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DFS Army Full Count – MLB Game Breakdown Advice Strategy and Picks for Fanduel and Draftkings March 31

Welcome to the DFS Army MLB Game Break!!  You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process.  I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching.  But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic concepts from contest selection to lineup construction across all our main sports.  If you are looking for it, we cover it!  Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.

MLB DFS 101 – Everything Starts with a Consistent Process

A consistent process that works will help you complete your research in a timely fashion.  Consistent processes also give you confidence to ride through the rough times a volatile sport like MLB will throw your direction.  I have a simple process where I start with good pitchers, bad pitchers, and stackable offenses using the strong bats within.  I explain in three quick steps…

Identifying Quality MLB Pitching

I will use a combination of Vegas odds, KScore (definition inside DFS Army), and DFSA Grade (also inside DFS Army) to find the best combination of all three at the cheapest price.  I will find a great pitcher showing strength in all areas, and I will try to find a cheaper pitcher that doesn’t sacrifice too much in any of these categories.  Some days I can find cheaper pitching.  Other days, I’m paying all the way up.  Every slate is a fingerprint, and we live with what the slate offers rather than force plays in just because we like them.

MAR 31 REPORT – Today, we have a harder slate for cheap pitching.  Nothing really strong stands out.  So, looks like we are largely paying up, unless you want to take on some serious risk.  Patrick Corbin has the best overall blend of Vegas, KScore, and DFSA grade and will be hard to beat.  I don’t necessarily like paying more for Carrasco and getting an underdog and lower KScore in return.  That doesn’t make sense unless it’s buying a Maserati over a Corvette and cruising for chicks.  Where JA Happ leaves you in KScore, he makes up for in Vegas odds, and he brings a little savings on FD but flips coins on DK.  I’d lean FD with him.  Jon Gray isn’t a terrible option for savings if you need the 2k on FD.  The savings is fairly insignificant on DK where it looks like we are really going to need to gamble at SP2 today.  I chose Trent Thronton on paper, and I’m not intimidated by the DET offense.  But, he’s not super strong and his DFSA grade almost scared me back into bed this morning.  I’ve never rostered a pitcher this low…..in fact, I usually stack against them, and I might take a couple DET stacks based on previous success using the method.

Attacking Bad Pitching with Team Offenses

When sorted properly, our DFSA Research Station is a gold mine of statistics and indicators.  Look at all that green circled!  These pitchers carry poor DFSA Grades, poor SIERAs, WHIPs, and even WScores (another VIP only metric created to indicate a pitcher in trouble).  To access those specialty stats, you just have to become a member and ask our coaches inside our teaching rooms.

MAR 31 REPORT – Moore, Giolito, TWilliams stand out most to me today as pitchers we want to attack.  Dylan Bundy can be good, but he can be also really bad.  I might fade Yankees though due to popularity….I’ll likely need to check BVP and pitch profiles.  Jorge Lopez could make the list, but CWS doesn’t get me excited in colder weather and outdoors in KC.  And, I’d really like to also attack Thornton, but it’s DET…..and that’s going to be hard to trust, too.

How To Find MLB Hitters – WScore

There are lots of factors used in targeting hitters.  I will periodically change this up, but for awhile, we will use WScore from the DFS Army Research Station.  WScore uses the pitcher’s woba and iso against per handedness of the batter versus the woba and iso for the hitter.  This baseline stat gives us an indicator of who reaches base with some power (woba) and adds in some extra juice in the power category (iso) to target hitters more inclined to do damage facing pitchers more inclined to allow damage.  Sort of “strength on weakness,” if you will.  Higher is better, and over 600 is going to be elite.  Here is a quick image of the top plays on the slate.  Below, we start talking games and specific players…

BAL Orioles @ NYY Yankees

Odds:  NYY -345, 8.5 o/u

Sundays can be funny through the year, so bear with me.  I don’t personally play them a lot.  Shorter rest, lots of older veterans get days off leading to shuffling of lineups and lots of value springing open near lock sometimes.  You have to check lineups for confirmations after reading reports like these!

That said, the Yankees should handle this one ok.  I’m not interesting in anything Baltimore today.  The Yankees, however, have loads of bats right now.  The projected 2-6 hitters for NYY all profile excellently against Bundy’s pitch arsenal, and both Gardner and Sanchez have over .400 OBPs in their short samples, Sanchez is over 1.000 OPS, too, with a bomb.

BAL 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Stacking against a -300 is always viable in my book…..however, with who?

NYY 5 Star Plays – Judge, Voit, Stanton
4 Star Plays – Andujar, Sanchez, Gardner, Bird, Torres
Cash viable – hard to call anything cash viable on such short 2019 data….historically, I’d lean towards none being truly “safe enough for cash,” but I’d still use a couple in cash if that makes any sense.
GPP note – Nothing terribly sneaky when it comes to Yankees.

DET Tigers @ TOR Blue Jays

Odds:  TOR -135, 9 o/u

The 9 total from Vegas intrigues me being neither of these teams has really done a lot offensively yet.  It must be an indicator of bad pitching because we only have two games of 9 on the slate.  We need to pay some attention here, but where?  DET would be a pure hunch we were playing, and no DET batter registers on the WScore metrics I’m watching.  TOR has largely been rather disappointing, and I have a feeling we have a whole year of that ahead of us outside of a few unpredictable outbursts.  TOR 3-5 make some sense, and Pillar profiles well.  However, the 1-2 are so cheap, I’d be looking there for a little possible value, too.

DET 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Contrarian to go against the low rating of Thornton’s DFSA grade.

TOR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Hernandez, Smoak, Grichuk
Cash viable – Jansen, Drury, Pillar?  They are all just so cheap.  I’d focus on the top, but Pillar profiles well…he just might fall an AB short.
GPP note – Worthy of a stack for sure.  2346 might work well, but it likely disappoints.

HOU Astros @ TBR Rays

Odds:  HOU -115, 8 o/u

Houston is going to be a strong team, and we thought the Rays might fold to them, but that hasn’t been the case.  But, again, the 8 o/u suggests I don’t need to focus much here in anticipation of some scoring explosion.  Yonny Chirinos is a small sample pitcher that does appear to have some good things going for him.  I can avoid really focusing on HOU bats for another, weaker spot in the future.  I won’t be focused on the Rays much at all this year, but it is worth noting they have a couple guys streaking…..Tommy Pham has reached base safely in 35 consecutive games, making him the 3rd longest streak in franchise history……and he’s only been in Tampa for 42 games.  You want cash safe?  That’s pretty much it.  Upside is the question, not anti-zero.  Someone else has a 20ish game hit streak, too, dating back to last year.  I heard both on MLB Tonight last night and didn’t write them down.

HOU 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none

TBR 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – Pham
GPP note – none

Here at DFS Army, we win……and we win a lot.  From smaller budgets and cash games to bigger whales swinging for the 6-figure fences, we’ve guided every type and every experience level for going on 4 seasons now.  Our members rave about the responsiveness and interaction between coaches and players, and we actually form friendships that span sports.  There is no community more invested in your success, nor a community that takes greater pride in your wins and sweats as we watch and root for you into the wee hours of mornings.  Don’t believe me?  See our Wall of Wins and just scroll through page after page and sport after sport…

PIT Pirates @ CIN Reds

Odds:  CIN -135, 8.5 o/u

Into the Smallpark we go, but will we be rewarded?  Both pitchers carry lower DFSA grades and neither have a lot of good qualities going for them in DFS.  However, neither give up a ton of hard contact, either, and their HR/9 numbers are on the low side leaving me wanting pieces of other games over this one.  I might dip in here for a bat or two, but I’m not focused here at all.  (I did just check BVP vs TWilliams and on the small samples the Reds have, 7 of them carry over 1.000 OPS numbers, and three (Schebler, Puig, Dietrich) have bombs…Schebler is leading off!)

PIT 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Marte
Cash viable – none
GPP note – This game can erupt unpredictably, but I won’t be focused on this side of it.

CIN 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Votto, Schebler, Puig, Kemp
Cash viable – Votto
GPP note – cheap and sneaky….just how I like it.  But, I’m not going crazy with stacks here.

COL Rockies @ MIA Marlins

Odds:  COL -150, 7.5 o/u

Colorado on the road is something we preach, but it hasn’t been too fruitful yet.  And, it won’t be a lot of the time.  But, when it is, you’ll be amazed at how low-owned some of the collective stacks are.  Today, however, we do get a little better matchup vs Sandy Alcantara.  In only 167 batters faced (small sample warning), he has posted a 5.42 SIERA (ERA indicator), and he has allowed a lot of hard contact (35.6%).  These are green lights for a Colorado offense.  I won’t talk much about Marlins because we aren’t stacking them against Jon Gray, and only Curtis Granderson figures to get consistent attention from me until a lot changes down on South Beach.

COL 5 Star Plays – Arenado, Story
4 Star Plays – Dahl, Blackmon
Cash viable – usually Blackmon
GPP note – Numbers don’t profile like the initial paper matchup, but I’ll still have stacks in gpps.

MIA 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none

NYM Mets @ WAS Nationals

Odds:  WAS -140, 7.5 o/u

These staffs are loaded with pitching, so it’s hard to get excited about bats here.  The 7.5 o/u suggests we look elsewhere, too.  There really isn’t a lot more to say other than the Mets have been interesting this opening series and better than I anticipated.  As numbers populate, we’ll dig deeper in the coming days.  Both pitchers carry solid DFSA Grades, and Corbin is the lead on the Fanduel slate.

NYM 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none

WAS 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – none

Starting Lineups for every game!  And, complete with xWOBA and DFSA Grades.  You can build your lineup strictly from our lineups tool and find quick success but watching the greens and reds line up.  Many more tools are being released through the day, and again, we have coaches at the ready to answer questions and guide you through the building process today….

STL Cardinals @ MIL Brewers

Odds:  MIL -120, 8.5 o/u

We’ve seen some offense here to start the year, and this Milwaukee lineup is no joke almost top to bottom (Arcia doesn’t contribute a lot).  Michael Wacha can be one of the best when healthy, so I’d temper MIL expectations today.  The Cardinals have nothing to fear in Corbin Burnes.  We should focus on the Cardinals side here, but there are some hot MIL bats ready to rock in gpps………..but Christian Yelich is as cash safe as they come right now after homering in each of the first three games and against some pretty good pitchers, too.

STL 5 Star Plays – Goldschmidt
4 Star Plays – DeJong, Carpenter, Martinez (if starting)
Cash viable – Goldschmidt
GPP note – none

MIL 5 Star Plays – Yelich
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – Yelich
GPP note – none

CLE Indians @ MIN Twins

Odds:  CLE -115, 7 o/u

More cold weather up north in the stadium only fools didn’t put a roof on.  I mean, if you open a season in the cold with dreams of making deep postseason runs someday, what the hell do you think you’ll be hosting a World Series in?  Tropical nights?  More like blizzards, you dumbshits.  Pony up and put a roof on that thing.  Even I’m smarter than that.

Diatribe aside, the bomb Jose Ramirez hit was no joke up there yesterday and was the hardest hit ball at 121-ish exit velo in, I think, either ballpark or Indians history……that’s pretty impressive for near freezing weather.  We get more of the same, but don’t expect long balls.  Expect more of the 2-1 nature of games.  Carrasco is a strong play here, and he keeps me off MIN bats, except Nelson Cruz who is 7/22 with 2 doubles and 2 bombs off Carrasco.  For BVP lovers, Brad Miller also knocks Pineda around pretty good in his history.  7/23 with 2 doubles, 2 triples, and a long ball for a 1.056 OPS in what is still a pretty small sample size, honestly.

CLE 5 Star Plays – Ramirez, Santana
4 Star Plays – Miller
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Miller’s BVP won’t be owned…..however, the 7 total says stay far away from this one outside of a few one-off plays.

MIN 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP note – Cruz for the BVP alone.

CWS White Sox @ KCR Royals

Odds:  KCR -120, 9 o/u

Let’s put a wrap on the Sunday slate with an awesome cold weather, fun game I know we are all just dying to watch.  This game’s tv ratings make soap operas and C-SPAN look like must-see-tv.  But, oddly enough, both pitchers here carry pretty low DFSA grades and demand some of our attention for bats.  And, people are going to sleep on the Royals this year and give us plenty of opportunity to roster a Merrifield/Mondesi combo for floors in gpps without thinking about ownership.  Hopefully, the masses stay away and keep their prices somewhat depressed, too.  A gpp wrap with Billy Hamilton is never out of the question, but won’t stand to pay off often, as Billy’s OBP looks like a standard restaurant gratuity on parties over 6…..at 0.180, or 18%!

CWS 5 Star Plays – none
4 Star Plays – Palka, Alonso, Abreu
Cash viable – Abreu often times
GPP note – That above stack has chances.  Abreu seems to hit balls into the fountains at Kaufmann quite often.  But, it’s cold today…balls won’t fly typically.

KCR 5 Star Plays – Merrifield
4 Star Plays – Mondesi, O’Hearn
Cash viable – Merrifield
GPP note – O’Hearn has solid pop and has touched Giolito up before…..with Merrifield, Mondesi on in front of him, you might have something.

Favorite MLB DFS Stacks for Tonight…

Those specific combos are inside our coaching channels for VIPs.  However, I will drop a sneaky gpp stack on you.  Our coaching picks page will be locked and loaded with many other great stacks for both gpps and safer contests to vault your scores over the competition.  There has never been a better time to #RaiseYourEdge and join our army hat logos on the tops of the leaderboards!

GPP Sleeper stack = Palka, Alonso, Abreu –  Again, going for the lower owned offenses that can do damage.  I could also be persuaded into the Merrifield, Mondesi, O’Hearn stack as well……for the same reasons.  Both are interesting today.

Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research.  I will be bouncing in and out of our MLB coaching rooms all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions.  I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process a few times a week, and with a little more time, VIP strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too.  All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.

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I hope to see you inside soon.  Have a blessed and profitable day.