Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Last articles Traps:
DeAndre Bembry (17.7) – Hawks were very thin at guard last night and he got some additional minutes, still didn’t do much.
Rajon Rondo (27.4) – He’s going to be volatile coming off the bench, because in order to keep up his playing time he’s going to need to perform. GPP only moving forward and only if his price starts to come down. He still didn’t hit that 5x number we were looking for against even the Hawks defense.
Ben Simmons (32.5) – We now have a 3 game sample since the Sixers added Harris, and Simmons is still trending downward. He’ll need one of the 4 to be out in order to get some usage back. He’s still returning value in the 3x range.
Just Missed the Cut: Lance Stephenson (9.6) – Just like predicted with Bullock in the mix it leaves Lance battling KCP for minutes, it’ll be a situation to avoid moving forward.
Now, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Value Traps
Noah Vonleh (DK $4,200 FD $4,500)
Vonleh is in the Fiz’s doghouse and is trending in all the wrong directions, take a peek:
He’s returning you 2.5x value on both sites over his last 3, and averaging 13.3 FPs over his last 5. His minutes also continue to trend downward as he is only averaging around 15 minutes per game over his last 3, which is just under 8 minutes less playing time per game. He’s projected at 23 minutes tonight, which I don’t see happening, I see him more in the 15-20 range that he has been in, with 20 being the max. That won’t be enough time for him to hit the value that the RS is projecting. I’m Xing him out of my player pool on the DS tonight and you should too.
Tim Hardaway Jr. (DK $5,100 FD $5,600)
I can see the intrigue for him in GPPs, but his new role with the Mavs and not being the primary scorer like he was in NY seems to really be limiting his ceiling. THJ is highly dependent on scoring for his FP production and the matchup doesn’t bode too well for him tonight. We have the second lowest total of the night and they’re facing off against the Heat who are ranked 6th overall in total team defensive efficiency and both these teams play at a slower pace. He’s also trending downward in the Who’s Hot model and can be a very streaky shooter. He seems to be forcing shots with his new team and this isn’t the matchup to get him going. I’ll be avoiding him tonight as there are plenty of other options on this huge 11 game slate we have tonight.
Norman Powell (DK $3,600 FD $3,800)
Powell stood out to me in the RS today as supposedly providing almost 5x value, I think it mostly has to do with the matchup against Washington and their non-existent defense. Unless one of Toronto’s starting 5 sits tonight, Powell will likely see less than 20 minutes once again tonight. On a huge 11 game slate tonight there are plenty of other Drop Score worthy candidates who will be in better positions tonight than Powell is. I don’t think he gets you that 5x value you’re looking for in cash games, much less the upside you’ll need to take down a GPP that you’ll need from your value picks.
Just Missed the Cut: Ben Simmons – 3 games in with Harris and he continues to trend in the wrong direction. His usage has taken the biggest hit and I’ll be avoiding him until his price comes down. He’s down over 12 FPs per game over his last 3.
Who’s Trending
Gordon Hayward (DK $4,800 FD $5,300)
If you watched the game last night you had to be impressed with how Hayward looked. He’s looking like he’s finally rounding back into the player the Celtics went after in free agency two years ago. Kyrie Irving is out again tonight, which actually opens up the most usage for Hayward and Jaylen Brown. It’s looking like Rozier won’t play tonight either due to an illness so Hayward should see around 30 minutes off the bench tonight and if Brown slides into the starting lineup Hayward will dominate 2nd team usage. Over his last 3 he’s averaging over 5x value on both sites and his price is really enticing on DraftKings. I really like Hayward and Brown tonight if Rozier sits as well. Take a look at his numbers below:
Brad Wanamaker (DK $3,200 FD $3,500)
If Rozier sits along with Irving tonight, Wanamaker will likely draw the start at PG tonight for the Celtics. If he gets the starting nod he should see close to 30 minutes tonight and should be one of your top Drop Score Candidates on FanDuel. He produces a little less than 1 FPPM so if he see’s 30 minutes he should pay off handsomely tonight. All he really needs is a few steals and a couple assists to pay off at 5x and has the opportunity to get you that 10x value that you’ll need tonight on this huge slate.
Bradley Beal (DK $8,700 FD $9,700)
I LOVEEEEEE Beal tonight, especially on DK. People will be turned off by the defensive matchup but I think Beal avoids the Kawhi treatment tonight as they will need to get him going in order to keep this game close. It also helps that he DESTROYSSSSS the Raptors, take a look:
He’s also trending up in the Who’s Hot Model as well:
He should see close to 40 minutes again tonight, and the Wizards are really going to lean on him to keep this game competitive. He shouldn’t be too highly owned tonight either.
Chris Paul (DK $7,600 FD $8,200)
Chris Paul is going to be a cash game staple for me tonight. He’s on the lower priced end for the top dollar guys and gets a very good matchup in what should be a very competitive game in Minnesota. When it comes to Who’s Hot CP3 really stands out:
He’s clocking in at just around 30 MPG and is crushing just under 6x value on both sites and he’s averaging around 40FPs per game over his last 5. The Rockets will need him to come up big again tonight as they are pretty thin at the PG position. Paul is a fantastic play tonight.
Larry Nance Jr. (DK $6,700 FD $7,600)
Nance has been on a tear lately and he has no reason to stop that trend tonight. All the reports are saying that Kevin Love will play between 15-20 again tonight which should allow Nance to play 35+ again tonight. The Cavs also get a pace-up matchup tonight at +4.1 which can allow for a few extra rebounds and put-backs for good ol’ Larry. He’s also hit for over 40FPs in each of his last 3 so at his price point he has the upside you need at a discount from your higher tiered priced guys. Nance will be a core play for me tonight and will be in a lot of my lineups.
Other Guys I Like Tonight: Steph Curry – Boogie will be taking the night off which bumps his usage up a fraction, even moreso if Draymond sits tonight. Him and Lillard should battle tonight and he comes at a discount to Lillard. Nikola Jokic – Has a great pace-up matchup against the Kings and has another great opportunity to go for another Triple Double tonight. He’s my favorite pay up option at Center tonight. Ivica Zubac – I’m going back to the well tonight even though he burned me last time out, he destroyed the Suns last time he played them.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be in there for a bit, but I am not coaching today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!