced TB twice this month and in each of those games, 9 goals have been scored, it is fair to expect another high event match-up between the two. Ideally, with better spots than playing TB on this slate, we can get Ovechkin at low ownership, low owned star players are the best low owned plays. With TB holding a decent advantage at 5v5 I like going WSHPP1 for exposure to the Caps. The flu bug is apparently going around in the Caps locker room so be sure to keep an eye on any scratches.

5 star plays –  Ovechkin
4 star plays – Backstrom, Wilson, Carlson
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Vrana, Connolly

Tampa Bay Lightning: The best team in the league is always in play and with 9 goals total goals scored in each of these teams last two meetings it looks like a good spot. Outside of the obvious options of the top 6, Anthony Cirelli has registered a point in 8 out of his last 9 games. He plus one of Killorn/Joseph make for a very nice cheap GPP mini stack. JT Miller remains an elite value play as long as he remains on TB1.

5 star plays – Kucherov, Stamkos
4 star plays – Cirelli, Point, Hedman
Cash viable – Kucherov, Cirelli-Killorn-Joseph (only one, Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Killorn, Cirelli, Joseph (TB3 stack)

Montreal Canadiens @ Winnipeg Jets

Odds:  WPG -150, 5.5 o/u

Montreal Canadiens:  Creating chances and bleeding chances, that has been Montreal’s moto as of late. Winnipeg has bled shots but has done a good job of limiting the scoring chances but it looks like MTL’s plan is to play high event hockey and let their goalie stop the numerous chances they allow. For exposure to MTL, I’d be looking to the powerplay with the nice value of Domi and Tatar. On FanDuel, Petry is still criminally underpriced at $3900, he makes for a great cash value play over there.

5 star plays –  none
4 star plays – Domi, Tatar, Petry (FanDuel only)
Cash viable – Petry (FanDuel only, CASH LOCK), Mete (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Tatar, Domi, Petry

Winnipeg Jets: It is safe to say that with the talent on the roster, Winnipeg is currently underperforming. Coming in at almost dead last in HDCF this team is somehow shooting at 9.38% which is good for 7th in the league over the last 10 games. As we talked about MTL’s approach, it is a very good matchup to exploit for the Jets. Winnipeg’s offensive talent is far superior than Montreal’s, meaning to me that they should have a good chance to get those high danger chances they’ve been lacking as of late. I would not commit a majority of my salary to Winnipeg so I’d be looking to a Hayes-Laine mini stack.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Hayes, Laine, Ehlers, Scheifele, Myers
Cash viable – Myers (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Ehlers, Hayes (PP2 stack)

Buffalo Sabres @ New York Islanders

Odds:  NYI -225, 5.5 o/u

Buffalo Sabres:  The Sabres have been nothing but bad lately and are now out of playoff contention because of it. I don’t think this team has any juice left so I would be looking elsewhere.

5 star plays –  none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable –  none
GPP Sleeper – none

New York Islanders: A matchup does not get much better than playing the Sabres right now. Barzal and Eberle immediately stand out to me as the plays. Their price is cheap and their upside is high. Devon Toews is now on PP1 and at only $3500 he makes a great value play in cash.

5 star plays – Barzal
4 star plays – Eberle, Toews, Lee
Cash viable – Toews (Value Play), Barzal, Eberle
GPP Sleeper – Dal Colle

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Ottawa Senators

Odds:  TOR -215, 7.0 o/u

Toronto Maple Leafs: No one has been shooting the puck as much as Toronto, over their last 10 they own the most shots for with 623, the next closest team in Montreal with 576, so I’d say it’s safe to assume they’re going to score some goals against the Senators. The Leafs could be the highest owned team tonight meaning I would want to get unique while rostering them in GPPs. A great way to do that is a Matthews/Tavares PP stack, it is a pricy stack but the ceiling is for sure there and with value options like Nylander, Johnsson, and Hyman, not many people will be rostering both centers in the same line.

5 star plays –  Matthews, Tavares
4 star plays – Marner, Kadri, Johnsson, Nylander, Reilly, Muzzin
Cash viable – Nylander, Johnsson (roster at least one of Nylander, Johnsson), Hyman, Matthews, Reilly, Tavares,
GPP Sleeper – Kadri, Kapanen

Ottawa Senators: Toronto has allowed 32 goals, most in the league, over the last 10 games, which puts the Senators in play in GPPs. With the Senators being terrible I would not get cute with my plays here. A PP1 stack of White, Chabot, Tkachuk presents the highest ceiling to me.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Tkachuk, Chabot
Cash viable – DeMelo
GPP Sleeper – White, Chabot, Tkachuk

St. Louis Blues @ New Jersey Devils

Odds:  STL -205, 5.5 o/u

St. Louis Blues:  Admitting they took the Rangers “too lightly…” yesterday, I expect this team to come out firing against one of the few teams worse than the Rangers, New Jersey. STL1 immediately comes to mind again, them and TOR1 and TOR2 make for the best cash lines of this slate. Even on a B2B, it’s safe to assume O’Reilly and Tarasenko will be over 20% owned in GPPs, so for you chalk haters I believe a pivot to Perron and Schenn (PP1 stack) is very viable in GPPs.

5 star plays –  O’Reilly, Tarasenko
4 star plays – Schenn, Perron, Pietrangelo
Cash viable – O’Reilly, Tarasenko, Pietrangelo, Schenn
GPP Sleeper – Perron, Schenn

New Jersey Devils: They couldn’t even score a goal against the Red Wings last night. I would not be rostering them against a Blues team that will be playing with some fire in their hearts tonight after an embarrassing loss to the Rangers.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

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Columbus Blue Jackets @ Nashville Predators

Odds:  NSH -135, 5.5 o/u

Columbus Blue Jackets:  After a short tailspin the Jackets are currently tied for the last wild-card spot in the East, making it now or never for them. Nashville is on a B2B and just gave up 43 shots to the Penguins. CBJ1 sticks out as the immediate play, their cold streak of late should keep their ownership relatively low, a mini stack of Dubois, Panarin/Atkinson is as strong of a GPP stack as any.

5 star plays –  none
4 star plays – Dubois, Atkinson, Panarin, Jones
Cash viable – Anderson (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Duchene, Dzingel

Nashville Predators: On a B2B and against a good Blue Jackets team I believe there are better home favorites to target on this slate than Nashville.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Smith, Subban

Vegas Golden Knights @ San Jose Sharks

Odds:  SJ -140, 6.0 o/u

Vegas Golden Knights:  After losing to the Wild last night it is hard to love the Knights against a much stronger SJ team (minus the goaltending). With the value that Vegas presents on a nightly basis, I would not completely write them off. Statsny/Pacioretty are a good value GPP stack.

5 star plays –  none
4 star plays – Statsny, Pacioretty, Theodore
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Statsny, Pacioretty, Stone

San Jose Sharks: Vegas goaltending has been atrocious since Fleury went down and the Sharks forwards have been producing chances. With Vegas on a B2B on the road, the Sharks have plenty of meat to pick from. Hertl has registered a point in 3 of his last 4 and you can pair him with almost min priced Radil. SJ1 with Meier-Couture-Nyquist is a solid line and most players with Sharks exposure will more than likely be looking to Hertl-Radil to get it making them a great pivot option.

5 star plays – Hertl, Burns
4 star plays – Couture, Radil, Meier, Kane, Nyquist
Cash viable – Hertl, Radil (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – I’d stick to SJ1 and not get cute.

Anaheim Ducks @ Edmonton Oilers

Odds:  EDM -150, 5.5o/u

Anaheim Ducks:  On a B2B on the road where they only registered 22 shots on goal the night before, do not look to the Ducks tonight.

5 star plays –  none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none

Edmonton Oilers: McDavid and Draisaitl have been reunited on the first line. Outside of that, the lines in Edmonton are terrible, so stick to EDM1 for exposure. Those 2 players have the been the top producers for this team all year and I do not like banking on anyone outside of them while rostering the Oilers. Kassian gets to line up next to those two but with better value options (who are actually good hockey players) he is far from the best value play.

5 star plays – McDavid
4 star plays – Draisaitl, Klefbom
Cash viable – McDavid
GPP Sleeper – Nugent-Hopkins, Chiasson

Dallas Stars @ Vancouver Canucks

Odds:  DAL -140, 5.5 o/u

Dallas Stars: The Stars have been a sound team recently and a matchup against Vancouver is exploitable. Seguin and Radulov are back together and they’ve produced well together all year. Janmark gets to line up next to them making him a low owned value option. Heiskanen has at least 4 DK fantasy points in his last 3 games and I expect the young Star to keep close to that pace again tonight and at only $4100 to boot.

5 star plays –  none
4 star plays – Seguin, Radulov, Heiskanen
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – DAL1 should be low owned enough.

Vancouver Canucks: With no Bishop in goal tonight it is hard to write off the Canucks best players. Dallas has been playing well as of late but for the majority of the season, they have been bleeding chances. There’s no reason to get cute here so stick with Vancouver’s bread and butter plays of Pettersson, Boeser, and Edler. You can add Leivo to the mix as long as he is strapped to Pettersson and Boeser, he remains a good value option.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Pettersson, Boeser, Edler
Cash viable – Leivo (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Pettersson, Boeser

Chicago Blackhawks @ Los Angeles Kings

Odds:  CHI -135, 6.0 o/u

Chicago Blackhawks:  This spot feels like a trap to me with the Kings playing well recently and the Blackhawks traveling time zones. Brandon Saad is back on the top line and has scored 4 points in his last 4. He and Sikura present nice value on the top line with Toews. Patrick Kane should be lower owned while running on the 3rd line making him a good GPP play, I can not reiterate enough how star players are the best low owned plays.

5 star plays –  Kane
4 star plays – Saad
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Perlini, Anisimov, Kane

Los Angeles Kings: The Blackhawks are not good defensively and the Kings quietly over the last 10 games are 4th in high danger chances. This is my favorite big field GPP play, with so many other spots on this slate the Kings could go virtually unowned. Kempe and Toffoli combined are less than $7000 which is going to help you pay up for your studs.

5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Kempe, Toffoli, Doughty
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Kempe, Toffoli

Quick Read:  NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First

DFS NHL Goalies for Today

Jake Allen (BOTH)

Robin Lehner (BOTH)

Sergei Bobrovsky (GPP)

 

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I’m itching to talk NHL in our coaching room today, with the rest of our coaches.  Join us as we begin to see DFS NHL really open up as people leave for the greener pastures of new sports!  Unlock all our tools for any sport you play today…

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