NBA DFS Advice and Value Picks: 2/13/19

Donuts to Dollars

The modus operandi of the majority of my articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal model and projections.

I used my player pool that I put on our website and pumped out my second solid night over on FantasyDraft in the last week. I give away my personal player pool 6 days per week and discuss the slate with our members in chat. Hope to see you join and kick some butt over there with me. Promo DONUTS gives you 20% off forever!

If you want to freedom to create a lineup with immense flexibility, give the DFS n’ Donuts Freeroll via FantasyDraft a try for tonight’s slate!

Deep Fried Value

Nikola Jokic is a phenomenal value on FantasyDraft due to his massive And1 rating that our research station algorithm has identified. This is our proprietary grading system that takes into account a ton of different trends, analytics, data, and comparisons over a two year time frame to highlight the overall “grade” of a player. Jokic is in a smash spot against the Kings and has a massive ceiling that isn’t highlighted by his price tag.

Kevon Looney will likely get the start or at least play upper-20’s minutes for the Warriors against the host, Portland Trailblazers. DeMarcus Cousins is going to rest this last game prior to the All-Star Break, meaning Looney should get plenty of run. Be on the lookout for Draymond Green being a potential scratch prior to tip-off, which would only further the value of Looney and potentially Jordan Bell. Our news and notes channel in chat will highlight who benefits and how to adjust your player pools. While his minutes have been limited, he is averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month of basketball. He’s an elite value on DraftKings, priced at just $3,700 and a phenomenal value on FanDuel as a “Drop Score” target at just $3,900 and receives the highest grade in my personal model with a 6.5x fantasy points per dollar projection.

Marcus Morris is my second highest rated player in my FanDuel model at just $5,100. He has scored 25.90 or more points in 6 of his last 7 games, including 29.60 against the Sixers on Tuesday night in 33 minutes of play, finishing with a 19.5% usage rate without Kyrie Irving in the lineup. He’s a perfect “Hybrid Lineup” play due to his solid floor and ceiling scoring range.

Lou Williams has an elite slate winning ceiling at just $13,100 on FantasyDraft, as evidenced by his 47.75 and 52.25 point scores in 2 of the last 4 games. He has had a usage rate over 32.0% in 10 of the last 12 games and scored over 39.25 in 6 of those 10 games. While he is a very volatile player and the Clippers are not a very good team, his volatility and circumstance normally lead to him being a player that you can acquire with single digit ownership. On this massive slate, I envision Sweet Lou having a very low ownership once again. If you can swallow the acid reflux back down that he will inevitably cause you, he makes for a strong tournament option and provide solid value.

Delon Wright would instantly jump to the top of my value ranking if we hear that Mike Conley is going to miss Wednesday night’s contest. In a spot start on Tuesday, Wright played 34 minutes and had a solid 26.00 point fantasy outing. On DraftKings and FantasyDraft, his current price is near-min price. Over his last 240 minutes of court time, he averages just a notch under 1.00 fantasy points per minute. Against the Chicago Bulls, Wright would be a near plug and play option in all formats.

Personal Player Pool

Our optimizer has received some recent upgrades to take into consideration the specific format and roster construction that is needed to succeed on FanDuel. It is imperative to continuously adapt to the ever shifting landscape of DFS. Our fearless leader, “Geek”, hooked us up with this refreshed roll out! Most members like to use the optimizer with the player pools provided to them by the daily NBA coaches.

For my personal pool, I always try to work my way upwards when building lineups or a CSV file. I want to make sure I have the correct value and then build upwards from that value, plugging in the rest of my player pool or lineup with guys that have tremendous scoring ceilings. Kevin Looney and Delon Wright are standout options that don’t break the bank and allow you to build around them. While the industry touts easy to target studs and says to build around them, savvy DFS players will plug in the value and start from the bottom up. Pay attention to news and if a player like Kawhi Leonard gets ruled out (he’s currently questionable), be prepared to add Pascal Siakam and potentially Jeremy Lin to you player pool, as underpriced targets that could deliver in a big way.

Be aware of pace-up situations and take advantage of players that could nice bump in production. The Denver Nuggets have a massive bump (+5.9) against the visiting Sacramento Kings. The Nuggets are already going to be missing Gary Harris and news could drop later in the day about Paul Millsap if they choose to rest him. We have already discussed the love-affair my personal model has for Nikola Jokic, but be on the lookout for a player like Trey Lyles, who’s game log volatility is directly correlated to both Harris and Millsap being out for his value to be present. If Millsap joins Harris, Lyles is underpriced for his potential production – same goes for Mason Plumlee. 

Make sure not to fall trap to the “plug and play” misnomer that the industry does not make clear when providing picks. Not all picks are created equal and a player might be a fantastic option on one site but a terrible option on another. Dion Waiters fits the mold perfectly for this example on the Wednesday slate. He’s a great option on DraftKings as a player who’s at just $4,300 and should play 30+ minutes for the fourth straight game. He can get you the three-point bonus and score in bunches if he heats up from outside. However, his price tag on FanDuel ($5,200) and FantasyDraft ($8,500) is at value, making him nothing more than a dart throw at best for tournaments.

For my full thoughts and daily player pool, you’ll have to join up!

Wagers For Days (All-Star Break distraction!)

Salute to the Member Success

Our “Member Hall of Fame” is littered with results from the 2015-2019 seasons. I hope that we as a company and community, are able to change the life of a player or even potentially an entire family! I implore you to join our community, use our services, tools, articles, podcasts, research station, domination station optimizer, and last but not least, our members-only chat service where you can discuss the DFS slate one-on-one with our Pro’s and coaches. Lastly, use promo DONUTS for 20% off all of the above content and services!

 

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