BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
-Event – UFC on ESPN 1 -Location – Phoenix, Arizona
Thanks for purchasing my UFC on ESPN 1 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight PPV card in Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some decent contests for us for this Sunday card. The main GPP is a $10 buy-in and $20k goes to 1st place, and there will be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that final contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 50 or so entries at that $20k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC 234 fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Alexandra Albu $8,600 vs Emily Whitmire $7,600
Alexandra Albu
Age: 28
Height: 5’2
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: MMA-KEGI
From: Republic of Moldova
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-0
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -130
Alexandra Albu is undefeated in the UFC but has been extremely inactive. She has been in the UFC since 2015 and is only 2-0. She will be challenging Emily Whitmire who is coming off a win over Jamie Moyle after a debut loss to Gillian Robertson. Albu is a very powerful fighter, but stiff. Her straight right hand, and right hook have decent pop & she is very aggressive, especially in round 1. She will throw left hook straight right-hand combinations. She will throw body & head kicks. She will just run forward with punch combinations with absolutely no set up & her chin in the air. She is still very wild & novice on the feet. She will attempt to use her jab, but it comes slow & fighters are easily able to counter. She is explosive & can close the distance pretty quickly. She will throw spinning back fists, but she doesn’t set them up very well. She doesn’t have good movement, and when fighters pressure her she will just back straight up. Albu has a good chin & is willing to eat shots to get inside. She even ate a nasty illegal up kick to the face in her last match against Curran, that seemed to not even phase her. She is 3-0 in her career & still has very little cage time.
Albu is not a great grappler, but she is more comfortable grappling than striking. She is very strong & against low level fighters she has been able to just use brute strength to overpower them. She can get backed up with punches & out her back right against the cage. Opponents have had success controlling her & landing shots from that position as well as getting body lock takedowns. Albu will also pull guard when she is in the clinch at times, which shows poor IQ. She will attempt leg locks off her back, but she isn’t nearly dangerous enough, or has a good enough get up game to be risking being on her back for the small chance of a submission. She can be controlled on the ground & doesn’t do much off her back once opponents pass her guard. She will explode & early on in fights get up, but as her cardio goes she is hard pressed to stand up. She did get a guillotine in her UFC debut, when an opponent shot a double leg on her. She does have decent body lock takedowns of her own to go along with hip throws. She has a lot of power & can really slam opponents down to the mat with force. On top she will frame on opponent’s faces & try to land hard hammer fists from opponent’s guards. She leaves a lot of openings for arm bars & doesn’t have great top control from that position. When she is able to get a hip toss directly into side control she seems most comfortable there throwing short elbows. She doesn’t have an overly dangerous top game, but with her power she could have good top control & ground & pound ability. She has one finish via ground & pound and has finished 2 of her 3 pro fights. She has questionable cardio & doesn’t know how to pace herself yet. She has a lot of raw intangibles, but she is still learning the basics of fighting such as composure & decision making. Albu should look to strike in this matchup & avoid the urge to grapple. She is going to be faster & more powerful, and Whitmire is hittable & developing in her striking. If this fight becomes a three-round striking match, I feel Albu is more likely to win, along with being more likely to hurt Whitmire than vice versa.
Emily Whitmire
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +110
Emily Whitmire is a long time Xtreme Couture product & primarily a grappler. She has fought the much better competition, along with having much more experience. She had her first amateur first all the way back in 2010. Whitmire is coming off an upset victory against Jamie Moyle & is once again an underdog here. Whitmire is a more polished striker than Albu. She is a tall fighter with a 4-inch height advantage in this fight. She likes to use a jab & a straight right hand. She keeps her punches straight & I do feel like that the jab will cause Albu issues. Whitmire will throw the occasional round kick to the body. I have not seen her throw the front kick to the body much, but I feel that kick will be more effective in this fight. Albu comes in on straight lines & she could use it as a second jab, along with putting money in the bank with body blows. She will throw decent inside outside leg kicks at time. She likes to throw a straight right hand to a body kick combination. She isn’t very athletic & Albu is going to be much faster closing distance, as well as with her hand speed. She stands very tall & doesn’t have the quickest feet. Whitmire has improved with her footwork, but she still can be too flat footed & fighters get inside on her. She isn’t dangerous & doesn’t have knock out power. She has been TKO’d one time on TUF, but she wasn’t hurt bad, she just got stuck in a position on the ground & couldn’t get out of it.
Whitmire is big & physical for the division. It is going to be interesting to see if she can hold her own in the strength department, if she can, that’s bad news for Albu. Whitmire was much bigger than Moyle in her UFC 115 lb debut, and had previously fought at 125 lbs. She is a wrestler and has good, fast entries on her clinch takedowns. She does a good job of getting a strong body lock position and finding an angle and dumping her opponents. She will control position in the clinch if she can’t land the takedown and look for trips while landing some knees against the cage. She got an arm bar against Christina Marks on the show, and then lost to Roxanne Modafferi. She is not very good off her back, but she showed slight improvements in the Gillian Robertson and heart to try to persevere and survive bad positions. Overall, she doesn’t do a good job of not letting her opponents get into a dominant position on top and eventually get mount and take the back. She did a good job of getting Robertson off her back and getting on top. She actually landed a couple nice ground & pound shots before getting arm barred by a pretty nasty transition. Gillian Robertson has proven to be the real deal. She got a nice double leg takedown in her last fight. She used her length to stand up & land shots in guard & then quickly move to half guard. She is very heavy in half guard & doesn’t give opponents space to stand up. She likes to trap the closest arm with wrist control and her knee, and then land ground & pound with Moyle only having one arm to defend. She will look for arm triangles & if opponents get too crazy trying to explode she will just take mount. If she gets on top of Albu I don’t think Albu will be able to stand up. Whitmire needs to respect the athleticism and power of Albu early. She needs to get inside, clinch up with her, put her on the cage & land body shots and control her. She needs to try to zap her gas tank a bit & then in round 2, when she’s slower, her straight punches will cut Albu off better. She also should look to duck under and double leg Albu when she closes distance. She is going to have a cardio & technique advantage.
I am not real impressed with either of these fighters, but I think Albu will be much stronger than Emily Whitmire and I think she is the more likely fighter to finish the fight as well. I think she will be the one landing the harder shots and doing more damage on the feet, and I think her strength will help her if this fight goes to the mat. I think she can get takedowns and work some ground and pound to help her get the judges nod, or a finish. The worry with Albu is that all that muscle drains her quickly and she gasses late in the fight, like she did in her UFC debut. She was still able to get a win in that fight though and I would assume she has worked on her cardio, so I am picking her to get the job done by a 29-28 unanimous decision. Whitmire’s best way to win is probably by winning the last half of the fight if she can make Albu gas out early. She does have some DK though value with her current line of +110 and $1k cheaper than Albu.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Albu. I like her more so for GPPs with the line movement going in Whitmire’s direction, but if you want to use Whitmore in cash games for the value then I think that is fine. I like the pace Albu sets and she should be the one landing takedowns and landing the harder shots on the feet. Against Curran she scored 102 DK points and if she can do that again here at $8.6k, and likely lower ownership, then that can help win a GPP. I won’t go super heavy on Albu but I do want to be overweight to the field and I will have a full GPP fade on Whitmire. Even if Whitmire wins I wouldn’t expect more than 10x and I am not even sure if she would get that.
Winner – Alexandra Albu via Unanimous Decision
Luke Sanders $8,700 vs Renan Barao $7,500
Luke Sanders
Age: 33
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Nashville MMA
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 78
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -175
Luke Sanders has been very up & down in his UFC career. He has decent intangible’s and is one of those fighters who is usually winning, until he’s losing. Sanders is athletic, & much more explosive at this stage than Barao. He has big power & can close the show with one shot. He has a good jab and will throw nice one-twos and jab right hooks. His hooks have big power, and I do think it will hurt Barao when he lands. He will throw straight punching combinations and is aggressive. He doesn’t throw many kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick. He has 6 career KO/TKOs. He has gotten knocked out once by Andre Soukhamthath.
Sanders is a physical fighter for the division. He likes to push opponents behind the double black line with pressure & use punches to get in the clinch. He has nice knees to the body & solid clinch control. He will land nice shots off the break. He has good single leg takedowns. On top he is very effective with ground & pound. He showed that off with brutal G&P from the wrestling ride position against Iuri Alcántara. He has good top control. He was able to stop Maximo Blanco & quickly submitted him with a rear naked choke. However, he can have lapses of concentration on top & get submitted. He was submitted by a leg lock after dominating Alcántara. He has good takedown defense himself & I don’t think Barao can take him down. He was just quickly submitted by Rani Yahya and should be working on his submission defense. Sanders has two submissions & been submitted twice. Sanders needs to keep this fight standing, use heavy forward pressure and put the volume on Barao. If he can land clean he can knock Barao out.
Renan Barao
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-6
Fight Matrix: 58
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +155
Renan Barao is much less explosive & not the dangerous fighter he once was. He really doesn’t even show glimpses of what he once was on the feet. He likes to circle & walk opponents into his strikes. He will throw jabs & check left hooks. He will throw front kicks to the body, and actually has nice low leg kicks. He doesn’t deal well with pressure & his speed that he once had is basically gone. He will throw lazy jabs & fighters are able to counter with overhands and hurt him. He will throw straight punches down the middle and will throw a left hook straight right hand. He doesn’t let go nearly as much and is a bit gun shy. He rarely throws body or head kicks anymore & isn’t much of a knock out threat. Barao hasn’t had a KO/TKO since 2014. He has 8 KO/TKOs in his career. His durability has diminished significantly, but he has only been finished twice by KO/TKO.
He has become more of a grappler in recent fights & will look to get double under hooks in the clinch. He has good head positioning and can control opponents against the cage. He will look for body lock trips and is a black belt in BJJ. He has good top control & can hold opponents down, but he isn’t very dangerous. He was able to get a takedown in his last match & win round 1. He was able to get half guard & land some decent elbows, while attacking with arm triangles. He had a very easy path to victory in that fight, by continuing to get takedowns & just didn’t do it. He seems to fight on auto pilot much more now and try to survive rather than win the fight. He has 15 career submissions, but none since 2014. He has lost 5 of 6 fights & is really the definition of a shot fighter. Barao is going to need to try to submit Luke Sanders here in my opinion. Sanders hits hard & is faster than Barao at this stage. If Barao stands with him I find it unlikely, he catches and hurts Sanders, and Sanders will be the busier more powerful striker. Barao should try to take him down & exploit Sanders BJJ like Yahya & Alcántara did & find a submission.
This fight is a bit of comedy. Two guys who are almost impossible to trust, with two very different legacies. Renan Barao the former p4p #1 fighter in the world, has been a ghost of his old self since his losses to TJ Dillashaw. He has lost 4 of his last 5 fights all to progressively lesser competition. He looked awful in his match vs Andre Ewell. Luke Sanders lost very quickly to Rani Yahya his last time out & showed awful fight IQ in his UFC career. He is actually the older fighter, but much less weathered, and has a lot more left in the tank. I do think Sanders picks up a unanimous decision or a TKO here. This pick is more of a fade on Barao than it is me trusting Luke Sanders to get the win. It is hard to trust Sanders who is only 2-3 in the UFC, but I think he has more power at this point in their careers and I think he will have the wrestling advantage as well. After the downfall we have seen from Barao, I am not sure I could pick him over almost any legit UFC fighter these days.
On DraftKings, Sanders is my preferred play of the two. Sanders averages 5.92 sig strikes landed per minute compared to 3.7 from Barao. I think the pace Sanders sets is going to wear on Barao and if he can land clean shots then maybe he gets the finish as well. If he can’t get the finish then I think he still gets it done on the scorecards, it will just be harder to end up on the first-place lineup. I will be targeting both sides of this fight for GPPs though. I don’t love many underdogs and we know Sanders has poor fight IQ, so I think Barao is in play for that reason alone. If he can get a win then I would think he gets at least 10x his $7.5k salary and that could win a GPP. I will be heavier on Luke Sanders personally, but I could see me being overweight on both sides for GPPs because I think the winner will score well for their price tag.
Winner – Luke Sanders via 2nd round (T)KO
Jessica Penne $8,400 vs Jodie Esquibel $7,800
Jessica Penne
Age: 36
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 67”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 10 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -145
Jessica Penne is returning after nearly 2 years off. She was suspended by USADA for 18 months, and at 36 it’s hard to gauge what she will look like in her return. Jodie Esquibel is 0-2 in the UFC and coming off a bad loss to Jessica Aguilar. Penne is actually 0-3 in her last three UFC fights, so I imagine this is a loser gets cut match. This is a striker vs grappler fight. Jessica Penne is a former Invicta champion, and UFC title challenger. She is primarily a Jiu-Jitsu player, & not a great striker. Penne is a tall fighter & throws a jab straight right hand out there. She has a decent one two and will throw a long right hook. She will throw lead overhand rights. She has good front kicks to the body. She will throw front & round kicks to the head. She isn’t very fast & her defense is not good. She doesn’t move her head & she stands in front of opponents instead of moving her feet. She can get backed up to the fence & instead of moving her feet she just shells up. She has a hell of a chin & a good mentality. She can weather storms and come back to win. She took massive punishment in her two TKO losses but was finished standing vs Joanna & Andrade. She isn’t a big standing knock out threat with only two career TKOs.
Penne is a black belt in BJJ & has a solid Jiu-Jitsu game. She will try to duck under & get double under hooks. If she can get into the clinch. She will grab the Muay Thai plum and land knees to the head. She will try to hold opponents against the clinch & has decent head positioning. She has decent body lock trips. She will pull guard & does a good job of trying to jump on the back. She will attempt double legs, but she can shoot them from too far outside at times & get countered with big shots. If she can get on top she is aggressive. She will look to move to mount & has good ground & pound. She can get too high on the mount & get rolled at times. She also can get too aggressive at times in scrambles & end up on bottom. She has a very good guard & has dexterous legs. She will use a high guard & even a rubber guard. She has tried to attack with gogoplatas in the UFC. She has nice elbows from her guard & her opponents always have to be aware of the triangle & arm bar. She has good sweeps off her back and is very comfortable there. Penne has 8 submissions in her career. She has only been submitted one time by Michelle Waterson. Penne has good cardio & is going to be coming in here with much more high-level experience. She has a good mentality & will always feel she can win the fight. Penne should take this fight to the ground. If she can get on top of Esquibel, or even pull guard, I think she will be levels above her on the mat. In her time off, she has been in the gym, and hopefully she comes out here with some better striking.
Jodie Esquibel
Age: 32
Height: 5’1
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Jackson Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 0-2
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +125
Jodie Esquibel is getting her third crack to get a UFC victory. She is a striker fighting out of Jackson-Wink MMA. Esquibel likes to use a lot of lateral movement, and then dart in for blitz attacks. She will throw a jab right hook or jab straight right hand. She will throw uppercut left hook combinations. She rarely throws kicks but will throw the occasional leg kicks & front kicks to the body. She tends to struggle to find her range, throwing from too far out & is an air puncher. She has only one TKO, doesn’t have great power, and I would be shocked to see her get a standing finish. She has never been finished by strikes & her style of staying mobile makes it hard to KO her.
Esquibel has a low center of gravity, and it aids her in grappling situations. Her height makes it hard to shoot takedowns on her, and fighters have to use the clinch most of the time to get her down. She will close distance herself & crash into the clinch to control opponents against the cage. She has decent head positioning & will throw knees to the body. She fought a very similar, but lesser opponent to Penne in Deanna Bennett. Bennett in the one time she took down Esquibel, had a fully extended armbar, that Jodie got out of. Esquibel is tough & is not a quick tapper. She got her back taken & submitted with a rear naked choke quickly against Alex Chambers, and if Penne gets her down she will be in a lot of trouble. Esquibel has lost 4 of 5 fights, and you have to imagine, she is questioning whether she is UFC level. She doesn’t have the memories of being a former Invicta champion, fighting for a UFC title that Penne does to earn confidence from. Esquibel needs to keep this fight on the feet, use movement, blitz in & land her boxing combinations. She needs to be more willing to get hit & step into range to land. If this fight remains on the feet all three rounds I see it being very close, but Esquibel’s best chance to victory.
This fight has a combined UFC record of 1-5. I would imagine the loser gets cut here and my guess is that will be Jodie Esquibel. I have never been impressed with Esquibel and I don’t think she is really anywhere near UFC level, but she does have a winnable fight here because Penne has looked just as bad lately and is now 36 years old coming off almost a 2-year break. Penne has looked good in the past though and is the more well-rounded fighter, so I have to lean with her to get the job done. I think on the feet this fight will be very close, but if Penne can get the fight to the ground then that will be the edge she needs, and she could pick up a submission. If she can’t get the sub then the ground game should at least give her the judges nod, assuming she can get it there. If this fight stays standing for 15-minutes, then Esquibel could pull off an upset in a close fight.
On DraftKings, Penne is my preferred play and I expect her to be low owned. I think she can get takedowns and possibly a submission, and if she can get a sub at $8.4k at ~10% ownership then maybe she ends up on the optimal lineup. If she doesn’t get a submission then I don’t think she has a very high ceiling, and probably wouldn’t be worth playing, but I will be taking some GPP shots for that sub possibility. I don’t see how Esquibel scores highly, so I will be full fading her. I think a decision win is her path to victory and I don’t see how that turns into a high score. She will probably be the lowest owned fighter on the whole card though so if you are looking for a reason to play her than that would be it. I don’t care for either side in cash games so it’s GPP only and Penne only for me.
Winner – Jessica Penne via 3rd round submission
Scott Holtzman $8,500 vs Nik Lentz $7,700
Scott Holtzman
Age: 35
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Tennessee
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 43
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -170
This is a battle of two veterans coming off wins. Scott Holtzman looked great dominating Alan Patrick in an upset victory his last time out. Nik Lentz also had a nice finish against Gray Maynard. Holtzman is one of the bigger 155ers in the division, looking especially diesel in his last match, and will have a significant size advantage. He started training at the MMA Lab & looked much improved last time out. Holtzman is a fairly athletic fighter & will have the speed advantage in this fight. Holtzman walks opponents down & has solid in & out movement. He will throw nice inside leg kicks & has a good straight left hand. He will throw left hooks also. He will throw a straight left hand overhand right or straight right combination. He does a good job of throwing counter check left hooks or counter straight right hands. In the past he could stay in the pocket too long, throwing lazy, touching shots & get countered with a power punch. He does have nice uppercuts in close range, and when he backs opponents towards the cage he will swarm with hook uppercut combinations. He has good front kicks to the body & head. He will also throw nice round kicks to the head. He does a good job of feinting kicks to set up his punches. He likes to close the distance when fighters are against the cage with flying knees & flying jump kicks. He has a strong chin & can recover quickly. He has solid power with 4 KO/TKOs, including one in his last fight against Alan Patrick. He has never been finished.
Scott Holtzman is very physical for the division & a strong grappler. He has great double leg takedowns. He has good timing on them and has a strong drive. He can pick fighters up & slam them. He will grab a single leg & drive opponents to the cage, then turn it to a double leg. He has good body lock takedowns also & is strong in the clinch. On top, he has good ground & pound elbows & solid top control. He dropped Alan Patrick in his last fight took the mount & finished him with nasty ground & pound. He has very good takedown defense and is hard to hold down. When opponents take him down he does a great job of popping back up. He can be taken down against the cage with double legs. He isn’t much of a submission threat with only 2 in his career. He did have a rear naked choke in his UFC debut. He has never been finished & lost to two solid fighters in Josh Emmett & Drew Dober via decision. Holtzman always comes in shape, ready to go & has good cardio. He is the younger, more durable fighter & I see him wanting to keep it on the feet & bang it out. He will be the quicker, more powerful fighter on the feet. If he can pressure Lentz, stuff his takedowns & counter him when he closes the distance, he could catch and hurt him.
Nik Lentz
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 68”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Minnesota
UFC Record: 13-6-1-1
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +150
Nik Lentz is coming up on 10 years in the UFC and has really had a great career. He is 2-1 since leaving ATT & joining Combat Club with 3 solid showings. This will be his 22nd UFC fight and with a win, he will probably be looking at a top 15 opponent again. He was given a bit of a cup cake in his last match vs the aging Gray Maynard but handled him like you’re supposed to knocking him out with a head kick. Lentz has been known more as a grappler over his career & I see him trying to get this fight to the ground. Lentz is a bit of a plodder, but he is aggressive. He has nice heavy low kicks. He will throw jab right hooks, and he has good body kicks. He will counter jabs with overhand rights and has some OK pop in that shot. He showed off a nice head kick in his last fight, dropping & ultimately finishing Maynard after it. He is also good at catching kicks himself & taking opponents down or striking off it. He does have 8 career KO/TKOs. He is tough & has a good chin only being finished twice in his career.
Nik Lentz is a grinder, and grappling is his bread & butter. He does a good job of using punches to close the distance & or just taking shots to get inside and get in the clinch. He likes to get the single collar clinch & push opponents to the cage. He has good knees to the body & head and has great elbows. He has good double legs as well as body lock takedowns & on top he has great ground & pound. He will throw nasty elbows, good punches & slow cooks a lot of his opponents with a steady stream of shots. He is very opportunistic with submissions & has a great guillotine especially. He has 11 career submissions & has only been submitted twice in his career. Lentz is going to need to pressure Holtzman, force him into a grappling heavy fight, and see if he makes a mistake. Lentz is going to be out gunned on the feet a bit in my opinion, but he will land some shots himself. If he can catch Holtzman in a submission, or get top position, that’s probably his best way to win.
I think Holtzman and Nik Lentz are similar style fighters, but I have to give the edge to Holtzman pretty much everywhere. I think he will be the more active fighter and he should be the stronger fighter as well, which should help him control where this fight takes place. I think he has more power on the feet, and I think he has the better wrestling as well. The only worry I have here with Holtzman is the guillotine from Lentz. Nik does have one of the best guillotines and he could catch Holtzman with it if he gets sloppy with takedowns. I expect Holtzman to keep this fight standing for the most part and if it’s closer than he would like on the feet then he will use his wrestling to get the job done. Lentz is hard to finish so I will pick this to go all 15-minutes, but Holtzman is the pick here and I expect a 30-27 win.
On DraftKings, I like Holtzman for all formats. I think he is a better cash play than GPP play because I feel good about him getting the win, but I don’t know how high his ceiling is. I will still be using him in GPPs, but I think he will be pretty popular at his price, so I don’t think he is a must. I think Lentz is an OK GPP play if you want to go that route, but I will probably only throw him in 1-2 lineups at most personally. I do expect Holtzman to be the most popular fighter under $9k though, so if you want to fade him for ownership purposes then I think that would be a solid move if you are only making 3-5 LUs. That is another reason I like him a good bit for cash games. We don’t care about ownership there.
Winner – Scott Holtzman via Unanimous Decision
Andrea Lee $8,900 vs Ashlee Evans-Smith $7,300
Andrea Lee
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Karate Mafia MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -170
Andrea Lee is 1-0 in the UFC, and with a win here either fighter would probably get a top 5 opponent. She will be taking on Ashlee Evans-Smith, as a short notice replacement. She was scheduled to fight Jessica Rose-Clark in late 2018, but Rose-Clark had issues with the weight cut so the fight was canceled. So, I presume that she is in good shape & has been sharpening her skills. This is her first fight since her domestic violence incident & we have to see how those distractions will affect her in the cage. Lee is the former LFA 125 lb champion and won 5 consecutive fights. Lee is a strong athlete, and very physical for the division. She is an ok striker. She throws a lot of inside & outside leg kicks. She will throw a nice jab, and decent check left hook. She will throw an overhand right, and she does a good job of digging to the body with hooks. She throws hard body kicks. She is a bit of a plodder with her footwork. She is hittable, and her defense on the feet leaves a lot to be desired. She can also throw kicks without setting them up and get countered. Andrea Lee doesn’t have big power, with only two KO/TKOs in her career. She is very tough and has a good chin, willing to take punishment, and keep coming.
Lee is very strong strong in the clinch, and it’s where she is strongest in the octagon. She has great control and will get a single collar or a Muay Thai plum, and land hard knees to the body & head. She does a good job of trapping a wrist, while having an under hook, and throwing hard knees to the body. She will close the distance, get body locks, along with double legs. She also likes to get hip tosses in the clinch. She likes to circle to the back in the clinch and drag her opponent to the ground. She can get too over aggressive going for takedowns and be countered ending up on her back. On top she has hard ground & pound. She has good passing ability, and the ability to float and improve position as her opponent tries to scramble. She has solid arm triangles. She will transition to the back very quickly and has good rear naked chokes. She was throwing a lot of leg kicks from standing position in her last fight while Macedo was on her back and was able to control large portions of the fight this way. When she is on her back, she isn’t very good once fighters are able to cement position on her, but she is explosive, and hard to establish top position on before jumping back to her feet. She has 4 submissions in her career and was submitted in her lone loss. Andrea Lee is going to be the faster fighter & quicker in & out. She should attack the body of Evans-Smith with kicks & then try to go to the head. She needs to stay off her back, but if she does end up there, attack with submissions.
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Black House MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +150
Ashlee Evans-Smith is 1-0 at 125 & with a win here would be closer to a title shot than she has ever been in the UFC. She has moved her camp to Kings MMA & says it has helped build her confidence. Evans-Smith was scheduled to fight Antonina Shevchenko, but had a LCL tear, and that fight was canceled. She said the injury has affected her weight cut for this fight, so you have to wonder if she was 100% in camp. Evans-Smith is a former college wrestler but has preferred to strike in most fights. She likes to throw a lot of one-twos & inside outside leg kicks. She will throw a double jab right hook, and a straight right left hook combination. She will throw round & front kicks to the body. She will throw front kicks & spinning back kicks to the head. She attempted a couple spinning back fists vs Rawlings, but they were very slow. She was doing a better job of throwing in combination to close distance in her last fight. She stands tall & is still stiff as a striker. She isn’t very fast & she doesn’t move her head much. She isn’t much of a standing knockout threat but has 3 TKOs mostly on the ground. She has a strong chin, never being finished. She took bombs from Ketlen Viera, who is a powerful 135er.
Ashlee Evans-Smith is a strong wrestler, and good overall grappler. She is strong in the clinch, she does a good job of grabbing a single collar clinch & letting shots go. She will throw knees & short uppercuts to the body & head. She will also throw nice knees to the head. She has strong body lock takedowns & will land directly into side control. She has heavy elbows from side control, finishing Veronica Macedo from that position. She also has a solid blast double leg. She has a solid top game & can finish fighters with ground & pound. She can be submitted, and in Lee’s guard she will be in danger. She has been submitted twice in her career and has no submissions. She slowed down a bit in the later rounds against Rawlings, but she doesn’t have bad cardio. Ashlee Evans-Smith needs to use smart pressure, push Lee back, and try to control her against the fence and take her down. If she can get takedowns into side control, she will do damage and be able to control Lee. I also think she could be stronger than Lee and have more volume in the clinch.
I think this fight is closer than the line indicates, but I do think Lee is the rightful favorite. I think the longer this fight stays at distance the more it will benefit Lee, and if she can stay on the outside and pick her shots then she should get the win. If Ashlee Evans-Smith can get this fight into the clinch or to the mat, then she should have the edge and she could pull of the upset if that is the case. I think Smith will be the better wrestler in this match and that is probably her only path to victory. I don’t see her having much of a shot on the feet and I think Lee has a chance of stuffing takedowns and keeping this standing. I am going to lean with Lee to win 2 rounds with her striking, but I think Smith steals at least one round by getting a takedown or two and using her top control.
On DraftKings, this is the first fight of the night where the underdog is my preferred play. Even though I am not picking her to win this fight, I think $7.3k is a good price tag for her and she is a live dog IMO. If she wins, it will be a grappling-based game plan and that is what scores well on DK. I also think she gets 3 rounds of action, so she is a solid cash game option as well. If this week is anything like last week, then maybe a 38-point loss from her makes the optimal lineup. I doubt that will be the case though. But, we can take that loss in cash games, so she is a fine play in that format if you want to use her as your punt. I am probably going to full fade Lee at her $8.9k price tag. I would rather just pay up into the $9k range and I like Sanders and Holtzman more for cheaper.
Winner – Andrea Lee via Split Decision
Manny Bermudez $9,100 vs Benito Lopez $7,100
Manny Bermudez
Age: 24
Height: 5’10
Weight: 135
Reach: 72.5”
Gym: South Shore Sportfighting
From: Massachusetts
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 66
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W13
Betting Odds: -200
Manny Bermudez is a very dangerous submission artist & I have been very impressed with his UFC career. Bermudez is raw on the feet, but he has a good jab and decent head movement. He will throw one twos down the pipe, as well as left hooks. He looks uncomfortable at times on the feet and can shoot from too far out or flop to his back. He keeps his lead hand very low and can be open with his striking due to that. He is obviously improving in his striking & has to have gained confidence from his last fight. He dropped Davey Grant with a hard-right hand & transitioned right into a mounted triangle to submit him. Bermudez just has 1 TKO in his career & hasn’t been finished with strikes yet.
Manny Bermudez is going to be a legit contender in the future in my opinion. He has incredible Jiu-Jitsu. His legs are extremely fast with triangles and armbars on bottom and he will attack with omaplatas and does a great job of always attacking off his back. He has a nasty top game and transitions with ease to the mount. He does a great job of turking the legs & moving to mount. He will take the back & has a good rear naked choke. He got a guillotine from the standing clinch position very similar to Cub Swanson vs Brian Ortega and he has very similar Jiu-Jitsu. He will attack with flying triangles & jump on guillotines as well. He put Davey Grant to sleep with a nasty triangle in his last fight and has 10 submission wins. He has finished his last 5 fights via submission. Bermudez is going to need to look to close the distance, get into boxing range, and use his hands. If he can land a big shot like in his last fight or use them to set up the takedown he needs to get inside and get it to the ground, even if he pulls guard, he will have a major edge on the ground.
Benito Lopez
Age: 24
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: 73”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 97
Last Fought: 1 Year 2 months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: +170
Benito Lopez earned his spot in the UFC off a tough split decision win, against now fellow UFC veteran Steven Peterson. He followed it up with a win over Albert Morales. He is an athletic striker, and very dynamic. He will throw a lot of kicks, inside outside leg kicks, nice body & head kicks. He has nice front kicks to the body & head. He will throw nasty round kicks to the head, & great question mark kicks to the head. He has nasty flying knees, he dropped & almost submitted Morales in round one after a flying knee. He has very nice spinning kicks to the body & head. He still doesn’t have great hands or footwork. He will throw jabs out there & switches stances frequently. He will throw straight right hands & right hooks. He can get clipped with punches & I don’t like the way he reacts to getting hit clean, he can freeze a bit. He allows fighters to back him up & get inside. He needs space to be effective & fighters can nullify a lot of his game with forward pressure. He isn’t the most powerful striker, but with more time in the cage I can see him start to get more knockouts. He has 3 KO/TKOs in his career, & undefeated at 9-0.
Lopez has very questionable grappling skills in my opinion. He allows fighters to back him to the fence easily & he doesn’t do a good job of getting off the fence. He was controlled against the fence for a large period of time against Steven Peterson. He can get taken down with body locks & single legs. He also can get outmuscled in the clinch. Fighters can circle to his back & if Manny Bermudez can get to that position he could be in trouble. He is opportunistic with his own submissions & will dive on guillotines. He will attack with triangle chokes & arm bars off his back. I highly doubt he will catch Manny Bermudez in a submission unless he really hurts him. He has good cardio & is young and developing. Lopez needs to keep this fight on the feet, and strike with Bermudez. He is much more dynamic, and if he can time a knee, or land a big head kick he could get a knock out.
This is a battle of two undefeated young guns, and a fun striker vs grappler matchup. Manny Bermudez is 2-0 in the UFC, while Benito Lopez is 1-0. The winner of this fight will most likely get a top 15-25 fighter in my opinion. This is one of my favorite fights on the card and I think both of these guys will have solid UFC careers. Benito Lopez is a well-rounded fighter and I think he should have a slight edge on the feet in this matchup. He has a great ground game as well, but he is going against a guy with some of the slickest submissions I have seen, and I think Bermudez will be the more dangerous guy if this fight hits the mat. I don’t see this fight going the distance, so I would think TKO if Lopez wins and a submission if Bermudez wins. But I have to go with the favorite in this spot and favor the guy who I have been slightly more impressed with so far, and that is Bermudez. If he can get the fight to the ground, then I don’t think it will take long for him to lock up a submission so that is what I am going to pick to happen in this fight.
On DraftKings, this is one of the better fights to target with a -280 FDGTD line. I do think this fight finishes early and whoever wins should score highly. I will say my preferred play is Benito Lopez because it will be easier for him to end up on the winning lineup than it will Bermudez. If Bermudez wins with an early sub, then he still has to compete with those other $9k fighters. If Benito wins, then he is almost surely on the winning lineup. I think this is a top 3 fight to target and if you want to go all-in and target both sides I think that is a sharp move. I will try to be overweight on both guys, but I won’t be quite all-in with 50 or more lineups. I don’t like this fight for cash games though because I think both guys have low floors, so get your investment to this fight in GPPs and play it safer with your cash LU.
Winner – Manny Bermudez via 1st round submission
Jimmie Rivera $8,300 vs Aljamain Sterling $7,900
Jimmie Rivera
Age: 29
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135
Reach: 68.5”
Gym: Tiger Schulmann’s MMA
From: New Jersey
UFC Record: 6-1
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -145
Jimmie Rivera vs Aljamain Sterling is a fantastic fight. The winner of this fight will position themselves for a number one contenders match in my opinion. Sterling has been a bit up and down in his UFC career, but has looked fantastic recently. He has won 2 consecutive fights & 4 of 5 overall. Jimmie Rivera has his long winning streak snapped by Moraes but bounced back with a dominant win over John Dodson. Both fighters have their most recent loss by KO to Moraes but are still elite BWs. Jimmie Rivera is a very polished striker out of Team Tiger Schullman with crisp boxing. He prefers to box in combination in the pocket and has hard powerful hooks and straight punches. His hand speed is phenomenal, and he has some of the fastest hands in the division. He has great timing on his straight left to right hook combination. He has nasty inside outside leg kicks, brutalizing the leg of Uriah Faber with them. He has a nasty straight right hand that comes down the pipe with no tell. He keeps his lead hand low and does a great job of countering while stepping back with a jab or check left hook. He likes to throw inside leg kick left hook combination. He will stand right in front of his opponents waiting for them to throw shots, then try to slip or slide back & counter. He is very diligent about constantly moving his head and faking & feinting as he moves forward to make him hard to hit. He does a great job of waiting until opponents get in range and being ready to explode and go first with a combination. He gets over aggressive when he hurts his opponents sometimes and can get wild and wide with his punches in the pocket and has gotten dropped quite a few times in the UFC. He has a tendency to admire his work at times after he lands & get hit when he should be exiting. He looked excellent in his last fight completely nullifying the tricky style of John Dodson and winning a clear decision. He is a very smart, sound fighter, and will stick to a game plan and get the win. He has 4 KO/TKOs in his career, and his two losses are by KO/TKO, and his chin is a bit questionable.
Rivera is a wrestler who doesn’t use his wrestling much in the UFC. He didn’t attempt any takedowns against Pedro Munhoz, Uriah Faber or in his last fight vs John Dodson. Against Alcantara he only attempted and got one takedown late in round 1. He did show off his wrestling against Thomas Almeida after he was hurt. He only has 5 UFC takedowns. He is fairly explosive & has good double leg entries. He is best at getting double legs when he has opponents backed against the cage. Rivera is very physically strong for 135, short & compact with excellent takedown defense. He has 100% takedown defense in the UFC. He rarely over extends or puts himself in a position to be taken down. He needs to have his takedown defense on point for this fight, because Sterling is definitely going to test it. Rivera is going to want to keep this fight on the feet, and strike with Sterling. He definitely has the better boxing technique, and if he can stay composed, keep the pressure on Aljamain and defend the takedowns he will have a solid chance to win.
Aljamain Sterling
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 71”
Gym: Serra Jiu-Jitsu
From: New York
UFC Record: 8-3
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +125
Aljamain Sterling is a scintillating athlete, who seems to be putting it all together. He has strung together back to back upset victories & will be looking for another here vs Rivera. Sterling is much more a grappler, and a back taking specialist. This will be a clash of styles and I don’t expect Sterling to want to strike for long periods of time. Sterling is still much improved as a striker especially with his hands. He still is predominately a kicker. He has a nice front kick to the body & good leg kicks. He likes to throw a lot of round kicks to the head with both legs. He was doing a good job of following up with a right hook after the kicks in his last fight. He is very quick with good lateral movement & forward pressure. He threw a spinning back kick to the head to a knee to the body combination. In close range he doesn’t have much in terms of striking. He will throw an occasional jab & has a good right & left hook. He will throw elbows and spinning back fists. For this fight Sterling needs to be all the way in & connected to Rivera or on the outside. In boxing range, I feel he will get hit with hooks & overhands. On the outside he may have quicker foot speed & try to control range with kicks. To me, Rivera is great at cutting off the cage, and his kicks don’t usually have the power to keep a fighter like Rivera off. I think he should definitely try to grapple in this fight. Sterling isn’t a power striker, and only has two career TKOs. He has a good chin, and only been finished once by KO. Both Rivera & Sterling have recent KO losses to Marlon Moraes.
Sterling has a strong single leg takedown and does a good job of driving through on well-timed double legs. He has decent cage control and can hold opponents there while looking for body locks. He is strong on top. He likes to grapevine the legs and try to slide into mount where, he will put heavy pressure on opponents and land elbows until they give him the back. On the back he is super hard to get off and has excellent control. He is able to lock in a body triangle and really the round is over because they are not getting out. He has great chokes and submissions because he is long for the division. He does an interesting thing where he gets a full nelson position to flatten & tire opponents out. He has very good defensive wrestling and scrambles as well. He will roll for leg locks to get up etc. He has no problem going to the ground with anyone showing that in taking down and having good control of Augusto Mendes who is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in MMA. He has a gas tank that doesn’t tire and will push a hard pace all three rounds. He has 7 submissions in his career & has never been submitted. He still gives up the center of the cage and is fine circling around and getting his back near the fence. Aljamain Sterling is going to need to earn his respect early in this fight. He needs to tag Rivera with some big shots or land a takedown, to slow the forward pressure. I believe Rivera will want to pressure, get in Aljo’s chest, stifle his kicks and land hard punches in close range. Sterling needs to give the illusion he is down to strike, throw some punches in the pocket, then duck under and get a single or double. I could see Sterling getting in on a single leg and pulling guard if he doesn’t have success with traditional takedowns. If Sterling can get into top position, I feel he will be able to possibly find the finish.
I have gone back and forth on this fight and I almost went with the underdog, Aljamain Sterling, to get the job done. I am very high on both these fighters and I think both could contend for the title. Rivera is going to have the way better boxing and he will be the guy throwing the harder shots. Sterling will be looking to work his kicks on the feet, but ultimately, he wants to get this fight to the ground. If he can get takedowns then I think he can win this fight via submission or a decision, if he can get them consistently. However, if this fight stays on the feet I have to give RIvera the edge and he could win via KO or a striking decision. Rivera does have 100% takedown defense in his UFC career so that is what made me side with him. I think he will be able to keep this fight standing and he will be the more active fighter on the feet and he will also be throwing the harder shots. I think he lands something hard along the way that drops Sterling and I think he finishes it up with some ground and pound.
On DraftKings, Rivera is my preferred play. I think he has the higher ceiling and I just can’t see Aljo landing enough takedowns to win this fight on the ground. I will have shares of Aljo just because he is a serious talent and is a live dog, I just can’t picture him scoring well and I think it’s going to be hard to beat Rivera on the feet. If Aljo can’t get takedowns, then I think Rivera is the only one who has a shot of finishing the fight on the feet. He throws a lot heavier and I think he is the quicker fighter with the better all-around standup game. I don’t care for this fight much for cash games and I don’t think it is even a must for GPP. I think if this fight goes all 3 rounds, which Vegas says it should (-300), then the winner might not even 10x their salary. I will be taking a few shots on both guys, but I don’t see me being overweight on either, even though I am picking Rivera by TKO. I am not confident in that pick, but I am going to be heavier on him for that possible outcome.
Winner – Jimmie Rivera via 2nd round (T)KO
Myles Jury $8,800 vs Andre Fili $7,400
Myles Jury
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 73”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: Michigan
UFC Record: 8-3
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
Myles Jury has been very inconsistent in his UFC career. He is a fighter who puts on performances against lower level fighters that make you think he’s elite, but he isn’t. Whenever he is given a top 5-10 fighter he loses. Fili has been in the same boat in his career & it’s really the first time Jury is facing a guy around the same level as him. A loss here for either guy would signify gatekeeper status for the foreseeable future. Jury has a nice jab & strong front kicks to the body. His straight right hand is fast & accurate. He has nice one-twos. He will throw an uppercut right hook combination. Jury has nice jumping knees with good timing on them. Jury isn’t athletic & I feel Fili will have a hand & foot speed advantage. Jury does have power & when he lands clean he can put opponents out. He has 8 KO/TKOs in his career. He has shown a good chin overall in his career but was knocked out for the first time 7 months ago.
Jury is a strong grappler & black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He has good body lock takedowns and will shoot single legs. He is good in the clinch & has nice knees to the body & head. He can get controlled against the clinch himself as well. His best takedown is definitely the body lock. He is very heavy on top & does a great job of passing guard. He will move to half guard & likes to attack with arm triangles. He does a great job of getting to the back & then mount. He will land shots while looking for submissions, floating and transitioning very well. He will throw hard elbows from top position & has good ground & pound. Jury has good cardio & will keep the same pace all 3 rounds. Jury has 5 submissions in his career & has only been submitted one time by Charles Oliveira. Jury needs to be able to catch Fili with straight shots as he moves backwards. He has to have his footwork going in this fight & if he can land straight shots, stand up Fili, then duck under & get on top he has a strong top game.
Andre Fili
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 6-5
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +130
This is a solid fight. Myles Jury & Andre Fili are fighters who both feel like they can compete and defeat the top of division but have fallen short when they’ve gotten the opportunities. Both fighters had recent winning streaks snapped. Andre Fili lost a close split decision to Michael Johnson, while Myles Jury was starched quickly in round one by Chad Mendes. This is another battle between Alliance MMA & Team Alpha Male, so there is that built in rivalry here. Fili is a rangy striker. He has a nice jab & good straight right hand. He will throw hard inside leg, body, & head kicks. He will fake the jab & throw an overhand right. He is good at darting in with a straight punch & angling off immediately. He is always trying to walk opponents into straight punches. He will throw a jab uppercut combination. He has fairly good movement, but he isn’t the most athletic fighter and opponents can cut him off. He isn’t the fastest with his hand speed & opponents can counter with straight faster shots. Michael Johnson was able to land his straight left hand at will in Fili’s last fight. Fili is still durable & will eat shots no problem. He Is dangerous with kicks himself and has 8 KO/TKO finishes. He has been KO/TKOd twice in his career.
Andre Fili is improving as a grappler, and actually has a really nice double leg. He has great timing on it & explodes in quickly. He doesn’t have the best top control, but he will try to jump on the back when opponents try to stand up. He is long & it gives him an advantage in the clinch. He will land nice knees to the head & body and is very hard to take down. He does a good job of framing and throwing knees to the body. On top he isn’t great, he just really holds position. His takedown defense has looked very good recently, he stuffed all of Denis Bermudez’s takedowns. He was able to jump on Michael Johnson’s back and almost lock in a rear naked choke. He isn’t a big submission threat with just 3 in his career. He has been submitted twice himself. Fili has solid cardio & will push through fatigue to get the win. Fili needs to use pressure to get inside of Jury’s kicks, land his shots & exit. I feel Fili can deny the takedown attempts of Jury fairly easily especially in the clinch. I also feel he can possibly land a double leg or two at the end of rounds.
This is a super closer fight. Myles Jury and Andre Fili are both well-rounded fighters with a lot of high level experience. I expect this to be an all-around MMA fight where both have their moments on the feet and on the ground. I don’t see either guy having a big edge in this fight and I think we are going to see a fun 15-minute close decision. With Fili being the +140 underdog, I have to side with him if I am betting this fight. The ground stats for these two fighters are very similar, but on the feet Fili lands 1.12 more significant strikes per minute and I think that pace will be what gets the job done.
On DraftKings, Fili is my preferred play and my favorite underdog of the week. I think the underdogs look a lot better on this card than they did last week, but it’s still hard to pick almost all of them to win outright. I think Fili has the best shot and I will be overweight to him, even though he will likely be the 2nd highest owned underdog. I like him in all formats at that $7.4k price tag and I think a fade on Jury is the move if you are making 10 or less lineups. I think it will be hard for him to 10x+ his $8.8k price tag with a win, and if he does then he is still going to have to compete with that $9k range to get on the winning lineup. I don’t see him being on the optimal lineup, so I will only have a couple shots on him personally. I think Fili is a great cash game option as well because I do think this goes all 3 rounds. Also, because I think he has the best shot at an upset.
Winner – Andre Fili via Split Decision
Vicente Luque $9,400 vs Bryan Barberena $6,800
Vincente Luque
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 7-2
Fight Matrix: 28
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -420
Vincente Luque is a very good prospect. He has shown amazing finishing ability & is coming off yet another brutal knock out win. He is well rounded, but his striking is what is impressive. He is very technical and long for the division, so he uses that by throwing a nice snappy jab and inside and outside leg kicks. He likes to throw a jab to a straight or jab to an overhand combination and if he lands flush he has one punch KO power. He is a good athlete and his hands are very fast and loose and it’s hard to see what he is going to throw next. He will attack with jumping knees when he gets opponents close to the cage. He will attack to the body with hooks and does a good job of mixing up his target and coming in on good angles. He has a hands high, come forward style and does a good job of cutting off the cage and making opponents fight off their back foot. When he gets in the pocket he will unload with overhand rights and straight lefts. He has a good chin and is willing to take a shot to give one. Luque has 7 KO/TKOs, including 4 knock outs in his last 5 wins. He has never been finished with strikes.
Vincente Luque has solid grappling skills, he has good takedown defense and good takedowns against the cage. He will go for singles and doubles against the cage and has decent body locks in the open mat. He has very nice submissions and his chokes are extremely dangerous. He has a nasty darce and anaconda choke. He has good top control and is very active with ground & pound and submissions. He has 6 career submissions & been submitted twice himself. His cardio is very good, and he keeps a heavy pace on fighters. He is a finisher having finished 13 of his 14 wins. He has finished all 7 of his UFC wins. Luque needs to use his forward pressure, cut off the cage & throw his combinations. He should find no problem finding the hittable Barberena.
Bryan Barberena
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Gym-O Tribe
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 44
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +335
Bryan Barberena is a hardnosed fighter, who just loves to scrap. He isn’t training at his usual camp the MMA Lab for this camp, instead electing to stay close to home & train at Gym-O Tribe in North Carolina. I am not sure what kind of bodies he has to work with there, and if had the same level of camp he would at the Lab. Barberena has hard inside leg kicks and will throw powerful hooks & overhands. He is all about forward pressure. He wants to load and deliver power shots in the pocket. He has a nasty right hook & it’s very powerful. He dropped Leon Edwards with a hard uppercut & has good timing on it as fighters’ close distance. Barberena will throw occasional body & head kicks, but he’s not an active kicker. Barberena needs to be inside to be effective & knows it. He is a tough & rugged fighter who will walk opponents down, eat big shots to get inside & give one of his own. He has a great chin & will wear opponents out by staying in their face, taking what they can give and still being there. Barberena has 10 KO/TKOs in his career and has never been finished by strikes in his career.
Barberena is a decent grappler, but not great. He has good clinch work against the cage and can reverse position and work from there with short knees and punches. He doesn’t go for many takedowns himself, but if he does, when he’s on top he has good control and got an arm triangle against Sage Northcutt. He has good takedown defense, especially against the cage, and will land elbows and knees in the clinch while denying the takedowns. He can get taken down, but he never accepts position and always is trying to get back to his feet. He was able to get up multiple times against Colby Covington, who is a premier wrestler in the UFC. He has tremendous cardio, and this is his opportunity to get a win over a big name. He has already fought and beat some decent competition in the UFC with wins over Sage Northcutt, and Warlley Alves. He isn’t a big submission threat with just two career submissions & has been submitted one time. He has finished 3 of his 4 UFC wins and has never been finished in the UFC. This is a tough stylistic matchup for Barberena. Fighters who give Luque problems are movers who will try to pot shot him & then take him down. Barberena is most likely going to fight fire with fire, get in the pocket & see who drops first. I feel Luque is more technical, faster & has more variety. Barberena needs to feel it out early, gauge the power of Luque, and see if he can take the shots. If he can, his best chance is just to make it ugly, get inside, throw bombs, clinch up, dirty box & just try to grind out a win. He also always has the chance to connect with a power shot.
This is my most confident pick of the card and I think Luque dominates this fight anywhere it goes. I expect him to be the better and more dangerous fighter on the feet, but I think he has an even bigger edge on the ground and there is much less danger there as well. I think Luque can win this fight via KO or a unanimous decision, but I see him looking for takedowns and if he can get them then I think he works his way to a submission. I think Bryan Barberena’s only real shot is getting a KO but Luque has never been KO’d in his career.
On DraftKings, Luque will be one of my top plays of the week and I will be locking him into my cash lineup. I think these two fighters are on different levels and Luque is coming off 3 straight wins against guys I would pick over Barberena and he scored over 105 DK points in all of them. I think he has one of the highest ceilings on the card, so I will be overweight to the field on him. I am going to full fade Barberena here because I don’t want to rely on his punchers chance, so I would rather take my shots on other dogs in the low $7k range. If I was making 10 lineups then Luque would probably be in about 7 of them, and he will be one of my highest owned guys.
Winner – Vicente Luque via 2nd round submission
Kron Gracie $9,300 vs Alex Caceres $6,900
Kron Gracie
Age: 30
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Cesar Gracie Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 3 Years 2 Months
Last Five: 4-0 Overall Record
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -330
A Gracie will once again be in the UFC. It has been 9 years since a Gracie fought in the Octagon. Kron Gracie, the son of Rickson will be looking to bring back a little nostalgia to the sport. The last time a Gracie earned a UFC victory was Royce in 1994. Kron has taken over 3 years off, but has beaten a name such as Tatsuya Kawajiri, and has experience fighting in big events & venues in Rizin. He also has been training with the Diaz brothers for years. He will be taking on Alex Bruce Leeroy Caceres, and I am actually happy he is the one to get this matchup. He seems to be a pure martial artist, and I’m sure covets the opportunity to even share the octagon with a Gracie. Kron still looked very green in the stand up, in his last MMA fight vs Kawajiri. He likes to throw a jab straight right hand. He will also slip a jab and throw right hooks or throw a jab to the body to a straight right hand. He had thrown a couple front kicks to the body, but i have seen barely any kicks from him. He doesn’t really set up his punches with feints or fakes & is hittable. He isn’t fast, and kind of a plodder. He is always just looking to close the distance & grab a hold of his opponents. I imagine he has improved his striking over this time off. He is tough & willing to get hit unlike a lot of BJJ fighters. He has no KO/TKOs and that’s not what he’s looking to do. He is 4-0 in his career overall.
Kron Gracie’s Jiu-Jitsu is on another level. He is one of the best pure BJJ fighters in the world. He likes to close the distance into the single collar, and he will throw a lot of uppercuts & hooks to the body. He is excellent at pulling guard and will attempt flying triangles. He is great at getting his legs latched midair to have control of the body & keep opponents on the ground. His guard is phenomenal. He will get a very high guard, offset opponent’s balance, and try take the back while his opponents still have to defend the arm bar & triangle. The ability he has to use his legs to go from guard to the back mount is unbelievable. He will get the arm under the neck even when he doesn’t fully have the back and contort his opponent to get the squeeze. He will transition Nelly down arm bars to leg locks & take the back as well. Once he has the back he is like a boulder. He has super heavy top pressure & will soften his opponents up with heel kicks and punches. He has been in Rizin, where there are no elbows allowed on the ground something I feel he can use in future fights. He has tremendous cardio & is used to fighting a 10 minute first round. He has 4 submissions in his career. Even if his stand-up has really improved he should get this fight to the ground. He should just safely close the distance and pull guard or try to get on top. If he can get Caceres on the ground, there is a high possibility of a submission.
Alex Caceres
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Florida
UFC Record: 9-9-1
Fight Matrix: 84
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +270
Alex Caceres is a long-time veteran of the UFC. He has never been a contender, but he has put on a lot of fun fights. He is coming off a controversial split decision victory in his last fight against Martin Bravo & has won two of his last three fights. He is getting a big opportunity here to get a win over a potential hype train. Bruce Leeroy is known for his flashy striking style throwing a lot of spinning kicks to the body and head, double punches, spinning elbows and just overall being a good, solid athlete. He will throw superman punches. On the outside he has solid lateral footwork, and head movement. He is fast and has some very pretty slips at times. He has a solid body kick and his kicks are good from long range, but when he doesn’t set them up he can get countered with straight punches. I think Caceres has a lot of wasted movement, because he crashes the distance to throw punches. He is not long with his punches and gets caught coming in with shots. He has a very questionable chin getting rocked a lot in recent fights. He took a ton of punishment against Guan Wang. He seems to get better as the fight goes on and has great cardio. He will fight and recover and never quit, he has a bushido spirit. He isn’t a power striker & only has three career KO/TKOs. He has only been KO’d once.
Caceres has improved his grappling over the years, but still eons away from Kron Gracie level. He has decent body lock & reactive double leg takedowns. Against lesser fighters he has good back takes & will attack with rear naked chokes & arm bars. He can get off balanced or get his kicks caught & taken down. He can get taken down pretty easily against the cage. He will try to jump guillotines to defend the takedowns. He has a solid get up game, but he tends to give his back. He was taken down several times in his last fight via Martin Bravo. He has been submitted more than a few times in his career & the UFC is obviously trying to give Gracie a winnable matchup. He has been submitted 5 times in his career. He has 6 submissions himself. He has had 19 UFC fights, and in my opinion on the back nine of his career. He needs to have a hell of a performance in this fight. Keep the fight on the feet, try to use movement & straight punches and keep Gracie on the outside. If he throws kicks, he needs to make sure to really set them up, so they don’t get caught. If he can make this a 15-minute standup fight, he should have an edge.
Kron is the son of Rickson Gracie and the grandson of Helio Gracie, the family who created Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. To me, this looks like a setup fight for him to get a win in his UFC debut and if this fight hits the mat even once then I think he gets it. Alex Caceres has been submitted 6 times in his career and he isn’t so great on the feet that he can easily finish it there, or even keep it there. I think Gracie shoots for takedowns early and often and if he can complete them then he will win this fight with a submission. I expect him to finish this fight in the first round and look very impressive doing it.
On DraftKings, Gracie is for sure my preferred play. I think he is one of the safest plays on the card and I think he has one of the best chances for a 1st round finish. My only real concern is his ceiling. I don’t see him striking much at all on the ground so it’s really just takedown points and advances that we would be working with, and that is if he doesn’t just lock up a sub immediately. I think he is good for 95-100 DK points here, but I don’t see him having that 120+ ceiling that other fighters in the $9k range could get. I think Caceres is an easy fade, especially with 20 or less lineups. I really don’t see him having much of a shot in this matchup and I think Gracie is a solid play in all formats.
Winner – Kron Gracie via 1st round Submission
Cynthia Calvillo $9,200 vs Courtney Casey $7,000
Cynthia Calvillo
Age: 31
Height: 5’4
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 12
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -320
Calvillo has good movement and tries to work behind a jab and straight right hand. She does a decent job of countering with her right hand and moving her head off center line. She has a nice check left hook in the pocket. She will throw occasional leg kicks, but she is not much of a kicker. She tends to get flat footed when she tries to throw combinations, and will stand right in front of opponents, and get hit. She was able to take the shots of a powerful girl in her last match & has fought multiple fighters who are now at 125. She is a tough girl and has a good chin. She has Two TKOs in her career and has never has been finished.
She is a great BJJ practitioner, and very dangerous on the ground. She is amazing in scrambles, and her flexibility makes her able to end up in dominant positions. She isn’t a great wrestler, or even a very active seeker of the takedown, but she definitely will need to be in this matchup. She did have a nice duck under off an Esparza overhand and was able to get a nice double leg takedown. She will try to get the single collar tie, and then shoot the takedown from there, but overall, she isn’t a great wrestler. On top she is strong, but if opponents are safe she seems to not be extremely active. She likes to use small ground and pound, and make opponents make a move where she can scramble to dominant position. Her takedown defense is not great, but off her back is where she is most dangerous. She has very dexterous legs, and she’s able to use them to offset balance and create scrambles, where she can take the back, or lock in a choke. She has great back takes, showing that with a slick submission over Amanda Cooper. She also has nice triangles and arm bars and works quickly on the mat for the submission. She has two rear naked chokes in her career. She has good cardio and can go hard for three rounds. I see Calvillo using a ton of movement, trying to evade and stay safe on the feet, and just try to find a moment to duck under and take Casey to the mat.
Courtney Casey
Age: 31
Height: 115
Weight: 5’7
Reach: 67”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Hawaii
UFC Record: 4-5
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +260
Casey is a brawler who has been hit or miss so far in her UFC career. She has taken a lot of short notice fights, but she is getting a full training camp for this matchup, and we should see the best version of her. She is a tough girl, but a bit basic in her attack. She is flat footed and likes to wait for opponents and try to counter with big punches when they close the distance. She has good low leg kicks but doesn’t throw them often. She has good hand speed and a nice straight right hand and check left hook. She throws good right hook left hook combinations when opponents close the distance. She has a nice uppercut. She will throw occasional kicks to the body & likes to follow with a straight right hand after. She doesn’t have much range striking & prefers to fight in a phone booth. She is one of the bigger girls in the division & hits hard but doesn’t have big KO power. She has 3 career KO/TKOs. She has never been finished by strikes.
Casey is a good Jiu-Jitsu player, but a poor wrestler. She likes to clinch up with opponents & throw offense from the plum clinch. She will throw nice elbows & knees but can be taken down in those positions. She doesn’t go for takedowns and only has 3 career UFC takedowns. Her takedown defense is virtually nonexistent, and I think that could cost her here. She has 24% takedown defense in the UFC, she has been taken down 19 times in 9 fights. She is facing the most dangerous submission artist, she’s ever fought, and needs to try to stay off her back as much as possible. She was able to show off a nice up kicking game & beat up the legs & body of Jessica Aguilar while being on her back. She is a brown belt in BJJ & has some skills on the ground. She is very good off her back with triangles & arm bars. She was able to sweep Randa Markos & get a belly down arm bar. She will attempt guillotines from bottom as well. When she gets in top position, she will look to take the back & get a submission. Casey has 3 career submissions & been submitted once herself. This is a fun fight, because it’s the first time Calvillo is going to be tested on the ground. She has not fought very high-level Jiu-Jitsu fighters, and I feel Casey is the best she’s ever fought. I do still believe Casey’s best chance to win this fight is staying upright. She needs to come forward, and not allow Calvillo to back her up. She needs to use smart pressure, not chase, stay disciplined & at her range. She is going to have a 3” reach advantage, and she needs to use that to land kicks & punching combinations, that keep Calvillo on the outside.
This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Courtney Casey will be looking to keep this fight on the feet, and if she can then she should win. However, she does not have great takedown defense and Calvillo will have a big edge on the ground. I don’t think Casey has the power to finish this fight standing, so I have to favor Calvillo here because she should be able to consistently land takedowns and she might only need one to work her way to a submission. Her edge on the ground is much bigger than Casey’s edge on the feet and if she can’t pull off a submission then she should win a clear 30-27 with takedowns and top control throughout the fight. If Casey can keep this fight standing for a good amount of the fight then she can steal a decision here. The fights are in her home town and she does strike at the higher pace. I think she is live in that case, but that is hard to rely on Calvillo standing long enough for it to come into play.
On DraftKings, Calvillo is my preferred play, but not by much. Casey is the cheapest I really would want to go on DraftKings, so she is in play for that reason and if she can go 3 rounds maybe she can get 25-30 points in a loss. I think she is a better cash game play for that reason, but I will have my shares in GPP as well. I think Calvillo has one of the top 3 ceilings on the card though, so she is a solid play in all formats and could get up to that 120+ range that could take 1st in a GPP. This is a fight I will look to get in half or more of my lineups and both sides are playable in cash.
Winner – Cynthia Calvillo via Unanimous Decision
Paul Felder $8,200 vs James Vick $8,000
Paul Felder
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Pennsylvania
UFC Record: 7-4
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -105
Paul Felder has been showing the best form of his career since going to Roufousport. On the feet he is technical. He has a nice jab, and left hook. He will throw nice straight right hands. He has a nice one-two. Felder likes to throw a right hand to the body to a left hook combination. He will throw hard roundhouse kicks to the body and step in knees. He will throw a knee to the body to a straight left combination. He will load up to throw brutal leg kicks. He has great spinning techniques, with spinning back fists and spinning heel kicks. He will throw spinning back elbows, and front elbows. He definitely has power, but I wouldn’t call him a knock out artist.
Felder is a dangerous grappler. He has shown he is good in all facets, his clinch game is strong, and he has great knees to the body and head and some of the best elbows in the business. He dropped Stevie Ray with a massive knee in the clinch, and then followed up with devastating elbows to finish him. He finished Oliveira with the same nasty G&P elbows after surviving a lot of deep submission attempts. He has some of the nastiest ground and pound along with Jeremy Stephens in a long time. Felder is going to have to get inside & clinch, as the elbows will be dangerous for Vick. He has good takedown defense & get up game. He attacked with an arm bar when he was taken down by Perry. He can get beat up in the clinch with elbows himself & was finished via cut against Trinaldo due to that. Felder needs to close the distance & throw more than one. Vick can usually avoid the first shot rather easily but gets hit with the second. He dodged the left hook of Gaetchje but the overhand right that followed landed flush. Felder doesn’t normally strike in long combination & it will be something he has to change to win this fight. I think getting Vick against the cage in the clinch, landing elbows and trying to attack off the break could also be effective.
James Vick
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight: 155
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Lloyd Irving
From: Texas
UFC Record: 9-3
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
James Vick is a huge 155er and is going to have a 6” reach advantage again in this fight. He cuts an insane amount of weight, and said it affected his last performance, but he doesn’t want to give up his ranking at LW. When I hear something like that it really makes me question how diminished Vick is coming into the cage. Vick has good movement & throws nice long shots. He has a good jab both to the head & body, and a nice straight right hand. He will throw one twos down the middle. He does a good job of doubling up on the jab. He will also feint the jab & throw the straight right hand. He has a decent left hook. He knocked Joe Duffy out with a nasty uppercut, as he closed the distance. He will throw nice inside outside leg kicks along with front kicks to the body & head. He will throw sidekicks to the body & head as well. He will throw a nice spinning back kick to the body and can go high with it too. He will throw nice step in knees to the body & head. He has strong flying knees as well. He likes to dart in with a straight right hand or straight left to straight right combinations & angle off. He has good lateral movement, and distance control. He will slide back & land straight rights, and his counters are usually the shots that hurt opponents. He can back himself up to the cage too much & he has a tendency to stand very tall after he gets hit. Justin Gaetchje was able to exploit that, land a huge overhand right and knocked him out cold. It was a devastating knock out, and you have to questions Vick’s chin at this point. He throws a heavy volume of strikes & has a great style to win decisions. He has 4 KO/TKOs in his career, but 2 in his last 3 wins so he’s finding his power. He has been KO/TKOd 3 times in all 3 of his losses.
Vick is a great grappler. He has good takedown defense, and if opponents do take him down he is extremely dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu and has very good get ups. He has excellent chokes, guillotines, darces, anacondas, and is very dangerous on the mat. He is strong in the clinch landing nice knees & elbows. He is hard to take down there as well because of his height. He has 5 career submissions & never been submitted in his career. I doubt this fight will hit the ground & it will most likely be a stand-up fight. He has great cardio & can go all three rounds easy. Vick is going to want to keep the same style he always has, move, use his length & throw volume. He’s going to want to land kicks, straight punches, keep Felder on the outside & try to catch him with a hard shot. Vick has never wrestled in his UFC career, but it is possible he maybe wants to try to take Felder down, and work his Jiu-Jitsu.
James Vick is going to try to bounce back from an absolutely brutal KO. He finally got the chance he wanted taking on Justin Gaetchje and getting a main event and dropped the ball. You have to imagine where his mindset is at after being so confident and getting taken out like that. Paul Felder is coming off a loss to Mike Perry, but he still has won 3 in a row at 155 lbs. He also broke his arm in the Perry fight, so who knows how it would have went down if that didn’t happen.
A couple days ago Vick was the underdog in this spot. Now the line has flipped, and he is the slight favorite. I agree with the line movement and he is my pick for this fight. I think he should be around a -125 favorite here so if the line gets much higher than that then the value would be on Paul Felder. I think this fight is most likely going to stay standing for the majority of the fight and if it does hit the ground then I would give a slight edge to Vick. I think on the feet it is a close fight and Felder is probably more likely to get a knockout. But, if this fight goes to a decision I expect the boxing from Vick to be the deciding factor. I think he will use his size and his jab to his advantage in this fight and frustrating Felder. I see him playing it safe and not getting into any brawls with Felder. If he can avoid the KO, then I think Vick gets his hand raised.
On DraftKings, Vick is my preferred play, but I think he is a better cash play than GPP play. If Vick wins I see it being by a decision with maybe 10x his salary. I am ok with that, but I don’t see him having that 100+ potential so I will be limiting my GPP exposure. I think the DK value on him makes him playable in cash though and since I am not picking many underdogs on this card I will have some GPP lineups as well since I am picking him to get his hand raised. Felder, I think is actually the better GPP play because if there is a KO in this fight then I think he would be the one to get it. I think he has the higher ceiling where he could hit 100+ points and I think with the betting line flipping we should see lower ownership on him as well. I will likely be underweight to both sides in GPP but I will have a couple lineups with each. If you are making 10 or less lineups I think you should just take a stand and only use one of the two or fade the fight altogether.
Winner – James Vick via Unanimous Decision
Cain Velasquez $9,000 vs Francis Ngannou $7,200
Cain Velasquez
Age: 36
Height: 242
Weight: 6’1
Reach: 77”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 12-2
Fight Matrix: NR (Inactivity)
Last Fought: 2 years 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
Cain Velasquez as a striker is a skilled boxer. He is a quicker, smaller heavyweight & uses it well to get inside. He will bob & weave, whiling keeping his jab out there & slipping shots. When he can get this close, fighters always have to be aware of the level change & it allows him to land his strikes easier. He has a nice straight right hand, both as a lead & slip counter. Velasquez has a powerful overhand right and can hurt opponents badly if landed clean. He does a great job of faking level changes, forcing opponents to drop their hands and coming over the top with shots. Velásquez is a solid kicker & I see him trying to utilize that in this matchup. He should throw a lot of leg kicks & circle early not get in the danger zone of Ngannou. He can throw the leg kicks with no set up at times and needs to be extremely careful not to get countered. He is very athletic & has nice fluid head kicks after combinations. He also showed off a spinning heel kick to the head against Travis Browne. Velasquez does tend to take a couple shots to get inside, and there is a possibility he gets knocked out here. The longer this fight goes, Velasquez becomes more & more likely to win. He has 12 KO/TKOs himself & can definitely close the show.
Velasquez is an incredible grappler, and arguably the greatest HW grappler of all time. He does a great job of pressuring opponents backs to the fence, where he really can go to work. He will get opponents off balance with the striking, to disguise his clinch entries & takedowns very well. Once he gets into the clinch, he is super active. He does a great job of keeping a steady stream of dirty boxing, punches & knees. He does an excellent job of breaking, throwing a hard combination, reshooting in & putting opponents against the fence again. This type of fight is grueling & you slowly see his opponents wilt under the pressure. He is a two time All American college wrestler, and undoubtedly the best wrestler in the division. Velasquez has a nice double leg & he uses it to come up and get the body lock takedown as well. His best takedown is the single leg, much like DC he is excellent at it. Velasquez can wrestle all day & will chain attempts together until he can finally put opponents on their back. Once on top Velasquez’ pace is incredible. He is always raining down ground & pound while moving to dominant positions. He will just slowly, systematically break opponents down. His constant work rate makes it hard for opponents to find times to stand up, and he can get fighters to just quit and give up in a position. Velasquez is a black belt in BJJ, so he is definitely well versed on the mat, but he isn’t a submission threat. He will look for guillotines, but he will never give up position for them. Obviously, no one wants to be under a fighter like Francis Ngannou, but I would be shocked if Ngannou got top position, unless he dropped him. Cain has 0 career submissions and been submitted one time. He has unbelievable cardio, and he needs to use that to his advantage here. He needs to be careful early, circle, throw kicks, and try to weather the early barrage of Ngannou. If he can get out of the first round, I think he will just need one takedown, in the remaining 4 rounds to really sway the fight. I feel if Cain gets him down one time and can do damage & control him I could see Ngannou gassing & checking out mentally.
Francis Ngannou
Age: 32
Height: 6’4
Weight: 259
Reach: 83”
Gym: MMA Factory
From: France
UFC Record: 12-3
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +140
Ngannou leapt back onto the radar with a knockout of Curtis Blaydes in under a minute after two poor performances. Ngannou is a scary dude and probably the most powerful one-shot striker in the UFC. He isn’t extremely technical, but he is patient, and does a good job of picking his shots. He likes to walk fighters down and wait for them to throw so he can counter. He will throw out a jab, and actually uses it from both stances. He likes to slip punches in close range, and counter with huge hooks and uppercuts. He does an excellent job of timing his counter right uppercut, and it is one of the most devastating punches in UFC history. He likes to throw a right or left hook to uppercut combination. He will occasionally throw leg and body kicks, and his kicks are very powerful. I don’t see him trying to throw many kicks here against a great wrestler in Cain. Fighters should probably look to strike from the outside against Ngannou, low kick, throw jabs and move, something Velasquez normally doesn’t do. Ngannou has a great chin and took some massive shots from Stipe Miocic and seemed unfazed. He has never been finished with strikes. Obviously, power is the name of the game for Francis Ngannou, and he has 7 KO/TKO wins.
Ngannou is a poor grappler, and that was really exposed in his Stipe Miocic fight. He isn’t an offensive wrestler, and I have yet to see him attempt a takedown or try to initiate the clinch in the UFC. In the clinch Ngannou’s pure physicality makes him hard to deal with. He is extremely strong and does a good job of reversing position when opponents jam him against the cage, and land shots of his own. He has pretty solid initial takedown defense. He has a good overhook he uses to yank up his opponent, and they have to be weary of the uppercut whenever they’re looking to get him down. Ngannou isn’t terrible off his back. He does a good job of digging under hooks and exploding back to his feet, as well as using a modified version of the butterfly guard to offset the balance of his opponent and stand back up. Ngannou has some odd submissions in his career. He had a nasty kimura on Anthony Hamilton, literally ripping him to the ground with it in the clinch, and a nasty straight arm bar from mount in another fight I saw. He has 3 career submissions, and never been submitted himself. He gasses out very badly, and once he’s tired his bottom game goes out the window, and he can be taken down easily. Ngannou is going to need to be more aggressive in this match. He can’t let Velasquez back him up and get in on his legs. He needs to be moving forward and throwing, throw the jab, the right and left cross and a lot of uppercuts. He should be throwing uppercuts repeatedly as Velasquez level changes and make him think twice about shooting. He landed a nice overhand right, on the temple of Blaydes as he came in & it didn’t even land clean, but it’s all he needs to finish the fight. The later this fight goes the better for Velasquez, so if I’m in Ngannou’s corner I want to see an early finish.
This is an amazing fight. Cain Velasquez, who some people regard as the best HW of all time is finally making his return. It is his first fight since July 2016, and he’s fought 5 times since 2012. He will be taking on Francis Ngannou, who is a newer fighter to come on the scene. He wasn’t around when Cain was reigning at HW, and it’s an interesting matchup. Francis Ngannou is a very scary striker and he has the power to KO anyone. Cain Velasquez was the main event when UFC debuted on FOX back in 2011 and he ended up losing that fight via KO. Now, he is the main event on the debut for ESPN and he is facing another heavy-handed striker. So, that is the worry here. However, I think it is only a worry for about 6 minutes of the possible 25. Cain is going to set a pace that Francis has never seen before and if Cain can land takedowns then he should dominate this fight and wear Ngannou down in the process. If Cain can make it out of round 1, which I expect him to, then I think Ngannou is only live for another minute or so of the fight before Cain drags him into deep water. I don’t see Ngannou being able to last 5-rounds with Cain, so I think he gets TKO’d along the way. I think Cain lands takedowns early and uses his heavy top game and ground and pound to tire out Ngannou and then I think he finishes him between rounds 2 and 4. A few days ago Cain was around -235 on the betting line and that was a little too high for my liking. But I think if we can get him under -200 then he is a good play and I had to take a 1u shot at -182. As long as he can avoid the early KO, he should win, and he should win impressively.
On DraftKings, Cain is my preferred play of the two, but this is a great all-in fight. If you are multi-entering in GPPs then you need exposure to both sides of this fight. The winner is very likely to be in the 1st place lineup and it will be hard for them not to. If Ngannou wins, it will be an early KO with 100 or more points. That will for sure put him on the 1st place lineup. However, Cain averages 6.38 sig strikes landed per minute and he averages 5.15 takedowns in 15-minutes. That is a crazy pace and if he still has that in him, then he is DraftKings gold. He is older and injury prone now, so it is harder to totally trust him, but I will be heavier exposed to Cain and I think he has the highest ceiling on the card. If I was making 10 lineups, then I would probably go 7 Cain and 3 Ngannou.
Winner – Cain Velasquez via 3rd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
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