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BigMarley3’s UFC London DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC on ESPN+5                                                          Location – London, England

 

Thanks for purchasing my UFC Fight Night 147 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.

 

This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in London on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it a couple weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

 

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Nad Narimani $8,900 vs Mike Grundy $7,300

Nad Narimani

Age: 31

Height: 5’8

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: Team Alpha Male

From: England

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 63

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: -145

 

Nad Narimani is a good fighter. He is more well-rounded than Grundy and will be trying to keep this fight on the feet. He has a good jab. He will throw a double jab, straight-right hand. He has a nice check left hook, and hard right hook. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. He throws leg kicks, and body kicks. He will throw a front snap kick to the body, and he is always trying to move in and out of range and be a moving target. He does a good job of using check left hooks after defending takedown attempts. He can struggle to find his range at times. He will open up with jump knees, or jumping round house kicks, and uses those techniques to close the distance. He really doesn’t have great striking. He can enter striking range with his chin high when he kicks, at times and he tends to look uncomfortable if pressured. He needs to be very careful, use movement, try to defend takedowns, land hard hooks off the break and keep it standing. Narimani doesn’t have big power, and only has 2 TKOs in his career. He has a strong chin, and is a tough guy, never being finished.

Narimani is a strong wrestler, and always looking for an opening to take it to the ground. He does a great job of catching kicks and getting the fight to the mat. He also has good timing on double legs. He has good control on top, and when his opponent gets up he does a great job of staying attached to his opponent and grinding on them. He does a good job of finding the back where he has good control. He was shucked off by Taha, but he does a good job of digging a strong under hook and standing up from under opponents. He is very physically strong in the clinch. He gets double under hooks and slows down the fight against the cage. He has a good rear naked choke. He has four career submissions. He has never been submitted himself. He has great cardio. He can be taken down himself, in earlier fights like vs Alex Enlund. He also allowed Enlund to land some nice ground & pound and move to dominant positions like the mount and back. He can’t get backed up to the fence in this fight & needs to stay off his back. He knows that Grundy only wants to do one thing, and if he keeps it on the feet he has a clear advantage.

 

Mike Grundy

Age: 32

Height: 5’8

Weight: 145

Reach: N/A

Gym: Team Kaobon Liverpool

From: England

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W8

Betting Odds: +125

 

We have a battle of two home town guys here as Nad Narimani takes on Mike Grundy. Mike Grundy will finally be making his UFC debut, after long being on the cusp. He will get to share the card with the fighter who has been most vocal about getting him into the company, Darren Till. Till has been pining for Grundy to get his chance for some time now, and he’s finally getting it. Narimani is no slouch. He is 2-0 in the UFC & former Cage Warriors champion. Both of these fighters are grinders. Mike Grundy is a former wrestling bronze medalist at the Commonwealth games & has a very strong wrestling base. He does have good movement, forward pressure, fakes & feints and sets his takedowns up well.  He has decent jabs. He will throw uppercuts directly into takedowns. He will throw overhand & straight-right hands. He has nice head kicks, but all his strikes are to set up takedowns. He will throw left hooks to the body directly into doubles. He will throw straight punches to close the distance. He isn’t sloppy though and gets inside well. I have really barely seen him take any shots on the feet. He has never been finished with strikes & has 0 KO/TKOs.

Grundy is a grinder, and really doesn’t look to strike at all. He has one thing on his mind in the cage & that’s get top position. He has super explosive blast doubles, single legs & takes fighters off their feet with ease. He is a jacked & very athletic for the division. He does a great job of elevating his opponents on the doubles & getting straight into side control. From there he is very dangerous. He will work for the crucifix position to land short elbows and punches. He will attack with front chokes, anaconda’s and darce’s. He is good at floating & advancing position as fighters try to scramble. He has a great guillotine from mount. He has good arm triangles, and kimuras as well. He has a great squeeze and when he gets the arm under the chin it’s usually over. He has put multiple opponents to sleep. He will land ground & pound from the wrestling ride position on the back. He does a great job of posturing up in the guard & landing heavy shots. When he takes opponents down, they usually don’t get up. He has good submission defense & does a good job of passing the legs to side control when opponents go for triangles. He has great mat returns & will suplex opponents and throw them around. He has good cardio & can wrestle all day. He hasn’t fought since November 2017, and I wasn’t able to watch his most recent fight. I would think he is probably working hard on his striking with Darren Till, and will come in improved. He is still a submission specialist, and that’s what he will lean on. He has 8 submissions in his career, and in his one loss he was triangle choked by UFC veteran Damian Stasiak. It’s obvious what Grundy wants to do here. He is going to try to get inside, use his wrestling, and put Narimani on his back. If he can get him down, he has good BJJ, world class wrestling and will have the advantage.

 

I think the line is about right on this one. Grundy is a pure wrestler and his only path to victory here is the wrestling and submission game he has. He has a solid wrestling game and he is good at locking up submissions from his dominant top game. Narimani has 100% takedown defense so far in his 2 UFC fights and I have been impressed with his overall game. He has solid wrestling himself, so he may be able to stuff takedowns here or even land his own. If he can keep this fight on the feet, then I expect him to dominate and probably pick up a knockout win if Grundy isn’t successful early with his takedowns.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is Narimani. We have a lot of line value on Grundy right now, and I do like him as well, but I expect him to be pretty popular and I see Narimani going under owned. I will have exposure to both sides of this fight but if I was just making 3-5 lineups I would probably only use Narimani. I don’t love this fight for cash games, but it is one of the better GPP fights to target IMO. If Grundy wins, it will be from his wrestling and takedowns. If Nad wins, I think it will be because he knocks Grundy out. Either way I think the winner scores well and has a good chance of being on the optimal lineups.

Winner – Nad Narimani via 3rd round (T)KO

 

Molly McCann $8,500 vs Priscilla Cachoeira $7,700

Molly McCann

Age: 28

Height: 5’6

Weight: 125

Reach: 62”

Gym: Next Generation MMA LP

From: United Kingdom

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix:

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -200

 

Molly McCann is the former Cage Warriors World Champion & will be looking to get her first UFC win here. She is very popular in England & will be the crowd favorite. McCann prefers to strike. I would say that she is more technical striker but is slower with a power disadvantage.  She definitely throws a larger variety of shots. She has a decent jab, and good straight-right hand. She will throw more feints and sets her shots up better than Cachoeira. She has good left hook, straight-right hand combinations. She will throw a jab, overhand right, left hook. She likes throwing rear uppercut left hooks. She will throw fade away left hooks. She attacks the body with straight punches & hooks. She walks opponents down, keeps heavy pressure on opponents & unloads with longer punching combinations when she’s against the cage. She is hittable herself & not a great athlete. When she wings her overhand or hook, she cannot move her head and get caught with straight counter punches. She will fake the lead hand and come back with straight-right hands.  She will throw front kicks to the body to close the distance. She will mix in elbows and knees to the body. She can mix in some spinning attacks like spinning back kicks and spinning back fists. She is brash, confident and likes to talk in her fights and try to goad her opponents into a brawl. She has ok head movement at times on the outside, but when she throws she keeps her head right on the center line. She does a decent job of cutting off the cage and not chasing while staying far enough away to deny the clinch attempts. She has ok power in both hands and can hurt you with her punches. I don’t know believe she has enough power to stop Cachoeira. She has 4 KO/TKO’s, and is durable, never being finished.

McCann is a poor grappler and was dominated in her last match on the ground. She has questionable takedown defense, but she does a good job of not accepting position and trying to get up using a deep half sweep and overall just not accepting being on her back. She does a good job of striking and making you pay for takedown attempts when she can. She will land hard knees and elbows, and even will go with flying knees if you attack with the single leg. Off her back she doesn’t have a great get up game or Jiu-Jitsu knowledge. She will give her back to try to stand up. If she can get back to her feet, she is good at immediately attacking with punching combinations not letting opponents breathe. I don’t see this fight going to the ground & it will be contested on the feet. For McCann, she needs to go forward and be technical here. She needs to keep her jab & front kicks out there to try to slow the forward movement of Cachoeira. She has to feint to freeze her, attack the body & try to tire her out. She has better cardio than Priscila. If she can get her tired, moving backwards, she could potentially overwhelm her with pressure & pace. She is going to be at home, so if this fight is a close decision, expect McCann to win. McCann can’t get drawn into a brawl with Cachoeira, because I feel Cachoeira is the better athlete who is faster & hits harder. If she stays technical, uses her skills on the feet, that’s her path to victory.

 

Priscila Cachoeira

Age: 30

Height: 5’7

Weight: 125

Reach: 65”

Gym: Paraná Vale Tudo

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 year 1 Month

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +170

 

This is a battle of two fighters who had pretty disastrous UFC debuts. Priscila Cachoeira’s first UFC fight will always be infamous for being the Mario Yamasaki “let her be a warrior fight”. She was severally outmatched facing the now current champion Valentina Shevchenko & took a brutal beating, so bad Mario Yamasaki has never refed in the UFC again. Cachoeira apparently blew her knee out early in that fight. She will be taking on Molly McCann who was choked out unconscious as a big favorite in her UFC debut. She is fighting again in her home country and will be looking to redeem herself here. This will be Cachoeira’s first fight out of Brazil. Priscila Cachoeira is a fighter with a nice jab & decent one-two. She will throw hard, heavy hooks & uppercut combinations. When she gets opponents backed against the cage, she will pour on the pressure & throw long punching combinations. She will attack the body with straight-right hands. She will throw straight-right, left hooks. She throws a lot of overhand rights. She will throw front kicks to the body & head. She will throw head kicks.  She throws very hard and has no fear of being hit. She is very wild & has little to no defense. She holds her lands low & has gotten a bit better at moving her head, but still holds her chin very high. She is extremely tough & will plant her feet & go to war. She doesn’t back off when she gets hit and prefers to just throw until one woman falls. She has 4 KO/TKO’s and is very durable never being finished with strikes.

Cachoeira is not a good grappler. She won’t go for takedowns much at all or try to get in the clinch. I don’t expect that to change here. She has very bad takedown defense & has very little takedown defense. On her back she seems lost. She doesn’t control posture well & allows opponents to posture up & land brutal elbows. She will take big shots & not give up and has an unbreakable will. When Valentina Shevchenko was able to pass her guard into side control she got the crucifix & landed big elbows. She eventually was able to sink in a rear naked choke. McCann is a striker as well, so I don’t imagine that will be a huge issue this fight. She has no submissions and has one submission loss. Cachoeira has questionable cardio, but it looks like she catches second winds. Cachoeira only fights one way, going forward and throwing bombs. She needs to go forward, eat shots to give her own, walk down McCann & try to land big shots that put her out.

 

I am really not sure what to expect from this fight. Both fighters had terrible UFC debuts and didn’t show us anything. So, I am just basing this off what I have seen from them on the regional scene and I think with this fight being in London, I have to favor McCann since she will have the home country advantage. I expect this fight to mostly take place on the feet and I see McCann being the fighter pushing forward and controlling the pace of the fight. I think if this fight goes all 3 rounds then it will be hard for Cachoeira to steal a decision over in London.

On DraftKings, I like the line value we have on McCann, so she is my preferred play of the two. However, I may just full fade this fight and hope it is a boring decision. I don’t really feel comfortable investing in either of these ladies, so I would need more than 10 lineups before I even thought about throwing them in a GPP. If anything, I think McCann is a decent cash game play because of the value and this fight likely going 3-rounds. If you are making 10 or less lineups, then I think I would just forget about this fight in GPPs but if I do roster either of them it would be the favorite.

Winner – Molly McCann via Unanimous Decision

 

Dan Ige $8,200 vs Danny Henry $8,000

Dan Ige

Age: 27

Height: 5’7

Weight: 145

Reach: 71”

Gym: Xtreme Couture

From: Hawaii

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: 72

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: -145

 

Dan Ige has looked impressive so far in his UFC tenure. He had a war with Julio Arce, and then two nice victories. He is a tough scrappy Hawaiian grinder. He has good, clean boxing. He has a nice jab and very good straight punching combinations. He will throw a left hook to the body to a left or right hook. He will throw a nice, long uppercut. He has good hand speed. He likes to make you move backwards and keep the pressure. He does a good job of cutting off the cage and not just chasing. He has nice, short elbows. He is tough and very aggressive. He does a good job of faking takedown attempts and coming up with uppercuts. He blitzed Mike Santiago very quickly and earned a dominant TKO victory in less than a minute. He has 2 KO/TKO’s both with ground & pound. He has a good chin, and the ability to eat punishment and push forward. He has never been finished in his career.

Ige is a great grappler, and a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is also a former college wrestler. He has good double legs, and good body clinch takedowns. On top he has crushing pressure. He moves quickly to the mount and will take the back and land brutal ground & pound. He does a great job of flattening opponents out & has great control. He has a nice rear naked choke, and I feel he will have a major advantage if he can get on top of Henry. He has questionable takedown defense himself when he gets tired and can get taken down. He was able to use an under hook to immediately change position when taken down by Jordan Griffin. He got on top & immediately took the back. He does have a decent bottom game. He has nasty kimura counters to takedown attempts and will attack with armbars & triangles. He has good cardio and can push for 3 rounds. He has finished 7 of his 10 wins. He has 4 submissions & has never been submitted. Ige needs to use his hands to close the distance, get the takedown, and then work to get a dominant position where he can find a finish. I see him trying to overwhelm Henry early because Henry starts slow. I feel he will be the much faster fighter but should look to put Henry on his back. He has to avoid the guillotine, but I think if he can get to top position he can do damage. He is a beast in round 1 and I could see him taking Henry down & being the first person to finish him by submission or TKO.

 

Danny Henry

Age: 30

Height: 6’0

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: Higher Level Martial Arts

From: Scotland

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 58

Last Fought: 1 Year

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W5

Betting Odds: +125

 

Danny Henry is 2-0 in the UFC but hasn’t fought in a year. I am not sure why he took that layoff, but his last match, he had a quick finish of hot prospect Hakeem Dawodu. Henry is a very tall FW & tries to fight long. He throws a lot of leg kicks & straight-right hands. He will throw nasty body kicks & very nice step in knees to the body & head. He has nice front kicks up the middle. He does a great job of dropping his straight-right hand in & is very accurate. When he lands it, he has big power. He will throw front elbows in close range. He will land nice counter left hooks & closes the distance with nice hooks. He has nice uppercuts in close range. When he hurts opponents, he will swarm with shots for the finish. He doesn’t throw in combination & is very slow, due to that fighters are able to walk him down & land hard shots over the top. He has an amazing chin & is able to weather a storm & then turn on the pressure. He was able to survive getting dropped & almost finished by Daniel Teymur to come back & get the victory. He has power with 5 KO/TKOs in his career. He has never been finished in his career.

Henry has alright grappling, but I wouldn’t say it’s the best. His wrestling is not very good in my opinion, but his length makes him dangerous in the clinch. He has nice uppercuts & short shots to the body. He will throw solid knees. He will go for takedowns against the cage. He does a good job of attacking with doubles. He will get in on a body locks & does a good job of getting on the back from standing. He has good control from the back, gets the body triangle and will look for RNC’s. He will transition to the mount & lands nice G&P. He isn’t overwhelming on top and relies more on control. He doesn’t have great takedown defense. He stands tall & I don’t think he has a great game off his back. Daniel Teymur was able to take him down & control him on top for a couple minutes. He does have good front chokes & guillotines he will attack with that are dangerous, but if you can safely put him on his back I haven’t seen much. He was able to stun Hakeem Dawodu & get a standing guillotine in less than one minute in his last match. He has 5 submissions & has never been subbed. Henry has great cardio & composure. Even when things aren’t going his way he stays calm and doesn’t panic. I think Danny Henry has to worry about winning the long-term battle. He has to be ready to survive a storm & come back. He should look to drop his straight-right hand in, while looking for chokes as Ige tries takedowns. He needs to try to time & land a big shot as Ige enters like a knee or uppercut. Ige has slowed down before in previous fights & if Henry could extend him he could have the cardio advantage.

 

This is a close fight and probably my first dog or pass fight on the card on the betting line. Ige has solid wrestling and he lands over 3 takedowns per 15-minutes. His striking is ok, but I expect him to be at a slight disadvantage on the feet. I do think he will need to use his wrestling in this matchup and I think he can win a decision with it if he can’t find a submission. Henry is 5 inches taller, strikes at a higher pace, and is more accurate, so I expect him to be able to win this fight on the feet. Maybe not a knockout, but at least help him win a decision. He also has 100% takedown defense so far in his 2 UFC fights. However, his two UFC fights were against strikers and Ige is going to have much better wrestling than those guys. I am going to lean with the favorite here because of his wrestling, but as I said earlier, this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line.

This is our mid-range fight of the week and that is what makes it interesting for me. I think both guys have a good chance at 10x+. I’ve changed my stance throughout the week and now I think my preferred play is Ige. He should be the guy looking for takedowns and that is what I like about him. I will have exposure to both guys, but I will have more Ige. A few of my favorite Ige lineups I will just duplicate and use Henry instead. This is just an easy fight to land on with their salaries and I have had a hard time avoiding it in my rough draft builds. I think you could make a case for either side in cash games as well with their prices, but I do prefer this fight more for GPPs since it is hard to trust either side in cash. If I was making 10 lineups I would guess I have 2-4 Ige and 1-3 Henry. If you want to go higher on Henry, then I have no problem with that and wouldn’t try to talk you out of it. I also think this could be a close fight and if it is then the winner might not score high so if you want to just fade this fight that is fine as well.

Winner – Dan Ige via Split Decision

 

Tom Breese $8,400 vs Ian Heinisch $7,800

Tom Breese

Age: 27

Height: 6’3

Weight: 185

Reach: 73.5”

Gym: Ultimate Training Centre

From: United Kingdom

UFC Record: 4-1

Fight Matrix: 23

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -140

 

This is a great fight. Tom Breese is a very skilled fighter who got a quick KO victory in his 185 lb debut. He was killing himself to make 170 lbs, and I expect better performances at 185. He will be taking on Ian Heinisch who is taking this fight on short notice replacing Cesar Ferreria. Ian was able to defeat Ferreira on less than two weeks’ notice in his UFC debut. Another win here would be very impressive & the winner will emerge as a future contender. Tom Breese is a very tall, long fighter, who has been putting a lot of priority on boxing, and fighting long. He has a long stance & likes to pump out his jab, and straight left hand. He will feint & fake while walking opponents down to keep them on the back foot. His straight left hand is very accurate & he controls distance using it well. He has nasty front kicks to the body. He will throw a jab, left hook combination. He will throw a nasty right hook, straight left-hand combination. He will throw an uppercut, right hook combo. He has nice inside outside leg kicks. He will throw a straight left hand, jab, body kick combination. He will throw front & round kicks to the head. He will throw Superman punches. He has good head movement & lateral footwork. He uses his length well to walk opponents into his shots & pot shot them over three rounds. He has very good hand speed & keeps the volume high. He does stand heavy on his lead leg & it’s there to be leg kicked. Breese has 4 KO/TKOs & has only lost one career fight via split decision.

Breese is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and has a good ground game. He isn’t an offensive wrestler, and his wrestling defense is a bit questionable. He can be bullied a bit in the clinch & doesn’t have great technique. He doesn’t dig under hooks & will just try to stall out the position by defending with his length. Nakamura was able to take him down in the clinch multiple times. He did look improved defending clinch takedowns & digging under hooks more against Sean Strickland. Off his back he is still very good. He will attack with leg locks & is an elite leg kick guy in MMA. He has very good triangles from full guard & Heinisch will have to mind his P’s & Q’s if he takes top position. He has used it several times to sweep to top position. Once he gets on top he is very good. He distributes his weight well & his length makes him heavy on top. He will land nice elbows from half guard. He will move to side control & attack with the crucifix and inverted triangles. He has competed in EBI & is a legit black belt. Breese has 6 career submissions. I expect him to want to try to keep this fight standing. I think if he gets clipped a few times he may go for takedowns, but I think his first game plan will be to box. If he gets taken down I see him trying to use the leg lock to sweep. We have seen Heinisch get his back taken recently on DWCS. I think Breese will be moving, trying to accentuate his reach, keep his one-two out there, his front kicks to the body, round kicks to the head and pick apart Heinisch from the outside. Breese got a knock out in his last match & if Heinisch gets too aggressive he could get clipped & put down. Heinisch was also submitted in his one career loss.

 

Ian Heinisch

Age: 30

Height: 5’11

Weight: 185

Reach: 71”

Gym: Factory X Muay Thai

From: Colorado

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 38

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +120

 

Ian Heinisch is looking to make it two wins in a row over two very respectable names & announce himself as a player in the division. Heinisch has been through the struggle in life, battling back from true adversity & he will never fold in the cage. He is a powerhouse & this fight really comes down to the physicality of Heinisch against the technicality of Breese. Heinisch is an explosive finisher who goes in there to take your head off. He is very athletic & puts the pressure on right away. He is constantly feinting the takedown & trying to come over the top with hooks & overhands. He has nice round & front kicks to the body. He can throw the kicks without setting them up and be hit clean or taken down off them. He does a great job of closing the distance and throwing a left hook into a double leg or faking a double leg and coming over the top with his right hand. He has massive power, and one shot can put fighters completely unconscious. He has 4 career KO/TKOs. He has never been finished by strikes and is a rough and rugged fighter who I think you would have to put out to stop him.

Heinisch is a great wrestler. He is very physically strong & wears fighters out in extended grappling situations. He is always attacking & aggressive with his Jiu-Jitsu. He is a former Division ll college wrestler, and he has explosive double leg shots. He does a great job of setting his shots up with punches. He will stalk opponents to the cage, close the distance and shoot double and single leg shots. When he takes fighters down, he works quickly and likes to get to half guard where he will rain down heavy elbows. He can put fighters’ unconscious with elbows and is a scary individual in top position. He does a great job of putting his opponents head against the cage & throwing G&P where it’s hard to throw up submissions. It is imperative he does that if/when he gets Breese down. He has good chokes and will attack with guillotines and front chokes. He jumped on a guillotine against Cesar Ferreira, and almost finished. He also almost finished an armbar at the end of round 1. When he was taken down he was able to attack with submissions & eventually scramble to his feet. He wore Ferreira out and took over down the stretch in the fight. He did get his back taken against Justin Sumter and was submitted by Maluko Perez. He has 2 submissions & one submission loss. Heinisch is still a bit raw to me but has a ton of potential. The more octagon time he accumulates, the better he will start looking. Heinisch is going to have to put on the pressure get inside & make this an ugly brawl. If he can make this more of a grappling match against the cage, attacking with knees to the body & head and elbows and punches off the break I think he will tire Breese out. If this fight is up for grabs in the final minute I have more faith Heinisch will go, take it. Pressure, pace and just roughing up & outworking Breese is his path to victory.

 

This is a good matchup. I think this is a close fight, but I do give the edge to Breese. Especially with this being in his home country. I think Heinisch will need a finish here to get the win because if it is a close fight I’d image the judges give it to the guy from England. I expect this to be a close fight anywhere it goes but I think Breese is the more technical striker, so I think he gets the better of Heinisch on the feet. Both guys are decent on the ground, but I think Heinisch’s ground and pound would be his best chance of getting a finish. He only has 14% takedown accuracy though, so I am not sure he can get it there. I am going to lean with Breese to win a decision here, but it is not a confident one.

On DraftKings, I don’t love this fight for either side. I think both sides are in play, but I would rather fade it instead of taking multiple shots on both sides. I think if the winner can get a finish then they have a chance at the optimal lineup. If they don’t finish, then we might not even get 10x. My preferred play is Breese but if I was making 5 or less lineups I would just full fade this fight. If you have a strong lean on either side then I would say that you can play them in all formats, I just don’t have a strong lean and I will be hoping this is a close fight that mainly takes place on the feet

Winner – Tom Breese via Split Decision

 

Nicolae Negumereanu $9,000 vs Saparbeg Safarov  $7,200

Nick Negumereanu

Age: 24

Height: 6’1

Weight: 205

Reach: 73.5”

Gym: CSS Dinamo Brasov

From: Romania

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 124

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W9

Betting Odds: -175

 

This is a pretty low-level fight. Nick Negumereanu is making his UFC debut, against the returning Saparbeg Safarov. Saparbeg is 0-2 in the UFC and is fighting for his career here. He was supposed to be facing Gökhan Saki, but Negumereanu is stepping in on short notice. Negumereanu is 9-0 with 9 finishes. He has fought very low-level competition & this is a big step up. Negumereanu is a big 205er, and a strong wrestler. His striking is not good, but he is athletic and goes forward almost recklessly. He holds his hands low, his chin is high, and he is right there to be hit. He throws hard low leg kicks. He has nice front kicks to the body & head. When he gets inside he will throw heavy hooks & overhands. He can eat a shot and return with a heavier one to put you down. He will let go with huge power shots in close range like heavy uppercuts, & elbows. He is right there to be hit clean & if he can’t overwhelm Saparbeg on the feet or take him down, he may be taught a lesson. He has 6 KO/TKO’s and has never seen the third round.

Negumereanu shines in the wrestling department. He is extremely physical & throws fighters around. He will get a tight waist, circle to the back and land nasty slams & suplex’s. He puts fighters down with force & is able to quickly advance position as they get their barring’s again. He has many quick first round finishes due to a slam followed by ground & pound. 5 of his 9 fights have ended in round one. He has great takedown defense & will reverse to top position. He has very good control on top and is looking to do damage. He will throw brutal elbows & punches to the body and head. He has 3 career submissions. His cardio is a bit questionable, and he was having a tough fight with an 11-41 regional scene fighter in 2017, before they quit on the stool. Negumereanu is going to be looking to take this fight to the mat. He is going to want to use his heavy shots & explosiveness to get inside and get the fight to the ground. If he can get in top position he may be able to find the finish. I also feel he should look to throw leg kicks, because it seems that Saparbeg has a problem with his leg.

 

Saparbeg Safarov

Age: 32

Height: 6’1

Weight: 205

Reach: 78”

Gym: Academy MMA

From: Russia

UFC Record: 0-2

Fight Matrix: 111

Last Fought: 1 Year

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +155

 

Saparbeg Safarov has been finished in his first two UFC fights, but he is getting another chance here. He has taken over a year off and looking to jumpstart his career. He is a Dagestani Russian, and tough guy. He has a very similar fighting style to Negumereanu. He has sloppy wide open striking, only to close the distance, and get it to the ground. Saparbeg is a bit more technical. He will throw a jab out there, and hard left hooks. He will close the distance with big hooks & uppercuts. He will try to walk opponents into his overhand right. He will throw fade away left hooks. He will throw overhand right, left hook combinations. He will throw hard kicks to the body. When he threw a body kick against Villante, he grabbed his knee and it seems to be a recurring problem in his career. He is all heart & will continue to come forward throwing bombs regardless. On the feet, I feel over time he will be able to start to land some big shots on Negumereanu. I feel on the feet it just will be a wild brawl. Saparbeg throws wide shots & fighters are able to counter him easily. He also drops his head when he throws punches. Saparbeg has a hell of a chin. He has 6 KO/TKO’s and has been finished one time by TKO.

Saparbeg is a strong grappler. He has good double legs and will crash into the clinch. He has decent low single legs. He is good on top. He does a great job of trapping a wrist and trying to move directly into mount or the back. He will catch kicks into takedowns. He has a strong sprawl & will land hard uppercuts on the break. He will attack with guillotines to defend takedown attempts. It will be interesting to see who will be able to take down who or if at all. He was kimura’d going for a takedown against the cage in his last match. He has two career submissions. I think Safarov needs to be cautious early, try to catch Negumereanu coming in with jabs & overhands. He isn’t the athlete of Negumereanu, but he has more experience facing adversity and in the later rounds.

 

This should be a sloppy slugfest until somebody drops. That is how I see it going. Not only has neither guy ever seen a decision in their professional careers, but they haven’t even been to the 3rd round. I think we see another 1st or 2nd round KO here, likely 1st, and I will just lean with the underdog because he has had UFC experience before and I think it’s closer to a 50/50 fight. I have not been very impressed with either guy and I think this is going to be a wild fight were both guys are throwing heavy punches until one of them goes to sleep.

For some reason, we still don’t have odds for this fight. I am guessing the FDGTD line is going to be very high and that is what makes this a great fight to target. I don’t see this going the distance and I think the winner has a good shot of ending up on the optimal. This is one of my favorite 3 fights on the card to target and I want exposure to both sides. I have switched my pick a few times this week and I am going to go back to Safarov here to get the knockout. But I have zero confidence in that pick and I might end up with close to 50/50 exposure or even higher on Negumereanu. I have no idea what I will do with this fight for DK yet other than be heavily invested to it in GPPs. I do prefer this fight more for GPPs too because both fighters have super low floors. Either way, I expect close to 100 DK points from whoever gets their hand raised.

Winner – Saparbeg Safarov via 1st round (T)KO

 

Joe Duffy $9,100 vs Marc Diakiese $7,100

Joe Duffy

Age: 31

Height: 5’10

Weight: 155

Reach: 73”

Gym: Tristar Gym

From: Ireland

UFC Record: 4-2

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -190

 

This is an intriguing fight. Two fighters who badly need to get back on track. Marc Diakiese has lost 3 consecutive fights after starting 3-0 in the UFC. He is back in England training for this fight, after a few camps at ATT trying to change things up. He is taking on Joe Duffy, who hasn’t fought in over a year. The last time he fought, he was knocked out by James Vick. Joe Duffy is more famous for his win over Conor Mcgregor but is a solid fighter. He is a good, technical boxer, with a great corner with Firas Zahabi & Tristar. Duffy throws a quick and snapping jab from odd angles. He keeps his hands low and uses a shoulder roll tactic and head movement to defend while being able to bring up his punches when you don’t expect them. He has nice left hooks & dangerous uppercuts. He has very nice straight-right hands. When he has opponents against the cage, he is very technical. He will throw hard shots to the body & head.  He has nice overhand rights. He has nasty step in knees to the body. He has super-fast hand speed & I feel the straight shots could give Diakiese issues. He is a taekwondo black belt and has some nice round kicks to the body & head. He will throw spinning kicks to the body & head. He will throw nice lead leg hook & round kicks to the head. When he gets flowing with his striking he is fun to watch. He will let go with longer combinations ending with kicks to the legs, body & head and is blazing fast. He can be caught because he holds his hands low and was finished by James Vick. He has shown good durability & that is his only KO/TKO loss. He has 2 KO/TKO’s himself.

Joe Duffy is a good Jiu-Jitsu player but can be grinded out. He isn’t an offensive wrestler really and was dominated off his back by Dustin Poirier. He is not a great wrestler.  He could not stop the double leg & was taken down at will with them. He does have nice sweeps & is very good in top position. He has heavy elbows from guard. He does have nice leg locks & does a good job of trapping a wrist & getting a triangle in his guard. He was able to drop Mitch Clark very quickly & jump on a rear naked choke. He was taken down early by Reza Madadi, but was able to sweep him, and then defend the takedowns in the later rounds. He was able to almost lock up a late triangle on Dustin Poirier, and almost finished him. He has a lot of submissions & finishes most of his wins. He has 10 submissions and has been submitted twice himself. He has shown good cardio and heart over his career. For Duffy, he is going to want to use his long-range strikes, such as lead leg kicks, leg kicks & front kicks to back Diakiese up. He is going to want to get him backed towards the cage, where he can throw longer punching combinations. Nasrat had a lot of success landing combos when he backed up Diakiese, and Duffy should try to do the same.

 

Marc Diakiese

Age: 26

Height: 5’10

Weight: 155

Reach: 73”

Gym: AVT MMA Leeds

From: England

UFC Record: 3-3

Fight Matrix: 194

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L3

Betting Odds: +165

 

Marc Diakiese is a very explosive athlete with a dynamic striking arsenal. He throws a lot of flashy techniques & has great speed. He will throw jabs to the head & body. He has a very nice straight-right hand. He will throw hard overhand right, left hook combinations. He will throw left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He will switch stances & likes to throw hard hooks to the body. He will throw a hard-left hook to the body to a rear leg body kick. He throws round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw round & front kicks to the body.  He will throw hard head kicks. He will throw jumping round house kicks and spinning back kicks to the body & head. He will throw flying knees. He stands heavy on his lead leg and can get leg kicked. He took a ton of punishment in his last match, and had his face busted up. He has gotten cut in multiple UFC fights, and gets facial damage easy. He fought a fighter out of Tristar gym in Nasrat Haqparast, and Joe Duffy also trains there. He showed heart & was able to survive to the final bell. He is durable never being finished by strikes. He has 6 KO/TKO’s.

Diakiese is a better grappler than striker in my opinion. He is good at catching kicks & bringing the fight to the ground.  He is very physically strong, with explosive power. He can put people up & down very quickly. He will get big slams in the clinch if he can get the right waist. He will get suplex’s from the back, and just manhandle opponents. He even got what was almost a choke slam against Drakkar Klose. He was able to out wrestle Drakkar Klose who is a former college wrestler. On the ground, he will try to stand up in opponent’s guards and land long punches. He will move to half guard & control from there. He isn’t super dangerous on top, but he has good control. He is able to get takedowns, when fights are close or in round 3 when he needs them. He is tough & has solid cardio overall. He does use a lot of explosion to aide him in grappling, so as fights go on, he gets tired and his grappling gets a bit less effective. He was submitted in round 3 by Dan Hooker going for a double leg via guillotine. He has one career submission & been submitted one time. He needs a win in a major way here, 4 losses in a row would most likely lead to a pink slip. I feel that he will come in, in very good shape and I like that he went back to his old gym. At ATT there is a bunch of guys at his weight class in the gym, and I think he definitely will get more personalized training at his gym in England. Diakiese should try to look to snipe Duffy with one shot on the feet, but I actually think he should take him down. If he can get in the clinch, start to slow down the striking of Duffy by tiring him out, he will have a better chance to clip him. If he can get on top, and stays safe on top, he could win a decision that way.

 

This is a talented fight and one of my favorites on the card. Both guys are talented prospects, but they are both coming off losses. Diakiese has actually lost 3 straight, so I would imagine he gets cut with another loss here. This fight is in his home country though and he is 10-0 in England and 1-0 in London. I think he is the more powerful striker and he has the better wrestling. However, I think Duffy will have the better boxing and is more dangerous with his submissions. I think this is much closer to a 50/50 fight as well and I think with Marc being the home country guy, I would favor him to win a split decision type performance because he will have the crowd behind him. I think this will be a very close fight and it could go either way, but I am going to take the underdog here to win by landing the harder shots on the feet and mixing in some takedowns to get the judges nod.

On DraftKings, Diakiese is my preferred play. At $7.1k I would be pretty surprised if he didn’t end up on the optimal lineup with a win. I also think he is a great pivot away from a chalk Masvidal. I think Diakiese’s best path to a victory is with a knockout or takedowns. Either of those will score well in DraftKings and I don’t see this being a boring fight, so I like him a good bit as an underdog. He is hard to trust though, and Duffy could win via KO, sub, or decision. For that reason, I want some Duffy lineups as well. I will be overweight on Diakiese here, so I want Duffy more so as a hedge. If you are picking Duffy to win, then I would go overweight on him and use Diakiese as the hedge. I won’t be near 50/50 on this fight though and I will only have a few Duffy lineups since I am picking the dog to pull this one out. I think both sides are playable in cash as well, but I do like it more for GPPs.

Winner – Mark Diakiese via Unanimous Decision

 

Arnold Allen $8,700 vs Jordan Rinaldi $7,500

Arnold Allen

Age: 25

Height: 5’9

Weight: 145

Reach: 70”

Gym: BKK Fighters

From: United Kingdom

UFC Record: 4-0

Fight Matrix: 63

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: -135

 

This is a very fun fight. Arnold Allen is a young upcoming prospect, who has flashed a lot of promise in the UFC cage. He will be taking on a grizzled veteran, who is looking better than he ever has. Rinaldi has won 2 of 3 fights and is coming off a dominant decision victory over Jason Knight. Arnold Allen is undefeated in the UFC at 4-0 and is coming off grabbing a win out of the jaws of defeat in his last fight. He was able to get a very late submission after being dominated for 2.5 rounds by Mads Burnell. Allen is a young, dynamic athlete. He has very fast hands and nice fluid kicks. He uses good in and out footwork, movement and has good distance control. He will pump the jab out there & throw leg kicks. He will throw oblique kicks to the legs. He is southpaw and has a good lead hook. He will throw hard one-twos & jab, overhands and his left hand has big power. He will attack with a hard-overhand left lead and has very fast hand speed. He has good front kicks and nice head kicks as well. He will throw hard sidekicks to the body. He doesn’t hold his hands up & relies more on getting in & out, keeping the volume high. He could move his head better and can get hit but he wears it well and does a good job of tucking his chin. He is also excellent at never stopping until the horn sounds. He has finished multiple fighters late in rounds when fighters relaxed. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents on the feet & fighters wilt under the pressure. Allen is only 24 years old & I expect him to be steadily improving. Allen has 5 KO/TKOs & has never been finished.

Arnold Allen is a strong grappler, but not an incredible wrestler. He is strong in the clinch and will dig an under hook or get a tight waist and control opponents against the cage. He will bully opponents to the mat with throws & has very nice trips. He will throw heavy knees to the head, body, and has nice spinning attacks off the break. He has pretty solid takedown defense but can be taken down. When he starts to get the timing of opponent’s takedowns, he has a very strong sprawl. He will sprawl, circle to the side & attack with big elbows. He has solid back takes but can be shucked off. He is hard to hold down & when he stands up he will attack immediately. He is excellent at landing shots in those transition periods from grappling to striking. He will attack with guillotines to counter takedowns. Off his back he has a very strong lower body, and is able to use butterfly hooks to stand up & or sweep. He was able to sweep, control and mount a great wrestler in Makwan Amarkhani. He has fought back to back wrestlers and is getting another one here. He should be very used to having fighters diving for his legs by now. Allen has 4 career submissions, including a very nice front choke finish in his last match. He has never been submitted. Allen is going to be the better striker here, and faster fighter. He is going to be looking to strike while Rinaldi will be looking to take it to the mat. He needs to land his one-two & overhand left as Rinaldi tries to come inside & go forward. He needs to be ready to sprawl hard & if he can land shots when Rinaldi attempts takedowns to make him hesitant to do it again, he should do it. He has great cardio & will always push a pace. If this is a decision, Allen is the home town fighter.

 

Jordan Rinaldi

Age: 31

Height: 5’10

Weight: 145

Reach: 72”

Gym: Team Roc

From: North Carolina

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 43

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +115

 

Jordan Rinaldi is coming off the best performance of his career. He made the drop to 145 lbs & dominated Jason Knight on the mat. He is a big 145 and used that to his advantage taking Knight down at will. Rinaldi is light on his feet & has good in & out movement as well. He has nice leg kicks & will throw a lot of front kicks and jabs. He will throw overhand right, left hooks. He has nice, rear uppercuts. He will throw solid head kicks, & step in knees. He does a great job of using his strikes to set up single and double leg takedowns. He has solid lateral movement, but when he gets blitzed heavy he tends to back straight up and can be hit clean. He has a solid chin and has only been finished via strikes one time in his career. He doesn’t possess big power and has just 1 TKO finish in his career.

Rinaldi is a strong grappler & brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He does a good job of using body shots to try to get in on an under hook. He has decent clinch takedowns, but his best takedown is the double leg. He has very nice timing & was able to get Jason Knight down continuously with them. He was able to stay safe on top in Knights dangerous guard and basically dominated him on top. He was able to land nice elbows, move to dominant positions, never be threatened and kept Knight on his back. He was able to move to mount & take the back and attack with RNC’s. He has gotten a von flue choke submission in the UFC. He was taken down, mounted & finished with G&P by Gregor Gillespie. He has 8 career submissions & has been submitted twice. Rinaldi has good cardio & the experience advantage here. Rinaldi is going to want to use his striking to get inside & get the fight to the ground. I’m sure he saw Burnell take Allen down multiple times and feels he can do the same. He needs to set his shots up well & not shoot from too far out. I feel that he needs to slow down the pace of the fight to win & not strike much.

 

I think Allen is the better all-around fighter here, but Rinaldi is the better wrestler and I think that would be his path to victory. I think Allen will box him up on the feet and he has the more dangerous submissions, but he can be taken down and spend too much time on his back. Rinaldi is coming off an upset win where he did just that to his opponent, so I am sure he will be looking to do that again. I think he will have some success with takedowns, but I don’t see him getting a finish and I don’t think he can land them consistently for 3 rounds. I am going to lean with Allen to get a decision win here because I think he will be the better fighter on the feet and I think he can get some reversals or enough get-ups to keep this fight standing more often than not. I think the line is about right on this one though, so I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting either side.

This is one of my least favorite fights on DraftKings. My preferred play is Rinaldi because his path to victory is through his wrestling. I don’t see him having a high ceiling, but he can get at least 10x in a win, so I do have some interest. I might have a couple GPP shots on Rinaldi but for the most part I will fade this fight. I don’t have any interest in Allen because I don’t think he has a high ceiling either, but I also don’t think he gets 10x if he wins. He has never even scored 80 DK points in a win so far and I don’t see him having any 100+ point upside here. I would rather just pick other favorites and if either of these guys make my player pool it will be the underdog. If I was making 5 or less lineups this would be an easy fade for me.

Winner – Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision

 

Jack Marshman $8,800 vs John Philips $7,400

Jack Marshman

Age: 29

Height: 6’0

Weight: 185

Reach: 73”

Gym: Tillery Combat MMA

From: Wales

UFC Record: 2-3

Fight Matrix: 89

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: -155

 

In the first ever battle of Welshmen in the octagon, Jack Marshman & John Phillips should produce a brawl. Both fighters go in to bang & there’s a high possibility someone is getting finished. John Phillips is returning after a spirited effort against Kevin Holland and trying to avoid going 0-3 in the company. Marshman has also lost 2 in a row. The loser of this fight will most likely be cut. Jack Marshman has been up & down in his UFC career. He has produced fun fights, some upsets, but has had some bad losses as well. He is coming off a decision loss against Karl Roberson where he took a lot of punishment. He is a boxer himself & fairly quick for the division. He likes to use a lot of feints and fakes from the outside as well as stutter step movement to disguise his entries and then explode forward. He has decent head movement when closing the distance and he will throw full power overhands and hooks making him very dangerous in close range. He has fast hands in the pocket and will throw three to four punches at a time. He has good footwork and does a great job of cutting off the cage to stalk his opponents. He will throw nice jabs, straight punches, and closes the distance with a nice lead uppercut. He will throw straight punches and hooks to the body. He is much better when he is going forward, and when he starts to get tired and pushed back he is much less effective. He rarely throws kicks and will only throw a few leg kicks a fight. He has been finished four times and is a tough guy but has a questionable chin. He has 13 KO/TKO’s and can definitely finish the fight with one shot.

Marshman is not a good grappler and a poor wrestler. He has very bad takedown defense and off his back he is not very dangerous. He has 17% takedown defense in the UFC and gets taken down very easily with double legs. He is tough and has only been submitted one time, but he can be grinded out. He does have a few submissions off his back such as armbars and triangles, but those were a long time ago vs regional level competition. He doesn’t go for takedowns or try to get into the clinch. If he hurts you he will get on top and has a few submission victories. Marshman slows down as well and he is most dangerous in the early rounds. This is going to be a fight where two fighters meet in the middle & throw. Marshman should look to go first, throw hard & maybe attack the body. He should try to mix in straight punches to counter the wide hooks of Phillips.

 

John Phillips

Age: 33

Height: 5’11

Weight: 185

Reach: 75”

Gym: SBG Ireland

From: Wales

UFC Record: 0-2

Fight Matrix: 197

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +135

 

John Phillips, the White Mike Tyson, is a knock out artist out of SBG Ireland. Phillips is a solid boxer. He has a nice one-two & a powerful right hook. He will throw wild overhand right, left hook combination. He will throw hard hooks & uppercuts to close the distance. He has solid hand speed & is extremely dangerous in the pocket. Kevin Holland had him hurt multiple times but was unwilling to engage in the pocket due to Phillips power. He throws heavy, low leg kicks. He can be out struck by fighters who can stay long. He has a great chin & is very hard to put away. He keeps heavy forward pressure, walks through shots, to get in the pocket & let his hands go. When he gets fighters backed towards the cage, he will unload with hard hooks & uppercut combinations to the body & head. Phillips has 18 KO/TKOs in 21 wins.

Phillips is not a good grappler and has very poor submission defense. He has been submitted many times. He doesn’t have good takedown defense & can be taken down fairly easily when opponents get in on his legs. His opponents can also take him down by catching his kicks. Off his back he doesn’t have much. He seems lost & will only just try to explode to his feet while exposing his back. He was submitted very quickly by Charles Byrd in his UFC debut.  He has been submitted 5 times including in both of his UFC fights. He was able to take a round striking & be 1-1 with Kevin Holland going into round 3. He was taken down very quickly into the round & couldn’t get free of Holland. He was able to stand up once, but gave his back, and was ultimately submitted by rear naked choke. He is getting a fairly good matchup here, because Jack Marshman is mostly a boxer as well. If this fight is contested on the feet, it will be a good chance for Phillips to get a knockout victory. He needs to get inside, make it a brawl and throw in combination. If he can land a clean shot on Marshman he could take him out.

 

This could be our Fight of the Night. Both guys have no interest in taking fights to the ground and they prefer to just brawl it out. Neither guy is very technical on the feet, but both throw with power and have heavy hands. I expect this to be a crazy fight with both guys swinging back and forth until one drops. Even if this fight only lasts one round it could be fun enough for it to win the Fight of the Night bonus. I don’t know why Marshman would be -165 in this spot though because I don’t see him being much better than Philips in any standup department and I don’t see the crowd coming into play because I think this fight ends in KO either way. I am going to take the underdog here and this is my 1u bet of the week. I think Philips throws the harder bombs and if these two do get into a fire fight then I think his shots will put Marshman down and I like getting + money on him outright. There are no prop odds out yet but if you want an even better line, then I think Philips ITD or via TKO are worth a look as well.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is Philips. I do like both sides a lot, but I think this is a GPP only fight. I don’t expect any takedowns, but I do think this fight ends in knockout, so it is one of the better fights to target IMO. I like Philips a lot more because he is $1,400 cheaper, I am picking him to win, and it is much easier for him to end up on the winning lineup with a win than it is for Marshman. I will likely have this fight in about half my lineups or more, but I would guess that is around 35% Philips and 15% Marshman. If you are making 3-5 lineups or less I would just take a stand and pick one side instead of taking shots on both, but if you are making more than 5 then I’d have exposure to both sides. I prefer to be higher on Philips but if you think Marshman gets the KO then you should flip your exposure.

Winner – John Philips via 1st round (T)KO

 

Claudio Silva $8,600 vs Danny Roberts $7,600

Claudio Silva

Age: 36

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 71”

Gym: London Shootfighters

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 3-0

Fight Matrix: 42

Last Fought: 10 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W12

Betting Odds: -145

 

This is the quintessential striker vs grappler fight. Claudio Silva returned with a bang after nearly 3 years off, submitting Nordine Taleb. He will be facing Danny “Hot Chocolate” Roberts, who is coming off back to back wins himself. Silva is undefeated at 3-0 in the UFC, and the winner of this match will most likely get a top 15 matchup next. It will be interesting who the crowd cheers for here, because although Claudio Silva is Brazilian, he is a long-time stablemate of London Shootfighters, while Danny Roberts is from the U.K. Silva isn’t much of a striker & only a specialist. He is a southpaw. He will throw one-twos and round kicks to the body. He likes to throw a jab or one-two body kick. He actually has a pretty accurate straight left hand. He does a good job of feinting a level change and throwing the straight left. He will throw a long right hook, straight left hand. He will close the distance with wide, looping hooks right into takedown attempts. He is a bit slow & a plodder and definitely gasses out when he can’t get takedowns. He is very tough & is very opportunistic. He does a great job of weathering a storm, finding his takedown and getting the finish or the round. I do think he actually has solid pop in his shots & earned Leon Edwards respect on the feet. He is not looking to knock you out though, and only has two career TKOs. He has won 12 consecutive fights, and his only loss is via disqualification.

Claudio Silva is a great grappler. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Silva does a good job of getting inside with his strikes to get the fight to the ground. He will get in on double legs. He has a good single leg & has great grip strength when he gets ahold of the leg. He will get in on a double leg, come up into a body lock & will chain takedowns together against the fence. He will pull guard if he feels he can’t finish the takedown. He is very heavy on top & has old school Jiu-Jitsu. He has great guard passing & will methodically move to dominant position. In half guard he will look for arm triangles & land short punches and elbows. He has a quick mount take & has good ground & pound on top. He will force opponents to give up their back, where he has great control, can flatten opponents out and try to lock in rear naked chokes. He has 7 career submissions including a rear naked in his return fight. When he gets the fight to the ground, most of the time he’s winning the round. He has 7 career submissions & has never been submitted in his career. The game plan is pretty simple for Silva. He is going to want to get the fight to the mat and get the submission. Danny Roberts was put in bad positions on the ground against David Zawada, and if Silva gets him in those spots he very likely will get the finish.

 

Danny Roberts

Age: 31

Height: 6’1

Weight: 170

Reach: 74”

Gym: Combat Club

From: United Kingdom

UFC Record: 5-2

Fight Matrix: 88

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +125

 

Danny Roberts is a good striker & crisp boxer. He likes to use lateral movement and walk you into his kicks and punches. He has a very nice jab, left straight combination with great accuracy and power. He will throw a check right hook if you are getting too aggressive. He will throw a jab, overhand right. He throws a left hook, right hook combination. He will throw the inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw front & round kicks to the body occasionally and has a nice head kick. He can get walked down and if he gets caught against the fence is there to be unloaded on. He has 6 KO/TKOs himself but has a questionable chin. He has been KO’d twice in his career.

Roberts showed some decent grappling in his last match. He was able to get a body lock takedown and control on top. He was able to move to half guard and land hard elbows. He was able to shuck Zawada off his back. He doesn’t have the best takedown defense and can be taken down. Off his back he looks lost. He had his back taken & was mounted by Mike Perry, almost submitted multiple times by David Zawada & if he gets put on his back against Claudio Silva he will be in big trouble. He gives up his back & dominant positions and needs to avoid the ground at all costs. He has 5 submissions & has been submitted once himself. He has poor cardio & does get tired as the fight continues. Roberts is going to want to keep this fight on the feet & stay long. He needs to use his one-twos, leg kicks, and lateral movement to not get backed up towards the cage. If he can land clean on Silva, continuously pick him off, stop his takedown attempts and keep it standing, while slowly breaking Silva down, that’s his path to victory.

 

On the feet I expect Roberts to dominate Silva. That is his path to victory whether it be via KO or keeping it standing for 15-minutes. Silva’s path to victory is on the ground. I think if he can get it to the ground then he has a good chance at locking up a submission and that is why I think he is favored here. I don’t think he can consistently land enough takedowns to be favored in a decision though. Roberts is the home country fighter here so if this goes 15-minutes I think he can get his hand raised. It could be a close split decision if that is the case, but I am going to pick Roberts to win by knockout. I don’t expect this fight to be close on the feet and I think the edge there might even be bigger than Silva’s edge on the ground. Silva only has a 25% takedown accuracy so if he can’t get a submission with his first or second takedown then I think he could be in trouble. I think there are a lot of live underdogs on this card and Roberts is another one I don’t hate at his +130 odds.

This is the last of my favorite fights to target both sides of. My preferred play is Roberts since I am picking him to win, but I do think this fight ends in a finish, so I expect the winner to be on the optimal lineup. If Silva can get a submission I would think it is 1st or 2nd round, and if that is the case he will pay off his salary. If Roberts can get a KO, then he for sure has a good chance at being on the optimal at his salary and I don’t expect him to be highly owned. There are a lot of live dogs on this card so that is why I see Roberts going under owned. Even though I am picking him to win, I don’t care for him in cash games. His floor is too low for me to trust in cash, but I do plan on being overweight in GPPs. I don’t think Silva is a good enough wrestler to get him down consistently but if he can get just one then he can get a submission and possibly end up on the optimal. I want shots at that in GPPs, but I will probably have close to 30% Roberts and only 20% or so Silva.

Winner – Danny Roberts via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Nathaniel Wood $9,400 vs Jose Quinonez $6,800

Nathaniel Wood

Age: 25

Height: 5’6

Weight: 135

Reach: 69”

Gym: Titan Fighter

From: England

UFC Record: 2-0

Fight Matrix: 21

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W7

Betting Odds: -325

 

This is a great matchup. The hometown kid Nathaniel Wood has not disappointed since joining the UFC, going 2-0 with two finishes. He will be taking on the perennially underrated Teco Quinones who is riding a 4-fight win streak. Both fighters are relatively young in their careers in terms of fighting tough opposition, and it’s a step up for both guys. Nathaniel Wood is a well-rounded fighter & improving quickly. He is a very solid striker with big power. Wood is more of a Muay Thai striker. He plants his feet & has much less movement. He is very quick & has a nice jab and hard leg kicks. He has a good overhand right. He will throw hard, counter left hooks. He likes to counter with straight right hands, and hooks. He will throw a left hook, front kick to the body, straight right hand combination. He has a nice front kick to the body. He looked great in his last match. He walked down Andre Ewell and took it to him. He has good head movement and a great chin. He is willing to take shots to give his own. He throws a lot of volume, and slowly starts to wear on opponents if fights go long. If he gets clipped, he will back up to the cage, and use head movement and a high guard to defend while trying to land one big shot. While it isn’t a great strategy IMO, he has been able to catch and finish opponents doing this. He has one punch knockout power if he lands clean and keeps his power for all three rounds. He has 9 KO/TKO’s, and only been finished once by strikes due to doctor’s stoppage.

Wood isn’t an offensive grappler, but he has good technique, and will drop and submit opponents. In his last match he did control his opponent against the cage & land some nice knees. He was able to get inside when Ewell threw a kick & took him down. He had nice punches to the body & head from guard. When he postured up he landed some brutal shots to the body & head. He has great cardio & will throw many shots in a row. After top control in all 3 rounds, he was able to get the back & lock in a rear naked choke. He has very good takedown defense. He has good sprawls, and he will look for chokes from the front headlock position. He got a D’arce Choke after denying the takedown of Johnny Eduardo. I haven’t seen fights of him where he gets taken down & is forced to work off his back. He has 4 career submissions & has been submitted twice himself. He is peaking right now having finished 7 fights in a row. He has great cardio & a lot of confidence. Wood is going to be the stronger, faster athlete here. I feel he has the better overall technique on the feet & is a bit crisper, but he will have to cut Teco off. If he can back Teco up, throw straight punches down the pipe to counter his looping shots I could see him knocking him out. I was impressed with his grappling as well in his last match & feel he may be able to get takedowns.

 

José Quiñónez

Age: 28

Height: 5’8

Weight: 135

Reach: 69”

Gym: Entram Gym

From: Mexico

UFC Record: 4-1

Fight Matrix: 48

Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: +265

 

Teco is a well-rounded fighter. He is light on his feet & has good in & out movement. He tries to fight long. He has nice jab, one-twos. He has a nice, lead left hook. He will throw jabs & straight right hands to the body. He has nice round kicks to the body. He will throw hard front kicks to the body & oblique kicks to the legs. He has nice, low leg kicks. He will throw counter fadeaway left hooks. He will throw left hooks to the body & head. He has a good counter straight right hand. He will throw an uppercut, straight-right hand combination. He will throw hard, looping left hooks when fighters close the distance. He will throw nice head kicks. He is good at fighting moving backwards & countering. He will throw nice leg, body, and head kicks, and counter with left hooks & straight punches. He doesn’t fight well when pressured and can get hit with clean shots. He backs up in straight lines. He has a questionable chin, but good recoverability. He tends to get dropped a lot in fights but will come back to win. He has been TKO’d twice in his career. He is a volume striker & not a power guy. He has 2 TKO’s in his career.

Quiñónez is a strong grappler & has good takedowns. He showed nice clinch work in his last match against Ishihara. He was able to control him against the cage & land hard knees to the body. He does a good job of keeping heavy pressure on opponents & trying to get the back from standing. He has nice body lock takedowns. He does a good job of catching kicks & taking opponents down. On top, he keeps heavy pressure & throws a lot of volume on the ground. He will improve his position, and has good top control, but he isn’t overly dangerous on top. He knows when to bail on positions & stay connected instead of losing the position entirely or ending up on his back. Quiñónez has 1 submission & has never been submitted. I see Quiñónez using lateral movement, circling & trying to counter. I see him eventually looking for takedowns & getting the fight to the ground. He needs to slow down the fight to have a chance to win here, and not take many risks. He has a questionable chin and can definitely be KO’d here. If he can have spots of control time against the cage, on the ground & then do enough striking he can win the match.

 

Wood is going to have a ton of crowd support behind him here fighting in his home town. I have also been super impressed with what I have seen from him and I think he has a high ceiling in the sport. I expect him to be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes, and I think Quinonez is going to have to finish him to get a win. He isn’t much of a finisher though, so I don’t see that happening and I think if there is a play to make on this fight then it is Wood. He can piece Jose up on the feet and he can land takedowns and win the fight on the ground as well. The crowd is going to go nuts every time he does anything good, so I don’t see how Jose wins a decision here even if he can keep it close. I think Wood puts him away on the feet at some point in this fight though and I see him getting a big step up for his next fight.

On DraftKings, Wood is one of my favorite plays of the week and he will be in most of my lineups. I am not positive that he scores super highly, but he is my most confident pick to win so he is a lock and cash and just easy to start my GPP lineups with. I do think he will be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes, and I think he will fight at a high pace and get a finish. If that is the case, then he should pay off that top priced salary and still have a shot to end up on the optimal. I have zero interest in Jose because I like a lot of underdogs this week, but since I do like so many underdogs that will help me go overweight or even all in on a $9.4k Wood. I expect to have at least 70% Wood and he is where I am starting most lineups I make.

Winner – Nathaniel Wood via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Dominick Reyes $9,300 vs Volkan Oezdemir $6,900

Dominick Reyes

Age: 29

Height: 6’4

Weight: 205

Reach: 77”

Gym: Elevation Fight Team

From: California

UFC Record: 4-0

Fight Matrix: 15

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W10

Betting Odds: -265

 

Dominick Reyes has looked very impressive thus far. He essentially knocked OSP out in their last match, but it was right at the bell. With a win over Volkan he would most likely be one fight away from a title shot. Reyes is a dynamic athlete with knock out power & well-rounded skills. Reyes has great lateral footwork & head movement. He will work behind a lot of feints & fakes. He will start off landing a nice jab & then fake the jab & come with the straight right hand. He will throw a jab, left hook combo. He also likes to throw a lead uppercut, straight-right. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand to the body. He will slip a punch in the pocket, quickly load up and return with a powerful uppercut. He attacks the body nicely with round kicks, especially when opponents are trying to circle off the cage or at the end of combinations. He will go high with the kick as well & has very fast kicks. When he gets opponents backed against the cage, he does an amazing job of keeping them there. He has great shot selection & will stay long but keep the volume high with jabs, straights, overhands & uppercuts. He has 6 KO/TKOs all in round one & has big power.

Reyes is a strong grappler. He showed a nice clinch game in his last match. He was able to land some nice knees & control OSP against the clinch. He also did a great job of making OSP pay for takedown attempts. He landed brutal elbows to the side of the head & nice hammer fists.  He does a great job of controlling a wrist & throwing nice hooks & uppercuts. He does a great job of throwing strikes off the break. He has very good takedown defense & great get-ups. Getting takedowns on Reyes usually just tires his opponent out because he can just get up quickly. He will shoot a single leg takedown, but he doesn’t look for many takedowns. He has also done well in some iBJJf competitions, so he has shown some competency in Jiu-Jitsu realm. He was able to get a rear naked choke against Jeremy Kimball. His cardio waned a bit against Saint Pruex, but he went to Colorado for this camp to address that issue. He has two career submissions. Reyes is going to need to use lateral movement early & try to pick Oezdemir apart going backwards. He needs to land leg kicks, body shots & pick punches well to keep Oezdemir guessing. Once Volkan gets more tired, he should start to come forward, push Volkan to the cage and open up more. He has more tools in his toolbox & better cardio so the farther this fight goes it favors Reyes.

 

Volkan Oezdemir

Age: 29

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205

Reach: 75”

Gym: Fight Move Academy

From: Switzerland

UFC Record: 3-2

Fight Matrix: 11

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +225

 

Volkan Oezdemir has had a fall from grace after his meteoric rise to a title shot. He has been finished in back to back fights, and there questions if he’s truly an elite fighter. He will be taking on Dominick Reyes who is one of the best prospects in the UFC. He is 4-0 and getting his chance to move into the top 5. Volkan Oezdemir had one of the quickest runs to a title shot in UFC history. He won 3 consecutive fights, two in under one minute and was granted a title shot. The shine has come off him now after a submission loss to Anthony Smith & he needs a victory badly here. He has had some issues getting a visa to come to the USA due to legal issues, so he didn’t train at Combat Club. He was forced to train at Fight Move Academy, his original home town gym. Oezdemir is a big, powerful kickboxer. He has a nice jab, he will double and triple up on it, as well as use it to attack the body. He will mix in lead left hooks. He has crazy power in his short hooks with both hands. He knocked out Misha Cirkunov with a 6” punch. He will throw a left hook, straight-right combo. He will throw a lead right or overhand right. He has heavy leg kicks, and strong body kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick, especially when opponents are trying to circle off the cage. He started very fast in his last match & hurt Smith a couple times but couldn’t put him away. Volkan becomes very hittable when he gets tired & his shots come much more labored. He has a great chin, he is a long-time training partner of Anthony “Rumble” Johnson and taken some huge shots against OSP and DC. He shows good ability to fire back when he is getting lit up and is always dangerous even when he’s hurt. He will stick in the pocket with a high guard and try to find his own openings to land shots. His defense can leave a lot to be desired at times. He doesn’t have great movement and tends to just back straight up to the cage with a high guard when he gets stung. If he is going to KO/TKO his opponent, it’s usually going to be early. He has 5 KO/TKOs in under 1 minute, and 11 overall all in round one. He has been finished by G&P TKO one-time vs Daniel Cormier.

Volkan was able to land a couple takedowns in his last match which were the first he ever landed in the UFC. He showed a decent explosive double leg & body lock trip. In top position, he has shown brutal ground & pound early in his career, but Smith was largely able to stay safe. His takedown defense is not very good especially after he gets tired. He is physically strong & does a good job of framing & throwing short punches & elbows. Hanging around in the clinch with Volkan is a scary proposition. He will be very aggressive with short hooks & uppercuts and put you out. We saw the brutal finish he had of Jimi Manuwa in similar fashion. Off his back Oezdemir has looked like a fish out of water. He was dominated and finished by DC and has been submitted by Kelly Admundson & Anthony Smith. When Smith got the takedown in round 3 he was able to almost immediately take the back. Oezdemir showed some heart getting out of a deep rear naked choke, but Smith readjusted & ultimately got the tap. Oezdemir has one career submission & been submitted twice. He has cardio issues & definitely needs to pace himself better. Oezdemir is going to have to go forward, put the pressure on Reyes & touch him. He is at a speed & footwork disadvantage, but he always has the equalizer with his power.

 

This is a fight with two very hyped prospects. Oezdemir’s hype was derailed a bit in his last loss to Anthony Smith, but he was coming off a title shot before that. To me, Reyes is the next wave of top guys. He is a very explosive athlete and he has looked very impressive in his 4 UFC fights. I think his ceiling is much higher than Oezdemir’s and I think the only way Reyes loses this fight is via KO. I expect him to be the better fighter anywhere this fight goes, and the only real worry is the power of Volkan. If Reyes doesn’t get knocked out, then he is going to knock out Volkan or win a clear decision. I think he finishes Volkan though in the 1st or 2nd round and does it in dominant fashion.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is Reyes. I would guess that every one of my lineups will have either Reyes or Wood and I think they are the top two plays on the board as their prices indicate. I like them both more than Till and I am hoping Till steals some of the ownership away from these guys. I think Reyes is fine in cash, but he does have a low floor, so I would prefer him more in GPPs. I will be overweight on him and I may even fade Volkan here. Volkan does have a high ceiling though and if he does win I think it is via KO. If that happens at his price tag, then I would be shocked if he didn’t end up on the optimal. I think he is a fine GPP play and if you want to be overweight on him that is fine. I just like too many underdogs to win for me to have much exposure to him, if any.

Winner – Dominick Reyes via 3rd round (T)KO

 

Leon Edwards $8,300 vs Gunnar Nelson $7,900

Leon Edwards

Age: 27

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: 74”

Gym: Ultimate Training Centre

From: England

UFC Record: 8-2

Fight Matrix: 13

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: -120

 

Leon Edwards vs Gunnar Nelson is a high-level co-main event. Gunnar Nelson returned after a fairly long layoff and got a nice finish over Cowboy Oliveira. He looked much different physically and is jacked now. He has returned to SBG for this camp, which I’m a little bit hesitant about. He will be taking on the underrated Leon Edwards. Edwards has won 6 consecutive fights and beaten solid competition. He holds wins over Albert Tumenov, Bryan Barberena, Vincente Luque, and Donald Cerrone on the streak. Leon Edwards is very confident & riding a wave of momentum here. With a win here, he can no longer be overlooked & I feel it’s a bigger fight for him than Nelson. Leon Edwards is long southpaw striker with power. Edwards has a very good jab & a strong straight-left hand. He will throw one-twos and jab, body kicks. He has nice counter left straights and left uppercuts. He will attack the body with left straights. He is very good at throwing kicks moving backwards, which is an odd skill. He can stop, plant & immediately throw hard, left body kicks. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He will throw a left head kick to a straight left-hand combination. He’s very fast & can land a shot, back up, and then spring back in and land another. When he has fighters backed to the cage, he’s great at fighting long & attacking the body. He will throw flying knees. He has good volume & is great at winning decisions. He has power and can finish the fight. He is very cerebral & he will come into this fight with a game plan and execute it. He won’t go in there and get emotional or do anything irrational. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career. He is very durable and has never been finished.

Leon Edwards is a good grappler. He is strong in the clinch, has nice elbows & knees to the body & head. He was able to cut Cerrone with a knee to the head in the clinch. Edwards is a very good wrestler, and if you didn’t know you would think he’s been wrestling his whole life. He has great double leg shots & strong body lock takedowns. He will chain takedowns together & does a great job of transitioning from a double leg to a body lock takedown. He has nice trips in the clinch. Edwards can get overaggressive going for trips & get reversed. On top, Edwards has great control and a very suffocating top game. You can tell he has trained at AKA and picked up some tricks. He likes to get to half guard where he will posture up, get a double wrist lock & take the back similar to Khabib. He will trap the planting arm of his opponent, pull it into his body, keep a hold of it with one hand and wail with the other. The shots will usually force opponents to turn & give their backs. He has good control from the back, and good top control overall. He has a good half guard & will attack body, head with shots. He will stay safe on top & rack up control time as well. I do feel he can safely take Nelson down & control on top, but he may not want to risk it. Edwards has excellent takedown defense. He will move to get his back against the fence, widen his base & deny doubles. Edwards will try to reverse single legs & get top position. He has great head positioning and will get his hips back quickly. Overall, he is very hard to takedown. Edwards has only really been taken down & controlled by the current champion Kamaru Usman. Edwards isn’t a super dangerous submission threat, but he has a good rear naked. He has 3 submissions & has never been subbed. Edwards has great cardio & will be fresher in the later rounds IMO. He needs to throw the low leg kicks early & often, slow the movement of Nelson & then go for the kill. Once Nelson slows he walks into punches with his hands down & becomes much more hittable. Edwards should go forward more once Nelson is a bit compromised, get his back near the cage & attack body head. If he can keep it standing & not get caught with a big shot I think he’s the better striker long term.

 

Gunnar Nelson

Age: 30

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 72”

Gym: Mjölnir

From: Iceland

UFC Record: 8-3

Fight Matrix: 15

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +100

 

Gunnar Nelson is a black belt in karate & a very good striker. He has a very sideways stance and is very good in & out. He is light on his feet, and ready to spring into a shot or takedowns. Nelson is extremely fast closing the distance. He almost lulls opponents to sleep with slow movements, and then springs into strikes. Nelson has a nasty straight-right hand & very good check left hook. He will throw hard left hook, straight-right hand combinations. He does a great job of meeting opponents in the middle with counters. He will slowly move back when he sees a shot coming, plant on his back foot and string into a straight-right hand, catching opponents first. He has good inside, outside leg kicks & nice body kicks. He will throw tricky head kicks and nice spinning kicks to the body & head. He holds his hands low & can get hit with explosive blitz combos. He is susceptible to low kicks. I feel Edwards will attack the lead leg of Nelson to try to slow his movement. When Nelson tires or his movement slows, he becomes very hittable. Nelson is durable and has a good chin. He has only been knocked out one time. It was a bit controversial how Ponzinibbio got the knockout, because Nelson got poked in the eyes in the exchange.

Nelson is a great grappler. He is a strong wrestler & black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. Nelson likes to time takedowns from the outside & has good drive. He has nice body lock takedowns. He is good at using his punches to level change after a combination. Nelson has a crushing top game when he gets on top. He has great guard passing and an awesome mount take. When he gets to mount he will throw nasty, slicing elbows. He cut Alex Oliveira badly in his last match, basically leading to the finish. Nelson will look for rear naked chokes, and high elbow guillotines. He has 13 submissions & has never been submitted himself. The only time he was dominated on the mat, was against Demian Maia. He does slow down as the fight continues & I see Edwards having the better cardio. Gunnar Nelson is going to want to get this fight to the mat. He is going to start fast IMO, try to move in & out, get Edwards backed to the cage and take him down. If he gets on top, he needs to try to take mount and go for the finish. He could clip Edwards with a shot, but I think Edwards overall is the better striker.

 

This is a top-level fight between two guys who can contend for the belt. Edwards is the home country guy here and I think he should have a slight edge on the feet. He strikes at a slightly higher rate and I think he lands with more power as well. He has also improved his wrestling a lot over the years and he has a solid top game as well. However, if this fight hits the ground I expect Nelson to have a decent edge and a much bigger edge than Edwards would have on the feet. I think this fight can stay close if it stays standing but if Nelson can land takedowns then that is his path to victory. He can get a submission on the ground or use takedowns to help him get a win from the judges. I think this line should be closer to even and I actually thought Nelson was going to open a slight favorite, so I am going to go with the underdog here and I expect the ground game to be what gets his hand raised. If this does go all 3 rounds it could be a close split decision, but I will pick Nelson to be the first person to submit Edwards here in this spot.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is Nelson. He is the one I would expect to go for takedowns and I am picking him to win. I will be rostering every underdog I pick to win, and this will be no different. I won’t be super high on him because if he doesn’t land takedowns then I think he might not even get 10x in a decision win. Or he could lose. Edwards is a beast and he should have an edge in the striking I just think he has to get a knockout to score highly. If he wins, I doubt he gets much more than 10x, if he can even reach that. I don’t think I will end up with much exposure to Edwards, but I wouldn’t talk anyone off him. He could go out there and get a KO and if he does that at $8.3k then he can win somebody $25k. I just think if he wins it is most likely by decision. I will take the underdog here and I will look to be overweight on him as well. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably have 3-4 Nelson and 0 Edwards.

Winner – Gunnar Nelson via 2nd round Submission

 

Darren Till $9,200 vs Jorge Masvidal $7,000

Darren Till

Age:26

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: 75”

Gym: Astra Fight Team

From: United Kingdom

UFC Record: 5-1-1

Fight Matrix: 4

Last Fought: 6 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -265

 

Darren Till was humbled in his last match. He was talking about being unbeatable & the greatest fighter of all time. He was destroyed by Tyron Woodley in arguably the worst championship performance of all time. He is in his home country looking to bounce back. He is talking big again saying he is going to knock Masvidal out in under 1 minute, so it hasn’t affected his confidence. Darren Till is an elite striker. He has a hands low style and keeps a long stance. He has tremendous distance control and does a fantastic job of sliding in and out and controlling range. He has a fantastic jab, and he will follow up the jab with a straight left hand. He is a southpaw and his left hand is nasty. It is super accurate, fast and packs big power. He has nice leg kicks and good oblique kicks. He has great footwork and does an awesome job of cutting off the cage without chasing. If he can get you defensive against the cage, he does a good job of landing hooks from whatever side you are trying to exit. He has sick elbows, and he does a great job of stepping in with elbows when he has his opponents against the cage. He doesn’t attack the body much.

Darren Till is not an offensive grappler and looked lost on the mat in his last match. He is hard to get inside on due to his distance control, but he showed solid takedown defense vs Woodley. He was able to defend all of Woodley’s attempts to take him down. He looked very physically strong in the cage & will have a big size advantage over Masvidal. He won’t wrestle much, but he did show good ground & pound vs Wendell Oliveira in the UFC. He was dropped by Tyron Woodley & allowed Woodley to land brutal G&P elbows before getting a darce. He showed very bad defense on the ground & needs to work on that. Till has two submissions & been submitted once himself. I see Till starting fast, trying to make everyone forget about his last performance. I think he will want to walk Masvidal down & look for straight left hands, counter hooks & punches. Till closes the distance quickly & we saw Masvidal struggle a bit with the blitz attacks of Wonderboy. He was dropped & hit with a few straight punches. If Till lands clean early I see him going for the finish, but I think if he can’t get an early finish he will slow his pace. If this fight is close, they are in England, and we saw a decision a lot of people felt Wonderboy should’ve got in his match.

 

Jorge Masvidal

Age: 34

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 73”

Gym: American Top Team

From: Florida

UFC Record: 9-6

Fight Matrix: NR (Inactivity)

Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +225

 

Masvidal is an extremely talented, well-rounded fighter. He can fight as a pressure fighter, as well as fight moving backwards. His distance control is elite & makes him a very hard fighter to beat. He has an amazing jab, and very good lead left hook. He will keep distance with the jab, then counter with left hooks. He has nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw a one-two down the middle and has nice right hooks & uppercuts. His right hook is extremely powerful & he can put the lights out with it. He will attack the body with nasty punches. He will throw hard straight-rights & left hooks to the body. He has nice round & switch kicks to the liver. He will fake the left switch kick & throw knees up the middle to the body & head. He will throw nice head kicks & will stop opponents head movement, by trying to time the kick off his opponents slips. He will catch kicks & return with punches. He will throw nice wheel kicks to the head & lead leg hook kicks. Masvidal is very smart & cerebral in the cage and will have a game plan formulated on how to take Till out. Masvidal had a tendency in the past to coast. He has lost several split decisions, in fights he clearly was superior. Masvidal is an OG. He has been fighting since the Kimbo backyard street fighting days. He is extremely durable & won’t be intimidated by Till at all. He has 13 KO/TKO’s and has been KO/TKO’d just one time.

Masvidal is a very underrated grappler. He is very good in the clinch and has nasty knees to the body. He is very good at landing shots off the break. He will throw hard elbows, break and then let go with a combination. He has a great inside trip & is a very good clinch wrestler. He is a very strong wrestler, both offensively & defensively. He has a very nice single leg takedown. He will transition from the single to the double leg or knee pick and get it to the ground. He has solid top control, but he really uses his takedowns to break his opponent’s rhythm more than anything. He has excellent takedown defense, and I would be shocked to see him taken down here. He will attack with very nice front chokes to counter takedown attempts & get submissions or create scrambles. He has very good darces. Masvidal has two submissions & been submitted twice. He has great cardio & can go all five rounds easy. I feel Masvidal will take a counter approach in this match. I see him trying to keep his jab out there & counter with the right hook & left hand as Till tries to walk him down. I see him trying to throw a few flurries around to stay more active than Till. I think he will try to time step in knees & round kicks to the body to counter the straight-left hand & forward pressure of Till. I don’t think he wants to go power for power against Till & see him trying to win a technical striking match. I could see Masvidal going for takedowns, but I think he will have more success landing off the break than getting takedowns.

 

I really wanted to pick another upset here in this fight but with this card being in London I think it is going to be hard for Masvidal to get his hand raised. Till is going to have the entire arena behind him here and they are going to go nuts every time he lands a strike. I think he is the more powerful striker and he should be the bigger guy who is pushing forward. However, Masvidal is a very well-rounded veteran and he is hard to finish. He also strikes at a higher pace and he would be the more likely fighter to land takedowns in this spot. I think the -240 line on Till is way too wide here and I think there is value on Masvidal. However, I don’t think Masvidal finishes and if this is a close fight I would be surprised to see him get the road upset from the judges. If this fight was in the US then I would have to take a shot at that +200 on Masvidal, but with this card being in London I am going to pick Till to get his hand raised in a close decision with some possible home town cooking on the scorecards.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is definitely Masvidal. The only way Till scores highly is with a knockout. Even with 5-rounds he doesn’t strike at a high enough pace to get 10x his $9.2k salary and he won’t be going for takedowns. I think I will have a full fade on Till and just try to get up to Wood instead. Masvidal is in play in all formats though and a lock in cash for me. I don’t see him getting knocked out and if he can go 5-rounds then he can get us 40 or so points in a loss and that is totally fine. I think Masvidal could even pull off an upset and if he does that at $7k then he is going to be one of the best plays on the slate. I do think he will be very chalky though so the best play in GPPs might be to fade. I am picking him to lose this fight and I have a lot of underdogs I am picking to win. I think I will be underweight here and just get my Masvidal exposure in cash games. I would expect his fight to be in at least 65% of total lineups, so if we can get a ~70-point Till win then I think that will kill most of the fields chances at that $25k so I want to have a lot of live lineups if that is the case.

Winner – Darren Till via Split Decision

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/

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