The PGA Tour starts the ‘Florida Swing’ with the Honda Classic and ‘The Bear Trap’ !

My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!

Short course that can be dominated by a long hitter? Don’t know why I wasn’t all in on DJ last week, I was well over the field, but still. Looking back as a Monday Morning QB it seems so simple. Rory McIlroy made a bit of a charge on Sunday, but Dustin Johnson was up to the task and won going away with a score of -21. DJ and Rory topped the leaderboard all week and it was never really any doubt that the two of them would be dueling down the stretch, though a mediocre 3rd round from Rory let DJ open up a big enough gap to keep him comfortable on Sunday.

Sergio Garcia had a solid week with his irons finishing T6, and cashing his T10 bet that we touted in this article last week to help cover some of the losses from chasing Byeong Hun An. Man, Benny An! One of the most frustrating players to roster each week, he started out so hot with EAGLE, Birdie, and then proceeded to go 6 over on the next 6 holes and shoot 77 in round one. He showed some of the promise we expected on the weekend with a 64 and a 70 on Sunday, but it was too little too late for my betting card and DFS lineups.

Paul Casey continued his inspired play of late with a strong weekend finishing T3 and so did a player who we were all over at DFS Army, Ian Poulter. That’s Poulter’s third 3rd place finish in his last five tournaments. Pretty impressive form from the Englishman.

Have you played Monkey Knife Fight yet? The props are a ton of fun! And if you sign up through here you can get a FREE Month of DFS Army VIP membership!

Get a free month of VIP Now!

A big story from this week was the struggles of Bryson DeChambeau. While we were quick to crown him as the next Tiger Woods after his solid stretch of play earlier this year, he has struggled a bit and has shown his frustration on the course damaging it with his clubs in two consecutive tournaments. I think a break for him will be huge here to re-evaluate. He grinds so hard every day and I think when it doesn’t go well, it’s mentally exhausting.

Overall, a solid week for me with a positive ROI, nothing crazy and no huge sweats, but a solid week nonetheless and we live to fight another day. The tour heads to Florida for the ‘Florida Swing’ and the Honda Classic and we get a nice field with some new names taking over as some of the stars sit out this week!

VIP Shaptown88 crushed it this weekend at Daytona! Over 31K! Want to know how we do it?!

Become a VIP today and unlock it all!

Course Breakdown:

The Honda Classic takes place at PGA National Golf Club in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. PGA National is a Jack Nicklaus redesign (Tom Fazio original) and features the famed “Bear Trap”. The “Bear Trap” named after the Golden Bear (Jack Nicklaus) is a tough three-hole stretch of the par-3 15th, par-4 16th, and par-3 17th holes. The Bear Trap were all in the top 50 toughest holes on the pga tour last year and collectively played more than a stroke over par for the tournament.

PGA National is a 7140-yard par 70 that is going to test the mettle of the field this year. There are not many scoring opportunities, and while last year was a bit of an anomaly with is playing 2.3 strokes over par, it typically still plays about a stroke over par. The weather is almost always a factor here with the wind. We will see a typical sea breeze pattern off the coast with winds being lighter in the morning and progressing throughout the day. Right now its EARLY but it doesn’t look like much wind on Thursday and Friday. That being said it could change drastically. Here’s the closest tower to the course if you want to keep an eye on it. Windfinder – North Palm Beach

If the wind isn’t a factor, this course is fairly gettable. It’s not crazy long, but it does require accuracy and precision not only off the tee, but into the greens as well. At 6400 sq feet, the greens are a bit on the small side, and they are fairly sloped making them difficult to hold. We get a return to Bermuda grass on the greens this week which most players will be thankful for, but since we are so early in the year, it’s typically not fully grown in yet and makes the surface not as pure as some would like.

The key to success at this course is typically fairways and greens. Think your way around the course and put yourself in a position to take advantage of pin placements when you can. That being said, what we saw last year was, that if you can bomb it and get yourself close enough to the greens, you are able to attack them from the rough that wasn’t as penal as it had been in years past. While others may tout accuracy off the green this week, the reality is that if you hit it far enough, a good approach game can make up for missing fairways. Last year Luke List and Justin Thomas ranked 65th and 60th respectively in fairways hit, yet were 2nd and 4th in driving distance. They were able to bomb it out there, and fire at pins from the rough and as such, finished 1st and 2nd.

That’s not to say that short hitters are dead in the water here. Alex Noren finished 3rd after being 37th in driving distance and 8th in fairways hit. There are multiple ways to get around this course, but especially if there is wind I want to target the bombers here as they will have shorter yardages to deal with into these tricky greens that are made more difficult by the wind.

As with any par 70 courses, par 4 scoring will be vital. The players will get three fairly easy holes in a row to start their rounds on the front nine and then they essentially have to hold their breath until 18. With the difficult par 3’s here it may worth looking at par 3 scoring as well. Double Bogey avoidance will be massive too. Being able to handle a bad shot or drop and not make a huge number is often the difference between making the cut and heading home on Friday night.

One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here!

–>Domination Station PGA Tutorial <–

Key Stats:

Key Stats to look for this week – Driving Distance, SG – Approach, Birdies Gained, Par 4 Scoring, Par 3 Scoring, Course History, and Projected Course Score.

You can find all of these key stats in our DFS Army research station accessible ONLY for our VIPs.

–> PGA Research Station <–

The Field:

In this section, I’ll cover who is in the field this week, the odds, any pricing discrepancies, and a few of my favorite plays on first look!

We get an extremely interesting field this week and one that will be fun to play as many of the so-called ‘stars’ have opted out of this event after playing at the WGC Mexico and it’s going to force you to make uncomfortable DFS lineups with scrubs you have maybe never heard of.

Justin Thomas leads the way here as the favorite and rightfully so for the defending champion. He had a rough week in Mexico and is likely licking his chops at the prospect of getting off poa annua grass and back to bermuda. There are a couple of other names that that top the odds list here including Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler, but the guy I want to have a ton of exposure to this week is Sergio Garcia.

Sergio is coming off a week where he putted incredibly well and had the iron game to back it up. He finished in a tie for 6th in Mexico and comes back to a track that he has had quite a bit of success at, including a narrow loss to Adam Scott a few years ago. Form is right, irons are great, looks like a slam dunk play with Sergio this week. Speaking of Scott, he is firmly in play with his excellent iron play.

After Sergio, the board gets entirely murky. Byeong Hun An has a fifth-place finish here last year and outside of a terrible round 1 played pretty well in Mexico, including a 64 on Saturday, but the player I’m looking at in this range is Billy Horschel. Billy Ho missed the cut here last year in the middle of a string of awful form, but prior to that, he had back to back top ten finishes at this event. He is a streaky player and while not necessarily contending for wins, he has had a string of solid performances, having to go all the way back to last years RBC Canadian Open to find a tournament he missed the cut in. While not necessarily an outright bet for me, he makes an intriguing DFS play this week.

Michael Thompson is going to get a ton of buzz as a former winner here and on a string of really good form, but we need to remember he is Michael Thompson and literally hasn’t been priced this low ever. Another former runner up here though peaks my interest as a potential pivot off the chalky Thompson and that is Russell Knox. Knox has started to really find his form the last couple weeks and while not outstanding in Mexico, didn’t really do anything that poorly. A return to bermuda will benefit him and he’ll likely go under-owned. I’m not willing to jump at 50-1 here for an outright, but again, another solid DFS play.

After these guys, the field really gets uncomfortable. Some of the players that are ‘deep’ bombs that I have interest on my initial look this week are:

Harold Varner III, Scott Langley, Rory Sabbatini, Denny McCarthy, CT Pan, Lucas Bjerregaard, Keith Mitchell

Overall, this is a fun week and I can’t wait to break it down more in depth, including ownership projections and pivots, in my weekly ‘Chalk Donkey’ article for our DFS Army VIPS!

Check out the incredible NHL Content we have for our DFS Army VIPs! With wins like this you will want to get in!

—> DFS Army NHL Content <—

Beat the Bookie Betting Card:

Something new I’m adding each week to this article is my personal betting card for the week for Outrights, First Round Leaders, Top 5’s and Top 10’s. The real bread and butter with golf betting is a tournament and round matchups but I’m saving those for our Beat the Bookie VIPs!

As a rule, I typically don’t bet many outrights under +3500 unless its an extremely weak field (DJ at the FedEx St. Jude last year comes to mind) It’s just not a +EV most weeks when you think about 156 guys teeing it up. Hitting 3-4 outrights a year is a fantastic year for most golf bettors. The return on investment of hitting an outright at 50-1 can pay for a long dry spell (which is fairly typical in golf betting if you are only playing Outrights, FRLs and T5/T10).

This is a really hard tournament to handicap for me, and I think I’m going to go with a bit of a stars and scrubs approach this week and get away from the rule I stated above and take a few cracks at the favorites.

I love Sergio Garcia here this week. The 16-1 odds are not very nice, but I really think he has a great shot to win this tournament. He’s going to be one of my highest owned DFS plays, and while I like Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, and Rickie Fowler, I just don’t feel like dipping that low on the board. 16-1 still feels like value and one I’ll eat.

After Sergio, there’s not much I want to touch until we get into the 100-1 guys. I feel like these players have just as good of a chance to win as their counterparts at 40 and 50-1. CT Pan has the picture perfect game for this course. Fairways and Greens. If he putts well he will be in contention. Had a top 20 here last year so he knows his way around. Low ball flight shouldn’t be affected much by the wind. He’s a great play at these odds.

Harold Varner represents the other way to get it done here. Smash it and go find it. He’s went MC, 10th, MC in his last three events so hopefully, this is the event he figures it out again and pops. He typically crushes it with the approach as well so I fancy him a good course fit. Made the cut but struggled here last year. Is a southern boy having played at Eastern Carolina and should be comfortable playing in the wind.

Lukas Bjerregaard is just too good to be 200-1 here regardless of last week’s performance in Mexico. He’s the 51st ranked player in the world and has won in consecutive years on the European Tour. Just too much value in this number regardless of if you think he’ll win or not. Worth a shot.

When T5/T10/T20 and First Round Leader markets are up, this article will be updated with my card!

I’ll have Head to Head and full tournament matchups posted for our Beat the Bookie VIPs on Wednesday. And there are some reaaaaly juicy ones this week! These are truly where you can make your money in golf betting, while not as sexy or as big as an outright win, they are much more profitable.

* Not a Beat the Bookie VIP yet?! *

These guys at ‘Beat the Bookie’ are crushing it on the daily and you’re gonna want in! Tell em’ UPNORTH sent ya and you’ll get 10% off for life!

Want to try a free month of DFS Army VIP Membership? See How

Final Thoughts:

This is a fun week to get back in the swing of things with a full field, a cut, and no more stinking poa annua greens! I’m excited to make lineups and crush this week!

We will have content for you all through the week at DFS Army. Our research station and domination station optimizer will be updated on Tuesday and I will have my full Chalk Donkey article breaking down all the ownership and GPP strategy for our VIP’s on Tuesday night! If you aren’t a VIP yet, use code UPNORTH for 20% your first month!