Welcome back to another solid weekend of fights! ESPN welcomes UFC to the big network with a 13 fight card from Phoenix, Arizona. This, along with the fact that NBA is on All-Star Break means we could have more casuals this card. That means you could have an edge on the field just reading this article and using all our content available to you at DFS Army.
We have been on a huge run in all sports at DFS Army! Especially in NBA as you can see below! If you want to join in on the winning use promo code “FORSLUND” to save 10% on your membership.
As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC On ESPN 1 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Velasquez (-170) 9k vs Ngannou (+130) 7.2k
Velasquez is the former UFC Heavyweight Champion and making is return after a 2 year layoff. He is a solid striker and has good output (lands 6.49 Significant Strikers per minute). He is a solid wrestler and has good takedowns (4.61 per fight). Ngannou is a dangerous striker and has big 1 punch knockout power.
According to Vegas this fight has the best odds to end Inside The Distance (ITD) on the entire card (-675).
In cash games I have no problem with stacking this fight in cash games. Going of the numbers from our DFS Army exclusive Research Station the combined projections is 145 Draftkings points. That might be a bit high but, I definitely see the stack getting to 120+.
In tournaments with the ITD prop I will more than likely have 100% exposure to this fight. We have to likely outcomes in this fight. The first one is Ngannou gets a KO in the 1st Round and scores around 100 draftkings points himself. The second one is Velasquez uses his high output striking and elite grappling to dominate the fight. Think of this scenerio being like when Ngannou went against Miocic. Both fighters obviously are great tournament plays for the outcomes I stated above. My preferred play is going to be Velasquez (I am probably going to have 60% Velasquez and 40% Ngannou). I like the upside he brings with his wrestling. In general this should be a fun main event however long it lasts.
Luque (-450) 9.4k vs Barberena (+300) 6.8k
Luque is a solid striker and has a decent volume of 3.71 Significant Strikes (SS’s) per minute. He has good power and solid submissions. Barberena is a tough figher and has good cardio. He is a good striker (4.98 SS’s per minute).
Vegas is liking this fight to end early with an ITD prop of (-165) and in this outcome it favors Luque (-113 to win ITD)
In cash games I am not going to overthink this. Luque is the most expensive fighter on the slate for good reason. He is popping off as the 2nd best value play on the entire card on our Research Station. I am perfectly comfortable locking him in. In tournaments Luque makes for a solid play as well. My only concern is how much exposure I will have of him just because of his price tag. Barberena doesn’t interest me at all. I don’t see him likely winning so, I will probably be fading him. In general I like Luque in all formats.
Calvillo (-350) 9.2k vs Casey (+245) 7k
Calvillo is a decent striker (3.41 SS’s per minute). She has solid submissions and good TD’s (lands 2.02 per fight). Casey is a good striker (4.8 SS’s per minute) and has good power. She has shown in inability to avoid TD’s in the past.
Vegas likes leans on this fight going to a decision (-185 fight goes to decision) and Calvillo getting her hand raised (+190 to win via decision).
Just looking at the numbers above Calvillo makes for a solid play in all formats. In a decision win she more than likely gets some TD’s and puts up a decent floor. I tend to like her more for cash games than tournaments though. I think she has a safe floor in a win but other fighters around her have more upside. On the other side of this matchup I don’t hate Casey as a cash punt. She lands at a high enough volume that she can potentially get 20-30 draftkings points in a loss. While saying this, I am by no means saying to stack this fight in cash. It’s a use 1 or the other for me. My preferred play is Calvillo.
Holtzman (-175) 8.5k vs Lentz (+155) 7.7k
Holtzman is a good striker and has good volume (4.47 SS’s per minute). He is athletic and has solid TD’s (2.81 per fight). Lentz is a UFC veteran. He is a decent striker (3.42 SS’s per minute) and has decent kicks. He has a solid chin and decent submissions.
Vegas is fully expecting this fight to go to decision (-275) and Holtzman getting the nod on the score cards here (+111 to win via decision).
At 8.5k Holtzman is a very solid play in all formats (also worth noting he is the 4th best value play according to our Research Station). Lentz only interests me as a tournament pivot off my Holtzman exposure (which I will have quite a bit of). Overall Holtzman is 1 of my favorite plays on the entire card.
Jury (-155) 8.8k vs Fili (+120) 7.4k
Jury is a decent striker (2.61 SS’s per minute) and decent TD’s (2.5 per fight). Fili is a good striker (3.72 per fight). He has decent TD’s (2.8 per fight) and is a ok wrestler.
This is another fight Vegas likes to go to decision (-240). Both fighters carry decision props of Jury (+164) and Fili (+187).
As you can see look at our Research Station Fili is coming in as a solid value play. I like him in all formats and think he is live to a win here. I don’t have as much interest in Jury. In a decision win I just am not confident he will reach value. I will personally either be fading Jury or have very limited exposure to him. Fili is my prefered play and I like him in all formats.
Albu (-125) 8.6k vs Whitmire (+105) 7.6k
Albu is a solid (5.26 SS’s per minute) and has good power. She has decent TD’s (3.18 per fight) and a good ground game. Whitmire is a decent striker (3.6 SS’s per minute).
Vegas likes this fight to go to decision (-205) and both fighters carry individul decision props of Albu (+196) and Whitmire (+175).
This is one of those instances where I am not necessarily agreeing with Vegas. I actually like Albu more in this match up and am not fully understanding the line movement towards Whitmire. Albu I feel has more paths to victory and the higher ceiling through her grappling and TD’s. I like Albu enough that I currently have her in my cash lineup. I understand if you want to use Whitmire based on the value we are getting on her. I just personally prefer Albu and will be rostering her in all formats.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Bermudez (-190) 9.1k vs Lopez (+165) 7.1k
Bermudez has a solid ground game (1.76 TD’s per fight) and dangerous submissions. Lopez is a good striker (3.75 SS’s per minute) and has ok power.
This fight has the 2nd highest odds to end ITD (-270) and Vegas is leaning towards Bermudez getting the early stoppage (-130 to win ITD).
I agree with the numbers above from our Research Station and will explain them. This fight will play out in 1 of 2 ways. The first and most popular one being Bermudez gets this fight to the ground locks in a submission (probably a guillotine) and gets a 1st or 2nd round win. The second outcome is Lopez is able to keep the fight standing and gets a stoppage via strikes. I think both outcomes are possible. From a draftkings perspective I actually think Lopez is the better play. We need to target some dogs in tournaments and I am not sure how popular he will be (many will flock to Fili or Whitmire). I do want exposure to Bermudez as well with this high finishing prop. This is another fight I would recommend getting heavy or 100% exposure to. My preferred play is Lopez but, if I had to pick a winner it would be Bermudez.
Gracie (-320) 9.3k vs Caceres (+225) 6.9k
Gracie is making his UFC debut here. He is a decent striker. He has solid submissions and very good Jiu Jitsu. Caceres is an ok striker (3.86 SS’s per minute). He has shown in the past that he can be takendown fairly easily.
Vegas is fully expecting this fight to end very quickly with an ITD prop of (-285) and Gracie having a solid prop of (-175 to win ITD).
Let’s not waste any time here. Gracie is more than likely winning this fight via submission. It should happen rather quickly in fact. My only issue with him is his draftkings price tag. I think other fighters around him have more upside. I do want exposure to him but, am not sure how much I will end up with. I have no problem with using him in cash games as well I am just not going that route. I am most likely having very, little exposure to Caceres if any at all. Overall my preferred play is Gracie.
Vick (-125) 8k vs Felder (+105) 8.2k
Vick is a good all-around fighter. He is a solid striker (4.16 SS’s per minute) and has good power. Felder is a good striker (3.52 SS’s per minute) and has solid kicks.
Vegas is split down the middle if this fight goes to decision or ends early. What’s interesting is in both instances a different fighter is favored. Vick favored by Vegas to win via decision (+170) and Felder is favored to win ITD (+200).
Both fighters have very, similar projections looking at our Research Station. I will likely have exposure to both. Felder could be considered the better tournament play based on ownership (Vick is the cheaper fighter and favorite now). This isn’t saying I don’t like Vick. I actually think he makes for a solid play in cash and hybrid lineups. More than likely I will have equal shares of both since they are in that mid-range.
Lee (-165) 8.9k vs Evans-Smith (+145) 7.3k
Lee is a good striker (3.73 SS’s per minute) and has solid knees. She has a good ground game and solid submissions. Evans-Smith is an ok striker (4.97 SS’s per minute) and is a decent wrestler.
Vegas likes this fight to go to the judges scorecards (-205) and Lee getting her hand raised (+163 to win via decision).
I prefer Lee in this matchup. I think she is the better overall fighter and should have the advantage wherever this fight goes. I will have some shares of Evans-Smith as a hegde. Overall my preferred play is Lee.
Rivera (-140) 8.3k vs Sterling (+120) 7.9k
Rivera is a solid striker (4.44 SS’s per minute) and has good combos. It’s also worth mentioning he has 100% TD defense. Sterling is a good striker (3.89 SS’s per minute). He is solid on the ground and has good TD’s (2.33 per fight).
Vegas sees this fight going to decision (-285) and Rivera the winner (+126 to win via decision).
I find it very, unlikely that Sterling can get his grappling going in this fight because of Rivera’s excellent TD defense. I am not sure I will have much exposure to either fighter here. This could just be all stand-up. My preferred play is Rivera.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Sanders (-185) 8.7k vs Barao (+160) 7.5k
I honestly don’t trust either fighter here. Barao is old and past his prime and Sanders has horrible Fight IQ.
Penne (-140) 8.4k vs Esquibel (+120) 7.8k
Both fighter are coming in on losing streaks. Penne is the better overall fighter. I don’t even hate idea of using her in cash if she fits in your last roster spot.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat. Also we are introducing a new feature for our VIP’s where we will have all our thoughts up-to-the-minute in 1 spot.
Also be sure you check out our VIP Podcast!
See everyone in Slack! If you are new to the sport of MMA, let us teach you the fundamentals. Become a VIP at DFS Army right now before prices go up!!
Good Luck Army!