Ladies and Gentlemen, we made it. We braved the brutal offseason and we are FINALLY back to racing. Of course, we are starting at the high banks of Daytona. Look – it’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. The sweet spot is 26th starting spot or worse, and only 5 times has someone in the top five ended up in the optimal. Drivers in the back also have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Sunday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
As speedweeks have progressed, it has become increasingly evident that the drivers are most content to ride single file and log laps. This is detrimental to the traditional “the farther back they start the better” strategy. Well I am still going to employ that strategy this weekend, I will be more than willing to sprinkle in some front runners.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 20th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 20th aren’t unplayable, especially this year.
20. Austin Dillon – Dillon is super legit at Daytona. He is coming off two top ten finishes at Daytona, including winning the 2018 Daytona 500. He boasts an incredible 95% laps completed at Daytona and an average finish of 11th. I am quite bullish on Dillon here.
21. Ryan Preece – Preece is one the most inexperienced plate track drivers in the field, but looked okay in the duels, despite a less than stellar finish. I am not super high on Preece and I dont expect the public will be either. I won’t have any significant shares of Ryan Preece.
22. Ty Dillon – Ty is always one of my favorite plays at Daytona. He has finished on the lead lap 90% of time at Daytona, and finished 6th last time they were at here. I expect Dillon will be around 15% owned, and I dont mind be over on that.
23. Daniel Suarez – Daytona has never been kind to Suarez, boasting a lackluster 72.9 driver rating. He has only finished on the lead lap 50% of the time at Daytona, and has not been notable so far in speedweeks. If Suarez is 20% owned come Sunday, I am aiming to be a bit under.
24. David Ragan – Ragan is a pretty decent plate racer, but rarely ends up in the top ten. If he was starting further back, I’d be more inclined to invest. But starting 24th? I don’t have a lot of interest.
25. Parker Kligerman – Kligerman was only able to make the Daytona 500 because he got a timely push from his old chum Kyle Busch. He might be worth sprinkling in here and there, but I worry about his overall speed being able to stay relevant for 500 miles.
26. Kyle Larson – Larson is not a good plate race driver. However, you have a high level team with a high level driver starting in a position where he can only really move forward or wreck. I think you can get good value out of Larson here, thanks to the slight meta shift to drivers starting towards the front, as well as his perceived plate race struggles.
27. Landon Cassill – I like Cassill and his plate race prowess, but this is an uber volatile play. There is better picks in this range.
28. Erik Jones – It has been boom or bust for Jones when it comes to Daytona – 39th, 9th, 36th, and 1st. Well obviously a volatile play – I believe Erik Jones has matured as a plate racer and is gaining a very good survival sense. I like this play.
29. Daniel Hemric – Hemric showed flashes of brilliance in the duels, but ultimatly ended up towards the back of the pack. Regardless, that experience tied with a 29th place starting spots makes him worth a look. Beware though, I feel like this is every touts “SUPER SECRET SLEEPER PLAY”, he may actually go a tad overowned.
30. Brendan Gaughan – Brendan Gaughn returns to Daytona with Beard Motorsports for a third year. In their 4 OFFICIAL races at Daytona, this team has an average finish of 14.5, which means they are punching way above their weight. I think Gaughan is a great play if you are following traditional strategy.
31. Kyle Busch – No doubt KB will be one of the highest owned drivers in the field, and for good reason. However, it is worthwhile to note his recent Daytona results – 33, 25, 20, 38. Am I saying fade KB? Nooooooo thats borderline ludicrous. However, I do think there is some merit in matching the field or being slightly under on KB.
32. Corey LaJoie – Corey Lajoie will pilot the #32 car that Matt Dibenedetto has had many good Daytona runs in. I am not sure LaJoie is quite the driver that Matty D is, but he is certainly good enough to warrant some exposure this weekend.
33. Matt Tifft – Tifft didn’t show much prowess in the duels – and is making his first cup start this Sunday. I am always nervous of first timers, and this is no exception.
34. Michael McDowell – I think you can score tremendous value with McDowell this weekend. He knows how to keep his nose clean and has nowhere to go but up. McDowell is good enough to finish top 15 without any wrecks, and good enough to finish top 5 with them.
35. Brad Keselowski, Team Penske – This is a toughy. Brad K is probably the best plate racer active, and lucky for us he starts wayyyy back in 35th. I expect he creeps over 50% owned in most major GPPs. I am okay with matching the field and I am okay with being over…I can also see the merit in being under, given a general 25% DNF rate and a personal lead lap finish rate of 54%. This slate will be won or lost off the back of Brad K, so make sure you give him a couple extra thoughts.
36. Ross Chastain – Chastain had a rough go in the Duels, but looked good in Saturday’s xFinity race. He will probably only be around 10% owned and I don’t mind being over on that.
37. Cody Ware – This is a fade for me, this team struggles to finish races.
38. BJ McLeod – This is a fade for me, this team struggles to finish races.
39. Tyler Reddick – Richard Childress Racing – Reddick took things pretty easy in his Duel, but showed that he is not afraid to make moves in the xFinity race. Now – this is a rookie, and I am always hesitant to trust rookies. However, this is a special circumstance – an RCR car starting 39th at Daytona? A must play.
40. Casey Mears – This is a legit car starting dead last. Only one direction to go. Mears is an experienced enough driver to miss a few wrecks. I like this play alot.
Joey Logano, Paul Menard, Aric Almirola, Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, Ryan Blaney, Chris Buescher, Jimmie Johnson, Chase Elliott, Ryan Newman represent the drivers starting INSIDE the top 20 that I think will be higher owned and may be tougher to get value out of.
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.