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BigMarley3’s UFC on ESPN+ 3 DraftKings Breakdown

BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown

 

Event – UFC Fight Night 145                                                   Location – Prague, Czech Republic

 

Thanks for purchasing my UFC Fight Night 145 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.

 

This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Prague, Czech Republic. This is an early start ESPN+ card and DK has some decent contests for us to try and take down. The main GPP is a $10 buy-in and $15k goes to 1st place, and there will be $75k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that final contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at that $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.

 

A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.

 

With that said, let’s break down these fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:

 

Damir Ismagulov $9,200 vs Joel Alvarez $7,000

Damir Ismagulov

Age: 28

Height: 5’10

Weight: 155

Reach: 74”

Gym: Fighter Gym

From: Russia

UFC Record: 1-0

Fight Matrix: 77

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W12

Betting Odds: -250

 

Damir Ismagulov is very good & extremely well rounded. He is a dynamic striker, with a strong grappling game. He has a nice jab, and a very good straight right hand. He will jab to the body as well. He has nasty low kicks. He will throw a jab to the body to a straight right to the head combination. He does a good job of faking the body jab & throwing the straight right first & catching opponents. He has excellent fakes & feints to create openings for other shots & takedowns. He does a great job of keeping a high guard, and his defense on point. He does a good job of seeing shots coming, leaning out of the way & staying in range to counter. He has nasty front and round kicks to the body and head. He throws nice spinning techniques, he has a nice spinning back fist and spinning back kick to the body. He throws some crazy strikes, such as kicks off the cage. He also showed some personality taunting & talking to Gorgees. Ismagulov has 9 KO/TKOs in his career & has never been finished by strikes.

Ismagulov is a sick wrestler & very strong on top. He has nasty single legs & very quick double leg entries. He will shoot a double, push opponents to the cage & get a body lock takedown. He does a great job of controlling opponents against the cage & racking up control time. On top he does a great job of standing up in opponent’s guards & landing big, accurate ground& pound punches. He is very heavy on top & when he gets top half guard & side mount he will try to trap an arm & throw punches & elbows. He does a great job of taking the back & will flatten opponents out and land hard G&P. He will unload with thudding power & try to finish the fight when he gets into dominant position. He is very hard to take down & does a great job of staying out of submissions. I feel Ismagulov needs to not hang out in Alvarez’s guard, but I do see him getting control time if he is to win. Ismagulov isn’t a big submission threat with just one in his career & has never been submitted. Ismagulov has fantastic cardio & has fought in multiple 5 round title fights. Ismagulov should look to strike in this fight & land well timed takedowns. He needs to stay on top, but I feel he has a much better top game than anyone Alvarez has ever faced.

 

Joel Alvarez

Age: 25

Height: 5’11

Weight: 155

Reach: N/A

Gym: Centro Deportivo Tibet

From: Spain

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 188

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W10

Betting Odds: +210

 

Alvarez is 17-1 and looks to be a future contender. Joel Alvarez will be making his UFC debut with a 15-1 record. Alvarez is fighting out of Spain & looks to be a tall, lanky fighter. Alvarez seems like a very powerful striker. He has good hand speed & is very aggressive. He will close the distance with jabs & straight punch combinations. He has a very powerful short right hook, that I have seen him drop opponents with. He likes to throw a jab to a straight right hand to a body kick combination. He does a good job of checking leg kicks & returning with a right hook. He will throw a lot of front & round kicks to the body. He has good jump knees & step in knees to the body. His aggression makes it easy for fighters to close the distance on him, because he has a very flat footed Muay Thai stance. He has no problem brawling. He has quick hands & he can land counters in close. In his one loss, he lost via spinning heel kick knock out. Fighters seem to really want to try to take him down in fights, and he only has one career TKO.

Alvarez is a bad wrestler, but it almost seems as if he wants to get put on his back. He will try to defend body locks a bit, and land knees, but overall his takedown defense is bad. He will lock in guillotines & front chokes when fighters try to take him down. He is very dangerous with chokes. Off his back he has very nice guillotines & triangles and is always active. He has good leg locks & when he sweeps to top position, he is very good. He will attack with arm bars & rear naked chokes. He has 14 career submissions & has finished all 15 of his pro wins. I do feel if an opponent can pass his guard & is a more dominant ground fighter, he can be exploited.

 

This is a pretty solid curtain jerker we have here. Neither guy is a very well known, which is probably why this is the first fight, but they are both skilled and only have a combined 3 losses in 35 total fights. Ismagulov is going to look to keep this fight standing because he does have a big edge in the striking department. If he does go for takedowns I think he will land them, but I think Alvarez’ only shot to victory in this fight is a submission, so I don’t think going for takedowns would be wise. I think Ismagulov will use his wrestling to defend takedowns and I think he keeps this fight on the feet for as long as the fight lasts. If he doesn’t get a KO on the feet, then he should win a unanimous decision. It’s submission or bust for Alvarez, in my opinion.

 

On DraftKings, Ismagulov is my preferred play. I always like targeting the first fight on DK, so I might have a bit of exposure to Alvarez as well. However, I will for sure have some exposure to Ismagulov because I don’t think he will be highly owned, and I think he can get a finish. At $9.2k, he will need to get the finish to pay that off, but I think that high price will keep people away and the low ownership is something I like to target. Alvarez has never been to a decision in his career and I don’t think he will have much for Ismagulov on the feet. If we can get a 1st round KO at sub 15% ownership, that could help us win a GPP.

Winner –  Damir Ismagulov via 2nd round (T)KO

 

Rustam Khabilov $8,700 vs Diego Ferreira $7,500

Rustam Khabilov

Age: 32

Height: 5’8

Weight: 155

Reach: 73”

Gym: Dagestan Fighter

From: Russia

UFC Record: 9-2

Fight Matrix: 19

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: -145

 

This is an awesome fight & an interesting clash of styles. Rustam Khabilov is an elite wrestler & Diego Ferreira is a Jiu-Jitsu world champion. It will be interesting to see if Khabilov will take down Ferreira or use his wrestling in reverse to keep it standing. Khabilov is very explosive & athletic. He has a nice jab & straight left hand. He will throw a left hook and has a nice straight right hand & great overhand right. He will throw a left hook, straight right-hand combination. He will attack the body with a straight right hand. He will throw a left hook to the body & then a left hook to the head. He will throw counter left hooks & straight right hands. He does a good job of landing long hooks in combination when he has opponents against the cage. He will throw rear uppercuts. He has good leg kicks & front kicks to the body. He will throw spinning back kicks to the body & head. He doesn’t have big power, and just 4 KO/TKOs. He has a strong chin & never been finished by strikes.

Khabilov is a great grappler. He is strong in the clinch & has good control. He cut Kajan Johnson in the clinch with a big elbow. He will throw spinning back elbows off the break. He has very good single & double legs. He has great timing on his doubles & he can lift and slam opponents. He will shoot doubles into a body lock, take the back & land nasty suplex’s. On top he has good control & will throw enough ground & pound to keep top position. He isn’t overly dangerous in top position. He likes to get his opponent’s head near the cage, where it’s harder for them to scramble & attack with submissions. He has 4 career submissions & been submitted one time. He was a massive favorite in his last match & had a very close fight with Kajan Johnson that could have went either way. He has had a lot of very close fights in the UFC, and more than one split decision. He has won 6 consecutive UFC fights, and is 9-2 overall.  Khabilov should look to use movement to walk Ferrería into shots, such as straight punches, uppercuts & overhands. Ferreira swings wild & if he can slide out of range & counter he could hurt Diego. I feel he will also have success with front & round kicks to the body. I’m not sure if he wants to get in top position against Ferreira, but I do think he will try to control him against the cage.

 

Diego Ferreira

Age: 34

Height: 5’8

Weight: 155

Reach: 74”

Gym: Fortis MMA

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 5-2

Fight Matrix: 40

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: +125

 

Carlos Diego Ferreira is returning quickly after, a finish of Kyle Nelson. He is 2-0 since returning from his USADA suspension and looks as good as ever. He has won 3 in a row overall, and the winner of this matchup deserves a top 10 fighter. Ferreira is very aggressive & will walk opponents down and throw bombs. He has a nice jab, good straight right hand, good left hook, and dangerous upper cuts in the pocket. He lets his hands go in close range and is very aggressive. He will throw a left hook, right hook, right uppercut combination in close range. He will throw a double jab, straight right hand, or double jab uppercut combo. He has nice leg kicks, and he likes to end combinations with head kicks. He has good front kicks to the body & head.  He will attack the body with hooks, straight punches, and keeps heavy forward pressure and volume on opponents.  He has dangerous spins in close range and will land hard spinning back fists. He will land hard body kicks, and he does a good job of slipping punches in the pocket and returning with straights. He doesn’t move his head & is very hittable. He is more preoccupied with throwing his own offense to worry about defense. He will get wild when he gets clipped, and instead of being defensive swing wildly. He is very tough & always wants to get it back when opponents hit him. He isn’t a huge power guy and only has 3 KO/TKOs in his career. He did drop Jared Gordon with a straight left hand and has two consecutive KO/TKOS. He has a good chin but has been finished once by KO.

Diego Ferreira is a dynamic grappler. He has incredible Jiu-Jitsu on top and off his back. He has great takedown defense. He does a good job of getting double under hooks, circling to the back and getting on top. He isn’t an active seeker of the takedown himself, with just one in his career, but his scrambling and sweeping ability off his back is extremely impressive. He starts working off his back immediately and will try to go for triangles or omaplata’s and use them to sweep and get on top. He is super dynamic in the scrambles & very fast in changing position. He isn’t a fighter who stays on his back looking for submissions, he will attempt one quickly, create a scramble, and attack the sub or get back to his feet.  When he gets on top he is nasty, he has great back takes, and he was able to sweep OAM and take his back who is a great grappler. The control he had on the back was serious & his ability to manipulate posture is amazing. He dropped Jared Gordon, trapped his wrist behind his back and finished with ground & pound. He also hip-tossed Colton Smith and got a no hooks rear naked choke in less than a minute. He doesn’t allow for a feeling out process & has a lot of quick finishes. He has 6 career submissions & has never been submitted. Diego needs to set the pace and be aggressive. He can’t get drawn into the slow low output game of Khabilov. He needs to be aggressive, walk Khabilov down with combinations & make him go backward.

 

I think the winner of this fight will be ranked in the top 15 after this fight and I think this will be a close fight. I think Khabilov will be the guy landing the harder shots on the feet, but Ferreira should be the guy fighting at the higher pace. If this is a 15-minute striking match, then I think it will be a close decision. I think if either guy can get top control on the ground then that could steal rounds and possibly win the fight. I do think Khabilov is the more likely fighter to land takedowns, but I think Ferreira is the more dangerous fighter on the ground with his submission ability.  I think this would be a dog or pass fight for me if I was looking to bet it, but I am going to lean with the slight favorite to get the job done by a close split decision.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is Ferreira. I don’t think Khabilov will go for many takedowns in this match, and I don’t see him getting a finish. Without him getting either of those it will be very hard to pay off that $8.7k price tag. I think he is an easy fade here, unless you want to use him purely based on low ownership. Ferreira is the fighter who strikes at a higher pace, so I think he could go out there and get a decision upset here. I also think he goes all 3 rounds, so I like his floor as well. He is playable in all formats this week, but since I am picking him to lose I will probably be in line with the field, or slightly underweight.

Winner – Rustam Khabilov via Split Decision

 

Michel Prazeres $9,400 vs Ismail Naurdiev $6,800

Michel Prazeres

Age: 37

Height: 5’7

Weight: 170

Reach: 67”

Gym: Trator Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 10-2

Fight Matrix: 20

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W8

Betting Odds: -420

 

Michel Tractor Prazeres just keeps on winning. He had a 6-fight winning streak at LW that was marred with multiple botched weight cuts. He has since moved up to WW, is now 2-0, and had a quick finish in his last match. With 3 wins in a row, 9 overall and no weight cutting issues since moving to WW, you have to imagine he will finally get a top 15 opponent. Michel has improved his striking a lot & is much more fluid. He has nice inside leg kicks & round kicks to the body with both legs. He has a good jab overhand right. He also does a great job of throwing the overhand right as a lead. He does a great job of throwing a counter left hook. He will follow with the right hook after the left. He is still always looking to use his striking to get inside & get the fight to the ground. He has to have gotten some confidence from his last match, dropping Bartosz Fabinski very quickly & submitting him. He has good in & out movement early on in fights, but he does get tired. As he tires, he will get flatter footed & start to wing shots. He only has one KO/TKO in his career, but he does have solid power. He has never been finished & has a very impressive record of 26-2.

Prazeres is a great grappler, and Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He does a great job of using punches to set up his takedowns. He will throw a big right hook or left hook, and duck under for a single leg. He also will fake the punch and shoot a blast double leg. He will shoot a single, lift his opponent to upset his balance, and then take their back from standing position where he’s very good at slamming his opponents to the mat. On top, Prazeres is very active, he has smooth passing and will move from half guard to side control on one side to side control all the way on the other side looking for the arm triangle and north south choke set ups. He has a strong mount and will take the back and get rear naked chokes. He has good control, and fighters struggle to get up from under him. He fought a huge WW In Zak Cummings, and he proved he could take him down. He has strong takedown defense, and he will jump for guillotines and has an active bottom game. He will use butterfly hooks to set up triangles, and he is also hard to keep down. Prazeres has really improved his cardio over the years, but still slows down. He is a submission threat with 10 career submissions. He has never been submitted, and I doubt that changes here. Prazeres needs to go forward & get takedowns in this fight. If he can get this fight to the ground, I see him being able to control Ismael on the ground. I do see Naurdiev not letting everything go as usual because of fear of the takedown. If Prazeres can make this a grappling heavy fight, he has a high likelihood of winning.

 

Ismail Naurdiev

Age: 22

Height: 6’0

Weight: 170

Reach: N/A

Gym: Thaiboxing MMA Salzburg

From: Austria

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 108

Last Fought: 3 Weeks

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W2

Betting Odds: +335

 

Ismael Naurdiev is experienced at 17-2, but very young at 22 years old. He has faced & defeated solid competition at ACB, and this is a dangerous fight for Prazeres to take with little reward. Ismael is coming off a quick finish, only 3 weeks ago, and is coming into this fight with momentum. Ismael is light on his feet, with a long stance & solid movement. He has a nice jab & good inside leg kicks. He has a very good lead leg & will throw nice front kicks & sidekicks to the head & body. He will throw a one-two to a round kick to the body. He closes the distance with extremely fast straight punch combinations. He is very accurate & if he can get opponents backed near the cage he has finishing ability. He has nasty spinning back kicks & spinning back elbows. He is much better when opponents give him space. When fighters make him go backwards, he isn’t as dangerous. He finished his last fight with a brutal uppercut, and he has huge power. He has 11 KO/TKOs in his career & never been finished with strikes.

Naurdiev is a solid grappler, and very explosive. He has strong double legs & will pick opponents up & slam them. On top he has pretty nasty ground & pound and is very accurate. He will take the back, flatten opponents out and finish with punches. He isn’t an active seeker of the takedown in many recent fights & I definitely see him trying to keep this fight on the feet vs Prazeres. In his most recent loss, he was taken down multiple times & controlled against the cage. He will attempt triangles & arm bars off his back, but he doesn’t have the greatest get ups. He had a very nice sprawl in his last match, and immediately landed the finishing shot after it. He has 5 submissions & been submitted 1 time in his career. Naurdiev is going to need to go forward here and keep Prazeres at the end of his shots. He cannot allow Michel to back him up and get him near the cage. He is going to be the much better striker & if this fight stays standing Prazeres is in trouble.

 

I think Naurdiev is a solid prospect from what I have seen, but he is getting a real tough UFC debut here against Prazeres. Prazeres is a tank and if he wants to get takedowns then I think he will get them. He is willing to chain wrestle to get the fight to the mat where he wants it, and if he gets on top then I think he will grind out a win by being the stronger guy and better grappler. If he wants to test his standup game, then I think Naurdiev would stand a much better chance at winning. I just think if the striking isn’t going well for Prazeres then he will get takedowns and he is just too good on top to let Naurdiev submit him from the bottom. However, at -410 and the biggest favorite on the card, I would say this is another dog or pass fight on the betting line.

Prazeres is my preferred play on DK, but I think he will need a finish or a bunch of takedowns to end up scoring the highest on the card. At his $9.4k price tag I think he is playable in all formats, but not a must have play. He will go out there and get takedowns, but if his opponent can’t get up then I don’t see Prazeres getting a ton of GNP strikes or advances. I think if he doesn’t get a finish we could be looking at an ~80-point score, and at $9.4k and highest priced, that wouldn’t put him on the optimal lineup. I will have some exposure to Prazeres but I don’t hate the mid-range builds this week, so I probably won’t be overweight on him. I like him more so in cash because I do think he is one of the safest wins on the card.

Winner – Michel Prazeres via Unanimous Decision

 

Polo Reyes $8,800 vs Damir Hadzovic $7,400

Marco Reyes

Age: 34

Height: 5’11

Weight: 155

Reach: 71.5”

Gym: Entram Gym

From: Mexico

UFC Record: 4-1

Fight Matrix: 160

Last Fought: 1 Year 2 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +100

 

This should be a banger. Both fighters are dangerous strikers willing to brawl. Marco Polo Reyes is coming off a brutal knock out of Matt Frevola, while Hadzovic has won 2 of 3 fights including a highlight reel flying knee KO of Marcin Held. Reyes is a former pro boxer with solid head movement & forward pressure. He walks opponents down & attacks body head with boxing combinations. He has a very accurate right hand & throws nice one-twos down the middle. He will throw the jab to the body & head. He will throw nice overhand rights & throw right hooks to the body. He will throw overhand right, left hooks. He has a nice left hook in the pocket. He does a good job of slipping & returning with shots in the pocket. When he gets pushed back, he can get a bit wild & wing shots instead of staying technical. He has nice leg kicks & will throw front knees and round kicks to the body. He will throw elbows in close range as well. He isn’t the most athletic fighter & he definitely will not be as explosive as Hadzovic. He definitely has big power & can close the show with one shot. He has 7 KO/TKOs in 8 wins. He is very hittable & has a warrior’s spirit, but a questionable chin. He has been finished 3 times by KO/TKO.

Polo Reyes has good Muay Thai skills. He has good knees and elbows in the clinch. He isn’t much of a wrestler, and actually has 0 takedowns in his UFC career. His takedown defense is very questionable. He allowed Dong Hyun Kim to bail himself out with several poorly set up body lock takedowns after he rocked him on the feet. He will pop back up to his feet pretty quickly & has a good get up game, but he needs to improve his wrestling. I don’t think he will have to worry about getting taken down in this fight. He isn’t a submission threat, and only has one submission against in a regional scene fight. He has been submitted one time in his career. Polo Reyes does have very good cardio & an iron will. Polo Reyes is going to need to come forward, get inside & work his boxing. He needs to throw overhands followed by straight punches & try to land combinations on Hadzovic. His low kicks could also be effective. He is going to be the fighter with less tools when striking on the outside, but in the pocket, I see him being more technical. If he can land a clean shot, he has the power to finish anyone.

 

Damir Hadžović

Age: 32

Height: 6’0

Weight: 155

Reach: 70”

Gym: Arte Suave

From: Bosnia

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 62

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -120

 

Hadzovic is light on his feet with good in & out movement. He has great forward pressure & breaks opponents with pace. He is very quick closing the distance & has nice one-two combinations. He has a good straight left hand. He will throw a front kick to the body. He has nice round kicks to the body. He has good front knees to the body & head, using it to control distance well. He has fast hand speed & I feel he will have a hand speed advantage against Reyes. He carries his power for all three rounds, hurting Nick Hein in round 3 & finishing Marcin Held with a finish in round 3. When he hurts fighters, he will usually capitalize & get the finish. He has 6 KO/TKOs & is dangerous. He has a good chin, but he has been finished one time by strikes.

Hadzovic is not a grappler & will be trying to keep this fight on the feet. He can get over aggressive, off balance, and fighters can take him down. He showed improvements on his takedown defense and get ups against Alan Patrick, but he still has questionable takedown defense. He will attack with armbars and triangles off his back. He has the capability to stay calm, defend, and has the cardio to stay dangerous. He was able to survive two rounds where he was on his back against a dangerous submission artist in Marcin Held. He was able to get a knockout in round 3 of that fight. Hadzovic needs to use in & out movement to land the faster shots & get out. I think Reyes is the more technical boxer, especially in the pocket, but if Hadzovic is able to dictate range, and land big shots from the outside, he can win a decision or even get the KO.

 

This should be a fun striking fight. I don’t see either fighter going for takedowns unless they get hurt on the feet and use takedowns as a way to recover. Either guy could get a knockout in this matchup, but if it goes all 15-minutes then I have to lean with Polo Reyes. I think he will be a bit bigger and he also strikes at a much higher pace. If he lands the harder strikes on the feet and is the one pushing the pace, I think it will be tough for Damir to get the judges nod.

The line on this fight has flipped and Hadzovic is now the favorite in the fight. He is $1,400 cheaper on DraftKings, but the favorite on the betting line. That will draw a lot of attention and make him the chalk on this card. Him and Jan will be very popular, and a lot of people will have those two as their “underdog” plays. That will not be sneaky at all and I like targeting the other sides at hopefully much lower ownership. I don’t see Reyes being popular at all at $8.8k and that is what I like about him. He is my preferred play for GPP and my pick to win the fight. For cash games, I would rather take the value in Hadzovic to free up room for guys like Yan and/or Prazeres. I will be taking an underweight approach to Hadzovic and avoiding that chalk and I will take a few shots on Reyes instead.

Winner – Polo Reyes via Unanimous Decision

 

Gillian Robertson $8,600 vs Veronica Macedo $7,600

Gillian Robertson

Age: 23

Height: 5’2

Weight: 125

Reach: 66”

Gym: ATT

From: Canada

UFC Record: 2-1

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -155

 

Gillian Robertson burned me a bit in her last fight. I was very high on her to get the victory, but she ended up getting submitted herself. She will be looking to bounce back here and get in the win column. Robertson is Training at ATT, and only 23 years old so I expect quick progression. She isn’t going to have Din Thomas in her corner for this fight due to it being in Prague, who is her longtime coach & that’s a bit concerning for me. This will be her fourth UFC fight, and third country she’s fighting in, so she should be used to the travel by now. Robertson is a grappler & her striking is very much developing. She doesn’t have much striking to speak of. She just really likes to circle, fake & feint, and try to get in on a single leg. She will throw a one-two & a jab. Her hand speed is not good & she doesn’t sit down and put power on her shots yet. Due to that fighters are able to absorb or slip & return with more significant shots. She does do a good job of feinting the straight right & ducking under. She isn’t the most explosive athlete and going to need to really work on her technical striking to progress further in the rankings. She is very hittable & was pieced up on the feet in her last matchup. She did look to improve the fluidity of her punches a bit, but overall still lacked power. She got hit with some big punches & didn’t give her opponent any counters to back her up. She has a good chin and will not get discouraged. She will eat shots to get inside. Robertson has never been finished by strikes standing & was just finished once by TKO on the ground. She has no career KO/TKOs.

Robertson is a very strong grappler & has great entries into her takedown attempts. She will use her punches to set up single legs, duck under & dump her opponents. When she gets ahold of the leg, she has a great grip & it’s very hard to get your leg free. She will duck under into double legs as well. She will even pull guard & does a good job of transitioning right into a single leg & ending up on top. She was winning the entirety of the round with Silva, controlling her on the ground and hurting her leg with a leg lock. She got caught in an arm bar in the last 10 seconds of the round. When she gets on top, she has very heavy top pressure & will pressure pass right into mount & then the back. She has hard elbows & has strong control. She has great rear naked chokes & choked out Molly McCann. She was shucked off the back by Emily Whitmire, but immediately transitioned to an arm bar & finished the fight. There’s going to be opportunities for Robertson to take down Macedo in this fight, and when she does, she needs to capitalize. She should not do anything dangerous & rely more on position and ground & pound over a submission. If the submission is there, go for it, but she needs the match on the ground. Robertson has 4 career submissions & has been submitted just one time. Robertson needs to use the same game plan she always does & get this fight to the ground. If she can get to dominant positions, I do see her being able to control & land G&P.

 

Veronica Macedo

Age: 23

Height: 5’4

Weight: 125

Reach: 64”

Gym: MMA Factory

From: Venezuela

UFC Record: 0-2

Fight Matrix: NR

Last Fought: 9 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +135

 

Macedo needs a win badly here at 0-2 in the UFC. She has fought two top 15 fighters currently at 125, and the fight against Evans-Smith was at 135 lbs. I don’t think she is in danger of being cut with a loss, but 3 losses in a row is never a good look. Gillian Robertson has a much better record at 2-1 but is coming off a loss via submission in Brazil. I was very confident she would win that fight & feel she dropped the ball.  Both fighters will be hungry to get a win & show their skills. Verónica Macedo is a karate stylist with decent lateral movement. She likes to circle, throw kicks & try to dart in with punch combinations. She will close the distance with straight punch combinations and is fast. She will throw counter left hooks in the pocket. She likes to throw a jab, straight right hand & angle off. She isn’t much of a puncher though still & getting inside on her is definitely the way to beat her on the feet. She has fantastic rear leg round kicks to the head. She throws them very quickly with no tell & when she lands, will double & triple up on the kick. She will throw oblique kicks to the knees & sidekicks to the body & head with her front leg. She has good inside leg kicks. She has very nice spinning kicks to the body & head. If you give her space, she is a creative striker with good power. She still needs to work on her footwork & when fighters get aggressive they can back her up & she will stop moving her feet and get taken down because of it. She has much better striking than Robertson, is much faster, with much smoother technique. If she keeps this fight on the feet, she will win the fight. She has one TKO victory in her career & has been finished once by TKO herself.

Macedo is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu & a competent grappler, but a poor wrestler. She has lost her two UFC fights due to being taken down, out muscled, and controlled on the ground. She is decent in the clinch, she will do a decent job of disengaging, and landed some nice knees & elbows against Ashlee Evans-Smith in the clinch. She will also roll for leg locks from the clinch & got a knee bar submission in her last win. She fought her first UFC fight at 135 lbs & her second against one of the strongest fighters in the division in Andrea Lee & it showed. She was bullied in the clinch & hip tossed by both girls several times. She got her arm trapped by AES in side control bottom & was finished by elbows. I actually thought she looked much better at 125 vs Lee. She got a takedown of her own & would use submission attempts to get back to her feet. She can get too over aggressive going for arm bars or leg locks & give up bad positions on the ground & eat shots. She will be facing a ground fighter once again in this matchup, but it’s someone who is much more her size & won’t be able to bully her physically. Macedo has good cardio & a solid mean streak. She is serious in the cage & definitely will fight hard for your money. Macedo needs a win here to solidify a spot in the company & this is a huge fight for her. She needs to use her footwork, lateral movement, and kicks. If she can keep Robertson on the outside & end of her punches I don’t see Robertson lasting 3 rounds standing. She can’t allow Robertson to back her up & she needs to always have her feet moving. I do feel if she gets taken down in this matchup, she should look to immediately scramble back up to her feet. She shouldn’t engage Robertson in a scramble fest on the ground or try to work leg locks or submissions off her back. The more she can get back up if taken down and get the fight back in her realm; the more it will demoralize Robertson & gives Macedo the best chance to win.

 

This is my least favorite fight on the card. I don’t see this being a fun fight if it stays standing, but I do think Macedo would have the slight edge on the feet and I would pick her to win if that were the case. I don’t see either fighter being able to get a (T)KO, and if it does stay standing for 15-minutes I think it will be a low paced, close fight. However, I do think Robertson has a decent edge on the ground and that is why she is the favorite here. I think if she can land takedowns then she can win the fight that way. She could lock up a submission, but even if she doesn’t then I would think the wrestling and top control would at least give her the nod from the judges.

On DraftKings, Robertson is my preferred play and likely the only one of the two who I roster. I do think if she can get the fight to the ground she should have a solid edge and she has a decent ceiling with her finishing potential. If this fight stays standing, then I don’t see either of them on the optimal lineup. I don’t care for this fight much in cash games, but I do want some exposure to Robertson for GPPs and I don’t think she will be highly owned. I like getting some leverage on her and hoping she can lock up a submission in the 1st or 2nd round.

 

Winner – Gillian Robertson via 2nd round Submission.

 

Chris Fishgold $9,000 vs Daniel Teymur $7,200

Chris Fishgold

Age: 26

Height: 5’8

Weight: 145

Reach: 68”

Gym: Next Generation MMA Pool

From: England

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 162

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -240

 

Daniel Teymur & Chris Fishgold are both trying to bounce back from rough losses in their last fights. Daniel Teymur is 0-2 so far in the UFC & was finished in his last match. Chris Fishgold was finished pretty brutally by KO in his UFC debut against Calvin Kattar. Fishgold is a grinding wrestler, and former cage warriors champion. Fishgold is an athletic fighter, and he has a good jab and nice straight right hand. He throws heavy low kicks. He has a decent left hook as well, and he is very quick when he explodes forward with combinations. He has a good right hook, left hook combo, and will mix in uppercuts too. He does a great job of when he backs fighters near the fence, swarming & throwing in combination. It’s hard for fighters to defend, because the constant threat of the takedown is there. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick. He has a solid uppercut in the pocket as well. He doesn’t have big power, and only has two TKO’s in his career. He is coming off a pretty brutal TKO loss just 4 months ago, so his chin is in question. He has fought in a lot of 5 round fights, so he should be able to push hard in this fight.

Fishgold, likes to close the distance with overhands, or straight punches, and get a single collar tie in the clinch. He will use a double jab, straight right hand very well to get inside. He is strong there, and bullies fighters to the cage or to the ground. He has a good double leg, a nice single leg, and is a well-rounded wrestler with a lot of variety in his takedowns. Fishgold is very dangerous with chokes and can even get them from standing position. He will clamp onto the neck from the clinch and jump on guillotines. He is very heavy on top, slowly works into dominant position, until he can get to the back. He has hard ground & pound, and he uses it in opportune times to advance position. He isn’t much of a ground & pound to finish guy. When he takes the back, he has a fantastic rear naked choke, and does a good job of sneaking the arm under the chin. He has won 12 fights via submission in his career. He is only 3-1-1 in decisions, so he is a finisher. Fishgold definitely needs to get inside, jam the kicks of Teymur, and work in close quarters. If he can get inside the constant threat of the takedown will allow him to work, his hands. If the fight does hit the ground I believe Fishgold will be on top, and we have seen Teymur, gas and submit in his two UFC fights. Keeping the pressure & pace high will be key to a Fishgold victory.

 

Daniel Teymur

Age: 30

Height: 5’5

Weight: 145

Reach: 69”

Gym: Allstars Training Center

From: Sweden

UFC Record: 0-2

Fight Matrix: 428

Last Fought: 8 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L2

Betting Odds: +200

 

Daniel Teymur is in desperate need of a win to keep his job in the UFC. His brother David is also coming off a loss, and broken orbital, so he hasn’t gotten to train with him much this camp. Teymur is very explosive & usually has strong starts. He closes the distance quickly, with hard leg kicks & overhands. He has a nice left hook, over hand right combination. His overhand right is accurate & powerful. He has a good left hook lead. He has a nasty uppercut and will throw an uppercut, left hook combination. When he gets inside & has opponents hurt, he will get wild & throw looping shots. Fighters are able to counter & hurt him as well. He will throw hard body & head kicks. He also throws a lot of spinning back elbows. He slows down quickly if you can survive the first round & doesn’t handle getting pressured well.  When he lands a strike, he will fall in love with it, and throw it over & over until it becomes predictable. All of his wins have happened in round one and he does have power with 3 TKOs. He has a questionable chin. I have seen him essentially finished, and have the fight restarted in a wild scene in a regional fight. He has also now come into the UFC and taken two big beatings.

He isn’t a bad grappler, especially early. He has nice knees & elbows in the clinch. He has good clinch takedowns himself & will get in the guard and land elbows. He has good takedown defense, and when he does get taken down early he explodes back up. I do feel his wide shots make it easy for opponents to get inside on him & create grappling situations. As he tires he can get taken down with double legs against the cage & doesn’t have much off his back. He got mounted against Danny Henry & beat on for a huge portion of round three. He also got submitted by rear naked choke vs Julio Arce. He tends to give up his back when he stands up, and Fishgold is very good on the back. Teymur needs to show more composure here, and not gas himself out. If he can strike from the outside, move in & out, and defend takedowns without getting wild he can win a stand-up fight.

 

This should be a fun fight. Both guys are pretty wild on the feet and I would expect this to be a crazy fight as long as it stays standing. I would give Teymur an edge in the striking department, but Fishgold would likely be the guy throwing more volume. I think Fishgold will be smart here though and go for takedowns and if he can land them, he should win this fight. He is a dangerous submission grappler and he should be able to dominate on the ground. I think he ends up finding a submission at some point in this fight, but even if he can’t then I would favor him in a decision. I think Teymur’s best path to victory is getting the knockout early in the fight.

On DraftKings, Fishgold is one of my favorite plays on the card. I expect him to fight at a very high pace and he can do it for 3 rounds. I think if this fight goes into the 3rd round then Teymur will likely be gassed and Fishgold should be able to dominate. I think he could get a sub in any round, but I am thinking he gets it in round 3 after Teymur is worn out. I think Teymur will have the better striking but his edge on the feet is not near as big as Fishgold’s edge on the ground. I think both guys are playable on DK, but I will be overweight to Fishgold and I think he has one of the higher ceilings on the card. Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is lined at -245 so this is one of the better fights on the card for DK purposes and I like Fishgold in all formats.

Winner – Chris Fishgold via 3rd round Submission

 

Carlo Pedersoli $8,200 vs Dwight Grant $8,000

Carlo Pedersoli Jr.

Age: 25

Height: 5’11

Weight: 170

Reach: 75”

Gym: Heaven Fight Arena

From: Italy

UFC Record: 1-1

Fight Matrix: 157

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: -150

 

Carlo Pedersoli is returning 4 months after getting knocked out in less than a minute against Alex Cowboy Oliveira. He will be looking to bounce back against AKA product Dwight Grant, who is coming off a very controversial split decision loss to Zak Ottow. Carlo Pedersoli is a karate fighter with good movement, and a lot of striking variety. He is a southpaw & a creative striker. He has a good jab & a very nice left hand. He will throw inside, outside leg kicks, along with oblique kicks. His straight left hand & overhand left are very accurate. He is a great kicker and has a very educated lead leg. He has a nice front kick & side kick to the body & head. He does a good job of throwing question mark kicks to the head. He will fake the overhand left & throw the question mark kick. He likes to throw jab, rear leg head kicks combinations. He will throw nice snap kicks to the body. He has nice spinning back kicks to the head & body. He can throw the kicks with both legs very fluidly, and it makes him a tricky opponent. He has good distance control most of the time & when he finds his range he will land in & out very well. He does keep his hands low, and fighters who get aggressive & close the distance on him give him problems. He isn’t a good boxer & moving backwards he can’t throw kicks. He holds his hands low & it leaves openings for an explosive fighter to close the distance & land a knock out shot. We saw just that in his last fight with Alex Cowboy Oliveira knocking him out in under a minute.

Pedersoli is a solid grappler. He is a pretty good wrestler, he has good timing on his double legs. He chains together his takedown attempts well, he will grab a single, go to a double leg, and if he can’t get that he will go for the body lock. He doesn’t have great top control and isn’t extremely physical. He can be controlled against the cage and get hit with elbows and knees. He does a good job of getting the Thai clinch and going for knees to the head. He can be taken down, and off his back he doesn’t look very good. He got his guard passed very easily by Nicholas Dalby and was taking some decent shots from side control. He seems like he gets tired in the third round and starts to fade. Pedersoli needs to go forward, use kicks, but he needs to be defensively sound. Grant is going to be coming over the top with wide shots & with Pedersoli’s hands down, a shot could potentially land flush. I do think if Pedersoli could use feints to draw out the big actions of Grant, he could duck under and take him down. He has good timing on his double legs, and it’s something I feel he should do to break the rhythm of the fight up. Pedersoli can’t get tired in round 3 as he did in previous fights, because Grant is probably the hardest hitter he’s faced in his career.

 

Dwight Grant

Age: 34

Height: 6’1

Weight: 170

Reach: 76.5”

Gym: AKA

From: New York

UFC Record: 0-1

Fight Matrix: 207

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +130

 

Dwight Grant was on the bad end of a decision in his UFC debut in which I think he won. I am sure he is chomping at the bit to get back in the cage & have another opportunity. This is Dwight Grant’s first fight outside of the USA, so we have to see how that affects him. Grant is very long & has big power. Grant likes to counter punch mostly. He will use lateral movement, fake, feint, and try to walk opponents into wide hooks & overhands. He will throw an overhand, right, left hook combination, and floored Tyler Hill on DWCS. He does a great job of using his reach to grab behind the head & land hard uppercuts. He has a good counter left hook going backwards. He is always going backwards & giving up octagon control, and I feel that’s why he lost the decision to Ottow. He lets his opponents dictate the pace, and he needs a good dance partner or to land some big shots, and really hurt his opponents to guarantee a decision victory. He is 2-2 in decisions. He has 6 KO/TKOs out of his 8 wins & has never been finished.

Grant has good defensive wrestling skills. He is training at an amazing wrestling gym at AKA and has plenty of wrestlers to work with. He isn’t an offensive grappler. He will catch kicks, and get takedowns occasionally, but he won’t shoot takedowns. He has a strong sprawl, and he does a great job of getting a whizzer in the clinch and circling back to the center. He is explosive if you do take him down and is hard to hold down. He did get wild trying to finish Zak Ottow and was taken down in round 3. He was able to stand up, but he was controlled for about 2 minutes and then controlled against the fence. Ottow is a black belt, so he wasn’t facing a scrub on the ground. He has never been submitted and has never gotten a submission himself. He has good cardio and has shown he holds his power into the third round with a couple third round KOs in his career. Dwight Grant needs to be more aggressive in this fight. He needs to go forward more & try to explode in with shots & catch Pedersoli cold. He is long, fast and has the power to land & put Carlo’s lights out if he can.

 

This is a good matchup. I think this is a close fight and guys could land heavy shots on the feet that end it. I think Grant has more power and I think he would be more likely to get the KO, especially because Pedersoli was knocked out only 5 months ago. But I think Pedersoli is the more well-rounded fighter and if he can get the fight to the ground then I think he could lock up a submission. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, then I think he is the rightful favorite and I think him striking at the higher rate would help him get his hand raised. However, I hate seeing fighters come back so fast after being knocked out cold, and I don’t see that going well against a heavy striker like Grant. I am going to take the underdog in this matchup and I think he gets it done by (T)KO. If he can’t get the finish, then I think Pedersoli gets the win.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is Grant because I think he has the higher ceiling with a possible 1st round KO. If he doesn’t get the KO then he probably won’t score highly, so I won’t be heavily exposed to him. I think Pedersoli is in play as well, but I don’t really see him having a huge ceiling and he probably gets around 10x in a win, so if you are just making a few lineups I would just fade him. I would probably need over 10 lineups before I started using Pedersoli, but I think 20-30% Grant sounds like a good number to me for GPPs. I would avoid this fight in cash games though because I don’t trust Grant enough to win and Pedersoli has a low floor.

Winner – Dwight Grant via 1st round (T)KO

 

Magomed Ankalaev $9,100 vs Klidson Abreau $7,100

Magomed Ankalaev

Age: 26

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205

Reach: 75”

Gym: Gorets FT

From: Russia

UFC Record: 1-1

Fight Matrix: 43

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -220

 

Magomed Ankalaev bounced back in a big way from his embarrassing UFC debut. After tapping out with 1 second left in a fight he was absolutely dominating, he didn’t let that discourage him & knocked Marcin Prachnio out in round 1. Ankalaev is a very athletic fighter for LHW as well, showing that off with a head kick that started the beginning of the end in his last match. He is a southpaw & explosive. He has a nice, long jab, and sets his shots up a bit better than Farias. He will jab to the body & has hard low kicks as well. He has very nice straight left hands & left hooks. He likes to throw a round kick to the body, to a straight left, right hook combination. He has a nice jab, overhand right combo. He has a strong counter straight right hand & counter left hook. He likes to mix in nice shovel hooks & short uppercuts into his hook combinations in the pocket. His rear leg head kick is very fast & he will follow with a straight left hand down the middle. He is a power kicker, whether it’s to the legs, body, or head, and when he lands, opponents will feel it. He landed a nasty counter left hook to a head kick combination and finished his opponent. He is a bit of a plodder, but he walks opponents down & has a presence in the cage. When he lets his shots go, he is fast, and I feel hand & kick speed wise these are two of the fastest LHWs in the division. He has power with 5 KO/TKOs in 9 wins. He has good durability and has never been finished.

Ankalaev is a very strong grappler, and great wrestler. He is very strong in the clinch & will control opponents against the fence. He will do damage from that position, and land hard elbows & knees. He is great off the breaks, and will unload with punch combinations, sometimes finishing with knees to the head. He has strong double legs, can lift opponents & dump them on their head. He has good top control, with brutal ground & pound. He has put people to sleep with ground & pound punches. He will move to dominant positions such as mount & usually will finish the fight if he can get there. He was finished via triangle by Paul Craig with one second left in a fight he was dominating. He seemed to panic & may be a quick tapper throughout his whole career. He has good takedown defense, and gets double underhooks, to snap you down and control on top. He can get taken down, but he stays calm and does a good job of sweeping and getting top position or getting back to his feet. If Farias takes him down, I do worry that he will be submitted. We have seen him panic before & Farias transitions into submissions very quickly. Ankalaev should try to keep this fight on the feet and stay technical. I feel he has the better standup & definitely more volume. If he can use a lot of kicks & straight punches to keep Farias on the outside, he should win the striking battle. I do think he can get takedowns and do damage as well. I could see possibly in round 3 him getting a takedown & using some top control.

 

Klidson Farias

Age: 26

Height: 6’1

Weight: 205

Reach: N/A

Gym: Evolucao Thai MMA

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 0-0

Fight Matrix: 32

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: +180

 

This is a fight between two high level prospects. It was originally supposed to be Ankalaev vs Darko Stosic, but Stosic got injured and Farías is stepping in on about 3 weeks’ notice. This will be Farias’ debut, but he has some high-level wins outside of the UFC. Farias is a very big, athletic 205er, with well-rounded skills. He has very fluid movement, nice head kicks & straight right hands. He has good inside leg kicks, along with front & round kicks to the body. He will attack with a straight right hand, overhand left, or left hook combination. He will attack the body with the straight right hand & come up with a left hook. He will throw hard overhand rights. He has good hand speed & will throw a lot of straight punch combinations. He uses a lot of big movements to get inside & he doesn’t set much up. His sheer athleticism & speed allows him to still close distance & land shots. A fighter who has good movement & can pot shot him at range will have success standing. He can be hit himself, but he has no problem biting down on his mouthpiece and going to war. He has 4 KO/TKOs in his career & has been finished by TKO in both of his losses.

Farias is a good overall grappler. He has great timing on double legs & very quick shots. Once he takes opponents down, he will work to dominant positions quickly. He will move to mount & land big shots looking for the finish, as well as getting the back and getting rear naked chokes. He got a very quick rear naked choke once he got a takedown over a very accomplished Viktor Nemkov. He will also attack with arm bars from mount & is good at them. He doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense himself, and he can be controlled on the mat. He allowed Nemkov to get off with some nice elbows from in his guard and control him for the majority of round 1. He doesn’t have a great get up game & can lose rounds on his back. He has beaten more than one Russian wrestler, and he will be looking to take another out in Ankalaev. He has won 10 fights via submission, including his last 5 in a row. He has good cardio but has never seen the judge’s scorecards. He is experienced and holds wins over notable names such as Johnny Walker, Viktor Nemkov & HW Anton Vyazigin. I think Farias should look to use his striking to try to get inside & get takedowns. We saw Paul Craig landed a few takedowns, and I feel Farias could as well. If Farias gets on top, he is very good, and will have a chance to finish Ankalaev.

 

These are two solid prospects, and this is one of the fights I am looking forward to the most on the card. I think De Abreu is a live dog here, but he will need to get the fight to the mat and probably get a submission. If he can’t get the fight to the mat then I think Ankalaev wins a decision, or maybe even knocks him out. I also think Ankalaev can land takedowns of his own and work some ground and pound, but I don’t think that would be in his best interest.

On DraftKings, I have a bit of interest in both sides, but I won’t be overweight on either side. My preferred play is Ankalaev and I think he has a higher ceiling than Yan, but I think he should keep this fight standing and if that is the case I think he will need a finish to end up on the optimal lineup. I think he could be a popular play so that is what will keep me underweight because I probably won’t go much over 20% personally. Abreau interests me a bit as well because I think he has finishing potential and if he can get a finish at $7k then he will for sure be on the optimal lineup. I like him as a low owned boom/bust play to get away from the Hadzovic and Jan chalk. I would avoid this fight in cash games and I would rather have Yan or Prazeres in those formats, but this is a decent GPP fight for both sides.

Winner – Magomed Ankalaev via Unanimous Decision

 

Petr Yan $9,300 vs John Dodson $6,900

Petr Yan

Age: 26

Height: 5’7

Weight: 135

Reach: 67”

Gym: Tiger Muay Thai

From: Russia

UFC Record: 3-0

Fight Matrix: 15

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 5-0

Current Streak: W6

Betting Odds: -280

 

Petr Yan came into the UFC with a lot of fanfare and hasn’t disappointed with a 3-0 start with two great performances. He smashed Teruro Ishihara in round 1 by KO, had a great performance against a very tough Jin Soon Son, and had his best performance to date smashing Douglas Andrade last time out. Yan is a well-rounded fighter and has great hands on the feet. He has a nasty straight right hand and will follow with a fade away overhand left. He will throw hard one-twos down the pipe. He will switch stances, throw quick straight lefts, and he has great uppercuts in close. He does a great job of keeping a high guard, using head movement, staying right in the pocket, and throwing big shots to the body & head. He does a great job of using feints and fakes in close to make fighters throw & counter. He has nasty kicks, great body kicks, nice head kicks, leg kicks, oblique kicks, spinning kicks, he has it all. He will use his kicks in combination with his punches and keeps a very high volume of shots out there. He likes to attack with a spinning back fist to close the distance and he will follow it up with a big kick to the head or the body. He has 4 KO/TKOs, and has never been finished by shots, and has a great chin but is hittable.

Yan is extremely strong in the clinch. He has nasty, short elbows, and knees, and will disengage with great spinning elbows. He has nasty slams and trip takedowns.  He will elevate his opponents and land belly to belly suplex’s, and nice hip tosses. He has good elbows in the clinch too and will damage opponents before he tries to take them down. He likes to back his opponents up against the cage and land big slam double legs. On top he is very good, he likes to advance position to the mount and rain down punches until the ref stops the fight. He can be taken down by well-timed double legs, but he does a good job of scrambling, and either getting top position or the feet on the hips and standing up. He isn’t much of a submission threat with only 1 career submission. Yan has shown in his fights with Magomedov, that he is fearless and extremely hard to put away. He has tremendous cardio going 5 rounds multiple times, so 3 round fights are not a problem. I see Yan trying to stay in Dodson’s face, get him moving backwards & throw more volume than Dodson. If he can land some big combinations early, get Dodson gun shy, he could walk him down all match.

 

John Dodson

Age: 34

Height: 5’3

Weight: 135

Reach: 66”

Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA

From: New Mexico

UFC Record: 9-5

Fight Matrix: 10

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +240

 

This is a fight of fighters going in opposite directions. John Dodson did not look good in his last match and was soundly defeated by Jimmie Rivera. Petr Yan has won 3 fights in a row to start his UFC career & had a great TKO finish of Douglas Andrade his last time out. This will be his first foray into the upper echelon of the division. John Dodson is an extremely fast and explosive bantamweight. He uses short explosions in the form of a single punch counter or a combination. He has KO power in his hands and that’s why he can get away with being low output. When he lands, he puts you to sleep or hurts you. Dodson likes to stay outside of boxing range but close enough to kick and will be fast enough to get out of the way of your counters, even with the reach disadvantage in most fights. Dodson doesn’t really commit to his kicks, but he throws fast low leg kicks to get range and mostly just feints and gets out the way of his opponent’s strikes and frustrating them. When they don’t expect it, he blitzes in with an explosive combination or counter and is very left hand heavy, with very good speed. He works to the body with a left hook at the end of the combinations to get his opponent to drop their hands, and then he goes upstairs with his KO shot, the left hook. Dodson has 11 career KO/TKOs, but only one since his move up to 135 lbs 6 fights ago. He has never been finished.

Dodson doesn’t really use wrestling in his fights but is a two-time state champion wrestler and uses it to stay on his feet or if there is a lull in the action. He has very good takedown defense, a great sprawl, heavy hips, and is like a cat. He can spring right back to his feet & is very hard to hold down. He probably will have to show that off in this matchup & defend a couple takedowns. Dodson has good cardio. He has close split decision losses to the elite of the division in Marlon Moraes, John Lineker and is a hard style to deal with for anybody. He is getting older, and this is his last real chance to make a run at the title. Dodson will need to be more active, but still try to land that left hand. He can’t let Yan push him back & dictate the pace of the fight and expect to win a decision. He hasn’t exactly let things go in recent fights and needs to have a bounce back performance here.

 

I am very high on Petr Yan and I think he could be a future champion. Dodson has had a couple shots at the title, and has beat the champ, TJ Dillashaw, but times have changed and now he is the underdog against the up and coming prospect. I think the only way Yan loses this fight is by getting knocked out. He is going to be landing the better shots and he will be striking at a much higher pace. I think this fight stays standing as long as it lasts, but I think if there were takedowns then it would be Yan getting them. I think this is going to be a 3 round impressive performance for Yan where he picks up a clear 30-27 victory.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is Yan, but I think this is a fight to fade for GPPs. I will still have some Yan lineups in GPPs, but if you are making 5 or less then I would just avoid this fight and go elsewhere with higher ceilings. Dodson fights generally are not high scoring and I don’t think there are many, if any, takedowns in this spot. At $9.3k I think Yan will need a finish to end up on the optimal lineup and if he can’t get one then I don’t see him scoring highly. I do like him for cash games because I am fairly confident he gets the win, I just don’t like his ceiling. I have zero interest in Dodson in GPPs and its KO or bust for him the way I see it. Since I think this fight goes 3 rounds I think you could use Dodson as a cash punt, but with the value we have on this card I don’t think we need to go there.

Winner – Petr Yan via Unanimous Decision

 

Liz Carmouche $8,300 vs Lucie Pudilova $7,900

Liz Carmouche

Age: 35

Height: 5’6

Weight: 125

Reach: 66”

Gym: Team Hurricane Awesome

From: California

UFC Record: 4-4

Fight Matrix: 2

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -140

 

Lucie Pudilova is making the drop down to 125 lbs, and if she can make it safely, she will be a beast for the division. She had one of the best female fights of the year against Irene Aldana in her last fight and lost a split decision I thought she won. She will be taking on the veteran Liz Carmouche, who looked very impressive in her last fight. She was an underdog & largely dominated the former Invicta champion Jennifer Maia. Carmouche’s striking is not very good in my opinion. She will throw a lot of un set up leg kicks from the outside & the occasional body kick. She looked sharper with her hands vs Maia. She threw some nice hook combinations in the pocket, a couple nice one-twos. She landed a couple jab, overhand rights. She still is stiff & I don’t like her defense. Her head is stationary, and she seems to freeze a bit and anticipate getting hit. When she’s fighting moving backwards she doesn’t have much & can get pieced up. Her striking is basically all to close the distance. She will throw Superman punches to get in the clinch, along with overhand rights. She has 6 KO/TKOs in her career & has never been finished by strikes. She is a military veteran & tough chick.

Carmouche is very physically strong & explosive in grappling situations. She doesn’t shoot many takedowns from the outside & likes to get her takedowns in the clinch. She has good dirty boxing in the clinch & knees to the legs. She will bully opponents & has strong body lock trips. She does a good job of using big winging shots in the pocket to get fighters thinking about the striking & ducking under into a body lock takedown. She will land directly in side control at times and will attack with elbows or knees to the body. She has good double leg takedowns against the fence. She has a quick mount take & will rain down big shots from there. She has strong cardio & can go all three rounds easily. She isn’t a big submission threat, and only has 2 career submissions. She has shown questionable BJJ in top position, leaving openings for submissions. She has worked on that & even competed in BJJ competitions. She has been submitted twice in her career. Liz Carmouche is going to have to find a way to get inside in this fight & ultimately get the fight to the mat. If she stays at range with Pudilova, she will be pieced up from the outside. Pudilova’s jab and hand speed will cause Carmouche big issues. If she can get inside, get takedowns, control Pudilova on the ground, that’s obviously what she will do.

 

Lucie Pudilova

Age: 24

Height: 5’8

Weight: 125 (Debut)

Reach: 67.5”

Gym: KBC Pribram

From: Czech Republic

UFC Record: 2-2

Fight Matrix: 12 (BW)

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: L1

Betting Odds: +120

 

Lucie Pudilova is very young & improving rapidly. If you look at her social media, you see the dedication she puts into the sport, and that she is trying to fill in her holes. She is only 24 years old, and is fighting in her home country, so I see her coming in in fantastic shape. This will also be her first weight cut to 125 lbs. she has a warrior spirit, and I see her being extremely motivated in this spot. Pudilova has a nasty jab & is a long powerful striker. She will throw hard one-twos down the middle. She dropped Sarah Moras multiple times with punches, and Moras is one of the bigger 135ers in the UFC. I expect her power to be amplified at 125. She has a nice left hook & good overhand right. She will throw a jab, overhand right combination. She keeps heavy forward pressure & wears opponents out with a steady stream of volume. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She will throw front kicks to the body as well. She has nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. She throws nice front kicks to the body. She loves to fight & has no problem going to war. When she gets hit, she likes to immediately try and get it back. Her hand speed is elite & she has great accuracy on her right straight. She is the vastly superior striker & if she can stay composed, keep the distance with her punches, it is her fight to lose. She has 2 KO/TKOs in her career & has never been finished.

Pudilova is a good grappler, and really addressing that part of her game. She is nasty in the clinch & very active by throwing hard elbows & knees. She has very good takedown defense. She has a heavy sprawl and will make you pay for takedown attempts with hard elbows. She also can reverse position getting on top where she has aggressive G&P. She was able to control Sarah Moras on her back for a large portion of round 2. Off her back she can get controlled, and held down, but she has good defense and will attack with a triangle. She needs to stay off her back in this match. Pudilova has 2 submissions and has never been submitted. She has phenomenal cardio and pushes a hard pace. Pudilova needs to walk down Carmouche, get her going backwards & throw in combination. I think the second & third shots in a combination of Pudilova’s will really stun Carmouche if they land. She is going to be the much better striker & as long as she stays composed, doesn’t over extend and keeps Liz on the end of her shots, it’s her fight to lose.

 

This is a striker vs grappler match. Carmouche is the grappler and she is now 35 years old and will be traveling over to the Czech Republic to fight a 24-year-old solid prospect in Pudilova, in her home country. I think Carmouche can land takedowns in this spot, but I don’t see her getting a finish at all, and if she can’t keep the fight on the ground and in top control, then she will get pieced up on the feet. Pudilova is the much better striker and she throws strikes at the higher rate as well. With this being in her home country, I don’t see the judges giving it to Carmouche if it is close, and I think Pudilova is also the more likely fighter to finish as well. I am taking the underdog here for a 1u bet at +124 odds and I think she is going to come through with a decision win or a late TKO. I will say she gets a 29-28 win after losing round 1.

This is another fight I am not super interested in for DraftKings. I think Carmouche will dominate in the wrestling game, and I think Pudilova will dominate in the striking game. And I think both have their moments making this a close fight. I would say Carmouche has the higher ceiling because she will go for the takedowns, but I think Pudilova has the better chance at a finish. I will take a couple shots on both fighters in GPPs since I am multi-entering, but I think a fade on this fight is the way to go. I do think Pudilova and her floor are fine cash game plays though because I don’t see Liz getting a finish.

Winner – Lucie Pudilova via Unanimous Decision

 

Michal Olesksijczuk $8,900 vs Gian Villante $7,300

Michal Olejsiejczuk

Age: 24

Height: 6’0

Weight: 205

Reach: 74”

Gym: GKS Gornik Leczna MMA

From: Poland

UFC Record: 0-0-1

Fight Matrix: 58

Last Fought: 1 years 2 months

Last Five: 4-0-1

Current Streak: 1 no contest

Betting Odds: -200

 

Michal Oleksiejczuk is returning after a 1-year USADA suspension. He is still only 23 years old, so he should have steadily improved over his time off if he’s been training properly. He leapt onto the radar with an upset victory over Khalil Roundtree in his UFC debut. That fight was changed to a NC, but it looks as if the UFC is treating it as a win. They are giving him a big name, and longtime UFC fighter, Gian Villante. With a win here either fighter will be looking at a top 15 name next. Gian Villante has been middling around in the UFCs 205 lb division for years. He needs to put a winning streak together right now if he hopes to ever have a title run. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a southpaw power striker who comes forward & puts a lot of pressure on opponents. He isn’t the most athletic fighter, but he has technical boxing & fast hands. He is a bit of a plodder, but he does a good job of staying loose with his hands & body movement. He will use a lot of fakes & feints. He doesn’t move his head much & can get hit with big shots. He has fantastic durability & will just eat the shots, and return. He has a nasty overhand left & left hook in the pocket. He will throw nice one-twos down the middle. He does an excellent job of attacking the body with left hooks & straight lefts. He will throw a jab, left hook to the body or a left straight to the body right hook combination. He does a great job of blocking & returning in the pocket and has good defense in close range. He has nasty round & front kicks to the body. He keeps a massive amount of volume out there & will not stop coming forward. His pace & body attack really tired out Khalil Roundtree, and Gian Villante is known to gas. He can get hit as he enters with overhands, and I do feel Villante could possibly land leg kicks. Oleksiejczuk has huge power and has finished 8 of his wins by KO/TKO. He has only been finished by TKO one time in his career.

Oleksiejczuk isn’t much of a grappler and won’t look to be offensive with takedowns very often. He showed off some good fight IQ, catching a kick and taking Khalil Roundtree down in round 1 when he was most explosive. He wasn’t able to have much top control time or do damage, but it shows he can follow a game plan and fight smart. He took him down again with a nice single leg in round 3, and in this round, he showed more top control. He was able to land some nice elbows, and body shots from full guard to keep Roundtree grounded. He has good takedown defense himself, but I have seen opponents get inside on him & take him down. Villante is notorious for not liking to wrestle, so I doubt he will have to worry about that here. His cardio is elite & that will be a massive advantage in this fight. I have not seen much of Michal off his back. He does have 1 submission & been submitted once himself. Oleksiejczuk needs to put the pressure on Villante, throw body shots & wear him out. The later this fight goes, the more & more it favors Michal as long as he comes back looking the same from the USADA suspension. The constant forward pressure & volume of Michal definitely will wear on Villante as the fight goes on.

 

Gian Villante

Age: 33

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205

Reach: 76”

Gym: Bellmore Kickboxing MMA

From: New York

UFC Record: 7-7

Fight Matrix: 34

Last Fought: 4 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: +170

 

Gian Villante has become a fan favorite, more for what he does out of the cage then in it. He seems to be a fighter who is in this for the ride & fun of it, and not 100% dedicated. He is a notorious drinker, and gets tired in every fight he’s in. He is a brawler who goes into fights to bang & go to war. He has had 4 consecutive fights go to split decision, and I’m sure he will want a finish here. Villante usually starts fights very well. He has a nasty jab, great leg kicks, and throws hard one-twos. He has a very nice overhand right, left hook combination. He throws hard & has good power. He will throw a jab, overhand right combo. He likes to throw lead left hooks. He has good body & head kicks. After the first round his volume stops significantly, and I feel his power does as well, because fighters will start walking him down. He doesn’t move his head & is super hittable. I feel that right hook & the body shots of Michal will be hard for Gian to deal with. His durability is a bit compromised, but he doesn’t have a bad chin. He has been finished 4 times by TKO. He has 10 KO/TKOs himself, but only 1 in his last 7 fights.

Villante is not an active wrestler and is the antithesis of a lay & prey fighter. He does have 5 UFC takedowns. He attempted a takedown in round 3 against Ed Herman when he was exhausted but did not land it. I have heard Matt Serra say he has a good grappling game & is strong on top. He says he is strangling black belts in the gym, so it will be interesting if we ever see that in the octagon. Villante has very good takedown defense and shucks off the clinch well too. He was able to stuff almost all the attempts of Patrick Cummings a D-1 wrestler, and I doubt he will get taken down in this matchup. He has never been submitted & only having two submissions himself. I feel Villante is going to possibly have a strong start, and he needs to try to take Michal out early if he can. I see his jab & overhand landing in round 1 and being effective keeping the distance. He needs to throw hard low kicks early to try to stop the forward pressure of Michal late. If Villante can get an early finish or early lead and cruise to a victory I see those as his paths to victory.

 

I think the line is right on this one and I think Oleksjejczuk is the rightful favorite. I think he is going to be the fighter landing more strikes and if there are takedowns in this fight I would think he is the one getting them. Both guys could get knocked out on the feet, but if this is a 3-round striking match, which is what I expect, then I favor Oleksjejczuk to get his hand raised at the end.

On DraftKings, this is a dog or pass fight I would say. Villante has the KO chance and if he can get it at his $7.3k price tag, then he should end up on the optimal. Oleksjejczuk on the other hand pretty much has to get a finish for him to end up on the optimal at $8.9k. I don’t see this fight hitting the mat and if this is a typical Villante fight then neither guy will score highly. I think the best move is to fade this fight altogether and hope the favorite wins a split decision.

Winner – Michal Oleksjejczuk via Unanimous Decision

 

Marcos Rogerio de Lima $8,400 vs Stefan Struve $7,800

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Age: 33

Height: 6’2

Weight: 253

Reach: 75”

Gym: ATT

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 5-3

Fight Matrix: 49

Last Fought: 3 Months

Last Five: 3-2

Current Streak: W1

Betting Odds: -135

 

Marcos Rogerio de Lima has a good stylistic matchup here. He is a short, compact, explosive fighter with knock out power. He also showed off his wrestling skills in his last match. He fought another very tall fighter in the 6’5 Adam Wieczorek with an 81” reach. Struve is still much taller, and has a longer reach by 3.5”, but it’s about as good as your going to get. De Lima is a power Muay Thai striker and starts quickly. He has nasty low kicks & kicks to the body. He will put 100% power into the kicks, and really chops down the legs of fighters. I see those leg kicks potentially being very effective vs Struve. He keeps a high guard & will explode in with left hook, straight right-hand combinations. He keeps good pressure on opponents, and did a good job forcing Wieczorek to have to circle with his back near the cage. He keeps a high guard & does a good job of returning with straight right hands after he blocks a shot. He will throw an overhand right, left uppercut combo. He is at his best when he’s backing fighters up, throwing in combination & finishing with low kicks. He will occasionally go high with kicks, but I don’t think he will this fight. He is dangerous when he lets his hands go in close range & he will have a hand speed advantage in this fight. He has 11 career KO/TKOs. He has a good chin & has only been finished by KO one time.

Marcos De Lima showed off his grappling a bit in his last fight. He was able to really bully Wieczorek in the clinch, control him against the cage and land clinch takedowns. On top he didn’t show much, he was able to control him on top, but didn’t land many shots. He did fight another fighter who has a dangerous guard and was able to avoid getting submitted. He has solid takedown defense, and obviously Struve isn’t going to shoot in on him. He was getting all his takedowns in the clinch. The clinch is where Struve is very hard to takedown & can reverse and get on top himself. I feel shooting double legs is a much safer proposition and will be better on his gas tank. He used to have a major cardio issue at 205, but he seemed to not have that problem at HW. He only has 3 career submissions. He has been submitted 3 times himself. De Lima should look to get inside, back Struve towards the fence and let his hands go. If he can get Struve thinking of the takedown, he can come over the top with a right hand & knock him out. He is also going to be faster in the pocket. I think early on the low kicks should be a big part of his game plan & I can see him hurting the legs of Struve.

 

Stefan Struve

Age: 31

Height: 7’0

Weight: 264

Reach: 84.5”

Gym: Team Schreiber

From:  Netherlands

UFC Record:  12-9

Fight Matrix: 26

Last Fought: 7 Months

Last Five: 2-3

Current Streak: L3

Betting Odds: +115

 

Struve has fallen on hard times as of late. He has lost 3 consecutive fights, and with a loss here is in danger of being cut. Struve is only 31 years old, but along with the heart issues, his damage meter is high. He has looked like a shell of himself in his last couple performances & needs to bounce back in a big way. Everyone knows Struve is the tallest fighter in MMA history, and will once again have a 9.5-inch reach advantage in this fight. Struve has a decent jab & strong straight right hand. He will throw check left hooks. He will throw a nice left hook, right uppercut combination, and will throw it 2/3 times in a row in the pocket. He has a nice outside low kick. He will throw a lot of front knees, along with front & round kicks to the body & head. He will throw head kicks & does a good job of hiding it behind a jab. He will throw flying knees. He has looked awful in his last two fights and was largely dominated. He is super tall & not the fleetest of foot. He has always had issues with short, explosive fighters who throw overhands. He will back up to the fence when he gets hurt & cover up instead of moving. He has been KO/TKOd many times & definitely has a questionable chin. He has been finished 7 times by KO/TKO. He is still dangerous & when he hurts opponents, he’s a finisher. He showed a small flash in his last match, where he hurt Tybura with a front kick up the middle and swarmed with punches. He has 8 career KO/TKOs.

Struve is a good Jiu-Jitsu player and has a ton of submissions in his career. He is very good in the clinch & his height gives him a huge advantage. He has good body lock trip takedowns and is very good in top position. He is super heavy on top & his height makes it very difficult to move under him. He likes to land shots from half guard, while looking for chokes. He has good darces & front chokes. He has good takedown defense in the clinch, but easily can get taken down with level changes. Tybura & Arlovski were able to take him down multiple times & rack up top control. He does have a good guard. He does a good job of trapping a wrist & trying to get triangles and armbars. He has gotten beat up in his guard by Overeem, and he didn’t attack with any submissions in his last two fights. He has 17 career submissions. He has been submitted 1 time in his career. He is a finisher and has finished 10 of his 12 UFC wins. His first 31 fights of his career only 1 went to decision. In his last 7 fights, 4 have gone to decision & it may be indicative of him not leaving it 100% out there anymore. He is 2-3 in decisions and has lost his last 3 fights that have gone to decision. Struve needs to use his reach, move his feet & throw straight punches, kicks & knees. He can offset the rhythm of Rogerio with front knees. I do think if he survives an early storm, he can maybe come back and take over late. It’s hard to gauge with Struve because we haven’t seen a good performance from him since the Volkov fight.

 

Struve is going to be 10 inches taller and has a 9-inch reach advantage in this fight. He is also good off his back and could get a submission from the bottom. He should also have the better gas tank, so he is a live underdog in this spot. However, I think he is slowing down and probably coming to the end of his career. I think de Lima is the more likely fighter to get a knockout and I think he could get it standing or with ground and pound. I think he would be the guy getting takedowns as well, and if he doesn’t get submitted then he should be winning on the ground as well. I am not confident in this pick, but I will go with the favorite to squeak out a decision. I think he will land the harder shots, maybe even get a knockdown, but ultimately doing more overall to get the judges nod.

On DraftKings, my preferred play is de Lima. I think he has the higher ceiling with the early KO possibility. I also think he will be the one to go for takedowns. Both guys are in play since this is a heavyweight fight, but I won’t have much exposure to Struve since he has looked so bad lately. If I was making 10 or less lineups, then I would rather fade the fight or take a shot on de Lima only. If there is no finish in this fight, then I think the winner would have a low score in the 60-70 range and that is what is keeping me away from rostering too much Lima. FDGTD line is currently -265, so that alone makes it a decent target in GPPs, but I think that line is a bit too high personally. I would stay away from both sides in cash games as well.

Winner – Marcos Rogerio de Lima via Unanimous Decision

 

Thiago Santos $8,500 vs Jan Blachowicz $7,700

Thiago Santos

Age: 35

Height: 6’0

Weight: 205

Reach: 76”

Gym: Tata Fight Team

From: Brazil

UFC Record: 12-5

Fight Matrix: 7

Last Fought: 2 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W3

Betting Odds: -110

 

This is an excellent main event. Jan Blachowicz & Thiago Santos have been on tears of late, and this could be a number one contenders bout. Jan Blachowicz turned around his career & has won 4 consecutive fights. He will be taking on Thiago Santos who has won 3 in a row & 7 of 8. He is 2-0 since moving to 205, but really has only faced one 205er in Jimi Manuwa. Santos has been extremely active & this will be his 6th fight in one years’ time. He has finished back to back opponents & seems to come out and get right to business at LHW. There was no feeling out process in his Manuwa fight. Santos went into the eye of the storm from the get, and almost took Manuwa out in the first 20 seconds. He eventually got a brutal second round knockout. Santos is a devastating striker, and one of the best kickers in the sport. His hands are not as good, but he has power and is very aggressive. He showed improvements to his hands in his last fight. He hurt Manuwa with a big right hand and finished him with a left uppercut, right hook, left hook combination. He likes to close the distance with powerful leaping hooks. He has a good, long left hook, and will try to follow it up with a rear right uppercut. Santos’ switch kick is one of the most powerful strikes in MMA. He will fold fighters with body kicks and put them to sleep with head kicks. He likes to use inside leg kicks to set up his left kick to the body, and if he can land it clean the fight is most likely over. Santos is usually the fighter who likes to move forward, but he will use stance switching to set up counter kicks. He does a good job of switching to southpaw to give a little ground to his opponent, and immediately landing the left kick as they come forward. Santos also has a nasty, spinning hook kick. He finished Jack Marshman with it, and it’s a scary technique. Santos is hittable, and he doesn’t take shots well. He can get too over aggressive with his hands, get countered and clipped. He also is very bad defensively against the cage. He doesn’t keep a high guard, and instead tries to fight out of it by throwing wide hooks. It gives opponents chances to counter and hurt him. Santos has 13 KO/TKOs in his career and been finished 3 times by strikes himself.

Santos has improved his grappling and is now a solid wrestler. He does a good job of using punches & kicks to back his opponents to the fence, where he will get easy double legs. On top he will throw brutal ground & pound. He has nasty elbows to the body & head and will throw heavy hammer fists. He has good control in top position, and when he gets on top of opponents, he definitely does damage. He isn’t a submission threat and will really only look for ground & pound. Santos has good takedown defense himself. He will sprawl on attempts and does a good job of making opponents pay with short elbows when they attempt to take him down. He battered Jack Hermannson with shots as he tried to take him down before finishing him. Santos can get off balance when he throws certain kicks, and Anthony Smith was able to capitalize and move directly into mount off of a slip. He can be exploited on the ground off his back. Eric Spicely was able to quickly submit him & he doesn’t want to be on his back with Jan on top of him. Santos has only 1 career submission & has been submitted twice. Santos does tend to gas & I don’t see him being able to keep the same pace 5 rounds. He has finished 15 of his 20 wins & been finished in 5 of his 6 losses. Santos needs to be aggressive early and try to take Blachowicz out. I think that he will be the faster, more dynamic striker & he needs to make it wild & crazy and capitalize like he did vs Manuwa.

 

Jan Blachowicz

Age: 35

Height: 6’2

Weight: 205

Reach: 78”

Gym: Berkut WCA Fight Team

From: Poland

UFC Record: 6-4

Fight Matrix: 10

Last Fought: 5 Months

Last Five: 4-1

Current Streak: W4

Betting Odds: -110

 

Jan Blachowicz is a very well-rounded fighter. He is a technical boxer with devastating liver kicks & a strong grappling game. He is the more well-rounded fighter, and if this fight is to hit the ground it will be most likely Jan getting the takedown. He is a much more patient and technical striker than Santos. He has a very good jab, and he keeps a high guard, using solid lateral movement, fakes and feints to set up his shots. He has a nasty uppercut and will double or even triple up on the jab. He was able to close the distance with long, straight punches and hooks against Manuwa and was super-fast and accurate with his hands, dropping Manuwa multiple times. In the pocket he does a great job of landing short left and right hooks along with his uppercut. He has great eyes in the pocket, is calm and uses good head movement to see the shots from his opponent coming and then countering. He has a nasty left body kick, but he doesn’t throw it as much as he used to. He has a nice inside leg kick. He will finish combinations with a nice clinch knee. He will go high with head kicks. Blachowicz definitely doesn’t have the knock out power of Santos, but he can still crack. He has 5 career KO/TKOs & an insane chin never being finished by strikes. His one TKO loss to Sokoudjou was due to a cut.

Blachowicz does a great job of setting up double leg takedowns and is a black belt in BJJ. He is pretty strong in the clinch, he has good underhooks and will land short shots for control. On top he is very strong with good ground & pound and dangerous submissions. He showed some great strength in his last match sweeping Krylov after he took him down & dominating on top. He was able to transition with ease & always was looking for kimuras and straight arm bars. He eventually took Krylov down again to start round two, quickly transitioned to dice control again, grabbed an arm triangle and closed the show. He needs to use his physicality here & try to grapple with Maheta. He is going to be the bigger, most likely physically stronger fighter, and I feel on top he will have a big advantage. He has pretty solid takedown defense when he has the cardio, and he really lost in the past mainly due to cardio issues. He has returned to his old gym from when he was successful early in his career and has looked phenomenal. Berkut WCA Fight Team is one of the best teams in Poland, packed with talent including great HW boxer Artur Szpilka. They have produced UFC fighters Daniel Omelunchuk, Bartosz Fabinski, Piotr Strauss, and Damian Stasiak. Blachowicz has 9 career submissions, and has been submitted just once himself. He has never been finished in the UFC. Blachowicz needs to close the distance and jam the kicks of Santos. He should look to back Santos against the cage, work his hands to set up his takedowns and get Santos to the mat. I feel in the pocket, in boxing range & on the floor Jan has the advantage in this fight.

 

This should be an awesome fight. Both guys are on a roll and the winner could be in title contention after the fight. I think Santos is the more dangerous striker and he also strikes at the much higher pace, landing 5.02 significant strikes per minute compared to 3.64 from Jan. If this fight stays standing, then I think Santos gets a KO or a decision win by being the better striker and landing the harder shots, at the higher rate. However, the path to victory for Jan is by getting this fight to the ground and using his grappling to win a decision that way or even work towards a submission. The line for Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is currently -400 and if there is going to be a finish, I favor Santos to get it. He is going to be my pick by 2nd round knockout.

On DraftKings, I expect Jan to be the chalk of the card. He is $700 cheaper, but the betting line is currently even. I think that is what makes him the highest owned fighter on the card this week. I have no issue with that play and I think he is solid for cash games even with the low floor, but I will be underweight to the field and my preferred play is Santos. I am hoping he is closer to 30% owned by the with Jan being near 50%. I think my exposures would be the opposite. I also think I will stack this fight in cash to take the 100+ points, but I would say if you are using just one of them in cash then it should be Jan with the odds value.

Winner – Thiago Santos via 2nd round (T)KO

 

 

 

 

Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!

 

 

 

*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru

**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.

*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/

  • Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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