Hello DFS Army members and happy February! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to join the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings so this article will be tailored towards those two sites. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on. So with that said, lets dig in!
Still unsure about DFS Army? Check out user goosebumps night with a little help from yours truly. He took home a GPP and a grand total of over $3,000! Join today!
Last articles Traps:
DeAndre Bembry – (11.3) His fantasy production will continue to tank unless Prince or Bazemore fall out of the rotation or get injured.
Ante Zizic – (7.1) Hasn’t done much the last few games and is trending in all the wrong directions. I’ll be avoiding him until he picks it up.
Kevin Knox – (30.8) Hezonja took Vonleh’s place in the starting lineup which caused Knox to avoid Kawhi.
Just Missed the Cut: Dewayne Dedmon – (29.9) When he gets playing time he produces, it’s just never consistent. Kawhi Leonard – (27) Ice cold right now and is way underperforming. Maybe he still has soft tissue damage?
Now, let’s dig in to today’s slate!
For advice on how to build your lineups with the Drop Score, PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Value Traps
Josh Okogie (DK $3,700 FD $3,500)
Okogie makes the Value Trap list once again. On the season, he’s averaging 0.69 FPPM and is supporting a paltry 16.6% usage rate. The RS is predicting him for close to 6x value on both sites. While he is usable on FanDuel there are way better options out there for your Drop Score Candidate. He’s averaging around 5x value over his last 3 which is inflated by his 3 steal game against Orlando which inflated his stats a bit. He’s scored right at 15FPs over below in 7 of his last 8 and Wiggins has really picked up his play as of late, which will diminish his usage even more. It also appears that Covington is a GTD as well. As long as Covington remains out Okogie will see decent minutes in the 20s, but more often than not he doesn’t do much with him. You could use him as your Drop Score Candidate on FanDuel, but I’ll give you a few better plays. I’ll be avoiding him on all sites today.
Patrick Patterson (DK $3,300 FD $3,500)
People will be looking at him for value tonight with Grant being out as those opens up a bunch of minutes at the 4 for the Thunder tonight. While the value may be there in cash games, the ceiling isn’t for GPPs. Those minutes will likely be soaked up by him and Abdel Nader. Patterson usually doesn’t play more than 20 minutes and has a horrid 12% usage rate to go along with a 0.61 FPPM average. Even if he sees over 20 minutes tonight I see him topping out around 15-20 FPs. He will likely be the last option on offense as well and will likely only score on tip ins or if he has wide open layups, which doesn’t bode well either for his FP production. He doesn’t have great past production against Portland either:
There are better options out there for value tonight. I’m fine with him as a Drop Score Candidate in cash on FD if you’re out of options, but other than that I’ll be avoiding him.
Ed Davis (DK $3,600 FD $4,200)
Davis had a good run for a bit, but with the Nets role players returning from injury I’m here to tell you that run is over. Take a look at his numbers:
Since Crabbe and LeVert returning it has bumped DeMarre Carroll to the 4 with the second unit, and he is the clear favorite over Davis right now. RHJ and Kurucs are also soaking up the available playing time which is leaving Davis as the odd man out. Over his last 3 he’s averaging 10FPPG less and losing over 5 minutes per game. During his hot streak he was being extremely efficient and although his FPPM is 1.07 seeing 10-15 minutes will not be enough to get him over the hump to have that value he was providing a short time ago. If you’re smart you’ll avoid him like I am.
Just Missed the Cut: Allonzo Trier – He’s continually making the list, as it appears him and Dotson will be yoyoing back and forth on playing time depending on who gets hot on a game to game basis. I’ll be avoiding both of them until we get a clear cut winner. Taj Gibson – Going back to this as the trend continues, Saric is clearly winning over the coaching staff and has been playing more minutes than Gibson the past few games and he’s priced better.
Who’s Trending
All of the picks here last article we’re pretty much dead on. If you used them you probably won a lot of money like I did. Now let’s dig in.
Cory Joseph (DK $4,400 FD $4,900)
This whole Pacers team is hot right now, none more so than this man right here. Just look at the value he’s returning, specifically over his last 3 he’s averaging 6.6x value on FD and 7.6x on DK. I love his price on DK as he is seeing at least 30 minutes in 5 of his last 6 and I see that trend continuing today. Charlotte is also in the bottom third against guards. There aren’t many guys on tonights slate where you have a guy with this type of playing opportunity at this price point. He’s a steal at $4,400 on DK and is still underpriced on FD. He’s Hot as you can tell below:
Jabari Parker (DK $5,600 FD $3,900)
Just lock him in on FanDuel tonight….seriously. There must be something wrong with their pricing algorithm as he’s still on $3,900 over there and is a great Drop Score Candidate who is getting a great opportunity on his new team. He should see around 30 minutes again tonight off the bench. He is still a bit underpriced on DraftKings and I will have shares of him over there as well. He is volatile as we’ve seen, but also has a very high ceiling, where it won’t hurt you if he duds on FanDuel it really is a no-brainer. Until his price starts to go up, he’ll be in every one of my FanDuel lineups. Jeff Green is also not looking like he’ll play tonight so that makes this even more of a no-brainer.
Larry Nance Jr. (DK $5,900 FD $7,100)
UPDATE: Looks like Kevin Love is going to play tonight. That bumps both Nance and Chriss down. I expect him to be on a minute limit, keep an eye out as to what that limit is. Nance is still a good play if he stays in the starting lineup. If he isn’t starting we can pivot to Portis.
Just take a look at his numbers:
Nance has been on a tear lately and I expect that to continue today. He’s a great pivot off of what will likely be a chalky Bobby Portis, but he gets the benefit of starting. The Knicks are also a terrible defensive team and Love reinjuring himself solidifies Nance for a solid 35+ minutes in what will be a competitive game between two bad teams. He’s put up at least 35FPs in 3 of his last 4 and they get a solid pace-up matchup at +3.5 and the Knicks sports the 29th best team defensive efficiency (that’s bad). This is a great spot for both Cavs and Knicks players.
Ivica Zubac (DK $4,000 FD $3,900)
Zubac is another great Drop Score Candidate on FanDuel and a great value play on DraftKings. Doc likes to have Harrell come off the bench as shown by Zubac entering the starting lineup last game. Zubac played 23 minutes but I expect that number to bump up closer to 25-30 in this game. We know that when he gets playing time he produces and he only needs to get you 15-20FPs in order to hit 5x value. Him and Parker are my top 2 Drop Score Candidates tonight but I will have some Marquese Chriss rolled in as well, as the two of them should be pretty safe when it comes to Drop Score Candidates so tonight is a night where I think it’s safe to put in 3 Drop Score guys. You can lock Zubac in on both sites tonight with some comfort.
Marquese Chriss (DK $3,000 FD $3,600)
UPDATE: With Love being back it probably takes Chriss out of play unless we get news that says otherwise. Chasson Randle becomes a solid Drop Score replacement candidate.
Chriss is a great GPP value play tonight and Drop Score guy on FanDuel. If we get news that he will also be off a minutes limit tonight I would lock him in everywhere and you should as well. He’s minimum priced on DK and just above minimum on FanDuel. If he can get some additional minutes tonight he should be able to get you around 25-30FPs which can really get you that boost you need in GPPs and I would even be comfortable playing him in cash. However, if we get word that he is on a minutes limit I would bump him out of cash range and stick to GPP only. Either way he has the upside in GPPs that you want. If you need another value play tonight I like Chriss over Patterson.
Other Guys I Like: Bobby Portis – Should see another 30ish minutes again tonight and has been playing pissed off. He’s trending in all the right directions. Chris Paul – Harden is a GTD, if he sits just lock in CP3 everywhere as it will open up a huge amount of usage. Even if he plays, Paul has been picking it up since his return and has the ability to get you that 50 burger at a discounted rate. Kevin Knox – He’s cheap and is seeing 35-40 minutes per game, I like him for the same reason I like Joseph. Damian Lillard – He loves playing against Russ, he should light it up tonight.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will be in there for a bit, but I am not coaching today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!