Flynnie’s Forecheck for 2/12/19
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. When you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 10% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. In cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack up the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 12-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men and goalies in order of my preference.
FORWARDS
CHI 2: Strome, Kahun, DeBrincat – They have 5 goals in the last three games and should draw Krejci’s line for defense. This game can go 1-0 or it can shoot out. I’m still trying to gauge that, but I do know these three are rolling and DeBrincat is one of the hottest skaters in the league. I’m not going to discount CHI 1, but I think they draw a tougher matchup and I prefer #2 lines on the road.
NYR 2 – Hayes, Buchnevich, Vesey – They are heating up, not nearly at the level of Zuccarello and Zibanejad who are still cash staples, but I think this line draws WPG 1 defense and that can lead to big things. If you believe in narratives, Hayes is a pending UFA so he is looking either for a trade or a big contract this summer.
STL 1 – Schenn, O’Reilly, Tarasenko: ROR and Tarsenko have been two of the safest options in DFS for weeks now and they get a great matchup against NJ that really doesn’t do anything well. NJ is just good enough and the slate is big enough that I think this line goes a bit overlooked and they shouldn’t. Tarasenko may draw some ownership because he’s coming off a hat trick against NSH. This doesn’t feel like chasing to me because he’s been playing so well leading up to that game – in 16 games since the start of the calendar year, he has scored less than 10 FD points three times.
Honorable Mention: NSH 1, NYR 1, CHI 1 (both mentioned above as better cash options), VGK 1, COL 1, FLA 2, WPG 1, CGY 1, TB 1, DAL 1, CAR 1, BOS 1, MIN 1, TOR 3 (MDELL’s favorite- Kadri)
We crush all sports, pro or college
DEFENSE
Pietrangelo: Should be a key component in STL scoring tonight. He has showed about a 10 point floor over the last week or two and dropped 25 last time out against NSH. This is a better match up against a much worse goalie.
Spurgeon: I don’t love MIN today but they do have a few good value pieces and Spurgeon is one the most consistent players on the slate. He is almost guaranteed to get you between 8-15 points with very little variation higher or lower. Ryan Suter is the more GPP option of this pairing. Suter can get 20 or 3, He is maddening to play.
Josi: He’s the most expensive defenseman on the slate and for good reason. He has been over 15 points almost every game and consistently tests his 25-30 point ceiling. If you can fit him, do it. NSH has a dream match up tonight
Honorable Mentions: Subban, Hamilton, Hedman, Brodie, Oesterle, Krug, Cernak (punt), Giordano,
Our long-time VIP Joker Wins took down a GPP and had two other top-10 finishes
GOALIES
Binnington: 7-1-1/1.77/0.929 He is perfect for your cash games today. He’s rolling, STL is scoring and playing terrific defense matching up against NJ who is middle to bottom of the league in most categories over the last month. Binni’s price has come up from close to min salary a week or two ago, but he is still less than $8000 on FD and with goalie being so deep tonight, I don’t think you need to worry about ownership in any format tonight.
Nilsson: 4-2-0/2.18/0.943 over the last month. Craig Anderson got hurt in practice yesterday, so this confirmation came out early. Nilsson has been sneakily one of the best goalies in the league over the last month. It’s a limited sample size but OTT really seems to play well in front of him in limited opportunities since coming over from the Canucks. Carolina is the #2 team in scoring over the last month, and they are #2 in shots on goal. This gives Nilsson an amazing ceiling if he is on his game. He is $200 more than Binni and no where near as safe. However, he is my #1 GPP goalie tonight.
Stolarz: 1-0-1/0.97/0.979 He only has two starts since being called up, but he has played well in both. This is very much a GPP spot tonight against MIN. The Wild don’t score much, but they do shoot a ton and PHI is near the bottom of the league in SA. I really don’t like taking road underdogs, but I think Stolarz needs to be in your MME pool.
Honorable Mention: Rinne, Lehner, Fleury, Andersen, Hellebuyck, Rask
GOAL PREDICTION:
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after morning skate.
I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter or in Slack. Join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 10% off your membership for life.