DFS Golf: Chalk Donkey – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Another week with a Pro-Am Format, 3 courses, and a 54 Hole cut but we get a preview of Pebble Beach who is hosting the US Open later this summer!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
What a week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. What looked like a Rickie Fowler and Justin Thomas duel in the desert turned into a Fowler run away and then into a typical Fowler collapse and finally a Fowler win! The drama on Sunday was fantastic. I still don’t know why Rickie chose to drop where he did, and not go back to his original spot, though in the moment I can see not wanting to hit that shot again. I was cheering hard for a Rickie loss as it would have helped me bink a GPP, but you know what else would have helped? Everyone in the tournament not melting down on Sunday too. Round 4 played 2 whole strokes harder than Round 3, and just under a stroke harder than round 2 which was the second most difficult round of the week.
We were all over Justin Thomas here at DFS Army as a core play and while a solo third finish is nice, and he definitely hit value, it would have been more profitable had he made a charge on the weekend instead of faltering. He was really struggling with his putter and burned a ton of edges, had that been even just a smidge better he could have been right in the mix.
We were all over Byeong Hun An at his price and he looked like he was going to pay us off until he absolutely fell apart on Sunday making 5 bogeys in a row at the turn. Still, a T20 isn’t horrible. I’m also just going to keep playing Sungjae Im until I can’t anymore. As you know I’m a huge believer in #SUNGJAESZN and he continues to pay us off each and every week.
We have a winner! For the first time this year we hit an outright with Rickie Fowler. While I was disappointed to see him pull out for DFS purposes this outright soothed a little bit of the pain. This was a great week for betting as we were in the positive for 16 UNITS! We were close to a MASSIVE week, but the Ben An and Martin Laird collapse on Sunday took them out of the T5/T10 range. I was holding out hope that An would make a run on Sunday as I had a big boy bet on him, but it wasn’t in the cards.
We also cashed 2 out of 3 Tournament H2H’s that I reserved for our VIPs at Beat the Bookie. All in all a really positive week from a DFS and Betting perspective and we hope to keep the momentum rolling into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
The Chalk Donkey pivot picks worked out pretty well for us as well:
Justin Thomas: 3rd
Adam Hadwin: T44 (I’ll take it after a disasterous start!)
Steve Stricker: MC (I should have known better, but I’d do it again. The value at that price was too big)
The GPP core went 12/17 making the cut and including the Winner in Rickie Fowler. A pretty solid week, but as usual it was all about getting the right combos. The big killer for me outside of Stricker was the collapse by Luke List in round 2 to just miss the cut. That one hurt a lot of lineups, but actually probably boosted me into some bigger money on Fanduel.
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Course Breakdown:
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes place on three courses in Pebble Beach, California and is formerly known as the Bing Crosby National Pro-Am or the Crosby Clam Bake. This event has taken place since 1937 and is one of the oldest running events on tour. AT&T has sponsored the event since 1986. The three courses are Pebble Beach Golf Links, SpyGlass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club. These three have been in the rotation since 2010.
Phil Mickelson is a three-time winner here, while Dustin Johnson and Brandt Snedeker and two-time winners. Other course horses playing this week are Jason Day, Patrick Reed, Jimmy Walker, and Jordan Spieth.
Pebble Beach is the only course players will play twice during this event, and is actually the shortest of the three courses but played the most difficult last year. (typically Spyglass plays the toughest) Pebble is always a tough test regardless of weather, because of the minuscule greens there. With an average size of 3000 square feet, they are incredibly hard to hit, throw in the wind off the ocean or rain and it becomes even harder. The greens at Pebble (and the rest of the courses) are poa annua, so not only are they hard to hit, but when you get there they are often bumpy.
The key to success at Pebble Beach is keeping it in the fairway and attacking the Par 5’s. Players need to be aggressive and fire at these small greens if they want to go low. A strong around the green game, while not necessarily essential for scoring, is key to saving par when you don’t hit the green in regulation.
Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula are both a bit easier of a test, but nothing to shake your head at. Spyglass is inland a bit and isn’t affected by the weather as much as the other two courses. There may be a bit of a draw advantage to playing it on a day when the other courses are playing tough. It’s typically a course that is very challenging given the trees and tight fairways.
Monterey is what some would consider the easiest of the three courses to play, yet many guys tend to struggle here including Dustin Johnson who has never quite figured it out, despite winning twice. It plays as a bit of a funky par 71 with 34 on the front and 37 on the back. The greens are the easiest to hit of any of the courses and it has played about half a stroke under par since 2010.
Weather is ALWAYS a factor here whether its rain, or wind, or even sun and this year looks to be no different.
It looks like we will get some rain there early in the week but it won’t really warm up enough to dry the course out at all. I’m expecting a somewhat soggy week with variable winds. That’s exactly the OPPOSITE of last year where we had warm weather and the ball running out like crazy all over the course. To me that means we target the guys who have long high ball flights and are aggressive shot makers….so basically Dustin Johnson. Those are the types of players that have success here when the course plays like it will this week (which is pretty normal, last week was a bit of an anomaly).
It looks a little wet….
When it’s been raining a “little bit” but you’re at your favorite course and have a putt for birdie at the last! @attproam @PGATOUR #pebblebeach pic.twitter.com/ijSRCr0t1q
— Rafa Cabrera Bello (@RCabreraBello) February 4, 2019
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Not only is the rain going to lengthen the course, but the wind also looks like its going to play a big role, particularly on Friday/Saturday.
Neither day looks great for the afternoon tee times. It’s not necessarily going to be an AM/PM split since all the golfers will be going off pretty close to each other in terms of tee times, but more of targeting guys who get Spyglass on Friday or Saturday where they are a little more protected. Who are those guys you ask? Well, we don’t have tee times yet, but here are the course rotations.
Spyglass Hill = SH, Monterey Peninsula = MP, Pebble Beach = PB
SH/PB/MP
PB/MP/SH
MP/SH/PB
Looking at the current forecast, it appears that Friday will be the windiest day of the three, with heavy sustained 21 mph winds in the afternoon and some rain. Pebble Beach is hosting this summers US Open, and they are already starting to tighten the fairways and grow the rough out to get ready for it, so I also want to avoid Pebble on the windiest day if at all possible.
This is a fun week, but a difficult one as the three-course rota is always hard to contend with. We also only have shot tracker on Pebble Beach which makes things difficult from a Showdown/Round betting perspective.
One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here!
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What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Even priced up for the first time all year, Sungjae Im still provides a pretty big value here. The big concern I have with Im is that he has never played here before and first-timers tend to have a bit of a rough go here in their maiden trip around these three courses. If you’ve read any of my articles before you know I have a man-crush on Sungjae and am the president of the #SUNGJAESZN fan club, so I’m not going to be off him here at all even if he ends up being somewhat chalky.
Right below my boy in pricing is Rafa Cabrera-Bello. Rafa is a self-proclaimed Pebble Beach lover and event went out in the pouring rain on Monday to get a practice round in. He was 26th here last year and while he missed the cut last week (which actually may be a benefit with the travel time) he was on a string of really solid form. I love him at this price.
Any time Tommy Fleetwood tees it up on the PGA tour he is in play, but now we have a sloppy windy course where you need to position the ball off the tee and fire at pins to score and we get an all in spot on Tommy and his hair. Between Finau and Tommy Fleetwood priced up here and the Dustin Johnson/Jason Day paired up top, we might get one of these guys at low ownership, and the hope is that would be Fleetwood.
Dustin Johnson‘s in a slam dunk spot here as well as he absolutely crushes this course. He fell apart in 2010 during the US Open in what should have been his first Major, but since then has absolutely crushed this tournament. The concern is that he’s traveling across the pond after winning in Saudi Arabia last week. Jet lag is a concern but I would be more concerned if he had never played here before, but his excellent course history means that he likely doesn’t need to play any practice rounds to feel comfortable out there.
Brandt Snedeker is a two-time winner here and very rarely struggles around this course. He’s an excellent poor weather player and makes a great value this week as well.
SG: Approach (Last 10)
With the small greens (particularly at Pebble Beach) gaining strokes with approach is huge here. Looking at the last 10 rounds gives us a sample of the last 2 and a half tournaments, showing us who is hot with those irons recently.
Chesson Hadley was a fantastic showdown play last week. Tons of birdies. Tons of bogeys. If he is able to figure it out a little this week at 7100 he is an absolute steal. He’s had two top tens here in 4 starts. I love him this week even though I’m a little concerned that if the approach game is off a bit that he’ll have to rely on his terrible around the green game.
Gooch’s luck ran out last week but I do think that he might be an interesting play at low ownership. Chez Reavie looks to be massively chalky this week and I just can’t get on board with his price regardless of whatever sort of form and course history he has coming in.
DJ…yep. Lock and load.
Scott Piercy always crushes the approach game but can he putt? He has been fairly consistent lately with finishes of 20, 57, 33, and 19 in his last four and he actually has gained strokes putting his last four (on poa) and has a top 20 here last year. At $7900 I’m VERY interested in Piercy this week.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score)is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
No surprise here that DJ and Fleetwood pop, but surprising that bombers like Cam Champ, and Keith Mitchell show up as possible good course fits at these three courses. (I’m not surprised that Tony Finau does…he’s a stat darling)
Mitchell burned a TON of people the last few weeks, and as such will likely be low owned. He made the cut here in his first appearance last year so might be worth a flyer.
Finau is another one who has burned people recently and at his high price tag its possible that he comes in underowned and if that’s the case I think he makes a smash play.
Driving Accuracy %
I typically don’t like to target Driving Accuracy as it usually doesn’t matter that much but it looks like here, especially at Monterey, driving accuracy is important.
No surprise that Jimmy “Funky but it works” Furyk leads the way here. He always is up at the top when it comes to Driving Accuracy. Ryan Armour almost set a tour record this year for fairways hit in a row, he has also had a couple of top 30 finishes here. Both have pretty poor form coming in though.
Chez Reavie again… Seriously you’re not going to talk me into him this week! (ok maybe I’ll have a bit, but that PRICE!)
The guy I’m really interested in here though is Shane Lowry. Lowry is coming off a big win, he typically does very well here, hits tons of fairways, and plays well in the wind/rain. Give me that big Irishman!
One thing, that puts the DFS Army VIP’s at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. Check out how that works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though only 134 this week, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Dustin Johnson: DK $11,400/FD $12,400
Projected GPP ownership: 23%-26%
Sometimes…you have to eat the chalk.
Dustin Johnson is likely going to be the highest owned golfer on the slate this week. The only reason he might not be is if players get cute and fade him due to his price. Don’t do that.
In his last 7 trips here he has five top 5’s, a 41st, and an MC.
He won last week. (sure maybe he’s a bit jet-lagged…its also DJ and he DGAF)
DJ finishes in the top 50% of a field at a ridiculous 95% rate, top 25% at 84% and top 10% at 68%. In this field that Top 10% rate is 25% better than his next closest competitor (Patrick Cantlay) 25%!!!!!!
DJ’s strokes gained stats are also insane. He crushes is off the tee and approach and while the putting might be a bit of a concern a return to poa will be beneficial as he’s actually top 15 in the field in strokes gained putting on poa annua.
Seriously. Don’t get cute. Play DJ. Don’t think twice about it.
Above 9K Pivot:
Tommy Fleetwood: DK $10,300/FD $11,500
Projected GPP Ownership: 12%-15%
While you won’t see any recent form in our research station because it only accounts for PGA tour stats, here is what Tommy has been doing since last year’s Tour Championship where he finished 11th.
Four top 10’s, 3 top 20’s and a mediocre 42nd. Not bad for ol’ Tommy Boy.
The concern with Fleetwood is will he be able to come back across the pond to the US for the first time this year, and compete on 3 brand new courses? While he has obviously played there multiple times, his track record at the Alfred Dunhill Links where they rotate courses (and play a pro-am) is solid (2nd last year). So the format won’t be much of an issue for him.
The short courses will benefit his style of play as well. Tommy is a fairways and greens type of player. He’s not incredibly long off the tee, but he strikes the ball well and puts himself in a position to score.
He crushes it off the tee, is great around the green and putts well. We also get a wet, soggy, windy tournament which benefits a player like Tommy. While this tournament has traditionally been dominated by Americans, this is setting up to be a bit of a slogfest, which should benefit the players from Europe who are used to playing in these conditions. It’s not that they are ‘better’ per se at playing in these conditions, it’s just that they have more experience.
I like Fleetwood as a bit of a pivot off the top tier of plays and with Jason Day and Dustin Johnson sucking up all the ownership, he should be in a position to come in a bit underowned.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Chez Reavie
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Brandt Snedeker: DK $8200/FD $10900
Projected GPP Ownership: 16%-20%
Sneds is looking to be one of the highest owned plays in this range (along with one of my favorites Russell Henley), but is a much better value on DK than he is on FD where I think he comes in lower owned.
Sneds has some of the best course history of anyone here, including two wins in 2015 and 2013.
The concern with Brandt is that he doesn’t hit the ball very far, and he’s not super accurate off the tee either. On a wet course if he can’t get it out there, and ends up in the rough he’s in a big trouble. He also doesn’t rack up the birdies. In a slog fest though like were expecting he might be in the mix if he can find some fairways.
The bigger concern for me here is the course draw. Playing Monterey on the windiest day is going to be difficult. He does get Spyglass Hill on Saturday which will also be windy, but not as bad as Friday.
Snedeker also hasn’t had a top 10 since the Safeway Open. That’s 8 tournaments in a row without a top ten, including two tournaments that weren’t full field events.
I like Sneds and given a different draw I might be interested…but not at close to 20% ownership. He’s a fade for me this week.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Matthew Fitzpatrick: DK $8600/FD $9700
Projected GPP Ownership: 6%-9%
Another Euro here, as I’m hoping we buck the trend of Europeans struggling a bit at this tournament. Fitzy has the same course draw as Snedeker and I think he’s more of a class player at this point in their careers.
Over the last few months, Fitz has been playing some really solid golf, granted not in America.
Fitzy didn’t play in Saudi Arabia and has been in the states getting acclimated which helps as he’s not just flying back right away.
What Matthew does well is hit fairways and greens. He’s a smart player, doesn’t put himself in too bad of positions and works his way around the course which is exactly what we need this week. I love him as a low owned pivot off of guys that are going to be highly owned here. Another slightly higher owned play in this same price range that I love is Shane Lowry.
Other highly owned players in GPP (over 15%): Russell Henley, Shane Lowry, Russell Knox, Branden Grace, Rafa Cabrera Bello
Check out my Preview Article for my full betting card!
–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am <–
Below 7.5K
With the majority of the ownership clocking in up top and a balanced build making a lot of sense this week, we don’t have a ton of chalk down here. The highest owned player below 7.5K will likely be Trey Mullinax (who I love this week) at around 10%-12%. So lets find a gem down low that can help us win a GPP.
Jimmy Walker: DK $7100/FD $8900
Projected GPP Ownership: 3%-5%
Jimmy Walker crushes this tournament. Seriously. It’s what he does. Last year, he came in off a string of 5 missed cuts in a row dating back to the PGA Championship, and a T63 two weeks before and smashed for an 8th place finish. Whatever it is about these courses he absolutely loves them.
He’s been playing decent this year outside of a poor performance at the Farmers (which is typical for him) and is starting to find his stroke with his putter. Gaining strokes the last 10 and 25 rounds.
Jimmy is a guy who plays well at certain courses. TPC Sawgrass, TPC San Antonio, Augusta, Pebble Beach. This is just another course he is comfortable at and the results show it. Jimmy also makes a ton of cuts, 81% cut rate which is good for 10th in the field. All you really need him to do at this price is make the cut. He does that and you’re golden.
Other highly owned players in GPP (over 8%): Kevin Streelman, Trey Mullinax, Chesson Hadley, Corey Connors
GPP Core:
Here are the core players that I will be using to make my GPP teams this week. Obviously, they won’t be the only players I use but it can give you an idea of who I’m on.
Dustin Johnson
Jason Day
Tommy Fleetwood
Patrick Cantlay
Phil Mickelson
Paul Casey
Shane Lowry
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Sungjae Im
Rafael Cabrera Bello
Russell Knox
Russell Henley
Nick Watney
Trey Mullinax
Kevin Streelman
Matt Jones
Jimmy Walker
Scott Stallings
Chesson Hadley
Brandon Harkins
Ernie Els
Julian Etulain
Final Thoughts:
This is a funky tournament with the the three courses and 54 hole cut. DFS Golf has a ton of variance. Add in three different courses and it makes it at the very least three times more variant. Be smart with your bankroll. Don’t go nuts this week because we’re never quite sure how its going to go.
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!
Join us in our coaching channels this week and let’s win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!