Welcome back to another weekend of MMA. This Saturday we have a 13 fight card coming to us from Prague, Czech Republic (please take note of the earlier start time). With this being a European card we have numerous fights on this card that have had 3 or less fights in the UFC. What that means for us is if, we do our homework properly we can get an edge on the field. I am playing my regular volume in cash and tournaments this card.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC On ESPN+ 3 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Santos (-110) 8.5k vs Blachowicz (+100) 7.7k
Santos is a solid striker and he lands at a high volume of 5.02 Significant Strikes (SS’s) per minute. He has big power and solid kicks. Blachowicz is a solid striker (3.64 SS’s per minute) and has a solid jab. He has decent takedowns (TD’s) and solid submissions.
Vegas has this fight pegged as the most likely to end Inside The Distance (ITD) on the entire card (-475). Both fighters have solid props ITD (Santos +135 and Blachowicz +130) in this scenario.
This is the main event on the card so, we potentially have 5 rounds of MMA action (though not likely). In cash games its fairly straightforward for me. I am stacking this fight and moving on. Whomever wins this fight is very, likely putting up 100+ draftkings points. Just going off our projections from our DFS Army exclusive Research Station the stack is projected to score 138.79 Draftkings points.
Looking at this fight in tournaments I am most likely going to have 100% exposure to this fight. Somebody is putting up a big score and probably be on the optimal lineup. At the moment I am writing this article my preferred play is Santos. Mainly for the fact I think Blachowicz is going to be a very, popular underdog. I have no problem if you want to target Blachowicz more. I am probably going to have 60-40 ownership in this fight. If you want to play it safer just go 50-50. Either fighter is a solid play in tournaments.
In closing on this fight. Stack it in cash and have 1 of these fighters in at least 80% of your lineups (I will personally have 100% exposure to this fight).
Prazeres (-420) 9.4k vs Naurdiev (+375) 6.8k
Prazeres is a good striker (2.59 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. He has solid TD’s (4.22 per fight) and good submissions. Naurdiev is making a big step-up in competition for this fight. He is a ok striker from the footage I have seen of him. It does appear that he has trouble avoiding TD’s.
Vegas is leaning on this fight ending early with an ITD prop of (-195) and the likely winner being Prazeres (-150 to win ITD).
Prazeres makes for a strong play in all formats. Going off our Research Stations numbers he is the best value play on the entire card. The only question is with him being the most expensive fight on draftkings is can he outscore everyone around him. For that reason alone he isn’t an all in play for me in tournaments. I don’t have much interest in Naurdiev. I just think Prazeres is better everywhere than him. Overall my preferred play is Prazeres.
Yan (-290) 9.3k vs Dodson (+260) 6.9k
Yan is a solid striker (5 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. He is aggressive and has decent TD’s (1.58 per fight). Dodson is a decent striker (3.38 SS’s per minute) and has decent power. It is worth mention that Dodson has never been finished in his UFC career.
Vegas is expecting this fight to go to the scorecards with a (-285) fight goes to decision prop. Yan is the favorite in this outcome (-150 to win via decision).
So just looking at what Vegas is telling us about this fight Yan looks like a great play. Not so fast!
Going by these numbers from our Research Station Yan makes for a good cash play. The reason being we are trying to build safe floors in cash games. In tournaments I actually don’t like Yan as a play. Going by our projections those numbers don’t even come close to what Yan needs at his draftkings salary (though I will have some exposure to him in contests I am making 20+ lineups). We are looking for 100+ pts. Dodson doesn’t interest me much at all even at his cheap salary. He is more than likely going to get beat on the feet for 3 rounds and Yan will win by decision. Overall Yan makes for a good cash play but, just temper your expectations of him in tournaments.
Hadzovic (-115) 7.4k vs Reyes (+105) 8.8k
Hadzovic is a good striker and has solid power. He has good combos and good cardio. Reyes is a solid striker (6.69 SS’s per minute) and has big power.
Vegas likes this fight to end ITD with a finishing prop of (-190) and both fighters carrying individual props of (Hadzovic +220 and Reyes +160) to win ITD.
Just going off the odds Hadzovic is going to be the chalk in cash games. He is the favorite and priced at only 7.4k on draftkings. This is chalk I am eating in my cash games.
For tournaments lets see what our Research Station thinks.
Hadzovic has a slight edge here. If you noticed though Reyes actually has the better ITD prop. For that reason and taking ownership’s into play Reyes in theory makes for a solid tournament play. He will have at least half the ownership Hadzovic does. Overall I will have exposure to both in tournaments with my edge play being Reyes. In cash games don’t over think it Hadzovic is the chalk.
Fishgold (-230) 9k vs Teymur (+210) 7.2k
Fishgold is a good striker (4.78 SS’s per minute) and is solid on the ground. He has good TD’s (3.59 per fight) and decent submissions. Teymur is a decent striker (3.8 SS’s per minute) and is tough.
Vegas favors this fight to end relatively early with an ITD prop of (-225) and Fishgold getting the finish here with a prop of (-130 to win ITD).
Fishgold makes for a great play in all formats. He has the 2nd best finishing prop on the entire card and is the 2nd best value play on the card according to our Research Station. Teymur doesn’t interest me at all and I will personally be fading him. Fishgold is the preffered play and you can fire him up in all formats.
Khabilov (-150) 8.7k vs Ferreira (+115) 7.5k
Khabilov is a solid striker (2.01 SS’s per minute) and has good TD’s (4.04 per fight). He is on a 6 fight win streak all via decision. Ferreira is a solid striker (4.45 SS’s per minute) and has good power. He has solid submissions.
Vegas is favoring this fight does to decision (-185) and the winner in tthis scenerio being Khabilov (+105).
At his salary of 8.7k I am not that high on Khabilov. There are too many other fighters around him that I feel have more upside. Priced at 7.5k in a fight expected to go to decision. Lets see if the Research Station has any love for Ferreira.
I don’t mind these numbers as a cash or tournament punt play. We need to target some dogs in tournaments and this puts him in the mix for me. So, while I am picking Khabilov to win this fight Ferreira is the better draftkings play for me. I will have exposure to him in tournaments and he is in consideration for my cash lineup.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Pedersoli (-150) 8.2k vs Grant (+130) 8k
Pedersoli is good all-around. He is a decent striker (4.41 SS’s per minute) and has good kicks. He is solid in the clinch and has good TD’s (2.88 per fight). Grant is a good striker (2.67 SS’s per minute). He has quick hands and good power.
Vegas is leaning towards this fight going to decision (-180) and in that outcome Pedersoli being the victor (+150 to win via decision).
This is a a fight we will want to get some exposure to. Both fighters are priced right in that mid-range where we often end up having to go in some lineups. I don’t have a strong lean either way in this match-up. If I had to pick someone it would be Pedersoli mainly because he can fall back onto his wrestling. On general this is a fight I will have exposure to both fights (most likely not more than 20-25%). Not I fight you need to get heavy exposure to in general.
Ismagulov (-300) 9.2k vs Alvarez (+270) 7k
Ismagulov is a solid grappler and has good TD’s. He is a decent striker and just a solid all-around fighter. Alvarez does 1 thing and he does it well. He is a submission grappler (14 of his 15 wins have come via submission).
Vegas is slightly leaning on this fight ending early with a ITD prop of (-140). Actually going off Vegas odds it doesn’t matter. Ismagulov is the favorite to win via finish (+160 ITD) or decision (+142).
The big question is do we think he has enough upside at his salary to like him in tournaments.
These numbers are enough to justify to me getting exposure to Ismagulov in tournaments. This is the 1st fight on the card so, I am not sure yet what my ownership will be on Ismagulov. I do like him in this spot though. I also don’t hate getting Alvarez in 1-2 lineups because he is live to getting a submission. Overall my preferred play is Ismagulov.
De Lima (-135) 8.4k vs Struve (+115) 7.8k
De Lima is a decent striker (3.36 SS’s per minute) and has good power. He is a ok wrestler and has good leg kicks. Struve is a UFC veteran. He is a ok striker and has decent submissions.
The only reason I want some exposure to this fight is because of the ITD prop of (-265). My preferred play is De Lima. Not a fight I will be targeting a ton. But, worth getting exposure to in 20+ lineups.
Carmouche (-140) 8.3k vs Pudilova (+130) 7.9k
Carmouche is good in the clinch and has good TD’s (3.18 per fight). Pudilova is a good striker (5.53 SS’s per minute) and is tough.
With the high decision prop (-300) I am not sure how popular this fight will be on draftkings. Both fighters are right in that mid-range so I will have some exposure to them. Lets see if the Research Station has a strong opinion.
Its giving the edge to Carmouche. I personally can’t ignore the high output of Pudilova. With that alone in a 3 round fight she has a decent floor. Carmouche if she can take the fight to the ground has an advantage. Overall I will have shares of both but my preferred play is Pudilova.
Ankalaev (-220) 9.1k vs Abreu (+180) 7.1k
Ankalaev is a solid striker and is decent on the ground. Abreu is a good grappler and has solid submissions.
Ankalaev on paper is by far the better fighter in this matchup. Its just hard to forget 2 fights ago he tapped out with 1 second left to lose a fight he was dominating. For that reason Abreu interests me some (not anything more than 1-2 lineups). In general my preferred play is Ankalaev.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Robertson (-160) 8.6k vs Macedo (+150) 7.6k
I prefer Robertson in this matchup. I just am not a fan of here draftkings salary. She would be my play if using anyone from this fight.
Oleksiejczuk (-200) 8.9k vs Villante (+185) 7.3k
Oleksiejczuk only has 1 fight in UFC prior to this. I just like other fighters way more around him. Villante is a dog I am only targeting if building 20+ lineups and even then very little.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat. Also we are introducing a new feature for our VIP’s where we will have all our thoughts up-to-the-minute in 1 spot.
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