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Buyers and Sellers As A Concept
The concept of Buyers and Sellers is simple. Baseline averages tell us a lot. We can use short term numbers as hot/cold indicators as they cross longer term numbers. For example, season long averages and a skater’s last 20 games. If his season fantasy output is 20 points per game, but he is currently producing 23 points per game over his last 20 games, he can be considered running hot. And, if he is only producing 18 points per game, he can be considered running cold.
DFS pricing does not react fast enough. We can use these crossing baselines to indicate whether we should be “buying” or “selling” our skater. See graphic below…
Here we are looking at a crude graphic of a skater’s last 10 games (black) compared to his last 5 games (blue). As the blue line crosses the black line upward, our skater is running hot (green arrow). As he cools off, he will cross below (red arrow). Now, over time, we can visualize whether we should be buying or selling. Since I like looking at L10 games vs L5 games most, let’s look at tonight’s buyers and sellers.
TIP – Not an all-inclusive list most nights, I focus on MY favorite teams for the night. I make hard-lined decisions often on bigger slates. Right or wrong, it’s often how I play. Hockey is volatile, and I will have great nights and poor nights. I can live with that. I don’t need to be in constant pursuit of perfection. We only need to get good at getting close and let the law of averages play out from there. Overthinking DFS is honestly a huge leak in many players’ games when allowed to frustrate them to the point they are no longer playing optimally.
Quick Targets Tonight
Huge 12 game slate tonight. I find my buyers and sellers by sorting the L5 and L10 columns in our Research Station. I will be playing the smaller slates tonight as a result. I’m not a fan of huge slates.
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Goalie Glance
Highest % Chance at Win (Vegas Odds) – Carey Price (MTL), Pekka Rinne (NSH), Braden Holtby (WAS)….safest shots at wins according to Vegas and our DFSA models.
January 28th Buyers
Jonathan Teowes – 9200/8100 – 33.5/25.7 – Easy access to Kane with a cheaper player still on the rise. Get funky and #DoubleC with Strome.
Jack Roslovic – 3700/2800 – 29.6/16.4 – Sure, huge hat trick game in here, but the price cant tank you if he duds. Cheap value that might be running legit hot.
Victor Hedman – 6500/5900 – 27.4/19.4 – QB of the TB power play. Good exposure to lots of higher priced front line skaters here…..sort of a leverage play as a one-off on a huge slate.
Frank Vatrano – 4500/5100 – 25.4/18.9 – I LOVE the price up on DK compared to FD. Tells me the algorithm sees something. This guy has been too cheap for too long…and I’m not off the train.
Jacob Trouba – 5400/5200 – 23.8/16.0 – Without Byf, great access to WPG power play like Hedman gives for TB. Running hot still, but feels a bit unsafe imo.
Eric Staal – 6700/6000 – 22.9/16.7 – If MIN is indeed heating up, you want to catch those running hot…..here is one. Opponent gives up goals. Tonight’s matchup isn’t terrible.
TJ Oshie – 6100/5400 – 22.1/16.3 – Access to Ovechkin, power play time, usually solid floor, only issue is the recent suckage that is all of WAS. But, Osh is underpriced.
Dylan Strome – 4900/4900 – 21.3/15.1 – More access to a heated CHI squad. Serves on PP1 so you get exposure to Kane, Teowes and DeBrincat….pair with Kane/Teowes for cash, DeBrincat for gpp.
Logan Couture – 6700/6100 – 21.0/11.9 – Big buy signal here and look at who’s next….a teammate.
Joe Pavelski – 7200/6300 – 19.7/13.9 – Correlated or not, I’d be using both these guys if using more than one skater from SJ tonight.
Egveny Kuzentsnov – 7100/5700 – 19.2/13.9 – More WAS access to Ovechkin, but more slumping teammates makes this a risky play. Matchup is cherry, though.
Shea Theodore – 4200/4700 – 19.2/14.7 – Mans the Vegas power play and has been producing well for the price tag consistently for longer than even the 10 game baseline.
Marcus Johansson – 3900/4000 – 17.1/9.7 – Another deep value play that can’t hurt too terribly if it goes south on you. NJ isn’t a great offensive team, and it’s not a great game, but value is value.
Check our coaching page for other opinions tonight! DFSA NHL Coaches Picks
January 28th Sellers
Gabriel Landeskog – 7000 FD/7000 DK – 13.0 L5/21.6 L10 – Not your target tonight…focus on MacKinnon or Rantanen….better yet, Soderberg.
Jake Guentzel – 7600/6100 – 14.7/21.4 – When production dips below its baseline, the player is simply overpriced. Not unusable…..just overpriced.
Braden Point – 8000/7100 – 15.2/19.9 – Not a big dip, but at this price and sustainability, it’s a sell.
Egveni Malkin – 8200/6200 – 15.1/19.0 – With a 2k difference between sites, I had to double check the DK numbers. Yep….still a sell at 4ish L5 and 6ish L10. $6200 isn’t good for 4 points.
Filip Forsberg – 7400/6400 – 10.6/16.1 – With NSH in a good spot tonight, this isn’t the skater I’m after.
Blake Coleman – 4500/5700 – 9.1/15.7 – Next set of names gives no reprieve on DK, if anything, they are worse there. Seems this price range is going to see slower declines in pricing from DK, which is odd.
Elias Petterson – 6300/6700 – 9.8/15.5 – VAN on b2b on road……pass anyway, despite the sell indicator.
Jason Zucker – 4600/4500 – 10.3/15.0 – MIN might be heating up, but Zucker is as cold as the weather outside in Minneapolis.
Jordan Eberle – 5300/5200 – 5.8/13.5 – My how the mighty have fallen. NYI was playing way over their heads. It was fun, and cheap, while it lasted. Now, it’s just plain overpriced.
Anders Lee – 6300/5900 – 5.8/13.4 – Seconding the motion of NYI coming back to earth, I offer you Anders Lee. Sell.
There are many more on this list once you see how to spot them. I encourage you to roll through your source, or our Research Station, to find them and write them down. Make a player pool tonight, focus on some stacking of players, and choose your contests. For more advice, join our coaching chats, and we’ll help you shape your game, too. Or, click our Coaching Notes Page for a more complete list of players to watch.
Final Recommendation
You are going to find volatility in this sport, no matter the method you use to select players. Short slates allow us to really stack skaters up, and that increases volatility. However, it also allows us to spot heavy chalk and get away from it to leverage the field in tourneys. Today offers decent opportunities at both here on this early slate. Take your stand and go for something. Leave your comfort zone and grow as a player!
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