BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 4 Location – Wichita, Kansas
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 235 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it a couple of weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple of shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Alex White $8,600 vs Dan Moret $7,600
Alex White
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 71.5”
Gym: Team Destruction
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 3-5
Fight Matrix: 123
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -145
Alex White vs Dan Moret is a battle of two fighters who badly need a win. Dan Moret is 0-1 in the UFC and was knocked out pretty badly by Gilbert Burns. Alex White is coming off back to back losses and a first-round submission loss at the hands of Jim Miller in his last fight. He has lost 3/4 fights & is definitely the fighter in more dire need for a win. Alex White is a UFC veteran now but is fighting for his career here. He has 8 UFC fights, & much more experience than Dan Moret. Alex White is a powerful striker. White has a nice one-two and very good lead left hook. He will throw a left hook, straight right-hand combination. He will throw hard straight punch combinations. He will explode in with multiple straight punches or hooks. He has high volume & keeps heavy pressure on opponents. He will attack the body with straight rights & front kicks. He is very aggressive & throws heavy punches. He will run in with combinations with his chin high & can be countered. He has shown a great chin & will walk through shots. On the feet, I feel White will have the advantage. His opponent has been KO’d twice, so White must be confident he can hurt Moret if he lands clean. He needs to show more composure & not just blitz in when he strikes or hurts an opponent and give them the chance to clinch up. If he hurts Moret he needs to look for the kill shot & be calmer. White has 5 KO/TKOs & has only been knocked out one time. He was dropped early & submitted in his last match vs Jim Miller.
Alex White has very questionable takedown defense. He was taken down multiple times by James Krause. His aggressiveness makes it easy for fighters to just duck under & get in on his legs or a body lock. He has better takedown defense when he isn’t attacking. He has a decent sprawl & will circle to the back. He was shaken off & put on bottom trying to take Krause’s back in Round 3 this way. He was able to sweep James Krause and get a double leg takedown. He has decent defense against the cage digging under hooks and making his base wide. He will throw hard frame elbows & knees to the body/head. He dropped Mitch Clarke with a series of clinch elbows. Off his back, he will attack with elbows, triangles & armbars. White has 5 submissions & has been submitted one time. White is going to want to keep this fight on the feet, and strike. He will be able to land straight punches & hooks and try to keep Moret on the outside. If he can land a few hard combinations on Moret he may be able to take him out.
Dan Moret
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Minnesota
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 226
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +125
Dan Moret trains out of the MMA Lab. Moret is a grappler but fairly well rounded. He fights long. He has decent one-twos and nice leg kicks. He has nice front kicks to the body & head. He will throw round kicks to the head. He will throw straight punch, uppercut combination. He has a nice straight right hand, left hook combination. He has some pop in his shots and was able to earn respect from Gilbert Burns on the feet. He likes to counter with the straight right hand. He will use straight punch combinations to close the distance. He doesn’t move his head & isn’t the fastest fighter. When he gets hit hard he likes to stand in the pocket & try to return instead of being defensively sound. He has been knocked out badly twice in his last 4 fights, and you have to wonder about his chin. He has been knocked out twice in his career & only has one career TKO.
Moret is a very strong grappler. He does a great job of using his strikes to get inside & get takedowns. He has nice double legs & strong body locks. He is very opportunistic in scrambles & great at taking the back. He is a rear naked choke specialist. He will try to jump on arm triangles & guillotines from standing. He is always working & keeps a high work rate on top. He will throw hard ground & pound strikes, and wears on opponents. He was able to get an arm triangle with less than 10 seconds left in his last LFA fight. He has very good cardio & will work from bell to bell. He is going to be looking to get this fight to the floor & exploit White from there. White has shown poor takedown defense over his career, and it’s a clear path to victory in this fight. If he can take the back, he could easily get a rear naked choke. He has 8 career submissions. He has never been submitted himself.
I think this fight is closer than the line indicates, but I would give White the slight advantage overall. He should have the edge on the feet, and I think his wrestling can be used to keep this fight standing. Moret is a solid grappler so he can pull off the upset if he can get this fight to the ground. However, if he is stuck standing the entire time then I have to think White outworks him on the feet to pick up a decision win. I would say it’s a dog or pass fight on the betting line.
On DraftKings, I always like playing the first fight of the night, but I really don’t have a lot of interest in this one. I will say my preferred play is Moret because he is more likely to pay off his salary in a win. If he wins, it will likely be through his grappling and possibly a finish. I think White would need a knockout for him to end up on the optimal lineup. But at $7.6k, almost any win from Moret could be enough to compete for first. Since this is the first fight, I will have some exposure to it because either guy could get finished and I always like starting off the night with a nice high score from an under owned fighter, but I will have more Moret than I do White.
Winner – Alex White via Unanimous Decision
Alex Morono $9,100 vs Zak Ottow $7,100
Alex Morono
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 4-2-1
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -175
Alex Morono looked pretty good his last time out. He switched his training camp to the surging Fortis MMA & it paid off. He was in visibly better shape & was able to earn a dominant decision victory as an underdog in his opponent’s home country. Morono has decent lateral movement & is light on his feet. He has a decent jab & left hook. He will throw a right hook lead. He likes to throw a jab, overhand right combination. He will throw looping overhand rights. He has a solid head kick and a good spinning heel kick. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He can get lazy throwing kicks sometimes and leave his chin in the air. He stands up very tall and is there to be leg kicked and taken down. He doesn’t throw in combination a lot, especially with his hands. He will try to dart in with one overhand right or throw a jab or spinning back fist, but he doesn’t put long combos together. His footwork and ability to cut guys off, keep a pace and high volume of strikes on him is probably his greatest strength. He wears guys down and can start to take over late. He is not very technical & gets very wild. He will wing wide hooks & overhands in the pocket & tends to duck his head and swing & pray. He really lacks composure & doesn’t fight technical at all. He hasn’t shown major power in his career & has 4 KO/TKOs. He has a decent chin but has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career.
Morono is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but he is not much of an offensive grappler. He did jump on a guillotine against Josh Burkman, but that was an old weathered Burkman. Morono is not a wrestler & will rarely go for offensive takedowns. He did attempt a double leg in his last fight against Song. His takedown defense is not good at all, and he can be taken down very easily. He will wing shots wildly & opponents can easily duck under & take him down. He was taken down over & over by Jordan Mein and didn’t show much off his back. He has good guard retention & is hard to pass, but not dangerous. He will try to throw up armbars & triangles, but he isn’t fast with them. He does have a couple over his career. He doesn’t have good get-ups & he can get stuck on his back. He went to Fortis MMA after the Mein fight which is an excellent wrestling gym, I’m sure in part to close that hole. I have heard interviews where he is talking shit about wrestlers and seems to disdain the style. I definitely think it’s still something fighters will be able to exploit going forward in his career. He has 6 career submissions. He has never been submitted in his career. Morono needs to keep this fight on the feet. He needs to be a little bit more composed, use in & out movement and try to land some big shots on Ottow. We have seen Morono show some nice counter striking vs Niko Price. If Morono can keep this fight on the feet & get Ottow tired by backing him up, he could take over as the fight goes on.
Zak Ottow
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Pura Vida BJJ
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 113
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +155
Zak Ottow is a former college football player & has a good frame for the division. He is an average striker. He has a good jab & nice right hook. He will throw a left hook, overhand right combination. He has decent body kicks & hard low kicks. He has a nice overhand right & solid timing on it. He will throw the occasional one-two. He will switch stances often & gives opponents different looks. He can throw high kicks with both legs & has a nice front kick to the head from orthodox. Ottow tries to fight long. He is always popping his jab out there, throwing kicks and seems to 100% commit to his punches at times in order to be in & out. He doesn’t move his head when he comes forward & doesn’t have good defensive fighting backwards. When fighters blitz him, he will just move back in a straight line & even just flop to his back. I feel Ottow is the more technical striker, but Morono is faster. Morono goes for it & I feel on the feet the hooks of Morono could put Ottow in some danger. Ottow doesn’t have big power & just has 3 career KO/TKOs. Ottow is chinny & needs to avoid being hit clean. He has been finished 3 times with strikes.
Zak Ottow is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & I see him wanting to get this fight to the ground. I feel he is going to be the physically stronger fighter & if he can duck under and time a double leg or body lock he should be able to put Morono on his back. He was able to get a couple takedowns in round 3 against Dwight Grant and have top control to win the fight. In my opinion, Dwight Grant is a much better version of Morono in terms of being dangerous with wide shots, but Grant is much more athletic and hits a lot harder. Grant didn’t really let his shots go in the fight, which Morono has no problem doing, so Ottow has to be ready for his aggression. He is good at getting in on his double legs, staying connected & driving his opponents to the cage. He will chain takedowns together there and try to get opponents to the mat. He has a good single leg also. On top Ottow isn’t overly impressive. He likes to get to half guard, really put that pressure on opponents and attack with arm triangles while maintaining dominant position. He was able to pass into mount against Northcutt, but really didn’t do much damage in top position. He was able to get to side control & attacked with a crucifix. He will land short elbows, and punches and do enough to keep the ref from standing it up. He will attack with guillotines. If he gets on top of Morono, I don’t see Morono getting off his back. Ottow did get reversed with a guillotine by Northcutt & mounted. Morono has a very good guillotine and Ottow has to be weary of that. Ottow has 10 career submissions, but none in his 7 fight UFC career. He has been submitted one time in his career. I think Ottow should look to go forward, force Morono to swing hard to get him to back off, duck under and get the fight to the ground. I think he will be effective taking Morono down if he can get in on the legs & I do see him having success with top control. He just needs to avoid getting clipped with a big shot, and I think he can win the fight. Ottow can get tired & if he gasses out against Morono and can’t get the takedown he could find himself in trouble.
This is another dog or pass fight for me. I think Morono is the fighter who will be striking at the higher pace, but I see Ottow throwing the harder shots and looking to take this fight to the ground. I don’t see Morono going for any takedowns and he will be looking to get a knockout, or score points on the feet. If this fight stays standing for 15-minutes, then I would think he wins a decision from pushing the pace and landing more strikes. However, if Ottow can get this fight to the ground then I think he can pick up a submission, or get a decision upset with his top control time. Neither guy is very high-level, but I think the strength of Ottow can help him get takedowns and I am going to pick him to pull off the upset by using his grappling.
On DraftKings, Ottow is my preferred play since I am picking him to win the fight. I think he will have to get multiple takedowns or a finish to score highly, but at $7.1k I am willing to take some shots on that. I really don’t have much interest in Morono at $9.1k though because I think he has to get a finish to end up on the optimal lineup at that salary. I might full fade Morono here and just have 20% or so Ottow in my lineups. If I was making 100-150 LUs then I would certainly have some Morono, but I am thinking closer to 20 this week and for me, I’d rather not waste any on him. I think if you are picking Morono to win then the best move would be to just fade this fight altogether.
Winner – Zak Ottow via Unanimous Decision
Louis Smolka $8,300 vs Matt Schnell $7,900
Louis Smolka
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 107
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -120
Louis Smolka returned to the UFC with a bang. He was cut after four consecutive losses and was in a bad place in his life battling alcoholism. He has now changed his life around, quit drinking, and won 4 consecutive fights. He picked up a submission victory in his return fight & will be looking for his first UFC win streak since 2016. He will be taking on Matt Schnell who is a former TUF competitor and riding a two-fight win streak. Smolka is a pressure fighter on the feet and likes to walk down opponents. He likes to throw a check left hook, leg and body kicks. He will throw a jab, straight right hand. He will throw front kicks to the body, and then try to land a right hook over the top. He has good head kicks. He will throw a lot of straight right hands. He is slow with his strikes, and fighters are able to see his punches coming, slip them and catch his kicks. He doesn’t have great defense, he will just raise his guard and stand flat-footed. He is tough and has a good chin. He will continue to press forward even after he is dropped or bloodied. Smolka isn’t a huge KO threat on the feet, but he had 6 KO/TKO finishes. He has never been finished with strikes himself.
Smolka is a good BJJ practitioner. He is tall and long for the division and tries to use his length to get body locks and trip takedowns, he also will shoot single legs. He did a great job of getting in on the single against Su Mudaerji. He was able to get good timing on a double leg, drove his opponent to the cage & changed it to a single and got him down. Smolka does a good job of using his length in opponent’s guards to posture up and land hard punches. He is good at throwing the legs to the side & moving to side control. He looks to be worried more about control now than he did previously. He is dangerous with submissions, and very good in scrambles. In the past, he used to go for a lot of high-risk submission attempts & be in scramble fest fights. He now in his last few matches is worried more about control & G&P before looking for a submission. He took a beating against Kyle Estrada, and was able to survive, get a takedown in round two and rain down G&P from mount. He severally hurt Estrada and had a great amount of volume. The fight was stopped between rounds. He also had some great ground & pound against Mudaerji and a slick back take. He has 7 submissions. He has only been submitted one time. Smolka seems to have much more of a game plan when he gets in there than he used to. He goes for the takedown almost right away & has a one-track mind. I see him trying to get Schnell on his back, work his G&P and ultimately find a submission.
Matt Schnell
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: CSA Gym
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 220
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +100
Matt Schnell had a shaky start to his UFC career going 0-2 but has bounced back with two wins. Schnell is pretty technical as a striker & going to be the better striker in this matchup. Schnell is light on his feet & has solid footwork. He has a nice jab to the body & head. He has a very nice straight right-hand lead. He will throw a lot of right hooks as well. He will throw a double jab, right hook. He has good leg kicks & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw a straight right, left uppercut, straight right combo. He has good hand speed & closes the distance with fast straight punches. He has nice high kicks & front kicks to the body & head. He does a good job of catching kicks & returning with punches. He is a strong counter striker. He will slip the jab & throw uppercut, straight right-hand combos. He will also throw nice counter fadeaway left hooks. He does a solid job of moving his head when he enters into range, but it stays on center line too long at times after he throws his strikes. When fighters get inside they can hit him clean with straight punches. He is a black belt in karate & very fast in & out. On the feet he’s going to be the better striker. He is a bit chinny, and if Smolka lands clean he could hurt Schnell. Schnell doesn’t have a lot of power & only two career KOs. He is going to have to sit down & hit Smolka with a big shot and earn respect. If he doesn’t, Smolka will walk him down. Schnell has been finished twice by KO/TKO.
Schnell is a good grappler, and it will be interesting how the Jiu-Jitsu will play out. Schnell does a good job of getting double under hooks & pushing opponents to the cage. He will shoot well-timed double legs, but he is not a very active wrestler. He will shoot at the end of rounds to try to steal or seal the round. He also seems to like to wrestle in the third round. When fighters get inside on him, they do see if they can take him down. He stands tall & fighters can get in on his legs. He has solid takedown defense against the cage. He will attack with d’arces also, but he can end up on his back hunting the submissions. He will attack with a nice guillotine to try to counter as well. Off his back, he will throw up triangles & armbars. He got knocked out with very short hammer fists, against Hector Sandoval which was a little eye-opening. He will attack with submissions at the expense of position & can hold on to submissions for too long. I do feel Smolka most likely can get takedowns, and this fight could come down to if Schnell can get up, submit or sweep. Schnell does have good cardio and can go all three rounds at the same pace. Schnell has 7 career submissions. He has been submitted twice himself. Schnell needs to keep this fight standing. He needs to try to use his movement & catch Smolka as he tries to get inside. He will be the better striker & if he can keep it standing three rounds, there is a high likelihood he will win.
This should be a fun fight and it is one of my favorites on the card. I think the line is right and I can’t find any real edge in this fight. I think it will be close everywhere. On the feet, I would expect both guys to land strikes at a similar pace and I don’t think either has much knockout power, so I would expect a close decision if it stays standing. On the ground, I think Smolka should have a slight edge because he is the one who is more likely to go for takedowns and land on top. He does love taking the fights to the ground and having wild grappling matches, and Schnell is solid on the mat as well, so he may oblige. I just think this will be a fun fight that likely lasts 15-minutes and I will take Smolka to get it done by split decision in a fight where we don’t complain who wins either way.
I do have interest in this fight for DraftKings because Smolka fights tend to score high. We could have a lot of grappling points from this fight and my preferred play of the two is Smolka. He should be the one that is looking for takedowns and I think he has a much higher ceiling. Schnell could win the fight and not score highly at all, but I don’t see Smolka having a 50-60 point win if he gets it done. I expect Smolka to look for takedowns early and he is great at racking up advance points. He could score 100 in a decision win where I think Schnell would need to keep this fight standing and win a striking based fight for him to win a decision. Either guy could get a sub finish, but I lean Smolka to get his hand raised.
Winner – Louis Smolka via Split Decision
Jeff Hughes $9,300 vs Maurice Greene $6,900
Jeff Hughes
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 253
Reach: 77”
Gym: Strong Style Fight Team
From: Ohio
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 55
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -220
Jeff Hughes vs Maurice Greene is a rematch of a fight for the LFA HW title. Jeff Hughes won the first matchup and is riding a 4-fight winning streak. Maurice Green is stepping in for Daniel Spitz on short notice & looking to get one back. Green is 1-0 in the UFC and participated in TUF 28. He will have the more UFC experience in this matchup. Jeff Hughes is a tough fighter, but not very athletic. He has hard low kicks & a good overhand right. He actually has pretty good boxing & hand speed. He will throw nice one-twos, and hook combinations. He will throw a nice right hook to a one-two combination. He will throw nice lead uppercut, left hook combos. He will throw a nice right hook, overhand left combination. In the first fight, Hughes was able to continuously get inside & back Green to the cage and really dominated the fight. He struggled a bit in the first round to deal with the length & athleticism of Greene, but that was really it. Hughes is very good at throwing in combination against the cage. He will mix in spinning back fists & uppercuts. He throws a ton of volume for a heavyweight and is well conditioned. He trains with Stipe Miocic, so he has a great training partner to work with. Hughes isn’t a huge power guy, but it is HW & he has 4 KO/TKOs. He has a strong chin but was TKO’d in his one loss.
Hughes is a grinder & likes to work against the cage & in top position. He was able to consistently back Greene to the cage land big uppercut & overhand combinations while mixing in takedowns. He has good body lock entities. In top position he will wear on guys with short shots & has solid control. He can try to pass too quickly and get swept at times. Hughes was able to easily defend all the submission attempts of Greene on the ground & exhausted him. Hughes isn’t a submission threat himself & just has one in his career. He has never been submitted. Hughes doesn’t need to change anything from the first fight. He needs to get inside, get Greene backed to the cage, throw boxing combos to get the takedown and beat him up. Greene was able to get a submission off his back in his last match, so he needs to mind his P’s & Q’s. This is Hughes first UFC fight, but he has to be confident taking on an opponent he’s already soundly defeated.
Maurice Green
Age: 32
Height: 6’7
Weight: 259
Reach: 82”
Gym: The Performance Compound
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 95
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +180
Maurice Greene is an interesting guy with a great frame for the division. He is 6’7 with an 82” reach, and fairly athletic. He has a solid jab & throws hard body kicks. He will throw tight one-twos down the middle. He will throw front kicks to the body. He will throw a one-two to a body kick. He has good head kicks & will throw front kicks to the head. He throws nice straight right, left uppercut combinations. He likes to throw a lot of lead uppercuts. He has nice lead elbows & knees. He will try to close the distance with flying knees & lead elbows when fighters are against the cage. He tends to drop his right hand when he throws a left straight or jab, and Hughes was able to capitalize on that. He seemed to not have the power to hurt Hughes & Hughes was able to walk through his shots. When Greene gets hurt he doesn’t move his feet & just shells up. Greene doesn’t have big power & just has one career KO/TKO. Greene does a lot of reacting & gets very defensive when fighters attack him. He waits for his opponents once he slows down & can get picked apart. He has fought in Glory and was knocked out twice. He was hit with a big two-piece combination against Juan Espino & dropped. He has a questionable chin in my opinion even though he’s never been finished by strikes in MMA.
Greene is strong in the clinch & looks improved in that aspect. He has some nice knees to the body & will go to the head. He will throw nice elbows from the Muay Thai clinch. Greene is a poor wrestler and not a great grappler. He is long, so he has a somewhat dangerous guard. In the first fight with Hughes, he had some grappling success in Round 1. He was able to get in on a body lock. He got an over-under, controlled a wrist & threw some hard knees to the body. He was able to thwart off a few takedown attempts and cut Hughes with some nice elbows. He didn’t seem to have huge power in the elbows to me. He was taken down at will by Hughes & had no get-up game to speak of. He was able to get a couple sweeps, and even took top position, but couldn’t hold it. He does have a hard guard to pass & will throw elbows off his back, and attack with submissions. He has fairly quick triangle & armbar transitions. In the first fight with Hughes, he had very little success off his back & got beat up. He was exhausted by the middle of the second round & taking this fight on short notice you have to wonder about the gas tank. Greene on TUF was very undisciplined & smoked cigarettes which ruins your cardio. Greene’s best chance to win this fight is early, IMO. He needs to start fast, try to stay long and take Hughes out. He needs to let his shots go more & keep the center of the cage. He needs to get the jab & straight punches going. When Hughes closes the distance, Maurice has to make him pay in the clinch, throw hard knees, hard elbows & try to take Hughes out.
This is a rematch from a non-UFC fight that took place almost a year ago. In that fight, Hughes won a 5-round unanimous decision. Hughes is a training partner of former Heavyweight champion, Stipe Miocic, so I would image he would improve more fight to fight than a guy like Greene would. With this being a 3-round fight and these Heavyweights less likely to gas, I have to lean with Hughes to get the job done. I expect him to box Greene up on the feet and land a few takedowns to earn top control time while landing some good ground and pound.
I think this is a solid GPP fight to target. My preferred play is Hughes, but I will have some shots on Greene for sure. If Greene wins, it is most likely by a finish and at $6.9k that probably puts him on that $25k lineup. I want some chances if that happens. However, I will have much more Hughes because I think he wins and I think he can land takedowns and GNP. He is a solid pivot away from JDS and if both fights go to decision then I think even in 3-rounds he could outscore JDS. I don’t love this fight for cash games, but I think Hughes is playable there. I just get nervous playing heavyweights in cash. This is likely a fight I will have in at least half my GPPs though and I want over 30% Hughes and to be overweight to the field on him.
Winner – Jeff Hughes via Unanimous Decision
Grant Dawson $8,700 vs Julian Erosa $7,500
Grant Dawson
Age: 25
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: Glory MMA & Fitness
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -170
This is an interesting fight. Grant Dawson is a young prospect making his UFC debut coming off a win on the DWCS. He will be facing Julian Erosa, who is coming off a brutal knock out at the hands of Devonte Smith. Erosa has been knocked out in all 3 of his UFC fights. Grant Dawson is fairly well rounded, but still green on the feet. He likes to keep heavy pressure on opponents, and he usually opens up throwing a lot of kicks. He will throw front & round kicks to the body. He has a decent jab. He has good long right hooks. He will throw side hooks in combination, while mixing in uppercuts. He is good at slipping a punch & landing a left or right hook or overhand. He will also attack the body off slips. He will throw nice high kicks. When he is the faster fighter he will dominate opponents because he can slip and counter with strikes or get a double leg. He is quick & cuts fighters off well, but he holds his hands super low & his chin is straight up in the air. He is super open to being hit & has been TKO’d before. When he doesn’t have a speed advantage or has an opponent, who can throw tight, straight shots down the middle he struggles. He will walk through shots with reckless abandon & has shown a good chin, but it’s a risky style. The forward pressure does wear opponents down though, and he’s able to drown them once he gets them on the ground. He has 3 KO/TKOs all due to G&P. In his one loss, he was finished with elbows to the head when he was in on a double leg against the cage. Dawson just needs to use his striking to close the distance in this match. I feel if he does catch Erosa clean he could hurt him, but on the ground, he has less of chance of getting hurt.
He is a very good grappler and much better grappler than striker in my opinion. He has great timing on his double legs & sets them up with his strikes very well. When he gets on top, he goes to work immediately & rains down big ground & pound. He does a great job of posturing & landing big straight punches & hammer fists. He does a great job of wearing his opponents down, passing and taking dominant positions. He will mount & throw big ground & pound until opponents give their back. He has good rear naked chokes & back control he will flatten opponents out & soften them up with shots before sinking in the chokes. He is a bit of a rear naked choke specialist. He has 5 career RNC’s. He will attack with d’arces & anacondas. He has great cardio & once he gets one takedown he usually severally diminishes his opponent. He has 9 career submissions & has never been submitted. If he gets this fight to the mat I see him having good success. He should look to use his striking to get inside & get takedowns. If he can get into top position & land hard ground & pound he could put Erosa out. I also feel once he lands a few takedowns, he could open up with his striking & potentially catch Erosa with a big shot off a slip. If he can land a clean one on Erosa, there is always that possibility Erosa will go to sleep.
Julian Erosa
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 74.5”
Gym: Yakima MMA
From: Washington
UFC Record: 0-3
Fight Matrix: 89
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +150
Julian Erosa has had a rough go in the UFC. He has been knocked out cold in all 3 UFC fights and needs a win here. A loss would most likely mark the last UFC fight of his MMA career. He is 29 & if he wants to make a go of it he needs to get on a winning streak now. Erosa is a long, lanky fighter with decent long-range striking skills. He has a solid jab & good left hook. He will throw jabs to the body. He will throw outside low kicks. He has nice front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to the body to a jab combination. He has nice round kicks to the head. He does a good job of making the kick appear it’s going low & then throwing it to the head. He likes to throw lead uppercuts. He will attack the body with left hooks & straight punches. He will throw flying knees when he backs opponents against the cage. He is a flat-footed striker & likes to slowly walk opponents down but stands right in front of fighters. He holds his hands low & doesn’t move his head off center line and that’s why he has been knocked out so many times. He relies on absorbing shots & wearing opponents out with the forward pressure. He likes a brawl & will taunt and talk to his opponents after he lands or takes a good shot. He does have 10 knockouts in his career and is dangerous. He definitely has chin problems & been KO’d 4 times in his career. He was just knocked out unconscious 4 months ago and is coming back very quickly.
Erosa isn’t an active grappler & will rarely initiate takedowns. He definitely will be trying to use his wrestling in reverse in this match to keep it standing. His takedown defense is not very good. He stands tall & straight in the air, so fighters can get on his legs easily. He will occasionally get double under hooks & get into top position himself. He is harder to takedown with body locks & against the cage than in the open mat. He is long & utilizes that to attack with chokes. Off his back, he has decent get-ups, but he gives up his back. He will attack from full guard with triangles & armbars & even omaplatas. He is not bad & has quite a few triangle finishes. Erosa has 9 career submissions, but mostly vs low-level fighters. When he hurts fighters, he will jump on submissions. He has good rear naked chokes. I would be very surprised to see him tap out Dawson. Erosa has been never been submitted. Erosa should try to use forward movement, throw those front kicks to the body, head kicks and straight punches. He is going to have a chance to snipe Dawson & KO him due to Dawson’s style.
Erosa has been knocked out in both of his UFC fights and is still searching for his first UFC win. In this match, they gave him a guy who is more of a grappler, so I don’t think it is likely he gets knocked out a 3rd time. He should be the slightly better striker and is the more experienced fighter. Dawson will be making his UFC debut in this fight and he will be looking to get this fight to the ground. 9 of his 12 wins are by submission and that is what he will look to win within this spot as well. I really haven’t been impressed with what I have seen from Erosa, so I am going to lean with Dawson to get the win here by submission. It is not a super confident pick in Dawson, but more of a fade of Erosa.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Dawson, but I will be taking shots on both sides of this fight. I think Dawson is in play in all formats and I want to be overweight on him in GPPs. However, I like the price tag and experience of Erosa and he could pull off the upset. He isn’t somebody I want a lot of exposure to, but at least 1 lineup or 2, even if it is more of a hedge to my Dawson lineups. I do like the grappling upside from Dawson though and that is why I want to have a decent amount of exposure to him.
Winner – Grant Dawson via 2nd round Submission
Yana Kunitskaya $8,900 vs Marion Reneau $7,300
Yana Kunitskaya
Age: 29
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
Yana Kunitskaya vs Marion Reneau is a good fight. It is an up and comer vs veteran matchup. Marion Reneau is 41 years old still doing the damn thing. She was on the best run of her career, being unbeaten in 4 UFC fights, but had her streak snapped by Cat Zingano in her last fight. This will be her 10th UFC fight, and she has a big experience advantage here. Yana Kunitskaya is 1-1 in the UFC. She was basically given a suicide mission in her first UFC fight taking on Cris Cyborg on short notice. She was up a weight class and fought for the title in her first UFC fight. She was able to win her first UFC fight at BW via decision against Lina Lansberg & will be looking to build on that. Kunitskaya is a big, athletic girl for the division. She has a quick jab & nice front kick to the body. She will jab to the body & has nice right hooks. She will throw lead left hooks. She will throw round kicks to the body. she will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. She will also throw spinning back fists. When she throws her punches, she drops her hands & can get hit clean. She can get hit with straight punches & overhands. She seems very timid once she gets hit & was decimated by Cyborg. She does a lot of reaching for the clinch instead of setting up her entries with shots. If she does that often in this match, she is going to be made to pay for it. Kunitskaya has 7 KO/TKOs overall. She has a fairly good chin & has just been finished one time by Cyborg.
Kunitskaya is a much better grappler than striker & very physically strong. She is very good in the clinch. She will land hard knees to the body & elbows. She has good control against the cage & will win rounds by landing short shots and keeping control. She does a good job of getting a far side under hook & dumping her opponent right into side control. She will look to get to the crucifix position & looks for punches & elbows. She has good head & arm throws & body locks. She has a nice low single as well. She keeps heavy pressure on top. She does a good job of pressure passing to side control & jumping on the back when opponents try to stand up. She isn’t great at securing position on the back & usually, her opponents are able to escape to the feet. When she was put on her back by Tonya Evinger she showed a very nice bottom game. She is very aggressive with her guard and will attack with not only elbows but submissions. She has a nasty armbar that she caught Tonya Evinger within their first fight. She does a great job of when she goes for an armbar, she hooks your leg, and then if she cannot get the armbar, she will start to attack with a heel hook, or sweep to top position. She is very calm on her back and doesn’t take much damage if she is in her guard. Being so aggressive does come with risks, if she cannot get the submission or sweep, fighters are able to transition to strong positions, such as Tonya Evinger being able to survive the submission attempts and then ultimately take the back and get a rear naked choke. Kunitskaya only has one career submission & has been submitted two times. Kunitskaya is going to want to push Reneau against the cage & land clinch strikes. I do think she can take her down, she just has to be careful in Marion’s guard if she does. Striking at a distance could be an issue for Yana and I could see her getting pieced up if she can’t get inside.
Marion Reneau
Age: 41
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: MMA Gold Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 5-3-1
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-1-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +150
Marion Reneau is looking to bounce back here after her loss to Cat Zingano. Reneau is a better striker & more fluid with her hands. Reneau is a very good athlete, light on her feet, with solid speed. I do feel she has lost a little explosiveness over the years, but not much. She seems to need a little bit to warm up. She starts slow, but when she finds her rhythm puts out a good output. She has a nice jab & good straight punch combination. She will jab to the body. She has nice leg & front kicks. She will throw a nice lead left hook. She will throw a one-two left hook combination. She has a very accurate right hook & nice overhand right. She does a good job of feinting & using false starts to land her overhand right. She will throw a front kick to the body to a head kick combination. She has solid head kicks. She will close the distance with hard, straight punch combinations. She has power & good speed for the division. She is almost 42 years old & one of these performances, I imagine we will see her just not have it anymore, but I don’t see any sign of that here. She is going to be the better striker in this matchup, and I feel her feints, jabs & straight/overhand rights will give Kunitskaya problems. I think if Reneau can land a few shots on Yana in a row she could get her in desperation mode. Her striking actually looked very good to me against Cat Zingano. She was just a bit too over aggressive when she hurt Zingano & allowed her to take her down. She did get her leg beat up a bit against Zingano and I think that was a big factor in the fight. Reneau is extremely tough & will weather a storm and come back to win. She has solid power, she dropped Sarah McMann in her last win with a left hook, straight right-hand combination, and when she hurts opponents she will not let them off the hook and swarms. She has 5 KO/TKOs. She is very durable & has never been finished.
Marion Reneau is a dangerous submission artist & a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. She holds some impressive submission wins in the UFC over title challengers like Jessica Andrade & Sara McMann. She isn’t a great wrestler & not an active seeker of the takedown, doing most of her work on the ground off her back. She doesn’t have the best takedown defense & can be taken down. Reneau did a good job early in her last fight of pushing Cat Zingano against the cage & throwing pretty nasty elbows & knees to the body. She was able to stand up multiple times from bottom & her guard is very good. She has dexterous legs & is able to recover & keep guard very well. She is always looking to bring her guard high & attack with triangles, armbars & elbows. She does a good job of breaking her opponent’s posture by pushing on the head & throwing frame elbows, then quickly throwing up the triangle. She does a good job of using the triangle to move into mount & will attack the triangle armbar. She says she can hold the triangle for 7 minutes & when she gets it locked up she will stay in that position for the rest of the round doing damage with elbows if she can’t finish. She had Sara McMann in the triangle for over 2 minutes. When Reneau sweeps to top position she is super aggressive. She will attack with heavy ground & pound and loves to take the back and flatten opponents out. She finished her wins against Milana Dudieva & Talita Bernardo with G&P. Reneau is a finisher and has finished her last 4 UFC wins. She has 3 career submissions. It seems like when her fights go to decision they don’t tend to go her way. Even in fights I thought she clearly won against Ashlee Evans-Smith & Bethe Correira, the judges didn’t agree. Reneau has good cardio & will push for the finish even in the final seconds. She is definitely the more dangerous fighter in my opinion, and more likely to finish. Reneau should look to keep this fight standing & start quickly. She should try to throw hard straight & overhand rights in combinations and try to catch Yana as she’s backing up. Her one-twos will also be effective. Kunitskaya tends to back up straight to the cage & drop her hands when she gets pressured. I feel if Kunitskaya is in Marion’s guard, Marion could possibly be the busier fighter with her elbows and submission attempts.
I have to lean with the younger upcoming fighter in Kunitskaya in this fight. Reneau is a solid fighter and well-rounded as well. She is just 41 years old now and can’t fight at the highest level for too much longer. I do expect this fight to be close, but I think Reneau will need to keep this fight standing and win a boxing match to get it done. I just think Yana will go for a lot of takedowns and I think if she can keep top control when she gets them, then that will help her win a decision.
On DraftKings, Yana is my preferred play. I like the grappling upside from her and I do expect her to land multiple takedowns in order to get her hand raised from a judge’s decision. She scored 97 DK points in her last fight with 5 takedowns and if she can repeat that performance at $8.9k, then that could put her on the optimal lineup. I also don’t think she will be highly owned, so I like that about her as well. I think both fighters are playable in cash games though because I do expect this to go all three rounds and if that is the case then they both have solid floors. I don’t see Reneau having a 100-point upside in this matchup, but I think Yana can hit that and I will have her in a good number of lineups. I might fade Reneau in GPPs because I think other fighters in that range have higher upside, but if you want to play her then I wouldn’t talk you out of it.
Winner – Yana Kunitskaya via Unanimous Decision
Anthony Rocco Martin $9,200 vs Sergio Moraes $7,000
Anthony Rocco Martin
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: ATT
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -200
Tony Rocco Martin is one of the most underappreciated and underrated fighters in the UFC. He is 3-0 since moving to WW and won 6 out of 7 UFC fights. He will be taking on The Panther, Sergio Moraes, who is another underrated fighter with an 8-2-1 UFC record. He has won 8 of his last 10 fights including two in a row. Tony Martin is a beast. He is a fighter I have long pinpointed as a future contender and he looks to be hitting his stride. He is a long fighter, and always measuring opponents on the feet. He likes to stay at his distance and throw nice jabs and straight right hands. He has super heavy low leg kicks, really hurting the lead leg of Jake Matthews in their last fight. His straight right hand is accurate and fast, and he can catch fighters as they close the distance repeatedly. He has a nasty head kick and does a great job of noticing which side his opponents are slipping his right hand and following with a head kick. He likes to throw counter uppercuts when fighters crash the distance to try to make them hesitant to shoot. He knocked Ryan Laflare out with a nasty head kick, and it’s a very dangerous technique. His distance control is awesome, and he is always reading and staying at his own range. He is a very measured fighter, and he will very rarely get out of position or overextend himself. He has strong inside-outside leg kicks and stays busy with those as well. He likes to lean out of the way of shots and return with powerful one-twos, and his sharpness makes opponents get into a defensive shell. I feel he is going to have a major striking advantage against Sergio Moraes. Moraes doesn’t set up his blitz attacks, and he needs to disguise when he is closing the distance much better in this fight. He only has the one career knockout, but he has steadily been improving his striking, and he definitely is a dangerous striker now. He has a great chin and a lot of confidence in it. He has never been finished with strikes.
Tony Martin is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and improving with his wrestling defense. He has great distance control on the feet and does a great job of not letting fighters get inside on him where they can get in on his legs or clinch up with him. He showed great clinch technique in his last win, digging strong double under hooks, pushing the much bigger Laflare to the cage and disengaging. He has been susceptible to being grinded out in the past, but I think he was diminished at 155 lbs and is much harder to take down at 170. He has great takedown defense against the cage, he will get very wide with his stance when fighters attempt doubles, and he will attack with a kimura lock. He has nice kimuras sweeps off his back also and finished Fabricio Camois with a kimura. When Martin gets on top he is very strong. He has good ground and pound and likes to stay heavy and pressure pass until he can take the back and get a rear naked choke. He has great back takes, and when he gets in top position he is hard to get up from under on. He has great kimuras, key locks & is a submission specialist. He will attack with darces and front chokes when opponents try to stand up, and if he gets on top of Moraes or if Moraes shoots a sloppy takedown, I really feel he has a chance at submitting him. He did a great job of denying a takedown of Matthews, quickly jumping on the back & ultimately transitioning to an anaconda choke and put him to sleep. Martin has been submitted twice himself in the UFC and has 9 submissions himself. He is coming off a big submission win in Australia against favorite Jake Matthews, and truly feels he is one of the best fighters in the world. A win for either guy here jumps them into the top 10 conversation, so this is a must win for Tony Martin at this point in his career. Martin is going to be the better striker IMO. He needs to keep the same game plan he has been using in his last two fights, use good lateral movement, and try to land his straight right hand, head kicks, and time uppercuts. He should chop the lead leg of Moraes with calf kicks. If he can defend takedowns, reverse and get on top of Moraes, I feel he has a chance at a submission also. I also think he can catch Moraes in a kimura or front choke if he shoots a sloppy takedown.
Sergio Moraes
Age: 36
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Evolucao Thai
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 8-2-1
Fight Matrix: 33
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +170
Sergio Moraes is a wild striker, but he is athletic and has good power. He will wing wide, looping hooks with both hands, and if they land he can hurt his opponent. He will throw a left hook, overhand right combination. He will wing counter left hooks. He will throw a straight right hand, left hook combination. He will almost move his head completely off-center line and wing a right hook. He will throw the hooks in combination & opponents have to respect the power. I do feel Moraes has opportunities to be successful in the striking because Rocco keeps his hands low & can get emotional. I do feel Moraes can get hurt himself as well though. He has nice round & front kicks to the body and will sneak a head kick in at the end of his combinations. He is fast and closes the distance quickly, but he doesn’t have a lot of variety in his striking. He will throw the occasional leg kick, but he doesn’t throw them very often. He has a good chin, but he has been knocked out twice. He only has one TKO himself.
Sergio Moraes is a multiple time Jiu-Jitsu world champion. We got to see him finally show some of it off in his last match against Ben Saunders. Moraes does not have great wrestling and will not go for takedowns much. In his last fight, he was much more diligent in looking for the wrestling. Instead of swinging wildly, he was calm early, moved, and then came in swinging to get a body lock and got the takedown. In round 2 he threw 0 strikes before catching a kick & bringing it to the mat again. He does a great job of keeping heavy top pressure in half guard. He will get a body lock position under half & puts himself in good position to pass to side control. He will methodically move to dominant positions and has great fundamental BJJ. He got a high mount against Ben Saunders & almost got an armbar in round 1. He has gotten a mounted triangle against Neil Magny. He got an arm triangle set up in the mount, moved to side control, cinched it up & submitted Ben Saunders. his match against Tim Means, he pulled guard when he was engaged in the clinch. When he is on his back, he will try to trap an arm and throw up a triangle, and he likes to get to deep half guard and sweep to top position. Opponents haven’t felt comfortable enough to stay in his guard and will stand up from the position and return to striking. He has questionable cardio, but a good game for winning decisions. He has had a knack of winning split decisions, and close fights over his UFC career, and has racked up an impressive record of 8-2-1. Moraes needs to throw winging overhands & hooks and try to catch Martin who can keep his head stationary and hands low. He also can have his chin a little high at times. I feel he needs to try to make it a brawl & then try to duck under and get it to the ground. He shouldn’t try to strike with Rocco much, and i feel he should look for the takedown like his last match. He throws a lot of volume & his big winging shots that make the crowd ooh and ahh which can influence the judges. Sergio Moraes has won some questionable decisions over his career due to fighting at home. He has won two split decisions and had a split draw in Brazil. Moraes is 6-1-1 in the UFC in Brazil & 1-1 in the USA. The last time he fought in the United States he was flatlined quickly by Kamaru Usman, and as we are in Kansas, I will just say we are not in Brazil anymore.
I think Moraes probably has the better Jiu-Jitsu in this matchup, but I think he will need to get the fight to the ground with him on top for him to have any real edge. I think Martin is the better striker and I think he has the better wrestling as well. I expect him to use that wrestling as defense to keep this fight on the feet where he will be the more active striker and throw the harder shots. I think he can land takedowns too if he wants, it is just much more dangerous on the ground than it is on the feet, in my opinion. I don’t see Martin getting the finish, but I think he should get a fairly clear decision, especially if this fight stays standing for 15-minutes.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is actually Moraes. I think he has higher upside for his salary and it will be much easier for him to pay off $7k than it will for Martin at $9.2k. Martin will need a finish at that salary and I don’t see that happening. If he wins a clear 30-27 decision, then he probably scores mid 70’s and at his price tag that won’t win anybody a GPP. I think he is a better cash game play than he is a GPP because I do feel good about him winning and he has a solid floor, I just don’t like his upside or salary. If Moraes can get the fight to the ground and get on top, maybe he can lock up a submission and that could put him on the optimal lineup. Either way, I think this fight makes for a better cash game fight than it does GPP fight.
Winner – Anthony Rocco Martin via Unanimous Decision
Omari Akhmedov $8,500 vs Tim Boetsch $7,700
Omari Akhmedov
Age: 31
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: ATT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 5-3-1
Fight Matrix: 77
Last Fought: 1 Year 3 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: -135
Omari Akhmedov is a tough Russian wrestler who throws heaters. He predominately uses his double leg and top control to win fights, but he does have power in both hands and throws looping dangerous hooks in the pocket. He has a very accurate left hook, straight right-hand combination. He will throw left & right hooks in the pocket full power and has no problem throwing down. His overhand right is powerful & usually what drops opponents. He was throwing a lot of heavy low kicks in his last match with Marvin Vettori. He will throw hard round kicks to the body as well. He has low output and is very open to being hit. He throws all his shots with full power and doesn’t care about defense. All his punches are wide, so opponents are able to catch him with nice tighter shots up the middle he doesn’t see coming. He has been hurt multiple times in the UFC. He does have great heart and becomes dangerous when opponents hurt him looking for the finish himself. He definitely needs to be careful here and try to avoid the brawl with a heavy-handed Boetsch. Akhmedov tends to slow down majorly in the third round. He has been finished twice by TKO in Round 3. He was also beat up badly in Round 3 after gassing in his last match losing 10-8 after winning the first two rounds and having to settle with a draw. He has 7 KO/TKOs himself and has been finished with strikes twice.
Akhmedov is another Dagestani wrestler that knows where his bread is buttered. He definitely will be active looking for the takedown in this fight, and if he finds it he will have success. Akhmedov does a great job of using his wild strikes to back opponents to the cage, ducking under and hitting a double leg. He also can make opponents feel like he is going to brawl with them in the center & doing the same. He is physically strong and will drive opponents to the cage & work from there. He has decent cage control & I see him trying to get takedowns early & often in this fight. When he does get opponents down, he doesn’t seem to have the best top control. Fighters are able to stand up from under him, and I feel that’s why he tires so much in Round 3. He will try to get to side control & get the crucifix position and has some good ground & pound. When opponents can defend a couple of his takedowns, he seems to get exhausted and just plants his feet, wings and eats punches. Akhmedov has 5 submissions, but none in his UFC career. He has been submitted one time by Gunnar Nelson. Akhmedov needs to get takedowns to be successful in this fight. He has to get Boetsch on his back, grind on him, slow him down and make it a boring fight. If he can’t get takedowns & gasses out, that’s a very bad proposition against a fighter like Boetsch. He took over a year off after his first middleweight bout, and maybe he will come in here looking better.
Tim Boetsch
Age: 38
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Irish
From: Maine
UFC Record: 10-9
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +115
The Barbarian has been putting it down for years, and he is a violent individual. He has some of the best come back knockouts in UFC history over Yushin Okami and Brad Tavares. Boetsch is a wrestler who likes to bang. He has huge knockout power and showed he is still adding more tools with a head kick knockout of Johny Hendricks. Tim Boetsch has a really nice right hand, he can land it from very odd angles, from short distances and still have big power with them. He does a good job of rolling while he punches and coming back up with more shots. He had a nasty short right hook KO of Brad Tavares and a big right hand to finish Rafael Natal. He uses heavy forward pressure and keeps his hands low, letting opponents try to hit him so he can come back with his own shots. He will throw nice front & round kicks to the body, and even has a head kick knock out of Johny Hendricks. His last 5 wins have all been by KO/TKO. He has 11 career KO/TKOs and has been finished with strikes 4 times himself.
Tim Boetsch is a serviceable grappler and needs to have his takedown defense on point here. Boetsch is very dangerous in short range & the clinch. He likes to get a hold of the back of the head & throw brutal uppercuts. He will also throw short punches & knees in the clinch. He is very physical and has nice body lock takedowns. He will use his whizzer to throw opponents around. He has decent trip takedowns as well. Boetsch has decently heavy hips and will shuck takedown attempts off with under hooks. Historically he has struggled with wrestlers and doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense. He will attack with guillotines to try to counter the takedown or create a scramble. On top, Boetsch will posture up & look for ground & pound but isn’t super dangerous. If he can get into a dominant position he does have good power, but he usually doesn’t finish with G&P. Off his back, he is not good. You can sense he is uncomfortable & his submission defense is terrible. He doesn’t do the proper things when opponents move into dominant positions and offers little to no submission defense. He was submitted very quickly in his last match with Antonio Carlos Jr. He has been submitted 5 times. Boetsch is going to want to keep this fight on the feet, deny the takedown attempts of Akhmedov and put the paws on him. He is going to be the much bigger fighter, and if he can stuff the takedowns, and drain Akhmedov, he could have success with his striking later on. I feel he is the better, more powerful striker, and if he can keep it on the feet 3 rounds, he has a chance at finding the KO.
This is a matchup between two slower paced strikers with heavy hands. They both have decent wrestling as well, but I expect that to be a wash here and I think this fight plays out on the feet for as long as it lasts. I think this will be a somewhat boring fight if there isn’t a finish, but as hard as these guys throw I will pick this to end inside the distance. Either guy could get a knockout, but I will lean with the younger fighter who has only been knocked out twice. I think Akhmedov will be the 5th person to (T)KO Boetsch and he will be my pick by 2nd round KO after a boring first round with not many strikes thrown. If there isn’t a knockout, I don’t see either fighter scoring well on DK.
On DraftKings, Akhmedov is my preferred play of the two, but I think a fade of the fight might be best. I am picking him by KO, but I can totally see a boring decision happening here and that is what is scaring me away from this fight. I will have a shot or two on both guys for their KO power, likely more on Akhmedov, but most of my lineups will just be fading this fight. I don’t care for this fight at all in cash games, I think you are going to invest in this fight then you are hoping for the knockout, so GPP only for me.
Winner – Omari Akhmedov via 2nd round (T)KO
Beneil Dariush $9,000 vs Drew Dober $7,200
Beneil Dariush
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 72”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 9-3-1
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -200
Beneil Dariush vs Drew Dober is a very intriguing fight. Dariush has fought the who’s who of the UFC’s LW division and had mixed success. He has wins over high-level fighters such as Tony Martin, Carlos Diego Ferrería, Jim Miller, Michael Johnson, James Vick, and Rashid Magomedov. He has losses to top 15 fighters as well, but he is definitely the much more accomplished fighter in terms of resume. Drew Dober has quietly turned into a dark horse at 155 lbs. He has drastically improved over his UFC tenure, and now won 3 in a row. A win here for either fighter gets them in that top 15 picture, so this is a big fight. Dariush is a good pressure striker. He has a nice jab and a strong body kick. He has a nice straight left hand and a good left hook. He closes distance very well with his punches. He likes to use a jab or straight left hand to head kick combination. He has nice superman punches and spinning back fists. He is more of a counter striker, and he likes to anticipate shots, block and return. He has nice step in knees to the body. He has big power but only 3 finishes via strikes. Since moving to Kings MMA he’s much more powerful. He has a questionable chin. He got flatlined very badly against Edson Barboza, and most recently knocked out in less than 30 seconds. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO. He bounced back in a dominating way in his last match and has to have more confidence coming in here.
Dariush is a very strong grappler. He is a BJJ competitor and black belt. He is good in the clinch, he does an excellent job of getting the Muay Thai plum and landing big knees. He does a great job of digging under hooks and is strong with his clinch control against the cage. He has strong clinch takedowns and will shoot doubles against the cage. He was able to dominate Thiago Moises by controlling him against the cage & taking him down in his last fight. He is an elite BJJ player and on top is very dangerous. He throws heavy elbows and huge ground & pound. He also is a black belt and has won the No Gi World Championships as a blue, purple, and brown belt. He is very hard to take down or control in the clinch himself but does get tired in grappling heavy matches and can start to get grinded out. Dariush has 6 submissions. He has good arm triangles and rear naked chokes. He had been submitted one time in his career. He is solid off his back, attacking with omaplatas, sweeps and is active with subs. Dariush needs to close the distance, get inside and land those bombs. He should also work in the clinch against the cage and gain control time. Frank Camacho was able to take Dober down several times, and it’s something I feel Dariush could do as well. The stand-up is 50/50 to me, and grappling is the path of least resistance.
Drew Dober
Age: 30
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team Elevation
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 6-4-1
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +170
Drew Dober is a huge 155er, and a good southpaw striker. He is very powerful, explosive, and likes to stay light on his feet, dart in, land shots and get out. He has hard, low leg kicks & body kicks. His legs are huge, and he can generate a lot of torque on his punches & kicks. He is dangerous & someone Dariush has to respect the power of. He doesn’t throw in combination much, usually being one and done. He has a nice straight left hand, and good left hook when he gets trapped near the cage, he will double and triple up on it to fight his way off. His left hook has big power. Dober has gotten much better at being less obvious when he comes in and quicker with his punches and kicks. He keeps a very heavy pace on opponents, and while he doesn’t throw in combination he will throw a ton of shots. He attacks the legs, body, head, and will slowly break down his opponents. He is hittable himself and doesn’t move his head much. He is very durable & able to eat shots and return. If this fight becomes a war, I trust Dober’s chin to hold up more than Dariush’s. Dober has 4 career KO/TKOs and has been finished by strikes just one time himself.
Dober is a decent wrestler. He came into the UFC almost purely a striker, but has put a lot of work in. He showed good fight IQ in his last match vs Tuck, getting takedowns after the stand-up started to get a bit dicey. He will go for double legs, along with trying to get in the clinch, get double underhooks and control opponents on the cage. He is heavy on top but doesn’t do a lot of damage and not a submission threat. He will control on top, advance position & do just enough to not get stood up. He has pretty solid takedown defense, but he was taken down by trips in the clinch against Frank Camacho. Off his back, he has decent defense but can struggle to get back to his feet. I feel if he gets taken down by Dariush he most likely won’t get up. Dober does have 8 career submissions, but it would be pretty crazy to see him submit an accomplished black belt. He has been submitted himself, twice. He has very good cardio and a strong chin. He ate a lot of big shots against Camacho, who is a KO artist. Dober should try to land the higher volume of shots and the heavier shots to win the fight. He needs to go forward, walk Dariush down & keep the volume high. He needs to make Dariush work and tire him out. If he can deny a few takedown attempts, we may start to see Benny huff & puff and Dober can take over.
I expect Dariush to be the better fighter everywhere in this matchup. My only worry with him is his chin. He has been brutally knocked out three times in his UFC career and the chin doesn’t improve with time. I think as long as he can stay conscious here he will win this fight. I think he can win a decision on the feet or the ground, and I also think he can lock up a submission as well. I do expect him to resort to his grappling though and if that is the case then I think he gets a dominant win here. It could be by unanimous decision or submission, but I will lean with the submission and I think he gets it done in the 2nd or 3rd round.
On DraftKings, Dariush is my preferred play and I like him in all formats. I think Dober is a decent GPP only play since he can test the chin of Dariush, but I will probably just fade him personally unless I make 1 hedge lineup. Dariush knows he doesn’t have a great chin and he knows he is going to have an edge on the ground, so that is where I expect him to take this fight and I think he does it early and often. On the ground, I think he dominates and eventually locks up a choke. I want to be overweight on Dariush here and I am hoping that his chin doesn’t fail on me.
Winner – Beneil Dariush via 2nd round Submission
Blagoy Ivanov $8,400 vs Ben Rothwell $7,800
Blagoy Ivanov
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 257
Reach: 73”
Gym: Xtreme Couture MMA
From: Bulgaria
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -125
Blagoy Ivanov vs Ben Rothwell is a battle of two middling HWs looking to get back into contention. Ben Rothwell has been off for over two years and coming off a USADA suspension. Blagoy Ivanov is only 0-1 in the UFC, and Rothwell has a wealth of experience over him. Ivanov is a striker, with solid power. He isn’t very athletic & a bit of a plodder. He will slowly walk opponents down & look to land heavy punches. He also likes to circle the cage & try to walk opponents into his power. He has a nice jab & good straight right hand. He will throw a double jab, right hook combo. He has a good straight left hand, right hook. He is deceptively fast if opponents stay in the pocket with him, he can close distance fairly quickly. His overhand right is powerful. He will throw lead left hooks & jab left hooks. He will close the distance with 2-3 overhand or right hooks in a row. Ivanov isn’t the most explosive fighter & is slow with his foot speed. He has very powerful low kicks, but rarely throws them & has a short reach so he can get potshotted from the outside. He got picked apart with jabs & straight punches against JDS and couldn’t get inside. Ivanov has 6 career KO/TKOs & is very durable never being finished by strikes.
Ivanov hasn’t shown his grappling game in recent fights, but he does have a decent amount of submissions. He never attempted a takedown against Junior Dos Santos. He is good at catching kicks & dragging opponents to the mat. He doesn’t have great top control, but his ground & pound is heavy when he lands. He has very good takedown defense & will attack with guillotines & front chokes. He has 3 in his career. He has 6 submissions overall & was submitted one time by Alexander Volkov. I don’t see him trying to takedown Rothwell at all. He has questionable cardio & got very tired against JDS, and wrestling would just wear him out. He is extremely tough & is always in the fight. Ivanov needs to let his hands go more here & go forward more. He can’t allow Rothwell to just walk him down all night. Rothwell is hittable & Blagoy needs to catch Rothwell with a big shot and hurt him to win IMO.
Ben Rothwell
Age: 37
Height: 6’4
Weight: 264
Reach: 80”
Gym: Rothwell MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 years 11 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +105
Ben Rothwell is a similar type fighter to Ivanov. He will be the significantly larger man & have a 7” reach advantage. Rothwell is very big, very durable & when he hits people they feel it. Rothwell has a very awkward style. He stands almost square in his stance & due to that is powerful from both sides. He will switch stances as well & his movement is very hard to get a beat on. He likes to keep his hands open & extended due to his reach. He is able to hand fight & get openings for his shots. He has a pretty nice jab. He will throw nice straight punches & powerful hooks. He closes the distances with straight punches nicely. He will land nasty right hooks to the body. He will throw the right hook to the body a couple of times, and then throw uppercuts to the head. He has very nice uppercuts. He likes to lean towards the right a lot even as he walks forward, keeping his head totally off center line. He throws everything into his shots & throws hammers. He will throw heavy low kicks & front kicks to the body. Rothwell has a tricky head kick & has a KO via head kick. Something that will benefit him in this fight is his forward pressure & volume. He will almost undoubtedly be the one going forward and throwing more strikes. He has the ability to take ungodly punishment & come back to get the finish. He was getting beat up badly by Overeem before turning the tables with a big KO.
Rothwell is not a wrestler either, but I do think he’d be the more likely of the two to grapple. He will try to close the distance and get double under hooks. He will get the single collar clinch & throw nice uppercuts there. I haven’t seen him get in the top position very much lately, but I imagine with his size & power he’d be heavy on top and hit hard. He has very good takedown defense & a super dangerous Gogo choke. He is the only fighter to ever submit Josh Barnett, and it’s dangerous to shoot on Rothwell. Rothwell is very odd to fight. He is extremely durable & moves very awkwardly. I see him being the more active fighter & the one going forward more. He just needs to walk Blagoy down, keep his output high and outwork Ivanov. His reach will be a big factor and if he mixes in leg kicks while hand fighting and staying at his range, he will be successful.
Rothwell is coming off a loss to Junior Dos Santos as well as a PED suspension. This will be his first fight in almost 2 years and he is now 37 years old. He is a very well-rounded vet with 46 professional fights, and he has knockout power as well as a strong submission game. Ivanov is also a well-rounded fighter who is coming off a loss to JDS as well. Neither guy is super active and they both land under 3 strikes per minutes. However, it does only take one shot from these Heavyweights to end the fight. I am worried about how Rothwell will look coming off this suspension but from what I have seen of the two, I have to lean with him to get the win. I think he will be the more active fighter, I think he will land the harder shots, and I think he can get a submission if it hits the ground as well. I think this line should be flipped and I am going to lean with the underdog to pull this one out.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Rothwell. As long as he hasn’t diminished over the last two years, and not being on steroids, I think he is the better fighter from what I have seen. I also think he will be the more active fighter and more likely to get a finish on the feet or the ground. The line for Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is currently -140 so both sides are worth taking shots on, but I will be light on Blagoy. I don’t mind being heavy on Rothwell, but I will want to fade this fight in probably half my lineups. If this fight doesn’t end inside the distance, then I don’t see how the winner scores highly and I do expect both sides to have a decent amount of ownership. I would guess I have about 30-35% Rothwell and maybe 5-10% Ivanov in my lineups. It is definitely a better GPP fight than cash game target, but Rothwell would be the only one I would even consider in cash games because he is the underdog and I am picking him to win.
Winner – Ben Rothwell via 3rd round Submission
Tim Means $8,800 vs Niko Price $7,400
Tim Means
Age: 35
Height: 6’2
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Fit NHB
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 8-5-1
Fight Matrix: 49
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -200
Tim Means vs Niko Price has all the makings of an action-packed war. Both of these fighters have been extremely fun to watch over their UFC runs, and this could be the FOTN. Niko Price is coming off a brutal knock out loss, while Tim Means is coming off a first-round TKO. A win here for Means would steady his career again after an up and down run lately. A loss would probably indicate Means is done as a top 15 fighter. For Niko Price, he needs to win badly. He has been finished in 2 of his last 4 fights and has taken a lot of damage. Price is the younger guy with less mileage, but I feel both fighters have taken punishment. Tim Means is a very sharp striker. He fights long but is also nasty in close range. Means has nice one-twos and front kicks to the body. He will throw one-twos & right straights to the body as well. He throws hard low & oblique kicks to the legs. He has a very accurate lead & counter left hook. He has a sharp counter right hook as well. He throws straight right, left uppercut combinations. He has a nice step in knee. He has good head movement and slips & rips very effectively. He will throw an uppercut, overhand left combinations. He has nice high kicks. He keeps a high volume of punches out there, doubling and tripling up on jabs. He does a good job of changing the speed of his punches and peppering fighters and mixing in faster more powerful punches. He wears fighters out with pressure. He has only been finished once by strikes and has 19 KO/TKOs.
Means is great in close. He is nasty in the dirty boxing range, he has slicing elbows, short hooks and uppercuts. He throws nice knees to the body. He does a great job of using under hooks to defend takedowns & put fighters on their backs. He will also attack with guillotines. He did that against Belal Muhammad & almost rolled into mount but was stopped by the cage. He has good double leg takedowns & got a body lock takedown in his last match. On top, he does a great job of posturing & throwing hard elbows & punches. He was able to takedown Ricky Rainey early & landed some brutal G&P for the finish. He tends to shoot takedowns when he gets hurt & can be submitted that way. He has good arm triangles but doesn’t look for submissions very much. Means has 4 career submissions. He has been submitted 4 times. Tim Means is a bit inconsistent. Some fights he looks great and others he can come out flat. He has to be confident coming off a quick finish & looking to make a statement here. Means is going to be the better, cleaner striker, and needs to exploit that. If he can keep Niko on the end of his jab & straight punches while backing him up, he will be successful. He needs to keep the volume high & not give Price the opportunity to get comfortable. Price thrives in chaos, and if Means can keep it technical & not get drawn into a brawl he will have success. When Price attempts takedowns he needs to make him pay. He should look to land hard knees & elbows in close. I do feel that he could get a takedown in this fight or reverse a Price takedown and get in top position. If he does I could see him having success with G&P.
Niko Price
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Futures MMA
From: Florida
UFC Record: 4-2-1
Fight Matrix: 72
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +170
Niko Price is a guy who has a bit of a screw loose. He is a crazy action fighter with brutal power. He has shown the ability to close the show with one shot. He has supreme confidence that he will find the knockout & even when things aren’t going his way he tends to turn the tables. Price has a nice jab and a nice straight right hand. He has hard leg kicks and a nice high kick. He will throw front kicks up the middle to the body & head. He has big power in his right hand. He is a bit flat-footed, but he has gotten better at using lateral movement and circling away. He doesn’t move his head and can be hit with sharp counters. He will get in his opponent’s face and really put the pressure on them if he sees they felt his shots and is a finisher. None of his UFC fights have seen the final bell. Price has 8 KO/TKOs & has short range power. He has only been KO/TKO’d once in his career, but he has taken a lot of damage and with his style, he relies on his chin. He has been rocked or dropped in a lot of his UFC fights, Alhasson, Brown, Luque, & Morono have all hurt him with shots. He has shown good recoverability, but eventually, he will start getting flatlined more.
Niko Price is a solid overall grappler & proven to be dangerous in all areas on the mat. I wouldn’t say he’s the greatest wrestler, and I feel Means may even have the wresting advantage, especially early. Price can be a little sloppy with his entries, especially his double legs. He has good double legs when he times them correctly, but he can shoot them from too far out at times & I feel Means may be able to reverse. He does a good job of using the singles & double to get his opponent against the cage, transitioning to a body lock & getting the takedown. He definitely is better at getting the takedowns in the clinch & against the cage. When he gets opponents down he likes to work quickly. He has strong G&P and will look for submissions. He has two submissions in the UFC. He does a great job of transitioning to the back mount & getting rear naked chokes. He also has an arm triangle victory over Brandon Thatch. He can be taken down himself, but he is extremely creative & dangerous off his back. He is the only fighter in UFC history to win via hammer fists from the bottom. He was able to trap Randy Brown’s head into place with the instep of his foot and landed some vicious Hammer fists, knocking Brown out cold. He was able to reverse George Sullivan with a omaplata in his last win & quickly transition to the rear naked choke. He did take some nice G&P shots vs Brown & was cut open with elbows against George Sullivan. He needs to be very careful not be sloppy in his wrestling in this fight because Means is a beast on top. If he allows Means to posture up & land G&P it could be a quick night for him. Means was able to dust Rainey with G&P his last time out and it has to have given him confidence. Price has 3 career submissions & has been submitted one time after being butchered on the feet by Vicente Luque. Price has good cardio & an unbreakable will. He is going to want to get inside, make this a brawl & then get Means on his back. We have seen the weakest area of Means game is working off his back. If Price can get into dominant positions against Means, he may be able to put him out with G&P or get the submission. Price is coming off getting knocked out brutally, but I don’t think it will affect his mental or fighting style. He is someone who is going to live by the sword and die by the sword and I don’t see his mentality changing. His chin could be weakened, so it’s something you have to keep an eye on. Price always has that power to put his opponent out too, and whenever he’s fighting I will be watching.
This should be an awesome fight. I think it could be a wild striking match that either guy could win via KO. I think Means will be the more technical and active striker and if he doesn’t get knocked out then he should win a clear striking match. I think Price’s best path to victory is taking this fight to the ground. If he can do that then he could win with ground and pound, or a submission, but it will make the fight much closer if it does go to a judge’s decision. I have gone back and forth on this pick, but I think I have to lean with the favorite. I think Means will have good enough takedown defense to keep this fight standing for the most part and I think that will lean to him picking Price apart for 3 rounds or picking up a late stoppage.
On DraftKings, I do like this fight a good bit and I will have lineups with each side. I do prefer Means of the two, but if you would rather go heavier on Price than I think that is fine. I like Price as a GPP only play because of his high ceiling and low-price tag, but I think Means is in play in all formats. I do think Means picks him apart on the feet and the only real worry is the power from Price or being taken down. If he is taken down, then I think he will be able to get back up and I don’t see him slowing down in this fight. I think the longer it goes the better he looks, and I want to be in line with the field or overweight on him. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably have Means in 3-4 and Price in 2.
Winner – Tim Means via 3rd round (T)KO
Curtis Millender $8,200 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos $8,000
Curtis Millender
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 78”
Gym: CSW
From: California
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 20
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: -125
Curtis Millender is 3-0 to start his UFC career & looking to break into the top 15. He is a long, dangerous striker with a lot of weapons. He is dangerous with everything, punches, kicks, knees, and elbows. Millender has great distance control and likes to pressure opponents, slowly slide out of range and time counters. He has a great jab, and strong leg kicks. He has a fast, straight right hand, and throws nice counter uppercuts, and left hooks. He has nasty kicks, great front & round body kicks. He is a very tricky striker and is always looking to set up a knee or a nasty high kick. He finished Thiago Alves with a nasty knee and had two TKO head kick finishes before that. His defense is nice, and he changes it up. He will use good slips and head movement at times to avoid shots and come back with counters. He does a good job of hand fighting and coming over the top with shots. He does a good job of staying patient and forcing opponents to come to him, so he can try to walk fighters into something. He stands very tall and almost square right in front of his opponents, which makes him dangerous from both sides, but also makes him easy to takedown and easy to clinch and push against the cage. He sometimes can get caught standing too tall with his hands low on the second or third punch in a combo and I think that’s were Zaleski could possibly catch him. He will throw some interesting techniques in close range like front elbows, and hammer fists. He has nasty step in knees to the head & body. He can get his knee to the target extremely fast. He seems to start slow & then pick it up as the fight continues. He lost the first round to Kevin Holland & Max Griffin before winning the decisions. He seems to have poor fight IQ when he has someone hurt. He rocked Kevin Holland badly & then awkwardly attempted a spinning attack that gave Holland his back. He dropped Thiago Alves with an uppercut in round one and walked away like he won, and ended up not getting the finish when he probably could have. He has 6 KO/TKOs and is a big, strong WW with a great chin never being finished by strikes.
Millender is an improving grappler and dangerous in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body, the head, and great elbows & uppercuts in close. He will throw a flurry of elbows & knees in the clinch and can hurt and finish fighters in that position. I still feel he can improve how he deals with forward pressure. He tends to stand too tall and will try to counter moving backwards, but if he doesn’t land, fighters are clinched up with him against the cage or taking him down. Max Griffin was able to land an overhand into a takedown and control Millender on his back rather easily. Millender doesn’t seem to have much off his back and just tries to control posture and not take damage. He did get a nice body lock takedown against Griffin, and if he can get on top he is dangerous. He will unload with a barrage of hammer fists and will attack with elbows to the body as well. He has great cardio and can go for 3 rounds easily. He was submitted twice in Bellator, but that was years ago. He has no career submissions. Millender needs to control distance and use a lot of head movement, parrying, rolling with punches & countering. If he can counter the hooks & uppercuts of Zaleski with shots he doesn’t see coming he could hurt him. He needs to go forward or use lateral movement to avoid being backed up to the cage & potentially taken down.
Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: CM System
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds +105
Zaleski Dos Santos is a warrior. He loves to bite down on the mouthpiece & go to war and he hits hard. He is very athletic & sneaky explosive. Zaleski has a nice jab & good inside leg kicks. He has a nice straight right hand & throws hard right hooks. He will throw jab, overhand right combos. He also will throw hard hook combos with both hands. He will rip the body with hard left hooks & straight rights. He will throw rear leg body kicks to a straight right-hand combination. He has good head kicks with body legs. His front leg is good. He has nice lead leg kicks, round & sidekicks to the body, and head kicks. He has nice capoeira kicks & KO’d Sean Strickland with a spinning heel kick. He will throw spinning heel kicks to the body as well. He is good at using lateral footwork to walk opponents into his kicks, hooks & overhands. Zaleski has back to back KO/TKOs & has won 6 UFC fights in a row. He has 14 KO/TKOs in his career. He has an amazing chin & recoverability. If both fighters hurt each other and this fight gets wild expect Zaleski to be the one left standing. He has never been finished in his career via strikes.
Zaleski is going to be the better grappler & I expect him to try to exploit that. He is good in the clinch, he has nice double under hooks and will land nasty knees to the body. He will throw nice elbows over the top. He has hard hook & uppercut combinations off the break. Zaleski is not a super active grappler, but I expect him to try to wrestle here. He has shown some decent timing on double & single legs but hasn’t finished well. He doesn’t have great drive on his shots. I do feel that if he trains to takedown Millender, he could get takedowns and I see him having an advantage on top. We haven’t seen his top game much, but he finished Strickland with some brutal hammer fists. He was able to drop Max Griffin & quickly take the back but didn’t keep the position long. He has attempted some tricky subs in the octagon like Peruvian neck ties. Zaleski has only two career submissions and has been submitted twice himself. He has fantastic cardio & an iron will. I think Zaleski is going to want to use his lateral movement to walk Millender into shots. He is fast in & out and he is going to want to throw in combination & try to catch Millender as he’s leaning back. I feel if he can get Millender to the cage or on the ground he will have an advantage.
This is another potential FOTN. Welterweight is so stacked that two monsters like Zaleski & Millender are not even ranked. These are two of the most fun, dynamic strikers to watch, and it should be a barn burner. Zaleski Dos Santos has been criminally underrated so far in his UFC tenure. He has won 6 consecutive fights, all being amazing fights, but hasn’t gotten the love or support of the organization. With a win here over Curtis Millender, the UFC won’t be able to ignore him any longer. Millender is 3-0 since joining the UFC and seems to be the fighter they are pushing. They gave him this Zaleski matchup on the night of his last win, and he has had ample time to prepare. The winner of this fight should be in line for a top 10 opponent in their next outing. This should be a fun and closely contested fight that takes places mainly on the feet. Both guys throw heavy strikes and I don’t see this going a 3-rounds if they fight at their usual pace of almost 10 strikes thrown per minute. I think if there are takedowns in this fight that it would be Millender landing them, but I would think that only happens if he gets rocked on the feet and needs time to recover. I was originally picking Millender as my pick to win, but today I changed my mind. I think the “tall-man defense” of Millender is going to catch up to him eventually and I think Dos Santos will be the first guy to knock him out. I am not super confident in this pick, and either guy who gets knocked out, but I think Dos Santos connects hard at some point and puts Millender away.
For a fight that I expect to stay standing, I have quite a bit of interest in this fight. I think it will be an action-packed fight and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is also the mid-range fight of the week, so I think a KO from either guy would have a good chance to put them on the optimal lineup. I like it even more because I am picking the underdog to get the knockout and I expect Millender to be the higher owned fighter. I will have this fight in more than half my lineups, but I will probably have at least double the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I think it is a better GPP fight than it is for cash games, but I think dos Santos is in play for cash since he is an underdog and I have him winning.
Winner – Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos via 2nd round (T)KO
Junior Dos Santos $9,400 vs Derrick Lewis $6,800
Junior Dos Santos
Age: 35
Height: 6’4
Weight: 239
Reach: 77”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 14-4
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -210
This is a great main event. Former UFC champion Junior Dos Santos has been looking good lately and riding a 2-fight win streak. He was able to get a knockout over a new breed fighter in Tai Tuivasa and will be taking on another here. Derrick Lewis is coming off his title loss to Daniel Cormier, but prior to that, he had won 9 of 10 UFC fights. Junior Dos Santos is one of the best HWs of all time. He has beaten fighters such as Stipe Miocic, Cain Velasquez, Fabricio Werdum, and Shane Carwin. He is a great boxer, and very fast with his hand speed for a HW. He has a nasty jab and will attack the body with it regularly. I see his jab being an integral part to his win here if he gets it, very similar to his Ben Rothwell match. He did a great job of working off his jab in that match after establishing it. After he bloodied Rothwell’s face he began feinting the jab and throwing overhand right and left hooks. He has a great counter left hook, and his counterpunching makes it hard for fighters to be super aggressive with Dos Santos. Dos Santos has nasty low leg kicks, he hurt the leg of Stipe Miocic prior to being finished in his title fight, and I think he will utilize those in this fight. His footwork has always been an issue, he doesn’t have great lateral movement and fighters are able to push him to the cage. When he gets stuck against the cage he doesn’t react well and can get hit clean or taken down. Dos Santos has been better in his last two fights of using his jab and more lateral movement, but that is still an issue for him. Dos Santos is extremely dangerous and has huge power. He has 13 KO/TKOs and has finished some of the best HWs of all time. He has taken a lot of damage and his chin is questionable at this point. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO, and they were his last three losses.
Junior Dos Santos is a good grappler, and I think he may try to use that here early. We don’t usually see him go for many takedowns, but he has shown good blast double legs and can shoot singles, push his opponents to the cage and then look for a takedown from there. I feel he may try to take Lewis down early and drain some of his gas tank by controlling him on the mat. Defensively, Dos Santos has great takedown defense and is very hard to hold down. I don’t see that being an issue in this match, and highly doubt Lewis will shoot a takedown. Dos Santos has had much more experience in five-round fights, and he can go all 5 rounds comfortably. He has only 1 submission in his career and been submitted one time. Dos Santos should look to use his jab, and straight punches to bust Lewis up from the outside. He needs to throw hard low leg kicks & try to slow the explosiveness of Lewis. He should have a major hand speed advantage, and I feel if he can get out of round 3 it is his fight to lose. He needs to throw a lot of front kicks to the body, body jabs and try to tire out Lewis. We have seen Lewis hurt to the body before. We have also seen JDS KO Mark Hunt with a spinning heel kick, and Lewis has been finished by head kick before. He needs to feint a lot & go forward. He cannot back up and needs to avoid being near the fence at all costs. He exits against the cage awkwardly with his hands down & that’s where Lewis has a big opportunity to finish.
Derrick Lewis
Age: 34
Height: 6’3
Weight: 264
Reach: 79”
Gym: Silver back Fight Club
From: Texas
UFC Record:13-4
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +175
Lewis is a pretty good boxer and can close the distance with powerful combinations. He is very explosive for someone his size and can close the distance extremely quickly. Lewis has a similar style to that of Yoel Romero in terms of fighting in spots. He will be very inactive and look like he is not doing much on the feet at all, and then explode in with a powerful blitz attack and finish the fight. He has a decent jab and a good very good right hook. He likes to counter with a right hook in the pocket and does a good job of moving his head off center line and landing while making opponents miss. He is very good in the dirty boxing range and has nice short hooks and uppercuts and can generate knockout power in incredibly short distances. He is surprisingly athletic for a fighter his size and shows that with his bountiful kicking game. He will use an array of kicks, ranging from the front kick to the body, to a switch kick to the head. He can sometimes throw the high kick blind, but it is extremely powerful, and his opponents are forced to respect and block it. Lewis will slam the kick into his opponent’s arms, and if he can knock them off balance he will explode with a punching combination. Lewis has no problem getting in the pocket and throwing down with opponents and will bite down on the mouthpiece and go to war. He is a tough guy and some people say he is a quitter or mentally weak, but I completely disagree. Lewis has been finished by strikes 3 times, but he has a pretty good chin, and the ability to take shots. He is susceptible to body shots but is tough and will battle through it. The bottom line is opponents always have to be careful with the “Black Beast”. He is the definition of a knockout artist with 16 KO/TKO’s to his name.
Derrick Lewis is an underrated grappler. He is good in the clinch, he does a great job of getting under hooks and digging with big knees to the body, he did this very effectively against Roy Nelson. He is also extremely dangerous in the dirty boxing realm, he can generate power in his short hooks and uppercuts that is not normal and have fighters twitching on the canvas. He will shoot for takedowns, he likes to get double legs against the cage, and will occasionally try to get a body lock takedown. He does a good job of defending takedowns, reversing and getting on top himself as well. Lewis has some of the best G&P in the history of MMA. It is absolutely devastating. He will throw huge hammer fists, elbows, and if he can pass your guard into mount the fight is as good as over. He is extremely heavy and almost impossible to get up from under. If he gets on top of Dos Santos, or anyone for that matter they are in serious trouble. Off his back, he isn’t dangerous, but he has an uncanny ability to just stand up when he wants to. He will just belly down, give his back and stand right up. Fighters haven’t been able to take his back and or stop him from disengaging the clinch when he stands up, proving just how physically strong Lewis is. He was submitted by Daniel Cornier fairly easily in his last match. Lewis needs to go forward, push JDS towards the cage & explode with combinations. We have seen JDS put out in his last three losses & Lewis is one of the hardest hitters of all time. I find it hard to believe that Lewis is going to win a decision here & think he needs a KO to get a victory.
I like JDS here a good bit. I think he is the much better striker and he also won’t gas out in a 5-round fight. I think he is more likely to land takedowns too because I think his takedown defense is too good for Lewis to get takedowns on him. The only way JDS loses this fight is by knockout. JDS could win every second of this fight up until the one big punch Lewis lands to pull off the upset. That is the only worry here. I am going to pick JDS and he can get it done by knockout or unanimous decision, but it does only take one shot from Lewis, so it is hard to trust him with too much money. Skill vs skill, this fight would be closer to a -500 line if it weren’t for the heavy power from Lewis. I think a 3rd round Lewis KO prop could be a decent shot if they give a nice line on it.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Dos Santos because I think he is playable in all formats. However, I would say my preferred GPP play would be Lewis because if he wins then he is almost surely on the optimal lineup. If JDS wins, he may not end up on the optimal. As the highest priced guy on the card, I think JDS needs to get a knockout to be on that $25k lineup and it wouldn’t shock me to see him win a slow-paced decision by just picking Lewis apart on the feet for 25-minutes. If that happens and he scores less than 90 DK points, then there is a very good chance he doesn’t end up on the optimal. I expect his fight to be at least 70% owned in GPPs so I think a fade makes sense. I also won’t be stacking this fight in cash, so I think a fade there makes sense as well. If you are making just 1 GPP lineup I would say its dog or pass. If you are making ~20 lineups like me, then I think a few shots on both sides is the way to go but do not go all-in on this main event.
Winner – Junior Dos Santos via Unanimous Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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