Stacked Field? Check! Classic Course? Check! Tiger? Check! The Genesis Open is looking like one of the best tournaments of the year!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
What a week…and not in a good way! Phil Mickelson had a fantastic finish at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and took down Paul Casey who can never close. Paul Casey collapsing with the lead on Sunday is a thing. He’s now 0-4 with 3 stroke leads heading into round four. It’s essentially free money to bet against him. Outside of Phil being my One and Done pick for me, it was arguably my worst week of the year by a landslide. I should have known. This tournament is always a gong show. With the amateurs, slow rounds, and randoms littering the leaderboard year after year, it’s never a very profitable week for me. I had a chance to salvage something with a few of the bets on my card, but Rafa Cabrera Bello fell apart on Sunday, falling out of the top 5, and top 10, all the way to 28th. Trey Mullinax made a run to get me a T20 but just bubbled it. And our boy Ernie Els couldn’t close on Sunday for the T20.
Weeks, where you struggle in DFS and betting, make it easy to completely change your process and the way you play. While I think it’s important to revisit your process and see if there are tweaks you can make, don’t completely change what you are doing. The same thing goes for when you have good weeks. Small tweaks, but don’t get crazy. Golf is a long season, and DFS, in general, is a grind, you will have bad weeks. Don’t compound a bad week with another by going nuts and completely changing your process. For example, I had a tough week, and I’m not an MME guy. Completely changing my process would be going from the 3-4 core lineups I build to building 150 lineups and entering them everything. That’s likely a losing strategy. Don’t overreact. Small tweaks and continue to do what you were successful doing in the past. 3-4 weeks of a struggle? Then it’s likely time to look at a change.
One thing that helps me when I have a tough week is spending some time on another DFS sport. With the first NASCAR race of the year taking place on Sunday it was a great time to jump in and utilize the fantastic resources we have at DFS Army. NASCAR is one of our most profitable sports and is led by our very own PGA guy, Taco.
I watched/listened to Taco’s Podcast (Check it out! He goes over all the new additions to the Research Station this year!) and read Brady’s Sway Bar and boom! $60 into $333! Softened the blow from a tough week in golf.
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Course Breakdown:
The Genesis Open takes place at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California. (Check the link for the Weather there this week!). Riviera is a 7,341-yard par 71 with Poa Annua Greens. The greens are on the small side and run fairly fast. The average Greens in Regulation for the tournament is 56% and the fairways hit % is even worse at 54%. This is a tough golf course that requires players to not only hit driver, but hit driver fairly accurately. You also need to be able to shape the ball both ways to access some of these pins. Fairways are key as the pins are almost inaccessible from the rough, given how hard the greens are. Anything coming from the rough is likely to roll off.
You aren’t necessarily dead in the rough, you can still make par, but you are definitely grinding. The key to this course is to think one or two shots ahead. Where do you need to put it off the tee to be able to attack the pin? Where do you need to leave it on the green to give you a shot at birdie, do you leave it short and let it run up or fly it all the way there? Can you do that from the rough if you miss a bit right? Riviera is definitely a thinkers course and one that patience is clearly a virtue.
The field this week is absolutely stacked. Six of the Top Ten in the Official World Golf Rankings are teeing it up and thirteen of the top 20. Dustin Johnson, Bryson Dechambeau, Justin ThomasP, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, and of course the man himself, Tiger Woods. It should be a fantastic week of golf at a great venue.
If we look at the holes, we have a par 35 on the front and par 3
6 on the back. As a whole, the course played .76 strokes over par last year. It was actually much worse over the first two days and played under par on the weekend. In fact, the cut last year was +3 and has been over par every year going back to 2009 when it was even.
If I haven’t gotten that point across yet, hopefully, that did. This is a difficult test, but, birdies are out there if you position yourself correctly.
Length off the tee is important, but not the end all be all. Shorter players who are used to hitting hybrids and long irons into greens can have success here. Kevin Na and Adam Hadwin are both in the bottom half of the tour in driving distance and have contended here in the past. Same with Ryan Moore.
Where that distance comes into play is on the long par 4’s and par 3’s. The Par 5’s are mostly gettable by everyone, but the long par 4’s over 450 yards (There are 6) are going to be hard to reach for many of the shorter hitters, looking at longer irons into these greens that are small and difficult to hold as it is. The par 3 4th is a beast at 236 yards and was the third most difficult hole on the course last year and had the second most double bogeys. That’s a poke for some of the shorter hitters on tour, likely having to grab a hybrid or put a 4 wood in the bag this week whereas a guy like Dustin Johnson is hitting 4 or 5 iron.
If you look at the leaderboard and winners for the past few years, there is a direct correlation to the Masters. A similar test to Augusta National in that you need to think your way around and place the ball in the right spot, we can look to players who have done well at Augusta to do well here. There is a long list of players who have had success at both events, including winning both. Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson Nick Faldo, Fred Couples, Craig Stadler, Tom Watson, Arnold Palmer, Sam Snead, Ben Hogan, Byron Nelson, and Jimmy Demaret have all accomplished the Genesis Open (Los Angeles Open) and Masters double. A whole slew of other golfers have had success at both courses as well. In the field this week we have Dustin Johnson, Ernie Els, Charley Hoffman, Matt Kuchar, Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Ryan Moore, and oh yeah, Tiger Woods.
It looks like a fantastic week of golf with a great leaderboard and after last week’s debacle, I’m looking forward to it!
One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here!
–>Domination Station PGA Tutorial <–
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Matt Kuchar leads the way as the best value on the slate on DK. He’s had decent history here, nothing crazy, one top ten in the last 7 years, but his current form is just hot fire. He hasn’t finished lower than 22nd since the Shriners last fall. There is some controversy surrounding him this week after the Golf.com interview with his caddie from the Mayakoba Classic.
https://twitter.com/GOLF_com/status/1095314588042694658/photo/1
Kuchar essentially only paid him 5k after winning 1.296 million. Not a good look for one of apparently the nicest guys on tour.
Bryson Dechambeau is one of the hottest golfers on tour, winning twice in his last 6 starts, and four times in his last 10 starts. That’s insane. While only having a 41st here and a WD, it really shouldn’t matter as his current form is insane. It’s possible that he might be forgotton here given the amount of other traditional stars in the field.
Keegan Bradley is likely to go under the radar this week, and has seen a massive odds drift of over 13% since the start of the week. Since the Anchor Ban on putting has taken place, Keegs hasn’t quite had the type of success he had earlier in his career at Riviera, but his play in the last year has been tremendous. He hasn’t missed a cut since last June’s US Open! He’s also the 32nd ranked golfer in the world and priced on DK as the 39th, and obviously there are players ranked ahead of him not in the field. These are the sort of value situations I really like to take advantage of.
Justin Thomas is also likely to go a bit overlooked since he doesn’t have quite the pedigree here as others in his price range, but no one in the world is hitting their irons as well as JT. He’s gained 18.7 strokes approach over his last 20 rounds….thats incredible.
SG: Approach (Last 10)
Hitting Greens in Regulation is difficult here. Actually, that’s probably an understatement. Of the 64 normal tour stops we have in our database, Riviera ranks 61st in greens in regulation %. Being hot with your irons and able to fire at these pins will be huge this week.
Hideki Matsuyama is one of the worlds best iron players and is one of my favorite plays this week at $9300 on DK. We’ll have more on him later.
Bryson’s hot fire play lately doesn’t even include his win in Saudi Arabia where we have no shot tracker. He’s an elite play this week. We talked about JT earlier as well and he’s in a great spot.
Davis Love is not someone I’m going to target here regardless of his current SG: Approach, he’s just not good enough to contend on a week to week basis anymore.
Cam Smith is interesting though. He’s had success here in the past and he popped in our Value tab as well. He’s someone I have interest in, depending on how chalky he is. At the lower price tag, he might be chalky and if thats the case there is other pivots in that price range.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score)is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
No surprise here at the top with some of the worlds best teeing it up this week. The one player I really like that might come a bit underowned after a lackluster performance last week is Tommy Fleetwood.
Fleetwood has taken one trip around Riviera and ended up finishing 37th. Getting his feet wet here will help, and so will a full week in the states after being overseas. I think Fleet makes a ton of sense here. He hits the ball a long ways for a skinny guy, has an excellent approach and around the green game, and he SCORES. His Birdie+ Gained is second in the field to only Justin Thomas.
Driving Distance:
I typically don’t like to target Driving Distance as it usually doesn’t matter that much, but here we do so that guys who hit the ball a long ways get a bit of a bonus. I included the top 15 in the screenshot with their accuracy and Greens in Regulation %. A combination of the three is likely the key to a victory here this week.
Looking here, I really want to target the guys who are hitting the ball a long ways AND hitting greens, if they are accurate that’s just another bonus. You could make some pretty solid rosters with just keeping your player pool to this group.
Outside of the studs (DJ, JT, Rory), Patrick Cantlay at the bottom sticks out as a prime candidate, so does Jon Rahm. Some of the cheaper value bombers like Luke List and Cam Champ should be great plays as well.
I also like to target the driving distance agnle this week because of the rain in the forecast. They are forecasting for over two inches of rain for the area and that means that ball will not roll out. This is already a fairly long golf course and will be made longer by the soggy conditions. Short hitters (less than 280 average) may end up not even be able to compete.
Fantasy Points Gained: Long Par 4’s
There are 6 holes that we would consider “long par 4’s” this week. That means that 1/3 of the course falls into this category…probably pretty important right?
I’m just going to have to play Bryson DeChambeau aren’t I? Man, he just keeps showing up. Same for DJ and JT.
Kevin Streelman pops here coming off a fantastic performance last week. I’m not sure I’m going to fall into that trap though, as his course history here is awful.
Julian Etulain is an interesting cheap option though. He hits about 66% of the greens in regulation and pokes it out there. He presents one of the best values below 6.5K.
One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though only 134 this week, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Hideki Matsuyama DK $9,300/FD $11,100
Projected GPP ownership: 23%-26%
Apparently, everyone saw the same value that I saw in Hideki early in the week as he is going to likely be the highest owned player in the field. Deki has been playing fantastic and is chalk that I think you can eat, especially in cash games.
Hideki just does everything really well. He hits it a mile. He’s got great irons. and he makes a ton of birdies while avoiding the big number. Is there any reason other than ownership to fade him here?
As usual, if Deki is going to struggle anywhere its around and on the green. He’s an awful chipper and his putting is even worse. On the Kikuyu grass here you have to get under the ball and fly it to the hole and that is something he’s struggled with throughout his career. He should be able to throw darts in the soggy conditions, but if he misses greens here he’s going to be in trouble.
Look, I love him this week and he was an instabet at that number of 28-1 when odds opened this week. Those odds are baked into his cheap pricing here but at 1/4 of the field owning him in GPP he’s an easy fade for me. Cash/hybrid lineups? Lock him in but in big GPPs I’ll at the very least be underweight.
Above 9K Pivot:
Xander Schauffele: DK $9,400/FD $11,200
Projected GPP Ownership: 8%-12%
The direct pivot from Hideki is only $100 more on both sites and that is Xander Schauffele. Xander has been on a pretty incredible run, and had Bryson Dechambeau not been on a tear here the last couple weeks we might be talking about X as the hottest golfer coming into this tournament.
In the last couple of months, Xander has two wins, four top 10’s and no missed cuts. His wins and top tens have all come in tournaments where he played against the best of the best as well. A stacked field here suits him as he often plays his best when challenged like this.
X beats Hideki in pretty much every important statistical area, including birdies gained and projected rounds core. He’s a better course fit here and makes fewer big numbers than Matsuyama as evidenced by his superior double bogey avoidance number. Xander really has no weakness in his game. He doesn’t have something he’s outstanding at like Hideki does with his approach game, but he is just solid all across the board. He had a 9th in his debut here last year and will look to improve upon that this year.
So essentially, we get a superior golfer with winning upside at half the ownership? Yes, please. Another direct pivot off Deki that will be low owned as well is Paul Casey who is coming off a disappointing final round collapse.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Bubba Watson, Tony Finau, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm
Notably missing? Tiger Woods I have him around 12ish% owned. An underowned Tiger even at a track he hasn’t had a ton of success at? Yes please.
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Tommy Fleetwood: DK $8600/FD $10,100
Projected GPP Ownership: 16%-20%
My entire betting card is chalk this week…
Even off a disappointing week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Tommy and his hair are getting a lot of love this week at a decreased price point. This is a good course fit for him and the projected rain in the forecast should benefit him as he is used to playing in soggy conditions.
Whenever I think of someone playing well in the rain I always come back to this scene from Seinfeld. Tommy’s father was a mudder, his mother was a mudder!
Beyond that, Tommy is just a great value this week. Check out all that green! If I have any concern, it’s likely just that he hasn’t been great off the tee and his approach numbers last week weren’t spectacular, but having a week in the US under his belt and has played here before should make him comfortable this week.
I can’t in good mind tell you to fade the chalk here with Tommy. He’s a cut machine, and he’s just too cheap for how good of a spot he is in. Remember. You don’t need to fade all tlhe chalk, but if you eat some, you need to differentiate elsewhere.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Louis Oosthuizen: DK $8000/FD $1000
Projected GPP Ownership: 6%-9%
This is the ultimate boom or bust play here as Louis can absolutely crush and contend…or WD three minutes before lock (or after lock), but for Louis to be at this price and projected ownership, regardless of field, is an absolute steal.
The 26th ranked player in the world has gone 4th, 7th, 1st, and 3rd in his last four events. Many will be gunshy of him after he WD’d a few weeks ago and burned 30% of the field, but its a great spot for him here. He fits the Augusta National comparison as he has had continued success there, and is an excellent ball striker and has a world-class short game.
I’m going to jump on the Louie bandwagon here at low ownership and hope that his mattress is shipped to the hotel in time for him to have a good nights sleep and contend this week.
Other highly owned players (over 12%): Adam Hadwin, Cam Smith, Adam Scott
Check out my Preview Article for my full betting card!
–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – Genesis Open <–
Below 7.5K
With the majority of the ownership clocking in up top and a balanced build making a lot of sense this week, we don’t have a ton of chalk down here. The highest owned player below 7.5K will likely be Keegan Bradley at around 10%-12%. Keegan is a CORE play for me at this price due to his ball striking and cut making prowess, So lets find another low owned gem down here that can help us win a GPP.
Luke List: DK $7400/FD $9200
Projected Ownership: 5%-7%
Course will be wet right?
You need to hit it long right?
Gotta hit some greens in regulation here correct?
Helllllooooo Luke List!
List actually comes in at 21st in projected Fantasy Scoring here and its no surprise because he absolutely bombs it. List crushes long par 4’s and short par 5’s. He was 24th in par 5 scoring average on tour last year and should be able to take advantage of these gettable par 5’s.
List also has two top 26 finishes here and at this price if he makes the cut he is going to hit value. The goal for List is to get him to the weekend where he typically scores better. If he can make the cut and get to the weekend, I like him to contend here for a top 20 finish.
Down below 7.5K you really need to buy in narratives with guys because they are priced down here for a reason. Wet golf course that rewards guys who bomb it? Give me someone like Luke List every day of the week.
Other highly owned players in GPP (over 10%): Keegan Bradley (most ownership will be in a balanced type lineup)
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page.
Final Thoughts:
I love this tournament. It’s a classic course with a stacked field and our first non rotation tournament in a while. Don’t go nuts, but don’t be afraid to play cash, gpp, h2h, everything. I love H2H in golf. Typically its the most profitable of any of the typical cash games. Get involved, especially on DK where the H2h lobby is superior to FD’s.
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!
Join us in our coaching channels this week and let’s win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!